South Park WW ROLE MADNESS - Game Thread

I'm struggling to keep up and won't be around for the evening. Desperately thinking who to vote for.

Frank WW wrote: »

I'm just after voting Regan. What is it that they admitted?

Regan said they have a role that won’t activate until day three.

I don’t believe a wolf admits that. If anything, it’s probably slapped a massive target on Regans back now. The wolves will be wondering if they have to hit Regan quickly now, or risk whatever power that is activating.

The wolves would have clarified to Regan in the backroom what such a power entails.

It’s either a relatively new player possibly making a mistake, or a really intelligent wolf trying to buy themselves a few days. A jester certainly doesn’t create a story that encourages the village to leave the, alive.

Eva WW wrote: »

Regan said they have a role that won’t activate until day three.

I don’t believe a wolf admits that. If anything, it’s probably slapped a massive target on Regans back now. The wolves will be wondering if they have to hit Regan quickly now, or risk whatever power that is activating.

The wolves would have clarified to Regan in the backroom what such a power entails.

It’s either a relatively new player possibly making a mistake, or a really intelligent wolf trying to buy themselves a few days. A jester certainly doesn’t create a story that encourages the village to leave the, alive.

Well, a somewhat intelligent wolf play would suffice other than really intelligent. I'd be disinclined to give the claim much in the way of village points myself

Frank WW wrote: »

Well, a somewhat intelligent wolf play would suffice other than really intelligent. I'd be disinclined to give the claim much in the way of village points myself

Frank WW wrote: »

Skimming

I'm not really available at the weekends to play. Only get to post during the week. I've skimmed, I've checked the vote counter for yesterday, saw there was a load of people on no lynch, which I as a rule do not like and I've put them in my ffa for that.

Regan has claimed to have some role that reveals itself on day3, but that's neither villager or wolf imo. Could easily be a wolf looking to buy time, especially when it was softed before it was claimed and when they already got votes day1.

Fair enough.

I hate the no lynch vote yesterday.

Not sure where to fall on Regan. Phils spot above has me weary of them. Why bother lying?

As well as trying to sort out who’s up for the chop tonight, should we also be trying to compile a few options for Jester incase there’s any good bullets lying around and someone gets trigger happy?

Emily WW wrote: »

Fair enough.

I hate the no lynch vote yesterday.

Not sure where to fall on Regan. Phils spot above has me weary of them. Why bother lying?

It does seem strange that they wouldn't remember who they interacted with over a sustained period in thread. I'd usually remember that myself. In particular, I'd be marking the card of the person who gave me a hard time.

Wendy WW wrote: »

Regan is a female name?

I'd be inclined to believe it is

Lucy WW wrote: »

Considering I would have been wrongly lynched thanks to Orla and Wendy, I'm glad no vote won.

Fair point.

I am also very wary of people saying "FFA cos they voted no lynch". It is an extremely easy option for a Wolf now

Phil WW wrote: »

Is it #FFA1 or #FFA2?

This is my FFA for Monday

Regan - after a recent conversation with him regarding Steve, Regan said he doesn’t think he has chatted to Steve. I was going back over Steve the ultimate power givers posts and there’s a full blown conversation between them. Blatant lie from Regan. Villagers need not lie.

Wendy - could Wendy be a wolf pretending to be the jester in order to not get voted? But then Wendy could just be the jester. Something wrong here regardless.

Liam - yesterday Liam came into thread asking why 2 people had bolded their posts. His next post right after was about wishes. I went back over the posts where wishes were requested and there had been 10. I raised this with Liam but he has ignored my question so far.

Lucy WW wrote: »

Whats the story with Gabriel?

Havent noticed her on since this morning when she was going at it with Senan.

I said at the time that I thought it could have been a bit of over acting on both of their parts. Still debating that

Frank WW wrote: »

Is gabriel a female name ?

Not sure and dont really care

Emily WW wrote: »

Not sure and dont really care

Ok grumpy socks.

Wendy WW wrote: »

Regan is a female name?

So is Wendy and Clodagh and many others don't think it makes any odds, they could have been just random name allocations.
List:

Abigail WW
Angus WW
Barbara WW
Brendan WW
Clodagh WW
Conor WW
Derry WW
Desmond WW
Doris WW
Emily WW
Eva WW
Ewan WW
Fiona WW
Frank WW
Gabriel WW
Gertrude WW
Henry WW
Holly WW
Isla WW
Liam WW
Lucy WW
Mary WW
Oisin WW
Orla WW
Patrick WW
Phil WW
Regan WW
Senan WW
Steve WW
Vernon WW
Wendy WW
Winifred WW

No lynch - Barbara / Regan / Ewan / Oisin / Conor / Phil / Liam / Lucy
Lucy - Wendy / Winifred / Orla / Vernon / Henry
Steve - Emily / Gertrude / Patrick

Crossing out people on my current "Trust" list....

Senan, I think, raised the point about "Would wolves really vote into those categories. Absolutely. Every game, night one, the wolves will spread out a bit, but there'll always be one in each wagon, if not two. Its "safe" votes that you can justify later in the game. "Oh, everyone was voting that way, so I did too cause I didn't know where else to vote".

The list of "Didn't votes".

Didn't vote: Abigail, Angus, Derry, Fiona, Frank, Gabriel, Holly, Mary

So, here's my current stance on that. If any of them were posting, and CHOSE not to vote, I'm inclined to take a lot of them off the wolf list currently. My instinct is the wolves would mostly try and vote, so as not to draw that sort of negative attention, via self-votes.

Would a wolf choose not to vote? Possibly. Would multiple wolves choose not to vote? I don't believe so.

But I'd put money on there being at least one wolf in the No Lynchs, one in the Lucy votes (especially if we trust Derry and Lucy aren't working together, and Lucy is peeked good), and possibly one in Steve

Which means I'd see it currently as...

No Lynch - At least 1/8 chance of hitting a wolf. 1/7 if we choose to believe Derry is legit with the peek. And I think its safe to say Derry did get that peek, even if the result might be a lie.
Lucy - 1/5 chance of hitting a wolf. Based on the fact I have decent leans on Wendy and Henry, I'd personally have 1/3 (Unless my reads are wrong, which there's a strong chance they are :pac:)
Steve - Would a wolf have jumped on that possible wagon, or what they thought would be a stronger wagon? If so, possibly a 1/3 chance there too. Can't see there being two on him though.

Worth noting Regan and Steve both got three votes, but Regan seems less of a wagon as the vote deadline was approaching. But I wanted to point out that its possible there was a wolf in there, and not look like I've left that off because I'm one of the three who voted him.

If you believe a wolf would have thrown a vote on Steve because there was a mini-wagon being talked about on him, that's the safest 1/3 bet on the three top options.