General Election 20 GalwayWest

Snow Garden · 17-01-2020 8:40pm

lion_bar wrote: »

One could argue he has an unsuccessful track record, and that O'Reilly has a successful record having been elected on the first count in LE, plus now has the experience gained working in the council for her constituents.

Yeah but O'Reilly only got elected 9 months ago. 1,304 FPVs was decent but she's not well known and unproven. If she gets a seat in GE20, it will be an amazing achievement. I would think 8th would be a great result for her. Best of luck to her, could be a great bet if you think she has a chance.

Cheshire Cat · 17-01-2020 8:41pm

lion_bar wrote: »

One could argue he has an unsuccessful track record, and that O'Reilly has a successful record having been elected on the first count in LE, plus now has the experience gained working in the council for her constituents.

Less than a year in office isn't really a lot of experience. I like her, but think she should have waited until she had served one term as a local councillor to have a proven track record.

what_traffic · 17-01-2020 9:14pm

So many City candidates that I can only predict 3/5 who are all actually based outside of the City. The final two seats are going to be fascinating.

O Cuiv is on the wane within FF itself(if FF go into Gov he wont make the front bench), will be interesting to see how Ollie Crowe does as a result. His location in Connemara helps him though. O Cuiv will hover up votes in North and South Connemara/South Mayo
"Build the Bypass Ring Road". Ollie is going for votes outside of the City with that slogan, trying to appeal outside his City Centre stomping ground thats whom the Ring Road is for really; the rural-urban voters 10/15km around Galway City.
I believe Kyne is far safer than Hildegard for FG - geography the main reason.
Hildegard is going to leak votes to the Greens I suspect in the City. This is the big FG worry nationally, in any urban constituency where they have 2 seats.
SF Mairead Farrell? Dont see any progress for them after the poor performance in the locals
She has a core SF vote, but is based in the City; will transfer very poorly - dont think she will do as well as Trevor Ó Clochartaigh did in 2016 (he was 4th after 1st count)
Labor - Niall McNelis -> Labor are weak in the City based on the last local election Cannot see them making progress.
They are competing with Soc Dem and former Labor candidates like Independent Catherine Connolly who is going to transfer well.
Soc Dem - mistake for Niall Ó Tuathail not to run in the locals, he wont do as well as he did in 2016. Green candidate . Pauline O'Reilly ran in the City Local election is going to benefit from this.
Aontú - dont know anything about the candidate.
Mike Cubbard - City Mayor, should do a bit better than last general election
Noel Grealish - will he do as well on the 1st count as last time - cannot see him transferring as well as last time though.

2020 general election
O Cuiv
Kyne
Grealish

For the final two seats, could be any combination of the following.
Ollie Crowe
Catherine Connolly
Hildegarde Naughton
Pauline O'Reilly

what_traffic · 17-01-2020 9:18pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_West_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2020_general_election

Stewball · 17-01-2020 10:07pm

what_traffic wrote: »

2020 general election
O Cuiv
Kyne
Grealish

For the final two seats, could be any combination of the following.
Ollie Crowe
Catherine Connolly
Hildegarde Naughton
Pauline O'Reilly

I don't think we'll see 2 FF, 2 FG and Grealish. I hope not anyway.

I think it will be Hildegarde or Crowe and Connolly.

zell12 · 17-01-2020 10:28pm

what_traffic wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_West_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2020_general_election

Nominations still open until noon on the 21st.
what_traffic would look pretty good on a Galway ballot paper:)

Arghus · 17-01-2020 11:17pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think the opposite. O'Tuathail has a track record already (3,455 FPV 2016) but the Green candidate is a complete newbie.
I don't think Greens have a hope in hell here.

I can't see O' Tuathail doing particularly well. I've nothing against him, but until I saw his face on posters again over the last few days I'd nearly forgotten all about him - and I gave him a vote last time out. Maybe I'm wrong, but the SD feel like a new thing that has had their moment. I don't think they've capitalised on trying to grab people's attention over the last few years.

O' Reilly is new enough in the game, but I don't think her profile is any lesser than O' Tuathail really. I've certainly seen her name pretty regularly in local news and whatnot. I agree that The Greens doing okay locally and in the Europeans doesn't mean that any of that will translate into General Election success - a lot of people won't vote Green no matter what - but I think she has an outside chance. Like, well outside, but we will see.

spurshero · 18-01-2020 1:24am

Arghus wrote: »

I can't see O' Tuathail doing particularly well. I've nothing against him, but until I saw his face on posters again over the last few days I'd nearly forgotten all about him - and I gave him a vote last time out. Maybe I'm wrong, but the SD feel like a new thing that has had their moment. I don't think they've capitalised on trying to grab people's attention over the last few years.

O' Reilly is new enough in the game, but I don't think her profile is any lesser than O' Tuathail really. I've certainly seen her name pretty regularly in local news and whatnot. I agree that The Greens doing okay locally and in the Europeans doesn't mean that any of that will translate into General Election success - a lot of people won't vote Green no matter what - but I think she has an outside chance. Like, well outside, but we will see.

I think a lot of people feel he should have ran for the locals and served his time as such . Like This of going straight to the Dail and being minister for health seems a bit pie in the sky to me . I gave him the 2 the last time but he won’t be as high up this time

18-01-2020 7:15am

Was walking by one of Hildegard Naughton's posters last night and saw that they must be reusing them from the last election as they've just put some yellow tape over John O' Mahony's name at the bottom which makes complete sense. Makes me wonder if they should stop putting the vote for x as your 2nd preference on the bottom of posters as it must make it much more unlikely that you'd be able to reuse them in another election

18-01-2020 7:24am

Also saw that Niall McNelis is using one of the shops on Mainguard street as a campaign office (would love to know how much it cost). The branding on the front is huge, its like having a billboard on one of the busiest streets in Galway, it will be interesting to see if it pays off.

what_traffic · 18-01-2020 9:23am

Stewball wrote: »

I don't think we'll see 2 FF, 2 FG and Grealish. I hope not anyway.

I think it will be Hildegarde or Crowe and Connolly.

Agree 100%, will be guaranteed one "Left" Seat. Was not sure on the order in my last post.
Catherine Connolly will probably get the 4th seat.

pure.conya · 19-01-2020 5:06pm

Geuze wrote: »

Correct 100%.

I would love if a politician had the guts to simply speak the truth.

That's all we ask - the truth.

ya good luck with that lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAS0c5AkiNg

Triangle · 20-01-2020 10:29am

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think the opposite. O'Tuathail has a track record already (3,455 FPV 2016) but the Green candidate is a complete newbie.
I don't think Greens have a hope in hell here.

He had 3455 FPV during a time when people wanted something different. The mood has changed since then and there are stronger candidates running now.
He won't get the same number of FPV.

?Cee?view · 20-01-2020 5:52pm

Geuze wrote: »

As there are no direct flights from Africa to Ireland (other than Morocco I think, and maybe Addis?), then all African AS are bogus, as you should claim asylum in the first country.

The underlined wording (my underlining), is a common trope spouted by thinly veiled racists such as those who favour Grealish. Doesn't seem to matter to them that it's not true.

Snow Garden · 20-01-2020 6:02pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

My prediction is
1. O'Cuiv
2. Grealish
3. Naughton
4. Connolly
5. Not sure - I'd like to see Niall O'Tuathail get it perhaps.

After mature recollection I am going to change my prediction.

1. Grealish (Ind)
2. O'Cuiv (FF)
3. Kyne (FG)
4. Connolly (Ind)
5. O'Tuathail (SD)
========
6. Naughton (FG)
7. Crowe (FF)
8. O'Reilly (Green)

Wombatman · 20-01-2020 6:29pm

I think The Greens will get the 5th seat.

1. Grealish (KKK)
2. O'Cuiv (FF)
3. Connolly (Ind)
4. Kyne (FG)
5. O'Reilly (Green)
========
6. Naughton (FG)
7. O'Tuathail (SD)
8. Crowe (FF)

Triangle · 20-01-2020 6:43pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

After mature recollection I am going to change my prediction.

1. Grealish (Ind)
2. O'Cuiv (FF)
3. Kyne (FG)
4. Connolly (Ind)
5. O'Tuathail (SD)
========
6. Naughton (FG)
7. Crowe (FF)
8. O'Reilly (Green)

With the SDs on 0% in the recent B&A connacht/ulster poll and the greens on 9% I think you might be a bit deluded.
Have you spoken to many people on where they'll vote?

Bredabe · 20-01-2020 7:17pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/referendum-tracker, a bit dated now, but a reminder of who had the gooleys to declare up front for repeal.
This law will be reviewed in the lifetime of the incoming govt.

bonaparte2 · 20-01-2020 7:38pm

Bredabe wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/referendum-tracker, a bit dated now, but a reminder of who had the gooleys to declare up front for repeal.
This law will be reviewed in the lifetime of the incoming govt.

Hildegarde had the gooleys, Kyne didn't .

Snow Garden · 20-01-2020 9:07pm

Triangle wrote: »

With the SDs on 0% in the recent B&A connacht/ulster poll and the greens on 9% I think you might be a bit deluded.
Have you spoken to many people on where they'll vote?

Small polls like that (900 people) are not really relevant for small parties like the SDs who do not have a candidate in many constituencies.
We'll see but I think O'Tuathail will go a long way but to be honest there are 4 or 5 people that could take the 5th seat.

Ipsos poll has Greens down at 3%

Connacht-Ulster:
FF 34, SF 26, FG 22, Greens 3, Labour 0

SF at 26% but they haven't a hope of a seat in Galway West.

ClanofLams · 21-01-2020 2:33am

1 O’Cuiv
2 Grealish
3 Kyne
4 O’Reilly
5 Crowe
6 Connolly
7 Naughton

Don’t really like my predictions but that’s what I think. Particularly hate Grealish at 2. Can’t see O’Cuiv not topping it, O’Mahony not running should help him a lot and he’s topped it comfortably for a few elections now regardless.

Think Connolly and O’Reilly will be tight for ‘left’ seat, O’Reilly might be bit more transfer friendly which could make the difference.

Don’t see much reason to believe there won’t be three seats between FF and FG. Last seat could go either way but based on polls so far and local elections results, FF might have advantage.

what_traffic · 21-01-2020 10:31am

ClanofLams wrote: »

1 O’Cuiv
2 Grealish
3 Kyne
4 O’Reilly
5 Crowe
6 Connolly
7 Naughton

Don’t really like my predictions but that’s what I think. Particularly hate Grealish at 2. Can’t see O’Cuiv not topping it, O’Mahony not running should help him a lot and he’s topped it comfortably for a few elections now regardless.

Think Connolly and O’Reilly will be tight for ‘left’ seat, O’Reilly might be bit more transfer friendly which could make the difference.

Don’t see much reason to believe there won’t be three seats between FF and FG. Last seat could go either way but based on polls so far and local elections results, FF might have advantage.

Thats the nature of the electoral beast. O’Mahony not running should benefit O Cuiv and perhaps Kyne?
Do Sean Kyne and Hildegarde Naughton have a map drawn up where they Canvass?

jr86 · 21-01-2020 10:50am

ClanofLams wrote: »

1 O’Cuiv
2 Grealish
3 Kyne
4 O’Reilly
5 Crowe
6 Connolly
7 Naughton

Don’t really like my predictions but that’s what I think. Particularly hate Grealish at 2. Can’t see O’Cuiv not topping it, O’Mahony not running should help him a lot and he’s topped it comfortably for a few elections now regardless.

Think Connolly and O’Reilly will be tight for ‘left’ seat, O’Reilly might be bit more transfer friendly which could make the difference.

Don’t see much reason to believe there won’t be three seats between FF and FG. Last seat could go either way but based on polls so far and local elections results, FF might have advantage.

He actually came second in first preferences 2011 to Nolan but got in first on transfers. But he will top it for sure, with Grealish comfortably second. Kyne should get 3rd and all to play for after that. A lot of talk of Crowe

Snow Garden · 21-01-2020 12:24pm

jr86 wrote: »

A lot of talk of Crowe

Yeah I hear he is going to build the bypass with his own bare hands.

spurshero · 21-01-2020 12:44pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yeah I hear he is going to build the bypass with his own bare hands.

Good one . You should be on stage in the town hall .

Bullocks · 21-01-2020 3:12pm

what_traffic wrote: »

Thats the nature of the electoral beast. O’Mahony not running should benefit O Cuiv and perhaps Kyne?
Do Sean Kyne and Hildegarde Naughton have a map drawn up where they Canvass?

I think they have a line drawn somewhere but it's not always adhered to. The last time anyway.

zell12 · 21-01-2020 5:37pm

Nominations closed today, anyone see a full list of candidates?
Or hear when local radio debates are on?

Bredabe · 21-01-2020 6:26pm

Bullocks wrote: »

I think they have a line drawn somewhere but it's not always adhered to. The last time anyway.

Had canvassers call for hildegard when I was in houses in salthill and knocknacarra,
canvassers for what's his name in moycullen, I hear he had a team in maam as well.

Snow Garden · 21-01-2020 6:46pm

Bredabe wrote: »

Had canvassers call for hildegard when I was in houses in salthill and knocknacarra,
canvassers for what's his name in moycullen, I hear he had a team in maam as well.

Sean Kyne.

He is doing very well on the poster front. He was out of the traps quick. He knows FG will probably only get one seat.

zell12 · 21-01-2020 7:06pm

PaddyPower odds 21/01/2020
Cuív Ó Éamonn 1.13
Grealish Noel 1.14
Kyne Séan 1.20
Connolly Catherine 1.25
Naughton Hildegarde 1.57
Crowe Ollie 2.50
O'Reilly Pauline 3.50
Cubbard Mike 4.00
Farrell Mairead 7.00
McNelis Niall 9.00
O'Tuathail Niall 13.00
O'Flaherty Darragh 26.00
Loughnane Joe 34.00
Burke Conor 41.00
O Corcoran Cormac 51.00

General Election 20 GalwayWest

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