Ukranian Airlines Flight PS752 Crash (See mod note/warning in post 270)

MuffinsDa · 08-01-2020 3:30pm

EB_2013 wrote: »

If they had shot it down would they not have restricted access to the crash site to hide any signs of a missile strike. The site was full of rescue workers and media.

Has anything been said of what caused the hour delay before takeoff?

Do you think they would be that organized? Specially if it was an error?

Someone on AVHerald said same CFM engine had an uncontained failure as recently as 2018. I have on idea if that is the case or not.

wcooba · 08-01-2020 3:58pm

MuffinsDa wrote: »

or, tragically, probably more likely to be legit air defence system mistaking it for enemy aircraft. like what happened with the Malaysian over Ukraine.

And it is quite likely it was a Russian system too...

Tenger · 08-01-2020 4:06pm

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

I would be more interested why Britons and Canadians are flying to a potential war zone. But thats just me.

Technicaly they were departing a potential war one.

But Im sure they are any businesses that deal with Iran. The Iran nuclear deal opened up the country to outside trade and co-operation.
It was the US Govt who pulled out of the deal last year

MuffinsDa · 08-01-2020 4:12pm

Tenger wrote: »

Technicaly they were departing a potential war one.

But Im sure they are any businesses that deal with Iran. The Iran nuclear deal opened up the country to outside trade and co-operation.
It was the US Govt who pulled out of the deal last year

As explained a couple of time before: almost all of those cited as Canadian, British, etc, were dual nationals, on their way back from Christmas holidays. A lot of them students. UIA a very popular low cost operator.

Many of the Canadians on board were believed to be Iranian-Canadian students returning to school after the holidays. Flying Ukrainian International Airlines, via the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, is one of the cheapest routes from Tehran to Toronto.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-63-canadians-among-those-killed-after-ukrainian-airliner-crashes-in/

A cursory look at the manifest points at maybe around 4 being non dual national, the rest of the names are clearly Iranian.

Nift · 08-01-2020 4:28pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-crash-170-passengers-feared-dead-ukraine-boeing-737/

bit strange to completely shoot down such suggestions as tin foil hat territory unworthy of discussion.

Could be easily a mistake. Ukranians seemingly suggesting it now.

Its not like this hasn't happened before.

MuffinsDa · 08-01-2020 4:31pm

Nift wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-crash-170-passengers-feared-dead-ukraine-boeing-737/

bit strange to completely shoot down suggestions as tin foil hat territory unworthy of suggestion.

Who shot down suggestions of error / missile as tin foil hat territory? Where?

Nift · 08-01-2020 4:44pm

Sorry it was in relation to the other thing, i thought it was about the potential shooting down. fair enough

simongurnick · 08-01-2020 4:56pm

So the video i saw showed a glow in the air and then an explosion. If it was hit by a missile wouldnt there have just been one explosion? Or could it have hit it, causing a fire and then delayed explosion?

josip · 08-01-2020 5:07pm

simongurnick wrote: »

So the video i saw showed a glow in the air and then an explosion. If it was hit by a missile wouldnt there have just been one explosion? Or could it have hit it, causing a fire and then delayed explosion?

The video I saw showed an explosion when it hit the ground, it was on fire on the way down.

Nijmegen · 08-01-2020 5:23pm

The scenario for an accidental shoot down is fairly believable. Iran goes onto high air defense alert because they're currently firing missiles at US bases and are expecting US retaliation, the US is indeed reported to have put aircraft up out of the UAE in response through they were never ordered to attack Iran. When the air defense net goes live someone with an itchy trigger finger launches a SAM at the first thing they see, or maybe some piece of equipment malfunctions, and a missile goes up and takes the plane out. Iran refusing to immediately bring in internationally credible investigators would tend to lead you in the direction of thinking that they want to cover it up rather than just pique at the international community.

The amount of expats onboard would lead you to think that Iran would have domestic as well as international issues if it transpired they killed a load of their people / family members at a time when Iran has been dealing with internal dissent recently and large protests and this focus on fighting Johnny Foreigner had cooled the jets on it.

Cookiemunster · 08-01-2020 5:25pm

josip wrote: »

The video I saw showed an explosion when it hit the ground, it was on fire on the way down.

A missile would have caused an explosion mid air though, I would have thought, rather than an in flight fire before the plane crashed.

Storm 10 · 08-01-2020 5:34pm

I find it very strange as to why someone was filming this particular flight at night from a distance, do they know something was going to happen to this aircraft. If something like this happened near Dublin you can be sure no one would have any video of a crash especially at night and from a phone camera.

Tacitus Kilgore · 08-01-2020 5:36pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

I find it very strange as to why someone was filming this particular flight at night from a distance, do they know something was going to happen to this aircraft. If something like this happened near Dublin you can be sure no one would have any video of a crash especially at night and from a phone camera.

The plane is well lit up before the recording happens - only takes 0.5s to get a smartphone camera up and running these days, especially if the phone is in-hand!

I beg to differ on the last bit tbh.

Manic Moran · 08-01-2020 5:46pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

A missile would have caused an explosion mid air though, I would have thought, rather than an in flight fire before the plane crashed.

Not really. A bit of coconut effect there. Most missiles have proximity fuses, and they detonate some distance from the target. Warhead fragmentation is then blasted outwards in the hope that the metal will punch through something vital. Aircraft are very fragile, normally unarmoured things, and if a piece of metal fragment punches through a turbine, control system, cabin, fuel or hydraulic line or whatever, that's plenty good enough. Aircraft exploding in mid-air from a missile strike (unless the fragmentation punches into a near empty-fuel tank) are the exception, not the rule.

Nijmegen · 08-01-2020 5:48pm

If there had been an uncontained engine failure, all the Iranians would need to do is release the audio of any transmissions from the aircraft. But all indications at this time seem to be that there were no transmissions from the aircraft. Reminds you of MH over Ukraine when the missile shrapnel killed the flight crew and the plane went into a death spiral. Would an uncontained engine failure that happened to take out the fuel lines also take out the flight crew or the radios? I don't think any of their equipment for radioing is in line with or behind the engine.

The longer the Iranians go for silence the more it looks like they accidentally shot it down and want to cover it up or have a think at least about the next step.

josip · 08-01-2020 5:55pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

I find it very strange as to why someone was filming this particular flight at night from a distance, do they know something was going to happen to this aircraft. If something like this happened near Dublin you can be sure no one would have any video of a crash especially at night and from a phone camera.

This was captured 20 years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj7PW7AGzcI

Shedite27 · 08-01-2020 7:15pm

While we're speculating, the plane in question was serviced 2 days ago. I've watched enough Air Crash Investigator to know that they'll be checking what they dd to the plane.

Letwin_Larry · 08-01-2020 7:47pm

what a co-incidence eh?
my guess is the Iranians were on high alert expecting an American response to their pea-shooter "attack", and some trigger happy guy heard the words American aircraft and shot it down.
sadly such incidents are not uncommon during "the fog of war".

if proven this will only result in tighter sanctions.

kravmaga · 08-01-2020 7:55pm

Shedidnt wrote: »

I just find it curious that you'd have 63 Canadians on a plane from Iran to the Ukraine, which came to its demise, the same day Iran attacks air bases with US (and Iraqi) personnel in Iraq. Just too coincidental for me. Just sayin'

If you look at the Surnames on the passenger manifest I dont see any Canadian surnames, they all look like Iranian surnames

Letwin_Larry · 08-01-2020 8:04pm

how could they be so sure, so quickly?

Iranian officials said technical issues were behind the Ukrainian International Airlines (UIA) crash, which happened shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport on Wednesday morning, killing all 176 people on board.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-plane-crash-shootdown-ukraine-boeing-latest-a9275051.html

X111111111111 · 08-01-2020 8:09pm

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

what a co-incidence eh?
my guess is the Iranians were on high alert expecting an American response to their pea-shooter "attack", and some trigger happy guy heard the words American aircraft and shot it down.
sadly such incidents are not uncommon during "the fog of war".

if proven this will only result in tighter sanctions.

If true then sanctions will be the least of Tehran's problems.

CPTM · 08-01-2020 8:14pm

X111111111111 wrote: »

If true then sanctions will be the least of Tehran's problems.

Is that true though? What about the other one shot down some years ago. Investigation happened and life moved on right?

mr.anonymous · 08-01-2020 8:15pm

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

how could they be so sure, so quickly?

Iranian officials said technical issues were behind the Ukrainian International Airlines (UIA) crash, which happened shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport on Wednesday morning, killing all 176 people on board.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-plane-crash-shootdown-ukraine-boeing-latest-a9275051.html

AvHerald report says that the Ukrainian embassy in Iran first said due to engine failure but did not say that in later releases.

The debris area seems very spread out, which is usually an in flight breakup and/or high speed impact.

Nijmegen · 08-01-2020 8:16pm

X111111111111 wrote: »

If true then sanctions will be the least of Tehran's problems.

Nah, everyone is de-escalating. It’ll slide by.

cnocbui · 08-01-2020 9:34pm

I think it was shot down, as reported:

Dubai’s Al Hadath news channel is reporting that Iran’s anti-aircraft units accidentally shot down a Boeing 727 passenger plane that was flying out of Tehran en route to Ukraine.

https://www.hollywoodlanews.com/iran-shot-down-boeing-737-plane/

Looking at the Daily Mail article with it's comprehensive collection of photos of the wreckage, i spotted at least three external skin panels with inward punched shrapnel holes and tears, reminiscent of those that were used to declare MH17 was shot down by a BUK missile.

There are also purported photos of debris that appears to be from a TOR_M1 air defense missile supposedly found near the crash site. (I would have thought such a thing would be a couple km away, so...) https://tweet-per-sec.com/index.html?p=2&t=-1&lang=fr&q=ukrainian

wandererz · 08-01-2020 10:28pm

I am at a loss to understand this.
I posted the original thread in the Aircraft & Aviation forum.
Not Conspiracy Theories or AH or other such.

Yet it's devolved into a pure Conspiracy Theory & speculation thread.

At the time, it was reported as an engine failure or other such aircraft failure on a 3 year old aircraft serviced not 2 or 3 days previously.
That being the case, my intent was to express my disillusion at the manufacturer as a whole considering recent events & the way they have dealt with it all that lead to minimised confidence in the entire organisation & Safety and QA procedures.

All this being in keeping with the the Aircraft & Aviation thread.

Yet, a mod changes the thread title & supports all the conspiracy theories being spouted.
That should be in a different forum IMO.

L1011 · 08-01-2020 10:31pm

wandererz wrote: »

I am at a loss to understand this.
I posted the original thread in the Aircraft & Aviation forum.
Not Conspiracy Theories or AH or other such.

Yet it's devolved into a pure Conspiracy Theory & speculation thread.

At the time, it was reported as an engine failure or other such aircraft failure on a 3 year old aircraft serviced not 2 or 3 days previously.
That being the case, my intent was to express my disillusion at the manufacturer as a whole considering recent events & the way they have dealt with it all that lead to minimised confidence in the entire organisation & Safety and QA procedures.

All this being in keeping with the the Aircraft & Aviation thread.

Yet, a mod changes the thread title & supports all the conspiracy theories being spouted.
That should be in a different forum IMO.

The thread title was changed because it was hyperbolic/clickbait. It was changed to a factual one that would actually make people aware of what the topic was.

The particularly ridiculous conspiracy theory posited has had the poster directed to Conspiracy Theories and then banned when they wouldn't go.

The potential for it to have been shot down is not, in itself, a conspiracy theory.

Fritzbox · 08-01-2020 10:37pm

wandererz wrote: »

At the time, it was reported as an engine failure or other such aircraft failure on a 3 year old aircraft serviced not 2 or 3 days previously.
That being the case, my intent was to express my disillusion at the manufacturer as a whole considering recent events & the way they have dealt with it all that lead to minimised confidence in the entire organisation & Safety and QA procedures.

In other words, it's a "bash Boeing" thread which you are looking for, and not a conspiracy thread?

wandererz · 08-01-2020 10:42pm

L1011 wrote: »

The potential for it to have been shot down is not, in itself, a conspiracy theory.

Please forgive me but the term potential immediately conveys conspiracy theory to me.

The official statements released are what should be gone by until & otherwise disproved.

Those are: a failure of a relatively new & recently maintained aircraft.

Again: until otherwise disproved.

Van.Bosch · 08-01-2020 10:43pm

wandererz wrote: »

Please forgive me but the term potential immediately conveys conspiracy theory to me.

The official statements released are what should be gone by until & otherwise disproved.

Those are: a failure of a relatively new & recently maintained aircraft.

Again: until otherwise disproved.

Which “official statement” said it was a “failure of a relatively new and recently maintained aircraft”?

Ukranian Airlines Flight PS752 Crash (See mod note/warning in post 270)

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