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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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Comments

  • #422
    ddarcy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 589 ✭✭✭ddarcy


    Phoebas wrote: »
    That's a real cop out.
    It's the job of the government, not the opposition, to manage the economy and they have the entire civil service at their disposal to manage risks to it.

    It's true that the government don't control the world economy, but they do control how we deal with what it throws at us. FF made a complete mess of that.

    Have we all forgotten that week when the IMF arrived in town and FF cabinet ministers were lying through their teeth to us about it?

    I agree it’s a cop out, but ireland is directly influenced by the USA and the UK. What killed us last time is the pound massively devalued and the Irish people who were massively being ripped off went north. The dollar fell as well killing tourism and jobs as salaries ended up being too much to justify in the US.

    The question is what has FG done to not have this factor in again? The answer: nothing.

    We still have a high cost here making us susceptible to the dollar and pound devaluing. Which the euro will lag behind in. This could take 10-15 billion out of the economy because no one wants to go b after the high costs of doing business and locking in Ireland. Until a party tackles this, we will be stuck in the potential problem. The pound will devalue because of brexit and of the us economy starts to falter, they will devalue as well.


  • #423
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,117 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Sinn Féin's housing strategy.

    2 issues: how many billions would this cost and also I thought given past experience with council estates that 100% ghettos were no longer a good thing.
    Sinn Féin's Eoin Ó Broin, meanwhile, will outline his party's plans to deliver 100,000 public homes, on public land, over the next five years.


    The party also plans a three-year rent freeze

    Apartment building will grind to a halt. They aren't even building anywhere near enough apartments at the moment.
    a referendum to enshrine the rights of housing into the Constitution and a package of housing reforms.

    A right to a house. Ponder that for a moment.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0120/1108518-election-campaign/

    Is the government going to buy out my mortgage because i'd have a constitutional right to a house?

    What about immigrants? All would have a constitutional right to a house once they get citizenship. Come on in world!

    Will the right to a house be at 18 years of age? Is that when the keys and deeds are handed over?

    Do these people think before they come up with this?


  • #424
    KevRossi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,572 ✭✭✭KevRossi


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Sinn Féin's housing strategy.

    2 issues: how many billions would this cost and also I thought given past experience with council estates that 100% ghettos were no longer a good thing.

    100,000 homes at €200,000 will cost €20 billion. Minus returns on VAT, income tax, not having to pay social welfare etc. etc.

    Will take 2 years to get planning and some groundworks, so almost all of those houses will be built over a 3 year period.

    Not going to happen.


  • #425
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    KevRossi wrote: »
    100,000 homes at €200,000 will cost €20 billion. Minus returns on VAT, income tax, not having to pay social welfare etc. etc.

    Will take 2 years to get planning and some groundworks, so almost all of those houses will be built over a 3 year period.

    Not going to happen.

    If in doubt go big. Is it any wonder, natural antipathy aside, why other parties will not entertain SF in government? Expect the minimum wage to go up to €21K as part of their plan and overall spending plans to be north of €100bn.


  • #426
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    I'd be happy if whatever government stopped assisting private builds rather than any rent freeze. Let the housing industry operate like any other business. If a shop is selling too high and nobody can afford the goods, they need lower prices or go out of business. Thems the breaks.
    Charge vulture funds and other property speculators higher taxes to discourage them taking advantage of the crisis. Stop the LA/state buying 25 year leases.
    Build.

    Nice to see that while we've record breaking numbers of children homeless we've the fifth most billionaires per capita in the world. Seems like things are grand.

    I see FF are going to throw more money at consultants and get more nurses/doctors. Can't see it helping much TBH.


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  • #427
    scheister
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭scheister


    KevRossi wrote: »
    100,000 homes at €200,000 will cost €20 billion. Minus returns on VAT, income tax, not having to pay social welfare etc. etc.

    Will take 2 years to get planning and some groundworks, so almost all of those houses will be built over a 3 year period.

    Not going to happen.

    allow for current building taking place which i think is 10,000 per year therefore year 3-5 80,000 need to be build or 26,666 house per year.

    Do we have the workers to build this
    Do we have public land to build the houses

    I have not seen the breakdown between social/affordable rent/ affordable buy but even at 50/25/25 i think that would cause issues to the lower end of the market. Why pay 250-300k for a house from a private builder when you get one for less then 250 from the state.


  • #428
    Chips Lovell
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,276 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Do these people think before they come up with this?

    Oh they do think alright. O'Broin is many things, but he isn't stupid. He knows well that Sinn Fein will either not be in government or won't be the majority party in government, which means he can promise anything safe in the knowledge that he won't have to follow through on it. He's got nothing to lose.


  • #429
    Gunmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,067 ✭✭✭Gunmonkey


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Is the government going to buy out my mortgage because i'd have a constitutional right to a house?

    What about immigrants? All would have a constitutional right to a house once they get citizenship. Come on in world!

    Will the right to a house be at 18 years of age? Is that when the keys and deeds are handed over?

    Do these people think before they come up with this?

    So do we have to call dibs on houses then?

    Because Im calling Áras an Uachtarain if so!


  • #430
    facehugger99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,831 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Do these people think before they come up with this?

    They won't ever have to actually implement any of it.

    The policy is designed to attract the hard of thinking into voting for them, nothing more.


  • #431
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    They won't ever have to actually implement any of it.

    The policy is designed to attract the hard of thinking into voting for them, nothing more.
    I think it's an attempt to solidify the vote on the left in one single entity. They all know the tide has gone out somewhat on that brand of anger politics.


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  • #432
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,780 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Well as recently as 2001 they canned Bull Island in an obvious FF protection measure. I feel its become a lot less egregious since, and we can some stuff like Joe Duffy falling over himself to try remember not to push FF.


  • #433
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,957 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Sinn Féin's housing strategy.

    2 issues: how many billions would this cost and also I thought given past experience with council estates that 100% ghettos were no longer a good thing.

    Apartment building will grind to a halt. They aren't even building anywhere near enough apartments at the moment.

    A right to a house. Ponder that for a moment.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0120/1108518-election-campaign/

    Is the government going to buy out my mortgage because i'd have a constitutional right to a house?

    What about immigrants? All would have a constitutional right to a house once they get citizenship. Come on in world!

    Will the right to a house be at 18 years of age? Is that when the keys and deeds are handed over?

    Do these people think before they come up with this?

    It's a curious one alright. A "right" is something the government can uphold and protect, so we have the justice system and courts to protect people's right to life, to vote, to conduct their business in a legal fashion etc.

    But the only way a government could uphold a "right" to a house is to just give them a house. There's no other way it could be interpreted.

    And as you say, it presumably applies to every single citizen so once you turn 18 you're on the waiting list for a free house? Can a husband and wife claim for 2 houses?


  • #434
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    But the only way a government could uphold a "right" to a house is to just give them a house. There's no other way it could be interpreted.
    Well, there are plenty of ways for things to be interpreted in constitutional terms.

    For example, if you look at the articles on the place of women in the home, one interpretation is that the state is obliged to ensure that no woman "needs" to work outside the home.

    Any "right" to a home in the constitution would depend on the wording. In the rare event that some proposal did get through, it would most likely be watered down to a vague reference to the state doing everything within reason to ensure that everyone has a permanent roof over their heads.

    The right to housing is already enshrined as a fundamental human right in many places that the state is legally bound to recognise and uphold. The notion of adding it to our constitution is utterly redundant, but it plays well against SF's target demographic, who view politicians as Scrooge-esque evil tycoons hellbent on sucking everyone dry.


  • #435
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    There's another poll going to be published tonight at 10pm by the times, this one is an IPSOS MRBI one, it will be interesting to see if it differs wildly from the one that was published early morning yesterday.

    Will it throw the other one into doubt, or will we see a pattern/trend emerging i wonder.


  • #436
    ForestFire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,971 ✭✭✭ForestFire


    We were discussing housing in work today and we came up with a proposal to tackle some of the issues and improve things. We are basing this on Galway which for its population provable has a high student percentage.


    Okay so this first point is there will be some heavy initial investment and then long term payback for the Government/3rd level institutions.

    Proposal:-

    - 3rd level institutions are required to provide full time accommodation for all enrolled students.
    - This should be provided as Flats or Doors type accommodation in isolated units.
    - Where possible they should be located on or close to the grounds of the collage and in most cases these bodies have land available for these buildings to go on.
    - Accommodation will be assigned by the collage/Uni to the students for a defined fee, that is calculated on market rate (Country wide average), but set at the percentage much lower so it is affordable and the same no matter what location you study (Some sort of means testing, or grants could be introduced if required for Higher and lower earners)


    Some advantages:-
    - Student accommodation is taken out of the private landlord area.
    - Know and set free for students and no panic searches
    - Students in one area as community and easier to support their needs, e.g security etc.
    - City accommodation is freed up for the "Normal" Rental market
    - Previous student accommodation, where landlords exploit this group (We know it happens) end and the QTY, quality of type of rent will improve, where every room in the house is not filled with students.
    - Investment in the accommodation for students is repaid as an affordable and sustained way back to the government, while also being both affordable and controlled by the State/Colleges/UNIs


  • #437
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,780 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Better quality poll (IPSOS) out tonight. If this doesn't show the huge swing the B&A can be dismissed, if it does...

    Edit: missed the previous post on this.


  • #438
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    And Virgin Media announce a leaders debate on Wednesday night at 9 30 PM.

    Sinn Fein are excluded.


  • #439
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,673 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    L1011 wrote: »
    Better quality poll (IPSOS) out tonight. If this doesn't show the huge swing the B&A can be dismissed, if it does...

    Edit: missed the previous post on this.

    Yeah the Ipsos poll is the one to watch, it was the most accurate in 2011 and 2016.


  • #440
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,019 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    And Virgin Media announce a leaders debate on Wednesday night at 9 30 PM.

    Sinn Fein are excluded.

    And not at all happy about it.


  • #441
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    And not at all happy about it.

    Quite rightly.


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  • #442
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,019 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    The opinion poll out at 10pm will be important as I think some people put too much stock in the poll which had FF 12 points ahead of FG. Now if the poll tonight which was done between Thursday and Saturday of the week just gone shows anything similar to the last poll then yes the last poll gets more weight to it. If this poll is more in line with the other polls than the last one will be seen as an outlier.


  • #443
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    And Virgin Media announce a leaders debate on Wednesday night at 9 30 PM.

    Sinn Fein are excluded.

    The fact that sf are being excluded I would love it if it backfired in more support for sf lol.


  • #444
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Billcarson wrote: »
    The fact that sf are being excluded I would love it if it backfired in more support for sf lol.
    That won't show up in this poll, if at all.


  • #445
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Matt Barrett wrote: »
    Quite rightly.
    In that they are not there, sure. In that it will be one party v the other in the government not so much. I imagine that's the call they made. All candidates/parties can arrange their own appearances but have no absolute right to be invited to any of these things. I think the image of multiple people shouting at each other is unwieldy and a very poor spectacle .


  • #446
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Here's the TV debate schedule. Jan 30th looks like a brawl!

    https://www.thejournal.ie/leaders-debate-virgin-media-one-4972205-Jan2020/


  • #447
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    is_that_so wrote: »
    In that they are not there, sure. In that it will be one party v the other in the government not so much. I imagine that's the call they made. All candidates/parties can arrange their own appearances but have no absolute right to be invited to any of these things. I think the image of multiple people shouting at each other is unwieldy and a very poor spectacle .

    Considering the similarities between FF and FG and the point that they were essentially coalition partners in the current government a debate between the two is more of a show of sibling rivalry than a debate.
    There should have been three at a minimum. There's an argument for picking a random 4th too as we see in some other countries with many parties running.
    SF are right to be miffed.


  • #448
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Matt Barrett wrote: »
    Considering the similarities between FF and FG and the point that they were essentially coalition partners in the current government a debate between the two is more of a show of sibling rivalry than a debate.
    There should have been three at a minimum. There's an argument for picking a random 4th too as we see in some other countries with many parties running.
    SF are right to be miffed.
    They'll be in most of the rest of them. I find debates where the stage is full uninformative and the rules make them soundbytes.


  • #449
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    Billcarson wrote: »
    The fact that sf are being excluded I would love it if it backfired in more support for sf lol.

    Stranger things have happened, look at the Wolfe Tones getting to no 1.


  • #450
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,780 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    McMurphy wrote: »
    Stranger things have happened, look at the Wolfe Tones getting to no 1.

    If you're referring to A Nation Once Again a few weeks ago - they got to number 29 - they were briefly number 1 on one single music vendor; that's all. It also didn't enter the UK top 40 at all. Media hype built up about something actually quite minor.

    They actually had two Irish #1s in the 70s and 80s if you were talking about those of course!


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  • #451
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    L1011 wrote: »
    If you're referring to A Nation Once Again a few weeks ago - they got to number 29 - they were briefly number 1 on one single music vendor; that's all. It also didn't enter the UK top 40 at all. Media hype built up about something actually quite minor.

    They actually had two Irish #1s in the 70s and 80s if you were talking about those of course!

    No I was referring to "Come out you Black and Tans" getting to No1 in the iTunes charts, which was the public's response to Charlie and Co wanting to commemorate the RIC.

    Come Out Ye Black And Tans is number 1 in Irish and UK iTunes charts


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