Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public · 18-10-2019 08:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What time do events kick off tomorrow? (not the rugby, the politics)

They'll be in the chamber from 9.30 but there wont be any voting until the afternoon when they start to debate the amendments. From reading various reports doesnt seem likely to me that a vote on the deal will come anytime sooner than early evening, though dont quote me on that. It's even possible they wont vote on it at all tomorrow, depending on what happens with earlier amendments. Still all a bit up in the air i'd say.

J Mysterio · 18-10-2019 08:46PM

I can't see Blackfords ammendment being selected, so will probably be the other two only.

Headshot · 18-10-2019 08:48PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I can't see Blackfords ammendment being selected, so will probably be the other two only.

I'm surprised there's no confirmation referendum amendment

RobMc59 · 18-10-2019 08:52PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The underlying reason for the chaos and failure of it's politics is that the fault lines of the UK have become exposed - it's essentially English-centric (meaning select parts of England) nature. Nothing matters all that much and in diminishing degrees of importance outside those parts.

I can`t argue with you about the current UK government`s reckless behaviour but please don`t `tar everyone with the same brush`-ordinary people do care.

RobMc59 · 18-10-2019 08:56PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Your assumption is that Labour takes a position that people will believe. They will only do this if someone like Starmer becomes the next leader who has been a staunch Remainer, otherwise the Lib Dems will take votes from Labour. They will take votes from them from those that voted Remain, the 16 million voters that will see how Labour leadership has abdicated responsibility by asking about anything other than Brexit during PMQ's thus signalling their ambivalence towards Brexit and then by allowing Brexit to happen by having their MP's be the deciding votes to allow Brexit.

You can see it once Swinson became leader of the Lib Dems and the attack dogs was out looking at her voting record. Instead of going after the Tories they knew where the biggest threat was and it wasn't the Tories but the Lib Dems.

Either way, I hope we never find out who is right in this scenario as it will be very bad for the UK if this deal gets through tomorrow.

By the Uk I assume you must mean the government, and they don't care about the Union, why else would they have had the ERG and DUP for updates on Brexit but not the Scottish or Welsh Governments for updates?

The current UK government are a bunch of hooray henry chancers who don`t care about anyone except themselves,least of all NI or the rest of us `plebs`who where`nt born with a silver spoon in their mouth!:eek:

Joe_ Public · 18-10-2019 08:56PM

Headshot wrote: »

I'm surprised there's no confirmation referendum amendment

There actually is, but it's on the second motion tabled by the government, which is in favour of a no deal brexit. Obviously, they'll only table it in the event the first motion (the PM's deal) isn't passed. Could be interesting if we do reach that point, not at all certain about it though.

Varta · 18-10-2019 09:04PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Your assumption is that Labour takes a position that people will believe. They will only do this if someone like Starmer becomes the next leader who has been a staunch Remainer, otherwise the Lib Dems will take votes from Labour. They will take votes from them from those that voted Remain, the 16 million voters that will see how Labour leadership has abdicated responsibility by asking about anything other than Brexit during PMQ's thus signalling their ambivalence towards Brexit and then by allowing Brexit to happen by having their MP's be the deciding votes to allow Brexit.

You can see it once Swinson became leader of the Lib Dems and the attack dogs was out looking at her voting record. Instead of going after the Tories they knew where the biggest threat was and it wasn't the Tories but the Lib Dems.

Either way, I hope we never find out who is right in this scenario as it will be very bad for the UK if this deal gets through tomorrow.

By the Uk I assume you must mean the government, and they don't care about the Union, why else would they have had the ERG and DUP for updates on Brexit but not the Scottish or Welsh Governments for updates?

Oh I absolutely assume that it won't be Corbyn leading Labour.

Junkyard Tom · 18-10-2019 09:05PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leo Varadkar reassures the unionist people..

Having been conditioned by years of 'Unionist outrage/fury' etc when anyone south of the border 'dares' to open their mouth, it's almost jarring to witness how unburdened Leo Varadkar is by it all.

Joe_ Public · 18-10-2019 09:14PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Those voting breakdowns all show Philip Lee voting for a deal even though hes a Lib Dem mp. How can he be voting yes? I cant believe thats right, theyd surely never have let him join party as a brexit backer.

Realising my mistake now. The rebel Lib Dem mp is Norman Lamb, not Philip Lee, and Lamb is stepping down before next election so doesnt care if he defies his party. Still not confirmed one way or the other yet, though.

kingbhome · 18-10-2019 09:19PM

What's the odds on them voting a no deal tomorrow. I've a feeling we're in for a shock

road_high · 18-10-2019 09:20PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Having been conditioned by years of 'Unionist outrage/fury' etc when anyone south of the border 'dares' to open their mouth, it's almost jarring to witness how unburdened Leo Varadkar is by it all.

I love it. They need a few home truths. I didn’t think BoJo would be the one to deliver it to them so directly though. Not did they! Sammy Wilson appears slightly stunned by the betrayal

FrancieBrady · 18-10-2019 09:24PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I can`t argue with you about the current UK government`s reckless behaviour but please don`t `tar everyone with the same brush`-ordinary people do care.

Not in recent polls. They would prefer Brexit to the UK staying intact it seems.

supremenovice · 18-10-2019 09:27PM

kingbhome wrote: »

What's the odds on them voting a no deal tomorrow. I've a feeling we're in for a shock

Ive put €20 on it to pass at 4/6 with Paddy Power. Its 11/10 to fail

Kermit.de.frog · 18-10-2019 09:30PM

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1185116624183017472

Ugh, remainers attacking us now.

Just leave already.

prawnsambo · 18-10-2019 09:32PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Can anyone help me out here and tell me now how I will be affected?

It's too early to know for sure, since we don't have legal texts yet and the UK has legislation to pass. But on the face of it, it would should make very little difference to you as a service provider. VAT may be an issue depending on whether the UK diverge substantially or not from current NI rates. But these issues are a good way down the road (assuming the deal passes in the HoC).

Edit: Your deliveries may cost more since you will have customs clearance to add to the other costs. (I think. - others may have more info on this)

prawnsambo · 18-10-2019 09:37PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1185116624183017472

Ugh, remainers attacking us now.

Just leave already.

Andrew Adonis blew his remainer credentials when he sold out for a run at the EP. So I'd be inclined to give him the two fingered salute on that one.

Strazdas · 18-10-2019 09:59PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1185116624183017472

Ugh, remainers attacking us now.

Just leave already.

A totally inaccurate misreading of the political situation. Varadkar has said repeatedly he is not ready for a united Ireland and thinks it's way too soon to even discuss it.

Mr.Nice Guy · 18-10-2019 10:03PM

Seems there won't be the big vote tomorrow, provided Bercow allows the Letwin amendment?

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1185193150433943552

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1185203110404333568

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1185293037779464194

A pity if true as I was looking forward to a dramatic 'Super Saturday', but this makes it sound more like damp squib Saturday.

At least I'd be able to watch the rugby without having to keep switching channels.

J Mysterio · 18-10-2019 10:05PM

Id be surprised if Bercow wouldn't facilitate a vote on the deal tomorrow. They will vote.

Water John · 18-10-2019 10:13PM

They can have the Letwin vote and if he wins, they can still hold a substantive vote on the main issue. However, it would be indicative and not binding.
Johnson may do that if he thought he had the numbers.

Frank Bullitt · 18-10-2019 10:23PM

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

Enzokk · 18-10-2019 10:24PM

I would be extremely nervous of Johnson trying to ram this through and the ERG supporting basically a deal they couldn't under May. It seems the best option for Remain MPs is to pass the Letwin amendment and then have the time to scrutinize the deal and make changes to the legislation as well. I suspect if they are able to rule out no-deal at the end of the transition the ERG support falls away and suddenly they will find their patriotic love for the Union return and vote with the ERG which dooms the deal either way.

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233325864214528?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233683923513345?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234109871939586?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234273797885952?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234337454841856?s=20

Indestructable · 18-10-2019 10:24PM

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal? I think it's a bit absurd tbh, plenty in the EU have reservations about an extension anyway. Will it be seen as more bollocksology by the UK?

devnull · 18-10-2019 10:26PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The thread by Faisal Islam is the reason Labour should be whipping and voting against this deal

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185182594566111232

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1185182594566111232.html

That's shocking, it makes it very clear who this deal is looking after and it's not the average person on the streets in the UK.

It almost makes Theresa May's deal look good, in fact it is good in comparison.

Enzokk · 18-10-2019 10:30PM

Indestructable wrote: »

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal? I think it's a bit absurd tbh, plenty in the EU have reservations about an extension anyway. Will it be seen as more bollocksology by the UK?

Juncker said it, the 48% were right. The EU would open the UK back with open arms to end this madness, but they will not be used to facilitate no-deal. Once it becomes clear that a government is in charge that would look at revoking article 50 you would see the EU work with the UK government to ensure they have the time and space to make it happen.

So with that in mind, asking for an extension means Johnson doesn't have the votes to pass the deal so there will most likely be a election and who knows what happens after that. The EU will not turn its back on its own citizens in the UK or those that voted remain.

Joe_ Public · 18-10-2019 10:34PM

Isnt the idea of the letwin amendment that extra time would be needed to frame required legislation so eu almost certainly be on board for it. Its not intended as a vehicle to stop brexit in any way.

Mr.Nice Guy · 18-10-2019 10:37PM

Nicholas Watt on Newsnight says Mark Francois revealed minutes ago he will back the deal.

hometruths · 18-10-2019 10:37PM

Oliver Letwin says his amendment forcing an extension request before the vote is purely to ensure that the UK do not fall out of the EU by accident whilst they are trying to pass the legislation required should Johnson's deal pass.

Meanwhile Johnson seems to be making a few friends in the EU who might want to help him get this over the line. It could pan out like this:

The Letwin amendment passes, and Johnson immediately, i.e within minutes requests the extension, writing a letter asking for it saying "Sorry for wasting your time with agreeing a deal, now not going ahead with that vote, I need to request an extension, and the only good reason I can give you for it is that MPs backed Oliver Letwin's amendment."

The EU reply immediately, within minutes, saying "This has gone on long enough, we have told you time and time again, we need a good reason to agree the extension, and the only reason we will agree an extension is if you need time to sort out up the necessary legislation. So go ahead and have the vote and if it passes we will grant an extension to make sure you have plenty of time to take care of legislation. That ought to reassure Letwin and those who voted for his amendment. But, if the WA vote does not pass, you'll have to ask for another extension and we cannot guarantee anything."

Johnson says "Great, we'll crack on with vote. And fellow MPs before you vote, bear in mind that I have already complied with the Benn Act and requested an extension.

Don't see how any of above could a) frustrate Letwin or b) contravene the Benn Act.

briany · 18-10-2019 10:41PM

Indestructable wrote: »

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal?

Good question. I don't particularly want to see the UK leave the EU, but if they did, I'd settle for a reasonable deal and compromise. There are, of course, those within Leave who don't want to compromise and take the UK out of the EU totally clean, but there are those within Remain who could end up bringing about the same result due to insisting on more scrutiny, resulting in more deadlock, and more delay, and, most crucially, EU patience running out.

Not that scrutiny is unimportant, but you do have to wonder at some point if the deal is as good as it gets. Continuing to play cards beyond that point could lead to much trouble.

prawnsambo · 18-10-2019 10:42PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

It sounds like they've decided that there was some sort of fear factor that encourage Johnson to go with the current deal and they're trying to generate a bit of their own. We'll see how popular this is.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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