General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 01:13AM

No bounce for the Greens either.

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 01:14AM

If those figures keep rising , FF could end up with 65 to 70 seats.

Water John · 19-01-2020 01:15AM

No if FF + Lb + Gr + Soc Dems is over 80, that's what MM will go for.

Sir Oxman · 19-01-2020 01:16AM

The article suggests the RIC thing really damaged FG.

"The dramatic poll result, probably influenced by the row earlier this month over the planned commemoration of the Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC), suggests there was a 12-point gap between the two biggest parties just as the taoiseach asked President Michael D Higgins to dissolve the Dail early last week.

Paschal Donohoe, the finance minister, yesterday claimed Fine Gael knew it would be coming into the campaign as “underdogs”, because the last government that served three terms in office “blew up the economy” in its effort to secure that third term.

Donohoe insisted his party was prepared to fight an election coming from behind in the polls, and said it would engage with voters on homelessness, health and other difficult issues, and not focus exclusively on the success of the economy and the threat of Brexit.

Satisfaction with the government is down three points to just 30% and satisfaction with the taoiseach’s performance is also down three to 35%. Micheál Martin, Mary Lou McDonald and Brendan Howlin all enjoy a slight rise in their personal ratings.

While Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were neck and neck on 27% in The Sunday Times/B&A poll last month, the 12-point gap opened between the two parties after the RIC/Black and Tans controversy, while there was no statistically significant shift in support for any of the other parties.

Sinn Fein is down one to 19%, the Green Party is up one to 7%, and Labour is down two to 4%. The Independent Alliance is up one to 3%, Solidarity/People Before Profit is down one to 2%, the Social Democrats are unchanged on 1%, Renua is up one to 1%, and other independents are up one to 10%.

The poll was conducted in a series of face-to-face in-home interviews with 923 eligible Irish voters on January 2-14. The margin of error is 3.3%. The sample was largely complete before the taoiseach laid out his reasons for calling the election last Tuesday.

Speculation about a possible February election and the outcome of post-Christmas meetings between Varadkar and Martin was live during the polling window."

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 01:17AM

If Fine Gael fall as low as 20% it will be a far greater wipe-out than the 2002 General Election. They fell to 31 seats then on 22.5% of the vote.

They're running far too many candidates to be only polling at 20%. They will be praying this poll is an outlier.

KevRossi · 19-01-2020 01:19AM

It won't stay like this. FG had a bad week with the crime, housing crisis, the guy being injured in the tent removal and everyone sharing the pic of the old lady eating outside the shop window.

Their biggest issue is Varadker and they can't get rid of him, he was always a sound bite and social media politician who has proven himself to be worthless as a minister (see his stint in health). Media went soft on him for years as he was alwyas good for a comment either directly or a a @source close to the government'.

This is peaking far too early for FF; there will be a backlash, many people do not want to see them in power again. So I'd expect FG to rise in polls over the next 3 weeks and FF to fall. By how much they move is the next question. Will be fun to see FG squirm over the next few days though.

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 01:19AM

Leo has a popularity problem.

A lot of the general public just don't like him.

What is it with FG and unpopular leaders?

boardise · 19-01-2020 01:21AM

Does anyone have the percentage for 'Don't knows' ?

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 01:23AM

KevRossi wrote: »

It won't stay like this. FG had a bad week with the crime, housing crisis, the guy being injured in the tent removal and everyone sharing the pic of the old lady eating outside the shop window.

Their biggest issue is Varadker and they can't get rid of him, he was always a sound bite and social media politician who has proven himself to be worthless as a minister (see his stint in health). Media went soft on him for years as he was alwyas good for a comment either directly or a a @source close to the government'.

This is peaking far too early for FF; there will be a backlash, many people do not want to see them in power again. So I'd expect FG to rise in polls over the next 3 weeks and FF to fall. By how much they move is the next question. Will be fun to see FG squirm over the next few days though.

Agree with all of that. Leo is a big problem. Eoghan Murphy and Simon Harris too have become hate figures among the public.

Sir Oxman · 19-01-2020 01:23AM

More figures from ST (summary)

FF up 22% in Munster to 49% support

FG down 2% with 18-35 voters to 28%

ACitizenErased · 19-01-2020 01:24AM

This week could be the nail in the coffin for FG. Many swing voters will look for a radical overhaul with regards to crime based on the way the week has gone. I expect the numbers will be higher than that for FF.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 01:24AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

If those figures keep rising , FF could end up with 65 to 70 seats.

Quite possibly, certainly up into the 60s on that figure. Should be enough for a minimum of 2 seats in most non-Dublin constituencies anyway and enough for at least one in every Dublin constituency. It would mean they're in the hunt big time in Dublin Central and Dublin Rathdown, and could pick up a second in Dublin South West/Dublin Bay North/Dun Laoighaire.

Transfers might dampen down their seat numbers a bit as I don't see them being especially transfer friendly.

Fine Gael are staring at the abyss on these figures.

FF were down to 20 seats in 2011 on 17.4% first preference vote and while FG are unlikely to be as low in vote share or quite as transfer toxic as that, a 2002 re-run has to be a possibility now.

Bishop of hope · 19-01-2020 01:25AM

FG just 1 point ahead of SF, There'll be a few posters tearing their hair out, if they have any!

bren2001 · 19-01-2020 01:27AM

sid waddell wrote: »

Quite possibly, certainly up into the 60s on that figure. Should be enough for a minimum of 2 seats in most non-Dublin constituencies anyway and enough for at least one in every Dublin constituency. It would mean they're in the hunt big time in Dublin Central and Dublin Rathdown, and could pick up a second in Dublin South West/Dublin Bay North/Dun Laoighaire.

Transfers might dampen down their seat numbers a bit as I don't see them being especially transfer friendly.

Fine Gael are staring at the abyss on these figures.

FF were down to 20 seats in 2011 on 17.4% first preference vote and while FG are unlikely to be as low in vote share or quite as transfer toxic as that, a 2002 re-run has to be a possibility now.

Who else can they run in Dublin Bay North? I wouldn't give them much of a chance of 2 seats there myself.

(Nor would I assume Tommy Broughan will lose his seat)

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 01:30AM

The poll is showing 13% for Independents when you include the Independent Alliance.

Is that down on 2016?

Kh1993 · 19-01-2020 01:30AM

Endless options now for FF based on them polls. At worst they are the major party in a confidence and supply. At best, they play SF and the Soc Dems/Greens/Labour/Inds off each other to get what they want

The only thing that could them back is lack of candidates. But also, FGs pig-headedness/ambition In going with 2/3 candidates where one seat is barely safe could be as important.

Sir Oxman · 19-01-2020 01:32AM

boardise wrote: »

Does anyone have the percentage for 'Don't knows' ?

There's nothing about that at all.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 01:33AM

bren2001 wrote: »

Who else can they run in Dublin Bay North? I wouldn't give them much of a chance of 2 seats there myself.

(Nor would I assume Tommy Broughan will lose his seat)

Deirdre Heney is running along with Sean Haughey.

With Finian McGrath not running, two seats has to be a possibility for them on those figures.

The Munster figures are ridiculous, 49%?

They're looking at two seats in Limerick City, Limerick County, Kerry, Tipperary, Waterford, Cork North Central, maybe Cork South West, and a guaranteed two and maybe even three seats in Clare on those figures, all pick ups.

That's a possible nine seat gain in Munster alone.

Water John · 19-01-2020 01:33AM

MM is not interested in SF and won't pretend to as nobody would believe him.

Yes Cork SW could be without a FG TD. Collins (Ind) is from the FG genepool.

Sir Oxman · 19-01-2020 01:34AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

The poll is showing 13% for Independents when you include the Independent Alliance.

Is that down on 2016?

I think it was about 18% in 2016

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 01:38AM

Water John wrote: »

MM is not interested in SF and won't pretend to as nobody would believe him.

Yes Cork SW could be without a FG TD. Collins (Ind) is from the FG genepool.

If FF get up to 62 or 63, and that looks very likely if those figures are near right, he'll hardly need them.

He might have 10 Greens or so and maybe 6-8 Labour to play with, and plenty of willing Independents.

Water John · 19-01-2020 01:40AM

Some Inds like Grealish and Lowry are reliable in voting once an understanding is made. Also has the 2 Healy Raes.

McMurphy · 19-01-2020 01:41AM

KevRossi wrote: »

It won't stay like this. FG had a bad week with the crime, housing crisis, the guy being injured in the tent removal and everyone sharing the pic of the old lady eating outside the shop window.

Their biggest issue is Varadker and they can't get rid of him, he was always a sound bite and social media politician who has proven himself to be worthless as a minister (see his stint in health). Media went soft on him for years as he was alwyas good for a comment either directly or a a @source close to the government'.

This is peaking far too early for FF; there will be a backlash, many people do not want to see them in power again. So I'd expect FG to rise in polls over the next 3 weeks and FF to fall. By how much they move is the next question. Will be fun to see FG squirm over the next few days though.

Poll conducted Jan 2nd to 14th.

Not even taking into account some of last week's shenanigans. Black and Tans controversy will have played a big part in those figures, that's my guess.

FG, ONLY one point ahead of SF

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 01:45AM

McMurphy wrote: »

Poll conducted Jan 2nd to 14th.

Not even taking into account some of last week's shenanigans. Black and Tans controversy will have played a big part in those figures, that's my guess.

FG, ONLY one point ahead of SF

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

Whatever about the polling been done last week, it hasn't exactly been a great week for Fine Gael this week either. I doubt they are taking much comfort over the dates the polling was carried out. Could be better, or worse.

touts · 19-01-2020 01:49AM

sid waddell wrote: »

Did this out this morning for anybody interested.

In the UK election I predicted the Tories would get 359 and Labour 199 so wasn't too far out though I did overestimate the Liberal Democrats.

A good FF poll tonight and you'd have to pile another few seats on top of what I've predicted here, Wicklow and Louth anyway.

Fine Gael election campaigns when in government are what would happen if the Tories didn't have a mass propaganda machine behind them, because Fine Gael dont have one.

1. CARLOW – KK (5)
1 FG 3 FF 1 GREEN

2. CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 SF

3. CLARE (4)
2 FF 2 FG

4. DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1 SF

5. DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN 1 LAB

6. DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
1 FF 1 GREEN 1 FG 1 SOLIDARITY (BOYD BARRETT)

7. DUBLIN CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 SOC DEM 1 GREEN

8. DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG 2 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN

9. DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SOC DEM 1 SF 1 FF

10. DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 SOLIDARITY (KENNY)

11. DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
2 FG, 1 GREEN

12. DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 IND (JOAN COLLINS) 1 FF 1 LAB

13. DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (PAUL MURPHY) 1 SF 1 GREEN

14. DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

15. CORK EAST (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 LAB

16. CORK NORTH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG

17. CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (BARRY)

18. CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 GREEN

19. CORK SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FF 1 FG 1 IND (MICHAEL COLLINS)

20. DONEGAL(5)
2 FF 2 SF 1 IND (THOMAS PRINGLE)

21. GALWAY EAST (3)
1 IND (ANNE RABBITTE) 1 FF 1 FG

22. GALWAY WEST (5)
2 FF 1 FG 2 IND (NOEL GREALISH, CATHERINE CONNOLLY)

23. KERRY (5)
2 IND (HEALY RAES) 1 FG 2 FF

24. KILDARE NORTH (4)
1 SOC DEM 1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN

25. KILDARE SOUTH (4)
3 FF 1 FG

26. LAOIS-OFFALY (5)
2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

27. LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LABOUR

28. LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
2 FF 1 FG

29. LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
1 IND (MORAN) 1 FG 2 FF

30. LOUTH (5)
1 SF 1 GREEN 1 LAB 1 FF 1 FG

31. MAYO (4)
2 FG 2 FF

32. MEATH EAST (3)
1 FF 2 FG

33. MEATH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG 1

34. ROSCOMMON-GALWAY (3)
2 IND (NAUGHTEN, FITZMAURICE) 1 FF

35. SLIGO-LEITRIM (4)
2 FF 1 SF 1 IND (HARKIN)

36. TIPPERARY (5)
3 IND (LOWRY, MCGRATH, HEALY), 2 FF

37. WATERFORD (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 IND (SHANAHAN)

38. WEXFORD (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 LAB

39. WICKLOW (5)
2 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

Totals:
FG 41
FF 58
GREEN 13
SF 17
LAB 8
SOC DEM 3
OTHERS 20

Two FF in Tipperary?? Not a hope! Kelly (Lab) will hold his seat fairly comfortably. The three independents are also looking safe. So that leaves only one seat for FF. And even there Cahill is in a real scrap with FG to hold his seat and his two running mates are just gender quota candidates with no chance of making it beyond count 4 let alone taking a second seat.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 01:53AM

I suppose when you take into account the last few months, none of this is especially surprising.

FG have had the RIC debacle, the Verona Murphy debacle, the Dara Murphy debacle, the Maria Bailey debacle and Brexit, where they basically wrote Boris Johnson's agreement for him and handed him a massive majority. In the last few days there has been the story of the homeless man removed by a digger and there's the ever present housing and health crises.

FG's problem is that unlike the Tories, they just aren't shameless enough to carry any of this stuff off and try to put on a human face in public and tend to backtrack, and don't have a mass media propaganda machine behind them like the Tories do. They're incredibly effective at putting their foot in their mouths.

The Tories also didn't have tweedle dumber, ie. the party who are usually in government, waiting in the wings.

Kh1993 · 19-01-2020 01:53AM

Can’t see the polling from the last week being much better for FG. Constant gaffes, a leader who doesn’t seem to get on too much with the public. While the gap could close, it would take a catastrophic FF meltdown to lose 12 points.

Red C poll being taken this week to be released next Sunday.

KevRossi · 19-01-2020 01:53AM

I wonder id there a breakdown in that on age? Or when would that be available.

Older people more likely to vote, so counts a bit more.

markodaly · 19-01-2020 01:53AM

This will focus the minds of the electorate.
FG will not be as low as 20% come polling day, we all know that. They will be close to what they got last time out.

FF now in the spotlight from all other parties and the media. They had a week where they did nothing bad but did nothing good either, drawing their manifesto out piecemeal is a mistake I think. Is it their strategy to say as little as much as possible and sneak into power? Well, expect people to be gunning for them now.

If people want 'radical' reform of housing, health and justice then is voting for FF going to deliver that? Are people going to be that naive?

I still think FF at the end will outdo FG in the numbers game, but they will be lucky to break 60 seats imo. FG will return kinda the same as last time out I think.
In other words, another minority government will be on the cards, or FF and SF and others can form a government. That could suit FG no ends in the long run.

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 01:53AM

touts wrote: »

Two FF in Tipperary?? Not a hope! Kelly (Lab) will hold his seat fairly comfortably. The three independents are also looking safe. So that leaves only one seat for FF. And even there Cahill is in a real scrap with FG to hold his seat and his two running mates are just gender quota candidates with no chance of making it beyond count 4 let alone taking a second seat.

Fianna Fáil will be in a good position to take two seats in Tipperary if the 49% in Munster holds up as suggested in the polls.

Independent vote is taking a hit this time around, I wouldn't be so certain Healy is safe.

I would have thought Kelly would be safe, but I'm not so sure now. He was lucky to get in back in 2016 and all of the polls are suggesting for months now that the Labour vote will be down on 2016.

Wouldn't surprise me if Fianna Fáil take two and Fine Gael take one with Healy and Kelly missing out.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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