General Election 20 GalwayWest

45mhrc7evo1d3n

Whereisgalway wrote: »

Catherine “for the common good” Connolly will struggle. Main thing she did was highlight her cronyism by give her sister her CC job

I once emailed Catherine Connolly, Hildegarde Naughton and Sean Kyne about a particular issue that was due to be debated in the dail. Catherine Connolly was the only one who responded and very promptly at that. I have no particular policitical leanings but I expect my TDs to represent their constituents in the Dáil so I was impressed with the response. The lack of response from the other two indicated to me that they have no particular interest in the views of their constituents. I also think Catherine has done fantastic work on the PAC.

Bredabe

Snow Garden wrote: »

But like...what does this even mean??



I honestly have no idea what you or the FG TD is saying. Rebuilding what? Were they saying they are not going to pay the national debt? banking debt?
.

You will need to be clearer, I dont follow what you are asking.

spurshero

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

I once emailed Catherine Connolly, Hildegarde Naughton and Sean Kyne about a particular issue that was due to be debated in the dail. Catherine Connolly was the only one who responded and very promptly at that. I have no particular policitical leanings but I expect my TDs to represent their constituents in the Dáil so I was impressed with the response. The lack of response from the other two indicated to me that they have no particular interest in the views of their constituents. I also think Catherine has done fantastic work on the PAC.

you have no policitical leaning but just want to get the point across that catherine connolly was the only one to respond to your email while at the same time having a dig at 2 others . amazing then that you also think that catherine has done some fantastic work . lol . is that you catherine?

45mhrc7evo1d3n

spurshero wrote: »

you have no policitical leaning but just want to get the point across that catherine connolly was the only one to respond to your email while at the same time having a dig at 2 others . amazing then that you also think that catherine has done some fantastic work . lol . is that you catherine?

Is that you Hildegarde???

45mhrc7evo1d3n

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Grealish will top the poll!

Surely that's not going to happen after his recent disgusting xenophobic and racist remarks?

basillarkin

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Surely that's not going to happen after his recent disgusting xenophobic and racist remarks?

He won't top it but he won't be far off.

Dank Janniels

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Surely that's not going to happen after his recent disgusting xenophobic and racist remarks?

Thats exactly what will get him elected! "Hes speaking the truth! You cant say anything about any1 these days etc etc". Rural Ireland is angry +will lean to the right.

Whereisgalway

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

I once emailed Catherine Connolly, Hildegarde Naughton and Sean Kyne about a particular issue that was due to be debated in the dail. Catherine Connolly was the only one who responded and very promptly at that. I have no particular policitical leanings but I expect my TDs to represent their constituents in the Dáil so I was impressed with the response. The lack of response from the other two indicated to me that they have no particular interest in the views of their constituents. I also think Catherine has done fantastic work on the PAC.

Far fair to her or her secretary for replying to you, I alway think the very least a public rep can do.

Snow Garden

Bredabe wrote: »

You will need to be clearer, I dont follow what you are asking.

Ok.

Please explain in your words what you think the FG TD meant by this statement...

FG TD in the same area let slip that they have No interest in rebuilding the losses to the country caused by FF

Wompa1

I'll probably go for Mike Cubbard. If nothing else, he's very busy at making himself present around the city.

flazio

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Ya. Unless you're a close friend to either of those TDs, I can't imagine they let those lines slip out intentionally.
Or, you could name and shame.

Big legal issues for boards if the forums go down the slander and bitching route.

spurshero

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Is that you Hildegarde???

Certainly not ! She won’t be in my top 5!

Bredabe

Snow Garden wrote: »

Ok.

Please explain in your words what you think the FG TD meant by this statement...

Given the context and with the evidence of time passing, I think he meant that they had no notion of putting money into the health system or rebuilding houses/flats, like previous governments had. Things that had been lost in the recession and restructuring of the sw system.

Tho it was the lack of concern about the people impacted by these cuts and our reactions as voters was the most telling aspect of the comment.

Snow Garden

Bredabe wrote: »

Given the context and with the evidence of time passing, I think he meant that they had no notion of putting money into the health system or rebuilding houses/flats, like previous governments had. Things that had been lost in the recession and restructuring of the sw system.

Tho it was the lack of concern about the people impacted by these cuts and our reactions as voters was the most telling aspect of the comment.

ok thanks.

Arghus

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Surely that's not going to happen after his recent disgusting xenophobic and racist remarks?

That's what is going to get him the votes. Unfortunately.

jr86

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Surely that's not going to happen after his recent disgusting xenophobic and racist remarks?

Haha, if only life was that simple.

He'll absolutely romp home.

Sure he'll absolutely hoover up votes in Carnmore and Claregalway obviously, and he was a big supporter of the Renville GAA project for Oranmore/Maree GAA - raising it in the Dail with the Taoiseach - so he'll absolutely clean up in these areas too (which he has done to date in any case).

Geuze

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Surely that's not going to happen after his recent disgusting xenophobic and racist remarks?

I don't know what was said exactly, but to say bogus AS are not welcome is perfectly fine, and not bad.

I will say it again and again.

Bogus AS are not welcome in Ireland, and should be deported asap.

I will ask any canvassers do they agree with this reasonable statement.

Now, his second statement, about the funds being transferred abroad, the stats aren't great there, so I'd say his figures were incorrect.

However, an interesting point is that after we gave refugee status to "people fleeing persecution" from west Africa, lo and behold, they go there on holiday the following year!!!!!

I'm happy to see some TDs state the truth - bogus AS are really economic migrants.

I want politicians to speak the truth, not hide behind political correctness.

45mhrc7evo1d3n

Geuze wrote: »

I don't know what was said exactly, but to say bogus AS are not welcome is perfectly fine, and not bad.

However, an interesting point is that after we gave refugee status to "people fleeing persecution" from west Africa, lo and behold, they go there on holiday the following year!!!!!

The issue is with assuming all asylum seekers are bogus. And it is only an assumption unless the person making that statement has researched the personal circumstances of every asylum seeker out there.

Same with your allegation that asylum seekers returned to west Africa for holidays. Where is the research or stats to support this? I'd be willing to bet there is none.

Geuze

All the evidence is that the vast majority of AS are bogus.

The facts are there to see, printed and published by State agencies.

For years, it is well known that the vast majority of AS are bogus, they are in fact economic migrants.

And we can have a more mature debate once we accept the facts.

The bogus AS are often men from Asia, who enter into sham marriages, again widely reported.

Or recently, many bogus AS are from Albania and Georgia, again widely reported, and stated by the Taoiseach.




(Note that I am not referring to the 3,00-4,000 genuine refugees that have come here under various programmes, they are welcome)

Geuze

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Same with your allegation that asylum seekers returned to west Africa for holidays. Where is the research or stats to support this? I'd be willing to bet there is none.

You are correct here, as of course we don't track people's foreign travel.

Snow Garden

jr86 wrote: »

Haha, if only life was that simple.

He'll absolutely romp home.

Sure he'll absolutely hoover up votes in Carnmore and Claregalway obviously, and he was a big supporter of the Renville GAA project for Oranmore/Maree GAA - raising it in the Dail with the Taoiseach - so he'll absolutely clean up in these areas too (which he has done to date in any case).

Grealish's core vote around Carnmore/Claregalway will stay for sure but he will pick up a lot more votes in Oughterard and Connemara.
I am curious to see how O'Cuiv's massive FP vote (15%) stacks up this time around. I have a sneaky suspicion that Grealish might poll higher than O'Cuiv.

45mhrc7evo1d3n

Geuze wrote: »

... it is well known that the vast majority of AS are bogus, they are in fact economic migrants.

Again, the assumption there is that economic migrants are "bogus". Irish people have been economic migrants for many years. There can hardly be a family in Ireland who doesn't have relatives who emigrated for economic reasons. I think most right-minded people would prefer that their family members weren't referred to as "bogus" by the countries they chose to travel to seeking better lives for themselves.

WallyGUFC

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Again, the assumption there is that economic migrants are "bogus". Irish people have been economic migrants for many years. There can hardly be a family in Ireland who doesn't have relatives who emigrated for economic reasons. I think most right-minded people would prefer that their family members weren't referred to as "bogus" by the countries they chose to travel to seeking better lives for themselves.

There is nothing wrong with genuine asylum seekers fleeing conflict. I also personally don't think there is anything wrong with an economic migrant, someone coming from abroad to work, better themselves and offer their skills to society. Once they have skills to offer and have gone though the appropriate channels regarding visas and all that, then come on in.



The issue in my eyes is economic migrants gaming the asylum system to get into the country illegally. When you read articles on these people complaining that Direct Provision is worse than prison, you can be fairly sure they're bogus. I'd rather be in Direct Provision than in a warzone.

Geuze

Roberto Whining Dandelion wrote: »

Again, the assumption there is that economic migrants are "bogus". Irish people have been economic migrants for many years. There can hardly be a family in Ireland who doesn't have relatives who emigrated for economic reasons. I think most right-minded people would prefer that their family members weren't referred to as "bogus" by the countries they chose to travel to seeking better lives for themselves.

The difference is that when most Irish emigrate, they legally immigrate to another country.

Yes, members of my own family legally emigrated to the USA.

There are some Irish illegal immigrants in the USA, and they should be dealt with as the law allows.

I accept legal immigration into Ireland, e.g. EU immigrants, medical doctors, etc.

I reject the illegal immigration by the bogus AS.

Many tear up their documents between the plane and the GNIB/INIS desk.

Before anybody asks for proof - this is all reported in the news.

1641

WallyGUFC wrote: »

There is nothing wrong with genuine asylum seekers fleeing conflict. I also personally don't think there is anything wrong with an economic migrant, someone coming from abroad to work, better themselves and offer their skills to society. Once they have skills to offer and have gone though the appropriate channels regarding visas and all that, then come on in.
The issue in my eyes is economic migrants gaming the asylum system to get into the country illegally. When you read articles on these people complaining that Direct Provision is worse than prison, you can be fairly sure they're bogus. I'd rather be in Direct Provision than in a warzone.

I would not agree with all your points (eg, I don't think think that distinguishing between asylum seekers and economic migrants is always so clear-cut, and I think that complaints about at least some aspects direct provision centres is valid, although I do not oppose it in principle).

However, I do not have a problem with a TD, or anyone else, raising concerns about the asylum process. I am not doubting that it can be exploited. But I do have a concern about a TD raising it in such a dog-whistle manner, simply labelling African asylum seekers as "bogus" and "spongers" off the system. For someone who rarely speaks in the Dail, he then quoted World Bank figures which he knew to be guesstimates (or would have known if it had suited his agenda to do so). He knew exactly what he was doing and, no doubt, stirring up easy division will reap him some rewards electorally. It will likely make no difference but I will put every other candidate in the election higher in my vote simply on the basis of his crude cynicism.

Geuze

WallyGUFC wrote: »

The issue in my eyes is economic migrants gaming the asylum system to get into the country illegally. When you read articles on these people complaining that Direct Provision is worse than prison, you can be fairly sure they're bogus. I'd rather be in Direct Provision than in a warzone.

Correct 100%.

I would love if a politician had the guts to simply speak the truth.

That's all we ask - the truth.

Geuze

1641 wrote: »

However, I do not have a problem with a TD, or anyone else, raising concerns about the asylum process. I am not doubting that it can be exploited. But I do have a concern about a TD raising it in such a dog-whistle manner, simply labelling African asylum seekers as "bogus" and "spongers" off the system. For someone who rarely speaks in the Dail, he then quoted World Bank figures which he knew to be guesstimates (or would have known if it had suited his agenda to do so). He knew exactly what he was doing and, no doubt, stirring up easy division will reap him some rewards electorally. It will likely make no difference but I will put every other candidate in the election higher in my vote simply on the basis of his crude cynicism.

His figures on the remittances were probably wrong, good estimates are very difficult to get.

As there are no direct flights from Africa to Ireland (other than Morocco I think, and maybe Addis?), then all African AS are bogus, as you should claim asylum in the first country.

This has been going on for years, remember the famous case of Pamela Izevbekhai:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/1m-legal-bill-after-pamela-and-girls-finally-deported-26753400.html

spurshero

Indo has a small section on it today . It seemed to think o cuiv and Kyne are safe . And that naughtoun Grealish and Connolly will be under threat from Crowe and o Reilly . It gave remote chances to o tuaihll and o Reilly . I think Grealish will get in comfortably though .

spurshero

spurshero wrote: »

Indo has a small section on it today . It seemed to think o cuiv and Kyne are safe . And that naughtoun Grealish and Connolly will be under threat from Crowe and o Reilly . It gave remote chances to o tuaihll and o Reilly . I think Grealish will get in comfortably though .

Should have said remote chances to otuaihll and Farrell . Not Oreilly .

Geuze

I'm hearing Greens have a better chance than SD.

ben.schlomo

Don't see how Crowe or Farrell would have any chance really.

Arghus

Greens definitely have a better chance than SDs. But I wouldn't put money on either of them.

biko

Geuze et al, keep it to local politicians and local politics.
Do not let this thread descend into a debate on immigration please

On second though, Geuze, don't post until Monday

Snow Garden

Arghus wrote: »

Greens definitely have a better chance than SDs. But I wouldn't put money on either of them.

I think the opposite. O'Tuathail has a track record already (3,455 FPV 2016) but the Green candidate is a complete newbie.
I don't think Greens have a hope in hell here.

zell12

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think the opposite. O'Tuathail has a track record already (3,455 FPV 2016) but the Green candidate is a complete newbie.
I don't think Greens have a hope in hell here.

Greens ran four newbies for councillors in the locals covering GW and three (O'Reilly, O'Connor, McKinstry) got elected. Unexpected and very transfer friendly too.

ClanofLams

Would partially agree with Indo. O’Cuiv is home, Kyne too. Would say Grealish will be safe even though I have no time for him and he gets away with all sorts of nonsense. He missed almost as many days as the Healy raes in terms of voting when that story broke few months ago and then claimed some sort of nonsense, that he had agreement with Fine Gael to miss votes to make up for a TD of theirs that was missing. Then his spokesperson could give no examples of this when requested, was a very suspicious story, don’t understand why local media didn’t go to town on it, think there was one small piece in Connacht Tribune.

After that i see a four way scrap between Naughton, Connolly, O’Reilly and Crowe with perhaps the two non TDs having the advantage. Great green vote in the local elections and O’Reilly seems strong candidate. Don’t agree with everything Catherine Connolly says but she’s admirable in lot of ways. But O’Reilly will really hurt her base in the West and might pull more than her elsewhere.

Galway West always returns three TDs from the traditional parties, maybe that will change this time but I doubt it. Naughton needed John O’Mahonys transfers last time to get her over the line, won’t have that luxury this time. Fianna Fáil got the largest vote in both City and County locals so think Crowe has the edge.

Don’t see SF featuring at all. Nor Soc Dems, voted for O’Tuathail last time but they had a poor local elections and think he made mistake not running. He’ll do alright in City but once you pass City boundaries, will be non entity.

Snow Garden

zell12 wrote: »

Greens ran four newbies for councillors in the locals covering GW and three (O'Reilly, O'Connor, McKinstry) got elected. Unexpected and very transfer friendly too.

Yeah I know but local elections are not really reflective of Dail elections. They are a lazy vote.
People are happy to have Greens in the council getting little done but a TD is a different kettle of fish. I guess we will see but if O'Reilly, for example, says we need more public transport instead of the bypass, she is toast. I see Crowe already going after the bypass vote. He won't get in either imho. Rightly or wrongly the politicians don't seem to be talking about green issues or climate change so far. Its all crime, HSE and housing so far.

ClanofLams

zell12 wrote: »

Greens ran four newbies for councillors in the locals covering GW and three (O'Reilly, O'Connor, McKinstry) got elected. Unexpected and very transfer friendly too.

McKinstry only registered to run a month in advance too, think he was running mainly so they would have a candidate, don’t think he thought he had a chance.

Stewball

I think the Greens might struggle to hold their local election votes for the general.

They're almost certain to make up the numbers for FF or FG to form a government and that will put off some of their voters.

lion_bar

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think the opposite. O'Tuathail has a track record already (3,455 FPV 2016) but the Green candidate is a complete newbie.
I don't think Greens have a hope in hell here.

One could argue he has an unsuccessful track record, and that O'Reilly has a successful record having been elected on the first count in LE, plus now has the experience gained working in the council for her constituents.

Snow Garden

lion_bar wrote: »

One could argue he has an unsuccessful track record, and that O'Reilly has a successful record having been elected on the first count in LE, plus now has the experience gained working in the council for her constituents.

Yeah but O'Reilly only got elected 9 months ago. 1,304 FPVs was decent but she's not well known and unproven. If she gets a seat in GE20, it will be an amazing achievement. I would think 8th would be a great result for her. Best of luck to her, could be a great bet if you think she has a chance.

Cheshire Cat

lion_bar wrote: »

One could argue he has an unsuccessful track record, and that O'Reilly has a successful record having been elected on the first count in LE, plus now has the experience gained working in the council for her constituents.

Less than a year in office isn't really a lot of experience. I like her, but think she should have waited until she had served one term as a local councillor to have a proven track record.

what_traffic

So many City candidates that I can only predict 3/5 who are all actually based outside of the City. The final two seats are going to be fascinating.

O Cuiv is on the wane within FF itself(if FF go into Gov he wont make the front bench), will be interesting to see how Ollie Crowe does as a result. His location in Connemara helps him though. O Cuiv will hover up votes in North and South Connemara/South Mayo
"Build the Bypass Ring Road". Ollie is going for votes outside of the City with that slogan, trying to appeal outside his City Centre stomping ground thats whom the Ring Road is for really; the rural-urban voters 10/15km around Galway City.
I believe Kyne is far safer than Hildegard for FG - geography the main reason.
Hildegard is going to leak votes to the Greens I suspect in the City. This is the big FG worry nationally, in any urban constituency where they have 2 seats.
SF Mairead Farrell? Dont see any progress for them after the poor performance in the locals
She has a core SF vote, but is based in the City; will transfer very poorly - dont think she will do as well as Trevor Ó Clochartaigh did in 2016 (he was 4th after 1st count)
Labor - Niall McNelis -> Labor are weak in the City based on the last local election Cannot see them making progress.
They are competing with Soc Dem and former Labor candidates like Independent Catherine Connolly who is going to transfer well.
Soc Dem - mistake for Niall Ó Tuathail not to run in the locals, he wont do as well as he did in 2016. Green candidate . Pauline O'Reilly ran in the City Local election is going to benefit from this.
Aontú - dont know anything about the candidate.
Mike Cubbard - City Mayor, should do a bit better than last general election
Noel Grealish - will he do as well on the 1st count as last time - cannot see him transferring as well as last time though.

2020 general election
O Cuiv
Kyne
Grealish


For the final two seats, could be any combination of the following.
Ollie Crowe
Catherine Connolly
Hildegarde Naughton
Pauline O'Reilly

what_traffic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_West_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2020_general_election

Stewball

what_traffic wrote: »

2020 general election
O Cuiv
Kyne
Grealish


For the final two seats, could be any combination of the following.
Ollie Crowe
Catherine Connolly
Hildegarde Naughton
Pauline O'Reilly

I don't think we'll see 2 FF, 2 FG and Grealish. I hope not anyway.

I think it will be Hildegarde or Crowe and Connolly.

zell12

what_traffic wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_West_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)#2020_general_election

Nominations still open until noon on the 21st.
what_traffic would look pretty good on a Galway ballot paper:)

Arghus

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think the opposite. O'Tuathail has a track record already (3,455 FPV 2016) but the Green candidate is a complete newbie.
I don't think Greens have a hope in hell here.

I can't see O' Tuathail doing particularly well. I've nothing against him, but until I saw his face on posters again over the last few days I'd nearly forgotten all about him - and I gave him a vote last time out. Maybe I'm wrong, but the SD feel like a new thing that has had their moment. I don't think they've capitalised on trying to grab people's attention over the last few years.

O' Reilly is new enough in the game, but I don't think her profile is any lesser than O' Tuathail really. I've certainly seen her name pretty regularly in local news and whatnot. I agree that The Greens doing okay locally and in the Europeans doesn't mean that any of that will translate into General Election success - a lot of people won't vote Green no matter what - but I think she has an outside chance. Like, well outside, but we will see.

spurshero

Arghus wrote: »

I can't see O' Tuathail doing particularly well. I've nothing against him, but until I saw his face on posters again over the last few days I'd nearly forgotten all about him - and I gave him a vote last time out. Maybe I'm wrong, but the SD feel like a new thing that has had their moment. I don't think they've capitalised on trying to grab people's attention over the last few years.

O' Reilly is new enough in the game, but I don't think her profile is any lesser than O' Tuathail really. I've certainly seen her name pretty regularly in local news and whatnot. I agree that The Greens doing okay locally and in the Europeans doesn't mean that any of that will translate into General Election success - a lot of people won't vote Green no matter what - but I think she has an outside chance. Like, well outside, but we will see.

I think a lot of people feel he should have ran for the locals and served his time as such . Like This of going straight to the Dail and being minister for health seems a bit pie in the sky to me . I gave him the 2 the last time but he won’t be as high up this time

Was walking by one of Hildegard Naughton's posters last night and saw that they must be reusing them from the last election as they've just put some yellow tape over John O' Mahony's name at the bottom which makes complete sense. Makes me wonder if they should stop putting the vote for x as your 2nd preference on the bottom of posters as it must make it much more unlikely that you'd be able to reuse them in another election

Also saw that Niall McNelis is using one of the shops on Mainguard street as a campaign office (would love to know how much it cost). The branding on the front is huge, its like having a billboard on one of the busiest streets in Galway, it will be interesting to see if it pays off.