Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2 · 19-10-2019 10:49PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not half as bad as John Baron in the chamber during the week! The idea of multiple letters has been floated for a while though, hasnt it? Just feels a bit obvious and, while im no expert, i cant see it getting them very far.

The mentality of the average English voter is a strange thing. I can only assume that Johnson would not have done this if he thought it would cost him support on the ground. How this comes accross as anything other than patethic childishness in front of other leaders I do not understand. We would be rightly ashamed if our leaders acted like this, and yet it seems in England this behaviour is not only acceptable but welcome in some quarters.

LeinsterDub · 19-10-2019 10:50PM

Donnielighto wrote: »

Could the EU send invitations to each of the parliments in the UK welcoming them and offering EU membership. Not gloating at all but just be genuine and say that we'd be happy to see them continue as European citizens. No badness, maliciousness or windup.

No that would be interfering with internal politics of a member state. Something the EU doesn't do

Strazdas · 19-10-2019 10:50PM

liamtech wrote: »

Sky News apparently has a copy of the second letter requesting that, in effect, the first mandatory BENN letter should be ignored - urging the EU not to grant an extension

I cant find this letter anywhere does anyone have a link?

shocking stuff - having a scoop but set into this now- long night to see what happens - Tusk has GOTTA RESPOND dont we think?? - i have faith that Tusk will have something to say on this latest ridiculous stunt

Here you go:

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1185666939869388800

Edit: that is letter No.2 to Tusk, the one he actually signed

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2019 10:51PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

On that topic Stephanie Bolzen who is a german reporter based in London, who i find very good, was on sky yesterday saying she didnt think it would be plain sailing for the scots to get eu membership in the event of independence. Not sure of why, but was intetested to hear her opinion all the same.

I just cant see the EU ignoring its former family members on a life raft that has escaped the sinking HMS Brittannia.

RickBlaine · 19-10-2019 10:51PM

Water John wrote: »

The idea of forcing a Ref on this now comes up. It only lost by 12 votes when it was put before. Now the DUP may support it. If they put a bit of thought into it, they would feel better with all the UK staying in the EU as opposed to checks in the Irish Sea.

If a confirmatory referendum amendment was passed, I wonder how the government would vote. Would they vote against their own deal because it would lead to a second ref (surely then quickly leading to a GE), or would they still vote for it despite the second ref. Interesting to ponder that.

liamtech · 19-10-2019 10:53PM

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7592073/Boris-Johnson-sends-THREE-letters-EU-one-urge-Brussels-NOT-grant-delay.html

3 letters from daily mail

Joe_ Public · 19-10-2019 10:53PM

Tea Shock wrote: »

I reckon the sending of multiple letters was not the big master plan to circumvent the Benn Act

I reckon the passing of the deal without the accompanying legislation was the master plan....and the Letwin amendment sniffed them out.

You could well be right. Either way though, parliament has the better of them again. Theyd probably hsve found a way of ataching a ref if they needed. Johnson possibly left with the option of running to the people complaining about all the parliament bullies not leaving him alone!

Joe_ Public · 19-10-2019 10:57PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I just cant see the EU ignoring its former family members on a life raft that has escaped the sinking HMS Brittannia.

You could be right. Id have assumed same, but i find bolzen a reliable reporter so i was just struck by that opinion. Not sure how accurate it might be though.

ancapailldorcha · 19-10-2019 11:03PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Ok, I've cleared up a few off topic and below standard posts. Please bear the charter in mind when posting. Many thanks.

A sanction has been issued and posts deleted.

briany · 19-10-2019 11:11PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

If a confirmatory referendum amendment was passed, I wonder how the government would vote. Would they vote against their own deal because it would lead to a second ref (surely then quickly leading to a GE), or would they still vote for it despite the second ref. Interesting to ponder that.

If I was a government MP, I'd be chomping at the bit to wash my hands of the matter at this stage. The parliamentary deadlock is interminable. Because Brexit has so successfully pitted parliament v. the people, parliament should f*** the issue back at the people and let the people blame themselves for a change.

fr336 · 19-10-2019 11:14PM

Sky News saying that one amendment put in front of house this week could be for a permanent customs union for all of UK. Which the DUP could back. And Boris would be screwed.

liamtech · 19-10-2019 11:15PM

Is there not a real clear and present danger of Loyalist violence in the north because of this deal? Assuming it gets through which - i wont even call

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1185666820734357505?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1185663135161733120?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://news.sky.com/story/an-awful-betrayal-why-the-dup-rejects-the-pms-new-brexit-deal-11839001

Like i am saying this in all sincerity - this has a historical precedent - Regardless of what we think of Jamie Bryson and his ilk, and regardless of what we generally think of the opinions espoused by Loyalism - Right wing loyalism brought down Sunningdale and the Anglo Irish agreement in the 80s - it amplified the troubles to a great extent - and as Bonnie Greer said the GFA was almost a truce - a cease fire -

Is there a real possibility that if this goes through - we see that cease fire end?

and is not the only rational way to avoid that - to somehow stop Brexit to return to the status quo?

Letwin_Larry · 19-10-2019 11:16PM

fr336 wrote: »

Sky News saying that one amendment put in front of house this week could be for a permanent customs union for all of UK. Which the DUP could back. And Boris would be screwed.

looks like the DUP will have travelled some journey.
all of a sudden they could become the saviours of Remainers.

LeinsterDub · 19-10-2019 11:19PM

fr336 wrote: »

Sky News saying that one amendment put in front of house this week could be for a permanent customs union for all of UK. Which the DUP could back. And Boris would be screwed.

Basically back to the May deal. Also NI would still be in the single market while GB wouldn't be

devnull · 19-10-2019 11:21PM

Here's the British press reaction

Mail

Express

LeinsterDub · 19-10-2019 11:23PM

devnull wrote: »

Here's the British press reaction

Mail

Express

So not a picture of Boris in a ditch then, no ? Quelle surprise

devnull · 19-10-2019 11:24PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

So not a picture of Boris in a ditch then, no ? Quelle surprise

His argument will be it's not from him.

Navanboyo · 19-10-2019 11:26PM

Sorry if this has been asked before but I thought i seen something around the date of the actual court decision that specifically said that Boris had to send a letter and I thought it also said he could not do anything in addition to frustrate that.

I think that was because the idea of a second letter was being floated at the time.

If this was the case, is there not a legal case now that he has to answer before the courts?

Like i said i am not really sure about this and am probably wrong.

Thanks in advance.

Letwin_Larry · 19-10-2019 11:27PM

devnull wrote: »

Here's the British press reaction

Mail

Express

i just got off the phone with my sis who has been in London since the 1970s. her husband is a cockney (Essex really) LEAVER. dislikes us Paddies (even though he's married to one???!!)
her kids work in the City and are REMAINERS.
she was close to tears. said the family is torn apart. arguments every night.
not a pretty picture.

LeinsterDub · 19-10-2019 11:27PM

devnull wrote: »

His argument will be it's not from him.

He can argue what he likes. He's the Prime Minister and as head of HM government he has sent a request for an extension.

Junkyard Tom · 19-10-2019 11:28PM

Is there any chance we could avoid linking to that shit-stirring dissident unionist's twitter account? He feeds on attention - I'd say well over half his 'followers' are there to laugh at the guy.

Strazdas · 19-10-2019 11:29PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i just got off the phone with my sis who has been in London since the 1970s. her husband is a cockney (Essex really) LEAVER. dislikes us Paddies (even though he's married to one???!!)
her kids work in the City and are REMAINERS.
she was close to tears. said the family is torn apart. arguments every night.
not a pretty picture.

This is the real legacy of Cameron's referendum. He failed to anticipate just how deeply divisive and polarising it would.

devnull · 19-10-2019 11:29PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i just got off the phone with my sis who has been in London since the 1970s. her husband is a cockney (Essex really) LEAVER. dislikes us Paddies (even though he's married to one???!!)
her kids work in the City and are REMAINERS.
she was close to tears. said the family is torn apart. arguments every night.
not a pretty picture.

Lots of families tore apart, my family is mixture of Irish and English and I've discussed the issues in my family on here before, but there are arguments on a regular basis here as well and I actively try and steer any conversation away from Brexit as it will never, ever work out well.

There's a real generation divide when it comes to Brexit.

Letwin_Larry · 19-10-2019 11:37PM

devnull wrote: »

Lots of families tore apart, my family is mixture of Irish and English and I've discussed the issues in my family on here before, but there are arguments on a regular basis here as well and I actively try and steer any conversation away from Brexit as it will never, ever work out well.

There's a real generation divide when it comes to Brexit.

i lived with them in the 80s. Essex. got to know him quite well. nice guy, but loves to hate outsiders, blacks, Irish, Muslims. West Ham supporter. like i said he ended up marrying an irishgirl from co. Mayo.
been rattling on about leaving the EU for ages now. reckons they are subsidising the rest of us.
both his kids have very good City jobs in finance, and see this as a real threat to their careers.
i'm due to go over there for Halloween, but am having 2nd thoughts, as i usually speak my mind after a few scoops.

Imreoir2 · 19-10-2019 11:40PM

liamtech wrote: »

Is there not a real clear and present danger of Loyalist violence in the north because of this deal? Assuming it gets through which - i wont even call

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1185666820734357505?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1185663135161733120?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://news.sky.com/story/an-awful-betrayal-why-the-dup-rejects-the-pms-new-brexit-deal-11839001

Like i am saying this in all sincerity - this has a historical precedent - Regardless of what we think of Jamie Bryson and his ilk, and regardless of what we generally think of the opinions espoused by Loyalism - Right wing loyalism brought down Sunningdale and the Anglo Irish agreement in the 80s - it amplified the troubles to a great extent - and as Bonnie Greer said the GFA was almost a truce - a cease fire -

Is there a real possibility that if this goes through - we see that cease fire end?

and is not the only rational way to avoid that - to somehow stop Brexit to return to the status quo?

The antics of Bryson and his mates over the last few years suggest that they could not organise a bouncy castle, nevermind a serious protest movement. The last serious attempt at a protest by loyalism resulted in an expencive caravan that was empty most of the time.

Time will tell if further impoverishment is a cause that will motivate the people to come out and support these headbangers, but I somehow doubt it.

trellheim · 19-10-2019 11:41PM

On that topic Stephanie Bolzen who is a german reporter based in London, who i find very good, was on sky yesterday saying she didnt think it would be plain sailing for the scots to get eu membership in the event of independence. Not sure of why, but was intetested to hear her opinion all the same.

Its because they want to scare off Catalonia and Basque regions from secession.

CarPark2 · 19-10-2019 11:46PM

trellheim wrote: »

Its because they want to scare off Catalonia and Basque regions from secession.

That was valid while the UK were a member state. They could have blocked an independent Scotland from joining (and would have been strongly supported by Spain). I don’t know if it would still stand after Brexit it would suit the EU for Brexit to be a disaster, so they might welcome Scotland joining as an expression of that disastrous outcome.

liamtech · 19-10-2019 11:53PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The antics of Bryson and his mates over the last few years suggest that they could not organise a bouncy castle, nevermind a serious protest movement. The last serious attempt at a protest by loyalism resulted in an expencive caravan that was empty most of the time.

Time will tell if further impoverishment is a cause that will motivate the people to come out and support these headbangers, but I somehow doubt it.

Ye see i agree and disagree with you on this - Bryson is inept yes but this has the possibility of spilling on to the global stage - the flag protest riots made global headlines around the world - this will be BIGGER, because the issue is bigger

I agree that it is unfortunate - and that the current deal (saying this as someone who wouldnt support brexit) is the inevitable result of the referendum result hitting the GFA agreement - incompatibility - and that the current deal technically works - but the loyalists cannot support it - this is a serious problem

if they could only see that the best pragmatic solution is to just go back to the people and get brexit over turned -

Joe_ Public · 19-10-2019 11:54PM

Navanboyo wrote: »

Sorry if this has been asked before but I thought i seen something around the date of the actual court decision that specifically said that Boris had to send a letter and I thought it also said he could not do anything in addition to frustrate that.

I think that was because the idea of a second letter was being floated at the time.

If this was the case, is there not a legal case now that he has to answer before the courts?

Like i said i am not really sure about this and am probably wrong.

Thanks in advance.

I'm no legal eagle but fwiw, i think you're spot on. There is a clause warning him against trying to frustrate the bill so at a minimum he is guilty of breaching the spirit of the law. Very likely this will go to court. Now maybe that is what he actually wants to happen but they need to pursue it i think otherwise you are simply permitting people in power to misbehave without consequence.

19-10-2019 11:54PM

trellheim wrote: »

Its because they want to scare off Catalonia and Basque regions from secession.

A Scotland that follows a legalistic independence process will be a candidate for EU membership but it won't be automatic like some presented it in the past eg Scotland leaves the UK on Dec 31st and joins the EU on Jan 1st.

The UK has various structures and bodies that comply with and enforce EU law and regulations. Scotland (today) has certain devolved powers but it is not an established country with the ability to regulate it's own markets for example.

It shouldn't take too long but it won't be immediate.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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