What would happen if Ireland left the EU?

nthclare · 10-01-2020 09:58PM

WesternZulu wrote: »

Sounds miserable!

Hardship im used to it, I don't wish it on anyone seriously but I am very adaptable and good with most of my choices.

Living the simple life, miserable to some but I can do whatever I like to do within my budget, make hay while the sun shines, save water while the rain pours.

Own my own house and my wages pay the bills, middle management in the public sector in a job I studied for.

Surfing, fishing and hiking.
Can do most stuff to maintain the car myself.

Every man should have a high end socket set and be self sufficient..
Plenty of tools and be able to use a shovel...

Boredstiff666 · 10-01-2020 10:00PM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I would like to see the end of EU, everybody leaving and then just creating a free trade agreement with old EU Nations and then some.

Like the good old days.

I actually think that is what is going to happen.

There will be lots of smashed china and blood may even be drawn but I think the break up of what is now will most likely happen and form into something else.

Because there is one thing that is apparent from this............the political stuff simply doesnt work and is resented by the population...........the trade stuff does work.

BarryD2 · 10-01-2020 10:06PM

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Because there is one thing that is apparent from this............the political stuff simply doesnt work and is resented by the population...........the trade stuff does work.

Not sure about that - I count my generation lucky as we've avoided being sucked into a major European conflict. Unlike my father and grandfathers generations. Eaten bread is soon forgotten and people forget the horrors of war.

KWAG2019 · 10-01-2020 10:08PM

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

I actually think that is what is going to happen.

There will be lots of smashed china and blood may even be drawn but I think the break up of what is now will most likely happen and form into something else.

Because there is one thing that is apparent from this............the political stuff simply doesnt work and is resented by the population...........the trade stuff does work.

It’s the most likely outcome. The closer union thing is beginning to seriously aggravate voters in Eastern and Southern Europe.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 10-01-2020 10:17PM

swarlb wrote: »

Look upon it this way... I was a child in the 50/60's, and obviously 'came of age in the 70's.

I worked in an 'ordinary job' not public sector.
Today I have no mortgage, own a very decent home, have no debts of any kind, have savings, and am reasonably secure for the future.

However my children have an uncertain future, and at current trends will probably not find themselves in my position in 50 years, unless they manage to secure very well paid jobs and a pensionable future.

My first wage packet in the mid 70's, was just under £20 a week. Trust me, it went a long way.

I agree with some but not all. I was born in the 40s. Of course we're now mortgage free - but we were crucified with mortgage interest rates getting there. We're at an age when we are now clear of debt, have savings, and (in my case) could retire early. £20 might have sufficed for you in the 70s but did nothing but struggle to raise a family on those wages. Being were we are now (financially secure) happened because we reaped the benefit of EU membership in our prime. Pre EEC we wouldn't have had the opportunity to reach this happy position. Our parents slogged long and hard yet had nothing to show for it. Our children can secure well paid jobs - that's the whole point. Their future has every chance of being as good but that wouldn't be the case if we regressed to non EU membership, lost the multinationals here because of our speaking English and offering a route to Europe.

dxhound2005 · 10-01-2020 10:26PM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I would like to see the end of EU, everybody leaving and then just creating a free trade agreement with old EU Nations and then some.

Like the good old days.

That would encourage the separatist movements to push harder against the existing nation states. A new Basque state in Spain/France, and a new Catalonia and Galicia. Independence for Corsica and Brittany. The French and Dutch in Belgium going their separate ways. And who knows what could happen in Italy.

Lots of scope there for new trade agreements.

Junkyard Tom · 10-01-2020 11:34PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Singapore

Singapore is a city-state so a pro-rata comparison with Dublin would be more appropriate.

Iceland

Iceland has a population smaller than County Cork and depends on Fish and Tourism. It's also in EEA and Schengen.

Switzerland

If Switzerland was removed from its location and placed in Sub Saharan africa it'd be bankrupt within a year. It benefits enormously from being surrounded by some of the most highly developed countries on Earth. It's also in the EEA for all utensils and porpoises.

Norway

In Schengen and the EEA, and has a massive sovereign wealth fund from its North Sea oil.

We're a highly globalised economy that needs to pool its sovereignty - the EU serves us on both counts.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-01-2020 12:43AM

Reyansh Tangy Gerbil wrote: »

Pointless asking in current context. Ireland is only 6th or 7th or so favourite, to leave.
More likely is Italy, Greece, Austria, Poland/Hungy and Sweden/Denmark - Thus ask again after they leave.

If you look at the Italian news the bridge collapse in Genoa in 2018 is still getting more coverage than Brexit

Ubbquittious · 11-01-2020 12:53AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Singapore is a city-state so a pro-rata comparison with Dublin would be more appropriate.

Iceland has a population smaller than County Cork and depends on Fish and Tourism. It's also in EEA and Schengen.

If Switzerland was removed from its location and placed in Sub Saharan africa it'd be bankrupt within a year. It benefits enormously from being surrounded by some of the most highly developed countries on Earth. It's also in the EEA for all utensils and porpoises.

In Schengen and the EEA, and has a massive sovereign wealth fund from its North Sea oil.

We're a highly globalised economy that needs to pool its sovereignty - the EU serves us on both counts.

We should just stay in the EEA so. We''d essentially be a backwater to the EU but there are a lot of advantages to that

Geuze · 11-01-2020 01:12AM

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

And you forgot the money the Gov borrowed and gave them for their factories etc which we then pay for.

This doesn't happen.

We don't pay for the factories occupied by MNCs.

Geuze · 11-01-2020 01:13AM

We have never had an independent currency, so what currency would we have if we left the EU?

MadYaker · 11-01-2020 01:19AM

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Know nothing about it. Had to look it up ans still dont understand. So are you having a pop at me?

Ah man don't tell me you haven't seen The Matrix. Go watch it right now! One of the greats. The book is even better.

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 05:35AM

MadYaker wrote: »

Ah man don't tell me you haven't seen The Matrix. Go watch it right now! One of the greats. The book is even better.

I havent actually its one of those films I see remarked on and think 'I must watch that' but then on Netflix I get a brain dump and forget what I am looking for.

Good call.

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 05:44AM

Geuze wrote: »

This doesn't happen.

We don't pay for the factories occupied by MNCs.

Gov has borrowed billions in past 10 years. I think Ireland is now about 150 billion in debt. Gov sets up factories and extensions from whatever Gov agency is giving the grant to pay for it.

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 06:02AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Singapore is a city-state so a pro-rata comparison with Dublin would be more appropriate.

Iceland has a population smaller than County Cork and depends on Fish and Tourism. It's also in EEA and Schengen.

If Switzerland was removed from its location and placed in Sub Saharan africa it'd be bankrupt within a year. It benefits enormously from being surrounded by some of the most highly developed countries on Earth. It's also in the EEA for all utensils and porpoises.

In Schengen and the EEA, and has a massive sovereign wealth fund from its North Sea oil.

We're a highly globalised economy that needs to pool its sovereignty - the EU serves us on both counts.

Don't matter what you say. Truth is it aint working.

Pablo Escobar · 11-01-2020 07:08AM

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Don't matter what you say. Truth is it aint working.

It's certainly working for me and many others.

11-01-2020 12:57PM

Geuze wrote: »

We have never had an independent currency, so what currency would we have if we left the EU?

We had the Irish punt. What else would we have been using till 2002?

Geuze · 11-01-2020 01:13PM

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Gov has borrowed billions in past 10 years. I think Ireland is now about 150 billion in debt. Gov sets up factories and extensions from whatever Gov agency is giving the grant to pay for it.

The first two sentences are correct.

The public debt is now 200 bn.

Thankfully, the deficits have stopped.

Can you provide more details on the third sentence, i.e. the IDA grants to MNCs?

You might pinpoint where in the IDA annual report these are listed, and the amounts?

sondagefaux · 11-01-2020 01:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

We had the Irish punt. What else would we have been using till 2002?

The punt was tied to Sterling at a fixed exchange rate of 1:1 until 1979. From 1979 to 1999, when the punt's exchange rate was fixed against the other currencies of the countries that became the first group to adopt the euro, it's exchange rate against a basket of currencies of other EEC/EU countries was only allowed to vary by a small percentage, 2.25% or 6% in some cases:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Monetary_System

The Central Banks of the participating countries had to adjust the money supply and interest rates to try to keep their respective currencies within a relatively narrow range of fluctuation against the other currencies in the system.

The EMS, European Monetary System, effectively collapsed in 1992, and currencies were allowed to vary against each other by 15% from 1993 onwards.

However, from 1993 onwards, the Maastricht Treaty meant that the group of EU countries that had agreed to adopt the euro, including Ireland, worked to reduce exchange rate volatility between their currencies, and eventually fixed the exchange rates between their currencies in 1999, effectively ending their respective currencies independence, and marking the debut of the euro as an accounting unit. The introduction of euro notes and coins in 2002 wasn't the start of the euro, which happened in 1999.

Stage Three: 1 January 1999 and continuing[edit]
From the start of 1999, the euro is now a real currency, and a single monetary policy is introduced under the authority of the ECB. A three-year transition period begins before the introduction of actual euro notes and coins, but legally the national currencies have already ceased to exist.
On 1 January 2001, Greece joins the third stage of the EMU.
On 1 January 2002, the euro notes and coins are introduced.
On 1 January 2007, Slovenia joins the third stage of the EMU.
On 1 January 2008, Cyprus and Malta join the third stage of the EMU.
On 1 January 2009, Slovakia joins the third stage of the EMU.
On 1 January 2011, Estonia joins the third stage of the EMU.
On 1 January 2014, Latvia joins the third stage of the EMU.
On 1 January 2015, Lithuania joins the third stage of the EMU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_and_Monetary_Union_of_the_European_Union

Basically, Ireland never really had a fully independent currency (it didn't even have its own Central Bank until 1943): from 1922 to 1979, the Punt was interchangeable with Sterling, from 1979 to 1999, the exchange rate of the Punt against a basket of other European countries only varied within a narrow range (apart from a brief few years from 1992), and from 1999 onwards, the Punt once again ceased to exist as an independent currency.

Even if you regard the 1979 to 1999 period as one of independence for the Punt, it still means that the Irish state had an independent currency for only about 20 years of its existence.

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 01:40PM

Geuze wrote: »

The first two sentences are correct.

The public debt is now 200 bn.

Thankfully, the deficits have stopped.

Can you provide more details on the third sentence, i.e. the IDA grants to MNCs?

You might pinpoint where in the IDA annual report these are listed, and the amounts?

I dont need to its in the news each time they do it. So you go looking through the internet but to keep your lips wet here is one report of giving to the likes of Microsoft, Intel, Boston labs.

I mean those poor hard up companies really need Gov assistance dont they?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/ida-ireland-defends-giving-100m-to-multinationals-1.3601295

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 01:46PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

The punt was tied to Sterling at a fixed exchange rate of 1:1 until 1979. From 1979 to 1999, when the punt's exchange rate was fixed against the other currencies of the countries that became the first group to adopt the euro, it's exchange rate against a basket of currencies of other EEC/EU countries was only allowed to vary by a small percentage, 2.25% or 6% in some cases:

Basically, Ireland never really had a fully independent currency (it didn't even have its own Central Bank until 1943): from 1922 to 1979, the Punt was interchangeable with Sterling, from 1979 to 1999, the exchange rate of the Punt against a basket of other European countries only varied within a narrow range (apart from a brief few years from 1992), and from 1999 onwards, the Punt once again ceased to exist as an independent currency.

Even if you regard the 1979 to 1999 period as one of independence for the Punt, it still means that the Irish state had an independent currency for only about 20 years of its existence.

Well if Ireland decides to align its currency with other countries then that must have been an Irish decision as I cant see how another country can force a country to align its currency with theirs? In which case it's independent.

Until it joins the EU where the EU says what goes.

Irish_peppa · 11-01-2020 01:51PM

If Europe gives Ireland all this money...well why do they keep us in the EU?
I looked up some figures below, surely it doesnt make sense for the EU to pump billions into a little island on the fringe of Europe. Why do they do it? Whats in it for the EU making such a loss?

According to European Commission figures, Ireland's net gain from EU budgets has been €44.6 billion since 1976. ...

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 01:56PM

Irish_peppa wrote: »

If Europe gives Ireland all this money...well why do they keep us in the EU?
I looked up some figures below, surely it doesnt make sense for the EU to pump billions into a little island on the fringe of Europe. Why do they do it? Whats in it for the EU making such a loss?

According to European Commission figures, Ireland's net gain from EU budgets has been €44.6 billion since 1976. ...

There is a saying that .......there is no such thing as a free lunch.

branie2 · 11-01-2020 02:10PM

Disaster

sondagefaux · 11-01-2020 02:11PM

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Well if Ireland decides to align its currency with other countries then that must have been an Irish decision as I cant see how another country can force a country to align its currency with theirs? In which case it's independent.

Until it joins the EU where the EU says what goes.

Adopting the euro was an Irish decision: the Irish people voted in a referendum to approve the Treaty of Maastricht, which committed Ireland to adopting the euro.

The Danish people initially voted against approving the Treaty of Maastricht, Denmark got an opt-out from the euro (and other opt-outs), then the Danes voted to approve the Treaty of Maastricht in a second referendum.

If the majority of Irish people didn't want to adopt the euro, they could have done what the majority of Danish people did in order to secure an opt-out from the euro.

But they didn't, because the notion of a fully independent Irish currency was never a big deal for the majority of Irish people because Ireland never had a fully independent currency after independence.

If Ireland left the EU, the most likely scenario is that it would drift back into becoming almost fully reliant on trade with the UK, and the the Irish currency, let's call it An Punt Nua, would end up linked to Sterling.

When Ireland joined the EEC in 1973, over 90% of its total exports went to the UK.

Apart from anything else, it's bad business to be that reliant on one country for your exports.

Imagine you had a factory and over 90% of the goods you produced were bought by one supermarket chain.

What happens to your business if that supermarket chain hits bad times or goes bust?

You're ****ed.

The most recent figures show that only 8.6% of Irish goods exports (by value) went to Britain, so Ireland is no longer reliant of one country for the vast majority of its exports.

If you think that Ireland could have achieved that without joining the EEC/EU ask yourself how many countries did Ireland have free trade agreements with before 1973?

The answer is that before 1973, Ireland had one free trade agreement with one country: the UK, via the Anglo-Irish Free Trade Agreement of 1965.

By all means desire, and even campaign for, Ireland to leave the EU.

But if you do campaign for it, be aware that there are millions of Irish people who know exactly what Ireland was like before it joined the EEC/EU, and exactly how lacking in independence it was, being in practice, an underdeveloped offshoot of the UK economy before EEC/EU membership.

sondagefaux · 11-01-2020 02:13PM

Irish_peppa wrote: »

If Europe gives Ireland all this money...well why do they keep us in the EU?
I looked up some figures below, surely it doesnt make sense for the EU to pump billions into a little island on the fringe of Europe. Why do they do it? Whats in it for the EU making such a loss?

According to European Commission figures, Ireland's net gain from EU budgets has been €44.6 billion since 1976. ...

Nobody 'keeps us in the EU'.

Ireland joined the EU voluntarily, it can leave whenever it wants.

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 02:18PM

Irish_peppa wrote: »

If Europe gives Ireland all this money...well why do they keep us in the EU?
I looked up some figures below, surely it doesnt make sense for the EU to pump billions into a little island on the fringe of Europe. Why do they do it? Whats in it for the EU making such a loss?

According to European Commission figures, Ireland's net gain from EU budgets has been €44.6 billion since 1976. ...

When I was younger in the Uk and there was tv programs and such objecting to money given to the Common Market. The answers banded around were that 'We have a trading block' and 'smaller countries are being built up so they will be able to buy from us'.

After a few years in the late 70's and 80' this had been so successful that for farming in the Common Market that there were food mountains and wine lakes (masses of abundant food). It got so bad that this food was then sold at a loss to other countries while in Europe the main countries were paying such a lot for their food.

There is no doubt that the grants from the Common Market benefitted agriculture and modernised it.

Then in the 90's the EU was formed and it all went a bit nuts where today it seems that they want to swell countries with people so they all become 'consumers' and the aim is to become some kind of super power to rival the USA.

The way I see it is that this only benefits big corp at the expense of the native population.

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 02:22PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Adopting the euro was an Irish decision: the Irish people voted in a referendum to approve the Treaty of Maastricht, which committed Ireland to adopting the euro.

The Danish people initially voted against approving the Treaty of Maastricht, Denmark got an opt-out from the euro (and other opt-outs), then the Danes voted to approve the Treaty of Maastricht in a second referendum.

If the majority of Irish people didn't want to adopt the euro, they could have done what the majority of Danish people did in order to secure an opt-out from the euro.

But they didn't, because the notion of a fully independent Irish currency was never a big deal for the majority of Irish people because Ireland never had a fully independent currency after independence.

If Ireland left the EU, the most likely scenario is that it would drift back into becoming almost fully reliant on trade with the UK, and the the Irish currency, let's call it An Punt Nua, would end up linked to Sterling.

When Ireland joined the EEC in 1973, over 90% of its total exports went to the UK.

Apart from anything else, it's bad business to be that reliant on one country for your exports.

Imagine you had a factory and over 90% of the goods you produced were bought by one supermarket chain.

What happens to your business if that supermarket chain hits bad times or goes bust?

You're ****ed.

The most recent figures show that only 8.6% of Irish goods exports (by value) went to Britain, so Ireland is no longer reliant of one country for the vast majority of its exports.

If you think that Ireland could have achieved that without joining the EEC/EU ask yourself how many countries did Ireland have free trade agreements with before 1973?

The answer is that before 1973, Ireland had one free trade agreement with one country: the UK, via the Anglo-Irish Free Trade Agreement of 1965.

By all means desire, and even campaign for, Ireland to leave the EU.

But if you do campaign for it, be aware that there are millions of Irish people who know exactly what Ireland was like before it joined the EEC/EU, and exactly how lacking in independence it was, being in practice, an underdeveloped offshoot of the UK economy before EEC/EU membership.

In 1973 the amount of agri exports was only tiny anyway whoever you sold them to, so 90% of not a lot wasnt much.

And I thought Ireland voted a big NO twice until they were blackmailed by the EU to go away like naughty little children and vote again otherwise BIG EU will come and slap your naughty little legs..........DO AS YOUR TOLD! ..........I believe is what happened?

Also I think the UK or any country may have a say for someone wanting to peg the currency with it? You cant just wake up and say 'I know' and do it.

Boredstiff666 · 11-01-2020 02:41PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Nobody 'keeps us in the EU'.

Ireland joined the EU voluntarily, it can leave whenever it wants.

Demand a referendum on EU membership then. I gaurentee they would find someway to silence you.

fash · 11-01-2020 02:48PM

theguzman wrote: »

We would regain sovereignty,

We would lose sovereignty. We were a vassal state of the UK prior to joining the EU- our membership of the EU and the power it gave us no longer to be bullied by the British shocked them during the WA negotiations- despite their threats to destroy Ireland economically, to starve Ireland into submission and to go back to killing Irish people by deliberately withholding medical and other supplies. Those who propose that we leave the EU and go back to being vassal state are traitors or their dangerously gullible followers who should resisted and opposed at every step.

theguzman wrote: »

housing prices and rents would come down as thousands of economic migrants would leave.

certainly in the same way as house prices in depression era America in ghost towns or in (e.g.,) Detroit came down - as the economy collapsed, house prices and rents would come down. Those economic migrants leaving Ireland would include a large majority of Irish people. Again, I would suggest that anyone proposing this as a way forward for Ireland is a traitor to the country or a dangerously gullible follower and should be treated as such.

theguzman wrote: »

and sensible people would actually have a say on our future

But how do we ensure that only "sensible" people have a say in our future - and what would be different that we could implement it in such a scenario that we can't implement it now? I have my own views on that - they are set out below:

theguzman wrote: »

. We would have law and order again, reintroduce he death penalty by hanging and clean up Dublin by executing johnno and deco with their 200 convictions.

Certainly a benefit of leaving the EU is that we could introduce the death penalty - and kill those traitors who push to have us leave the EU, destroy the economy and become a bullied and whipped vassal to the UK and the corrupt pigs (identified below) who control the place. However I think that there are ways of dealing with those people under the current legal system that can achieve a suitably satisfactory outcome for them.

theguzman wrote: »

Will it happen? absolutely not because the pigs at the trough at the top are benefiting too much.

The pigs at the trough, their paid shills and their dangerously gullible followers want us to leave the EU and are pushing for that with every fibre of their being. They must be opposed.

theguzman wrote: »

The EU was hurting the British elite which was why they left, but it is benefiting our corrupt bourgeoisie.

Indeed the EU was hurting the UK's corrupt trough-pigs and so they wanted to leave- why should we facilitate the same people here and their dangerously gullible followers?

What would happen if Ireland left the EU?

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