Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

Tenzor07 · 13-10-2019 02:54PM

Thirdfox wrote: »

Some small change at the top:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/12/boeing-removes-ceo-as-chairman-amid-737-max-crisis

So CEO is still CEO, but no longer chairman.

Though in these cases - I think it's still rarely just one person at the top that changes the culture of a company completely - plenty of people would need to be happy with the direction a company goes in before they change course. See the protests by google employees (and backtracking by Google) when Google tries to do things some people regard as against the company's "values".

I'm sure this will be the first of many moves at Boeing towers, they need to change the culture in this corporation...

Nijmegen · 18-10-2019 06:38PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing-exclusive-idUSKBN1WX25G

Hello smoking gun? Their shares are nosediving as messages between Boeing employees during the MAX certification process have come to light. I can see some people going to prison at this stage.

banie01 · 18-10-2019 06:45PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing-exclusive-idUSKBN1WX25G

Hello smoking gun? Their shares are nosediving as messages between Boeing employees during the MAX certification process have come to light. I can see some people going to prison at this stage.

Its been coming, and with a share price "correction" as well as the furlough and storage costs Boeing are facing into quite a bit of turmoil IMO.

Damien360 · 18-10-2019 06:48PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing-exclusive-idUSKBN1WX25G

Hello smoking gun? Their shares are nosediving as messages between Boeing employees during the MAX certification process have come to light. I can see some people going to prison at this stage.

Boeing plummeting would effect the US economy and there isn’t a hope in hell of that being allowed to happen. Trump will not allow it. As bad as it is, nobody is going to jail.

Raging_Ninja · 18-10-2019 08:05PM

Damien360 wrote: »

Boeing plummeting would effect the US economy and there isn’t a hope in hell of that being allowed to happen. Trump will not allow it. As bad as it is, nobody is going to jail.

Boeing absolutely could go down. But the assets, production lines etc would all still exist and another company could buy the assets and continue the business, potentially under a different name.

After all, McDonnell Douglas (which itself was formed by a merger of two other defense contractors) was also a big defense contractor until it merged with Boeing.

Quin_Dub · 22-10-2019 02:48PM

Damien360 wrote: »

Boeing plummeting would effect the US economy and there isn’t a hope in hell of that being allowed to happen. Trump will not allow it. As bad as it is, nobody is going to jail.

You are right, it won't be allowed to fail ,but this is going to cost them (and the US taxpayer) a LOT of money.

In terms of Jail - Muelenberg and the like aren't going to jail,but I wouldn't be surprised if some mid level Director/Jr VP type gets thrown to the wolves as part of the PR Recovery plan.

Nijmegen · 22-10-2019 10:04PM

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeings-kevin-mcallister-resigns-amid-growing-737-m-461699/

COO gone. I reckon the CEOs performance in front of congress might be an interview to keep himself in the role.

cnocbui · 23-10-2019 12:14AM

VW were fined $30 Billion for fudging some CO2 measurements. If Boeing even gets $3 B in fines for killing hundreds of people, I will be very surprised.

Yes, I'm a cynic.

Bob24 · 23-10-2019 08:34AM

cnocbui wrote: »

VW were fined $30 Billion for fudging some CO2 measurements. If Boeing even gets $3 B in fines for killing hundreds of people, I will be very surprised.

Yes, I'm a cynic.

Sadly, you’re probably right.

Hotblack Desiato · 23-10-2019 10:40AM

cnocbui wrote: »

VW were fined $30 Billion for fudging some CO2 measurements. If Boeing even gets $3 B in fines for killing hundreds of people, I will be very surprised.

Yes, I'm a cynic.

It was NOx and it has a significant effect on human health.

Study: Volkswagen’s excess emissions will lead to 1,200 premature deaths in Europe

You are probably right about Boeing getting a slap on the wrist however - and I'd have to say that the fact it was two non-US airlines which crashed a long way away is part of that.

cnocbui · 23-10-2019 11:18AM

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

It was NOx and it has a significant effect on human health.

Study: Volkswagen’s excess emissions will lead to 1,200 premature deaths in Europe

You are probably right about Boeing getting a slap on the wrist however - and I'd have to say that the fact it was two non-US airlines which crashed a long way away is part of that.

Whoops, yes, NOX. I wasn't trying to downplay the seriousness of NOX, however, the fine was in the US, where diesel cars are far fewer in number as a proportion of the total so aerial concentrations are likely lower than in European cities. The estimate of premature deaths from NOX in the US, attributable to VW cheat emissions is 59. So Boeing should be fined about $79 B proportionately.

murphaph · 23-10-2019 04:36PM

That's a very interesting comparison with VW. I'll also be amazed if Boeing are fined proportionally.

mickdw · 23-10-2019 04:46PM

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

It was NOx and it has a significant effect on human health.

Study: Volkswagen’s excess emissions will lead to 1,200 premature deaths in Europe

You are probably right about Boeing getting a slap on the wrist however - and I'd have to say that the fact it was two non-US airlines which crashed a long way away is part of that.

Ya it was nox but not deemed as important as co2 seeing as that is what they chose to tax us on here. The old green bullsh1t more important than direct health effects as usual.

cnocbui · 23-10-2019 08:45PM

mickdw wrote: »

Ya it was nox but not deemed as important as co2 seeing as that is what they chose to tax us on here. The old green bullsh1t more important than direct health effects as usual.

At the time that genius Gormley tipped the tax table to ensure this country got a near 100% diesel car fleet, it was known that a Japanese scientist had isolated a chemical from diesel emissions that proved on testing to be the most powerful carcinogen ever discovered. I knew this when Gormley was doing his thing, no excuse for him and the civil servants who are supposed to advise him to have not known that.

dogmatix · 24-10-2019 07:30AM

cnocbui wrote: »

At the time that genius Gormley tipped the tax table to ensure this country got a near 100% diesel car fleet, it was known that a Japanese scientist had isolated a chemical from diesel emissions that proved on testing to be the most powerful carcinogen ever discovered. I knew this when Gormley was doing his thing, no excuse for him and the civil servants who are supposed to advise him to have not known that.

Near 100% diesel car fleet? Most powerful carcinogen ever discovered? Over the top claims like these need some sort of credible link to be ever taken seriously. Otherwise the above post really belongs in the green party thrashing thread and/or motor forums. Or even the after hours conspiracy theory forum.

Back to the 737 max: an interesting article of the threat the 737 max presents to the future of 737 only Southwest airlines. And Ryanair too potentially?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20927213/boeing-737-max-southwest-planes-crash-budget-airlines-grounded-cost-maintenance

cnocbui · 24-10-2019 11:01AM

dogmatix wrote: »

Near 100% diesel car fleet? Most powerful carcinogen ever discovered? Over the top claims like these need some sort of credible link to be ever taken seriously. Otherwise the above post really belongs in the green party thrashing thread and/or motor forums. Or even the after hours conspiracy theory forum.

Back to the 737 max: an interesting article of the threat the 737 max presents to the future of 737 only Southwest airlines. And Ryanair too potentially?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20927213/boeing-737-max-southwest-planes-crash-budget-airlines-grounded-cost-maintenance

From REUTERS

LONDON (Reuters) - Japanese scientists suspect that a chemical found in the exhaust fumes of diesel engines may be the most carcinogenic ever found, and the cause of a rise in urban lung cancers, the New Scientist magazine said Thursday.

The compound, 3-nitrobenzanthrone, had the highest ever score on a standard test for cancer-causing potential of toxic chemicals. It also caused chromosomal aberrations in the blood cells of mice.

"I personally believe that the recent increase in the number of lung cancer patients in vehicle-congested areas is closely linked with respirable carcinogens such as 3-nitrobenzanthrone," said Hitomi Suzuki, a chemist at Kyoto University, who conducted the study.

When Suzuki tested the compound on a strain of salmonella he found that if caused more mutations than 1.6 dinitropyrene, the previous most powerful known mutagen.

Although both compounds are found only in minute quantites, they are so dangerous that "it is easily understandable that they would contribute considerably to the total mutagenic activity of diesel exhaust particle extracts," Suzuki added.

He called for stronger limits on the loads that diesel trucks can carry because there are more emissions from engines under heavier loads.

https://rense.com/health/deiselcancer.htm

3-Nitrobenzanthrone (3-nitro-7H-benz[de]anthracen-7-one) is a chemical compound emitted in diesel exhaust; it is a potent carcinogen.[2] It produced the highest score ever reported in the Ames test, a standard measure of the cancer-causing potential of toxic chemicals, far greater than the previous known strongest (1,8-dinitropyrene, which is also found in diesel exhaust).[3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-Nitrobenzanthrone

Ok, I'll concede to a bit of hyperbole regarding the cars, but it's closer to the actual figures than not.

No more - back to the 737 Max.

Hotblack Desiato · 24-10-2019 01:19PM

dogmatix wrote: »

Back to the 737 max: an interesting article of the threat the 737 max presents to the future of 737 only Southwest airlines. And Ryanair too potentially?

Slowing their expansion isn't what anybody outside of clickbait "journalism" would call a threat to their future

Rawr · 24-10-2019 08:08PM

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Slowing their expansion isn't what anybody outside of clickbait "journalism" would call a threat to their future

True. Makes you wonder though if operators like these guys have started to consider any kind of "Plan B".

Considering a possible nightmare situation where the Max has to be scrapped (unlikely, but you never know); could they ever consider swapping to A320s or would the plan be to run the NGs longer than they normally would until Boeing come up with some kind of 737 successor?

Charles Babbage · 24-10-2019 09:01PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Whoops, yes, NOX. I wasn't trying to downplay the seriousness of NOX, however, the fine was in the US, where diesel cars are far fewer in number as a proportion of the total so aerial concentrations are likely lower than in European cities. The estimate of premature deaths from NOX in the US, attributable to VW cheat emissions is 59. So Boeing should be fined about $79 B proportionately.

In addition to premature deaths, VW damaged the health of a larger number of people, the Max didn't cause any real problems other than the deaths.

Henry Ford III · 25-10-2019 09:15AM

The Max saga keeps on giving and giving.

The fundamental issue with the 737 - the engines are sitting too low - won't go away without a major redesign. Essentially a new plane. I think that's exactly what Boeing should do.

It would be an enormous cost but I can't ever see confidence returning to the 737 Max regardless of whatever electronic trickery they wheel out.

cnocbui · 25-10-2019 12:48PM

Henry Ford III wrote: »

The Max saga keeps on giving and giving.

The fundamental issue with the 737 - the engines are sitting too low - won't go away without a major redesign. Essentially a new plane. I think that's exactly what Boeing should do.

It would be an enormous cost but I can't ever see confidence returning to the 737 Max regardless of whatever electronic trickery they wheel out.

They won't be scrapping the Max, the fix will get regulatory approval and they will all be flying again after that. The amount of money involved is far too large to be putting safety first. Trump has wound back and neutered every regulatory oversight of commerce you can think of. The FAA won't be allowed to harm Boeing.

Blut2 · 25-10-2019 01:56PM

cnocbui wrote: »

They won't be scrapping the Max, the fix will get regulatory approval and they will all be flying again after that. The amount of money involved is far too large to be putting safety first. Trump has wound back and neutered every regulatory oversight of commerce you can think of. The FAA won't be allowed to harm Boeing.

The FAA may have their arm twisted towards a sooner approval, but Boeing will have a much more difficult job with EASA and the Chinese. I would not be betting any of my money on seeing the Max in worldwide commercial service within the 12 months.

Turbulent Bill · 26-10-2019 06:20PM

I was booking some flights using Kanoo Travel (business travel service) recently. Every flight search had a popup saying the MAX was not in service at the airlines they book (or words to that effect).

Thought it was interesting that the issues are now publicised enough that they felt the popup was necessary. On top of the re-certification, Boeing will have a serious PR job to do with the travelling public.

Bob24 · 26-10-2019 07:50PM

Turbulent Bill wrote: »

I was booking some flights using Kanoo Travel (business travel service) recently. Every flight search had a popup saying the MAX was not in service at the airlines they book (or words to that effect).

Thought it was interesting that the issues are now publicised enough that they felt the popup was necessary. On top of the re-certification, Boeing will have a serious PR job to do with the travelling public.

On the other hand since no airline is using the MAX, the pop-up doesn’t mean much and is easy for them to add.

If/when an airline they work with starts using the MAX again, they will probably just remove that pop-up and keep quiet about it.

banie01 · 26-10-2019 08:56PM

More bad news for Boeing in so far as another income stream is lost and it also doesn't bode well for their participation in any future Minuteman upgrades or replacement programme.

https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2019/10/22/boeing-could-be-out-of-the-air-forces-competition-for-next-gen-icbms-for-good/

Henry Ford III · 30-10-2019 06:56PM

cnocbui wrote: »

They won't be scrapping the Max, the fix will get regulatory approval and they will all be flying again after that. The amount of money involved is far too large to be putting safety first. Trump has wound back and neutered every regulatory oversight of commerce you can think of. The FAA won't be allowed to harm Boeing.

Yes that'll probably happen ok. I did say "should" and not "would" btw.

p.s. If another one goes down after getting it's certification back though it's curtains for the 737 Max imho.

Damien360 · 30-10-2019 07:02PM

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Yes that'll probably happen ok. I did say "should" and not "would" btw.

p.s. If another one goes down after getting it's certification back though it's curtains for the 737 Max imho.

In what timeframe ? 2 years later ? Then they can deflect and look for other causes. I get the impression that if only one plane had crashed with this fault, they would still be unsure. Remember Boeing tried unsuccessfully to blame the foreign pilots.

I agree it will fly again but it might be US only for a timeframe to assure other nations.

Van.Bosch · 30-10-2019 07:30PM

L1011 wrote: »

NG production has officially ended, only the KLM mistake frame (and some military varients) is left to be made. Would be slightly embarrassing to resume sales and production

It would but less embarrassing than having no short haul planes to sell at all

Henry Ford III · 30-10-2019 08:10PM

Damien360 wrote: »

In what timeframe ? 2 years later ? Then they can deflect and look for other causes. I get the impression that if only one plane had crashed with this fault, they would still be unsure. Remember Boeing tried unsuccessfully to blame the foreign pilots.

I agree it will fly again but it might be US only for a timeframe to assure other nations.

If a 737 Max crashes after recertification anywhere and at any time the MCAS will be a prime suspect.

Ultimately the airlines won't purchase an aircraft that it's passengers won't fly in.

cml387 · 30-10-2019 08:32PM

I imagine passengers getting on the first Max flight after recertification being a bit like those poor bathers being persuaded by the mayor to go back into the sea in Jaws.

Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

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