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Ukranian Airlines Flight PS752 Crash (See mod note/warning in post 270)

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12357…11

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    #122
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,332 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    wandererz wrote: »
    That being said, it reduces confidence in the 737-800's & other models recently manufactured.

    The 800's are dropping out of the sky all the time - not
    You cannot perpetuate something based on unknown facts about a crash
    If the 800 series was so dangerous most airlines in the world would go bankrupt as it would take most of their fleet out of service
    How many of that series (and other series) have ended in a crash due to an issue with the plane?
    Scaremongering to the extreme


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    #123
    Tacitus Kilgore
    Registered Users Posts: 2,128 ✭✭✭Tacitus Kilgore


    Poster comes back to thread complaining of it turning into a conspiracy thread.

    Then turns it into a conspiracy thread :pac:


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    #124
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    https://www.thejournal.ie/ukrainian-airline-crash-in-iran-4959031-Jan2020/

    The Iranians have released a preliminary report stating:
    -The aircraft disappeared from radar at 8,000 feet
    -The crew made no call for help
    -The black boxes were damaged and their memory is incomplete

    Some technical fault that took out everything electronic including the backups and brought the plane down in a blaze. Pity about the black boxes being corrupted. As accidents go that would be pretty spectacular. I mean, it’s interesting that exactly the same thing happened to MH17 re the crew not getting radio off (on account of being dead, in that particular case) but I suppose we’ll just have to trust the Iranians on this, won’t we?


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    #125
    Discodog
    Registered Users Posts: 15,855 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    How would the Iranians know that the data is damaged or incomplete? Is it likely that the data didn't survive?


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    #126
    crisco10
    Registered Users Posts: 6,182 ✭✭✭crisco10


    At this risk of sound like a conspiracy theorist, the Iranians seem to have gathered a helluva lot of information in the last 24 hours.


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    #127
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    You’d expect the preliminary report with those sorts of details in this timeframe for a crash on land. It doesn’t take that long to find out the aircraft went off radar at such and such a time. Perhaps their calls of it being a technical malfunction the night it came down was a bit quick.

    The black boxes being (a) damaged and (b) not gonna be handed over to external parties so far, is mega suspicious under the circumstances.

    At the moment you have to stop and have a real long think to discern a scenario in which the aircraft goes down in a ball of flames without so much as a mayday due to a technical fault. Meanwhile, the notion of a missile would explain away that sort of a crash pretty simply.


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    #128
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    https://www.thejournal.ie/ukrainian-airline-crash-in-iran-4959031-Jan2020/

    The Iranians have released a preliminary report stating:
    -The aircraft disappeared from radar at 8,000 feet
    -The crew made no call for help
    -The black boxes were damaged and their memory is incomplete

    Some technical fault that took out everything electronic including the backups and brought the plane down in a blaze. Pity about the black boxes being corrupted. As accidents go that would be pretty spectacular. I mean, it’s interesting that exactly the same thing happened to MH17 re the crew not getting radio off (on account of being dead, in that particular case) but I suppose we’ll just have to trust the Iranians on this, won’t we?

    The Iranians seem to acting very professionally in my view and have released all relevant information in a relevant timeframe with known facts without speculating. Nobody at an official level is accusing them of any wrong doing here so I don't get your point regarding trusting them. Unfortunately, Iran has suffered many air crashes over the past number of years and as a result of this I'd suspect they've have some very experienced investigators.

    You seem to be very selective in what information you take from the article.

    The plane was trying to turn back or maybe find a dark spot as they where flying over a populated area, which suggests they were alive and in fact fighting against the odds till the end. Pilots struggling to gain control of an aircraft are not going to waste time sending off radio messages.

    The article says some data is missing, this could mean the recorders lost power at the time the incident took place but yet the plane kept flying.


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    #129
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭josip


    IE 222 wrote: »
    The plane was trying to turn back or maybe find a dark spot as they where flying over a populated area, which suggests they were alive and in fact fighting against the odds till the end.


    Apologies if its already been posted, but is there a flight radar track recorded?

    (Found it)

    Fy4gJn2.png

    cDaRC4V.png


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    #130
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    As I say, I just struggle to think of a technical fault that takes it down in a blaze whilst also killing the communications (the reason she went off radar was because the transponder cut out also). And as for them acting professionally, they had called it a tech fault the night of the accident and are being selective in who they invite to the party. That kind of behaviour will always drive suspicion.


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    #131
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    You’d expect the preliminary report with those sorts of details in this timeframe for a crash on land. It doesn’t take that long to find out the aircraft went off radar at such and such a time. Perhaps their calls of it being a technical malfunction the night it came down was a bit quick.

    The black boxes being (a) damaged and (b) not gonna be handed over to external parties so far, is mega suspicious under the circumstances.

    At the moment you have to stop and have a real long think to discern a scenario in which the aircraft goes down in a ball of flames without so much as a mayday due to a technical fault. Meanwhile, the notion of a missile would explain away that sort of a crash pretty simply.

    They have stated they lost radar contact with the plane when it reached 8,000 feet and it appeared to be making a unscheduled turn to the right. They've identified a possible engine malfunction of some sort which the Ukrainians back up which would suggest to me the plane sent a service message or they download the information from the data recorder.

    The Iranians are leading the investigation and if they have the facilities to gather information from the data recorder or repair them then there is simply no need for them to hand over the black boxes.


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    #132
    Letwin_Larry
    Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    crisco10 wrote: »
    At this risk of sound like a conspiracy theorist, the Iranians seem to have gathered a helluva lot of information in the last 24 hours.

    i agree and most of seems to dismiss any theory that supports foul play.
    either they are correct and have carried out a full investigation within 48 hours, or they are trying to hide something.

    it would be interesting to know exactly who was on that plane. were there any high ranking US diplomats/officials? we may never know.


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    #133
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users Posts: 7,576 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    Letwin_Larry wrote: »
    i agree and most of seems to dismiss any theory that supports foul play.
    either they are correct and have carried out a full investigation within 48 hours, or they are trying to hide something.

    it would be interesting to know exactly who was on that plane. were there any high ranking US diplomats/officials? we may never know.

    I think all nationalities were named that was on the plane . A lot of Canadians I think


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    #134
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    As I say, I just struggle to think of a technical fault that takes it down in a blaze whilst also killing the communications (the reason she went off radar was because the transponder cut out also). And as for them acting professionally, they had called it a tech fault the night of the accident and are being selective in who they invite to the party. That kind of behaviour will always drive suspicion.

    Well we don't know what caused it yet but a large enough fire can cut the power. There is no evidence of foul play yet and there is certainly no reports from an official level of a missile hitting it.

    Iran is a very enclosed country, they'll be very selective as to who they'll allow in.


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    #135
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    Letwin_Larry wrote: »
    i agree and most of seems to dismiss any theory that supports foul play.
    either they are correct and have carried out a full investigation within 48 hours, or they are trying to hide something.

    it would be interesting to know exactly who was on that plane. were there any high ranking US diplomats/officials? we may never know.

    The list of passengers was released yesterday.


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    #136
    Letwin_Larry
    Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    Dr. Bre wrote: »
    I think all nationalities were named that was on the plane . A lot of Canadians I think

    agreed but i would be interested to know exactly what "their businesss" was. spooks tend not to put their real occupation on FB, or anywhere else for that matter. just cos they were flying under a Canadian passport doesn't necessarily mean they were Canadians.

    it's just a theory on my part of course ...

    it was probably just an unfortunate accident, and a weird coincidence.


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    #137
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,901 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    IE 222 wrote: »
    The Iranians seem to acting very professionally ...

    The article says some data is missing, this could mean the recorders lost power at the time the incident took place but yet the plane kept flying.

    The flight data recorders have an independent power supply. Iran not making the flight data recorders available to accredited outside agencies is not a great example of acting professionally. I can understand being miffed about Boeing and anything US, at the moment, but there's the EU, who have been trying to keep the nuclear deal going and have been trying to counter US financial strictures that make sanctions possible and construct work-arounds to help Iran out.


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    #138
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    As I say, I just struggle to think of a technical fault that takes it down in a blaze whilst also killing the communications (the reason she went off radar was because the transponder cut out also). And as for them acting professionally, they had called it a tech fault the night of the accident and are being selective in who they invite to the party. That kind of behaviour will always drive suspicion.

    That's not how radar works. It may have disappeared of FR24 when the transponder cut, but wouldn't have disappeared off radar until it got below the the line of sight of the radar.


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    #139
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    cnocbui wrote: »
    The flight data recorders have an independent power supply. Iran not making the flight data recorders available to accredited outside agencies is not a great example of acting professionally. I can understand being miffed about Boeing and anything US, at the moment, but there's the EU, who have been trying to keep the nuclear deal going and have been trying to counter US financial strictures that make sanctions possible and construct work-arounds to help Iran out.

    A team of Ukrainian investigators are travelling to Iran to help. As I said if Iran have the facilities and ability to download and read the data recorders then there is simply no need for them to send them elsewhere.


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    #140
    Letwin_Larry
    Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    now reporting that one of the plane's engines overheated shortly after takeoff, and that the pilot tried to turn back to the airport before crashing.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-iran-plane-crash-pilot-21243795


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    #141
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    Letwin_Larry wrote: »
    now reporting that one of the plane's engines overheated shortly after takeoff, and that the pilot tried to turn back to the airport before crashing.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-iran-plane-crash-pilot-21243795

    I can't get over how many people, and indeed incredibly smart people, seem to be buying into the authorities explanation of a technical issue. Interesting times we live in.


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    #142
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,950 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I wouldn't write off technical issues same as I wouldn't write off a shoot down. Coincidences happen.

    Nearly everyone was convinced the AA crash in late 2001 was terrorism - so soon after takeoff and crashing in a residential area. It was a mechanical failure enduced by bad piloting


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    #143
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,901 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    IE 222 wrote: »
    A team of Ukrainian investigators are travelling to Iran to help. As I said if Iran have the facilities and ability to download and read the data recorders then there is simply no need for them to send them elsewhere.

    Yes there is. Independent verification being the least of it. Iran is a very bad actor on the world stage and their word isn't to be trusted or given credence.


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    #144
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    crisco10 wrote: »
    At this risk of sound like a conspiracy theorist, the Iranians seem to have gathered a helluva lot of information in the last 24 hours.

    The plane was delayed for an hour, which I've read was due to a technical fault. The crew would of reported the fault as the reason for the delay. What the fault was we don't know yet but giving it had a 4.5 hour turn around plus an extra 1 hour delay it's possible if the inbound flight suffered the fault work was carried out on the plane in Iran which would provide the authorities with the information required to make such statements.


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    #145
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Have the Iranians released a statement saying, "whatever the reason for the crash, we are 100% certain we didn't shoot it down with a missile"?
    Their army is well organised enough to know if one was fired or not.


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    #146
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Yes there is. Independent verification being the least of it. Iran is a very bad actor on the world stage and their word isn't to be trusted or given credence.

    Do you trust the Ukrainians?


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    #147
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    IE 222 wrote: »
    A team of Ukrainian investigators are travelling to Iran to help. As I said if Iran have the facilities and ability to download and read the data recorders then there is simply no need for them to send them elsewhere.

    To the point of professionalism, it's normal for air accident investigations to be extensively multi-party. Countries that close the door in them tend to be ones with something to hide, ala Egypt pulling the plug on an intl investigation of 990 when it started to lead in directions they didn't like. If the Iranians want a creditable investigation they should bring in more European agencies of good standing. At this stage however with the FDRs damaged they may have passed the window of being able to keep their credibility.

    The issue now is that you have a pretty dramatic downing of an airliner at a time when Iran was on high military alert, you have fishy statements made immediately after it was downed, you have Iran tightly controlling who gets in on the investigation and now a damaged FDR. If it was a true mechanical failure or some accident, their behavior makes it a lot less likely the cause will be discovered convincingly and in a manner that will lead to safety improvements given the pall over the investigation.
    That's not how radar works. It may have disappeared of FR24 when the transponder cut, but wouldn't have disappeared off radar until it got below the the line of sight of the radar.

    The radar used by the civil authorities, which is what I would presume they're talking about when they say it went off radar, is reliant on the transponder though. The transponder going off and no communications from the aircraft indicates a pretty significant event.

    The turn of the aircraft is interesting. Maybe someone was at the controls, or maybe it entered a bank due to the damage that was also causing the fire.


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    #148
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,901 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    IE 222 wrote: »
    Do you trust the Ukrainians?

    A lot more than I do Iran. In this instance, most definitely.


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    #149
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    cnocbui wrote: »
    A lot more than I do Iran. In this instance, most definitely.

    Well then there should be no reason to have any doubts as the Ukrainians have echoed anything the Iranians have said. It's likely some of the information the Iranians have released was sourced from the Ukrainians.


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    #150
    IE 222
    Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭IE 222


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    To the point of professionalism, it's normal for air accident investigations to be extensively multi-party. Countries that close the door in them tend to be ones with something to hide, ala Egypt pulling the plug on an intl investigation of 990 when it started to lead in directions they didn't like. If the Iranians want a creditable investigation they should bring in more European agencies of good standing. At this stage however with the FDRs damaged they may have passed the window of being able to keep their credibility.

    The issue now is that you have a pretty dramatic downing of an airliner at a time when Iran was on high military alert, you have fishy statements made immediately after it was downed, you have Iran tightly controlling who gets in on the investigation and now a damaged FDR. If it was a true mechanical failure or some accident, their behavior makes it a lot less likely the cause will be discovered convincingly and in a manner that will lead to safety improvements given the pall over the investigation.



    The radar used by the civil authorities, which is what I would presume they're talking about when they say it went off radar, is reliant on the transponder though. The transponder going off and no communications from the aircraft indicates a pretty significant event.

    The turn of the aircraft is interesting. Maybe someone was at the controls, or maybe it entered a bank due to the damage that was also causing the fire.

    Which they have done. It's only 24hrs since the crash. The Ukrainians are sending a team. The only other country who have a stand in the matter is the US and given the current situation between the 2 i don't think its unreasonable to accept why they haven't called on the US. They may seek another country should they require assistance.

    We don't know what level of damage, if any, the FDR suffered, all that was stated was not all the information was there. As I said it could be a case the recorders cut out before the point of impact.

    What was fishy about their statements?

    I'm sure the aircraft was tracked on both military and civil radar and on both primary and secondary radar.


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    #151
    wcooba
    Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭wcooba


    What are the odds of model with stellar safety record (http://airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm ) to be taken down by a technical failure, exactly at the time when international conflict escalates and in the capital of the main involved country? Just too much of coincidence?

    On the other hand - fuselage photos circulating on the web don't seem to have shrapnel damage typical for SAM warheads. This is how MH17 looked like: https://api.time.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash8.jpg


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