Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

ToBeFrank123 · 23-10-2019 11:35AM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Many affluent areas had a majority vote in favour of Leave too.

The biggest indicator of voting Leave was age, closely followed by formal educational attainment level.

No problem with the age thing, but educational attainment I don't think played a big part.

Leavers range from Oxford educated BoJo down to people who left school at 15 and who probably feel they can no longer compete for jobs because of their lack of education. I'd imagine UK tradesmen for example are upset at competition from eastern Europeans who can do the job just as well but a lot cheaper. Fishermen are not happy having to compete with EU fishermen.

There were more leave conservative constituencies than labour ones, but a good majority of both.

As for the age thing, yes older people shafted the young with Brexit. However the young will be old some day and will probably do the same to the next generation. The old care less about the future and more about enjoying the present.

An Ciarraioch · 23-10-2019 11:41AM

One wonders about the inadvertent damage that Brexit will have done to Ireland's political image among ordinary Europeans - was in Brussels for a few days, the shopkeepers occasionally inquire about their customers' nationality, and one was vaguely aware about an Irish connection with Brexit, but thought it meant we would be leaving along with the UK! This was only a few streets away from the European Parliament, so one worries about how widespread this impression would be within the member states most distant from Britain.

lawred2 · 23-10-2019 11:48AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

One wonders about the inadvertent damage that Brexit will have done to Ireland's political image among ordinary Europeans - was in Brussels for a few days, the shopkeepers occasionally inquire about their customers' nationality, and one was vaguely aware about an Irish connection with Brexit, but thought it meant we would be leaving along with the UK! This was only a few streets away from the European Parliament, so one worries about how widespread this impression would be within the member states most distant from Britain.

I wouldn't really worry about what a shopkeeper in Belgium knows or doesn't know about Ireland.

I doubt too many Irish shopkeepers are familiar with the geopolitical workings of Belgium.

prawnsambo · 23-10-2019 11:51AM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

No problem with the age thing, but educational attainment I don't think played a big part.

Leavers range from Oxford educated BoJo down to people who left school at 15 and who probably feel they can no longer compete for jobs because of their lack of education. I'd imagine UK tradesmen for example are upset at competition from eastern Europeans who can do the job just as well but a lot cheaper. Fishermen are not happy having to compete with EU fishermen.

There were more leave conservative constituencies than labour ones, but a good majority of both.

As for the age thing, yes older people shafted the young with Brexit. However the young will be old some day and will probably do the same to the next generation. The old care less about the future and more about enjoying the present.

This is a breakdown on this site.

A majority (57%) of those with a university degree voted to remain, as did 64% of those with a higher degree and more than four in five (81%) of those still in full time education. Among those whose formal education ended at secondary school or earlier, a large majority voted to leave.

Zubeneschamali · 23-10-2019 11:52AM

BarryD2 wrote: »

It seems that he'll have to go with a 3 month extension at least. If he goes for a short one

I don't understand why people are talking about what Johnson might request.

He already requested a flextension to January 31st.

Tea Shock · 23-10-2019 11:58AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't understand why people are talking about what Johnson might request.

He already requested a flextension to January 31st.

Section 3 of the Benn Act obliged Johnson to accept an extension to 31 January 2020 if offered, and allowed him to either accept an offer or ask the House of Commons to accept an offer of any other date.

Zubeneschamali · 23-10-2019 12:05PM

Tea Shock wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
Section 3 of the Benn Act obliged Johnson to accept an extension to 31 January 2020 if offered, and allowed him to either accept an offer or ask the House of Commons to accept an offer of any other date.

True, but that does not change the fact that what he asked for was a flextension to Jan 31st:

I am writing therefore to inform the European Council that the United Kingdom is seeking a further extension to the period provided under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty. The United Kingdom proposes that this period should end at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. If the parties are able to ratify before this date, the Government proposes that the period should be terminated early.

ToBeFrank123 · 23-10-2019 12:13PM

Onwards to the next cliff edge. Its moving but at a snails pace.

The next question is can Johnson get his election?

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 12:13PM

Corbyn asks Johnson at pmq why if he promises that standards and workers rights will be enhanced they were removed from the legally binding wa. Johnson does not answer the question because the answer is he is almost certainly lying when he makes that promise. There is no logical reason to remove them other than to hold them as bargaining chips in negotiating future trade deals.

ancapailldorcha · 23-10-2019 12:14PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Onwards to the next cliff edge. Its moving but at a snails pace.

The next question is can Johnson get his election?

If he secures an extension then I would think so. I can't see him winning by the margin he needs to get his deal through comfortably though.

BonnieSituation · 23-10-2019 12:16PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/db50ce98-55f0-4fad-a51b-d03bc468ccec

Go to 10:33:15 seconds.

Cheers. Still away supporting the "Boys in (Darker) Green (since we messed up against the Kiwis)" so you guys, for better or worse, are my Brexit eyes and ears.

Tea Shock · 23-10-2019 12:22PM

No checks between GB and NI says Johnson

The exact opposite of what his own Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said to a select committee hearing less than 2 days ago! :rolleyes:

devnull · 23-10-2019 12:24PM

Tea Shock wrote: »

No checks between GB and NI says Johnson

The exact opposite of what his own Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said to a select committee hearing less than 2 days ago! :rolleyes:

Truth and Johnson are rather strange bedfellows.

He keeps saying that his deal got through Parliament last night, despite the fact it hasn't.

He's a compulsive liar.

Quin_Dub · 23-10-2019 12:31PM

devnull wrote: »

Truth and Johnson are rather strange bedfellows.

He keeps saying that his deal got through Parliament last night, despite the fact it hasn't.

He's a compulsive liar.

Well - It is the only vote that he has won as PM , so he's bound to be a bit excited.

From some perspectives the fact that the initial vote was passed by a ~30 majority is probably a sign that the basic support is there, so on some levels he's managed more than May ever did.

But given the defeat of the 2nd vote there are at least 15 or so of those who supported the 1st vote who are worried that there is a gotcha somewhere in the weeds that will make them change their mind and as such want a lot more than 3 days to review the deep level details.

So he's absolutely definitely not in the clear yet.

SeaBreezes · 23-10-2019 12:32PM

##Mod Snip##

Please don't link dump

Explain the link , give your opinion on it etc. Don't just drop it in the thread.

Thanks

jimmycrackcorm · 23-10-2019 12:33PM

Tea Shock wrote: »

No checks between GB and NI says Johnson

The exact opposite of what his own Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said to a select committee hearing less than 2 days ago! :rolleyes:

Why do the UK have to have checks between NI and GB though? They can for example use their magic technological solutions.

Letwin_Larry · 23-10-2019 12:35PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is a breakdown on this site.

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

lawred2 · 23-10-2019 12:39PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If he secures an extension then I would think so. I can't see him winning by the margin he needs to get his deal through comfortably though.

There is no way that the EU aren't going to facilitate.

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 12:41PM

Its johnsons second vote win to be exact. Given their rarity, wouldnt want to deny him that!

As regards that majority of 30, if you take out the 14 lab mps who then opposed the second and more important motion, that majority effectively reduces to 2. Going forward as bill gets more and more fine print scrutiny, i would fancy him to lose more support for it than he would gain, notwithstanding how it might be amended.

prawnsambo · 23-10-2019 12:45PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

Yes. But it also raises the question of motivation. Why people vote the way they do is of interest to everyone who is trying to influence a vote or plan a campaign.

Letwin_Larry · 23-10-2019 12:49PM

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

woejus · 23-10-2019 12:50PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

Tired Gardener · 23-10-2019 12:55PM

If the EU grant another extension; which they will more than likely do, as they don't want to be the ones to Kickstart a No Deal Brexit, I hope they add in a few clauses, and also grant a year. This should be enough for the UK parliament to sort it self out.

Now the question is what should the clauses be? A second referendum, a general election, or both.

Either way the EU have been more than accommodating, all the delay and confusion is coming out of the house of parliament.

If a general election is called for, I doubt Labour would vote to have one until there is a referendum. The Whole Brexit mess is due to infighting within the Tory party and then trying to poach UKIP voters, so changing to a Labour government, would mean that Labour is stuck with the job of cleaning up the Tory mess.

Brexit continues to be a poisoned chalice, hopefully Boris Johnson's career will be it's next victim.

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 12:56PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

Quite arguable position to hold i would think. Whether he has committed one or more career ending indiscretions is debatable, but bar for leaders behaviour is being pushed lower and lower, the tolerance for lying becoming alarmingly higher and higher. Post-truth or whatever you want to call it.

Letwin_Larry · 23-10-2019 12:58PM

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

indeed. there's no question this has divided communities and families along generational lines. i know personally of quite a few cases where parents and grandparents have fallen-out with younger family members over this.

Sunday roast & Yorkshire pudd may never be the same again!:eek:

josip · 23-10-2019 01:08PM

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

But everyone still alive who voted in the first referendum is now 3 years older and on average more conservative.

It's not as simple as old leavers have been replaced by young remainers.

Varta · 23-10-2019 01:08PM

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

prawnsambo · 23-10-2019 01:08PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

I think that depends on where you get the data to make that assertion from. Johnson is cheerled from the rafters by the Telegraph, Mail etc. And we know why that is. None of those organs will do anything to portray him as anything worse than a lovable rogue. When people say that stuff doesn't stick, they are mostly basing that on how he's portrayed in the media.

But it was interesting to see the booing and other verbal attacks he was getting when he went walkabout in various UK towns and cities recently. Was roundly booed when he went to see Nicola Sturgeon, in Wales when he went to meet Mark Drakeford and in England at the chicken farm (among many others). Even the polls that are quoted to show that he's the most popular leader are pretty much damning with faint praise. Varying between 30% and 40%; not exactly resounding.

BonnieSituation · 23-10-2019 01:14PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/db50ce98-55f0-4fad-a51b-d03bc468ccec

Go to 10:33:15 seconds.

Interesting use of words by the SoS.

"Dublin doesn't have a veto. We need to talk to them"

Water John · 23-10-2019 01:17PM

No 10 has the impression and expressed it to Corbyn that, the French would veto the Ext.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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