Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Torsevt · 13-10-2019 08:15AM

I think he'll be fine once he has a deal or a proposed deal for the electorate

Anything else would allow labour and brexit party to move in on voters

Enzokk · 13-10-2019 08:24AM

Torsevt wrote: »

I think he'll be fine once he has a deal or a proposed deal for the electorate

Anything else would allow labour and brexit party to move in on voters

Depends on the deal though. If it is too close to May's deal then Farage will jump on it if they are in a position to have to follow EU regulations and rulings from the ECJ. He has boxed himself in by decrying these aspects of the EU so it would be hard to accept a deal that has them following EU rules. But you cannot get a good deal without following those rules...that is that circle that just doesn't want to be a square.

I believe the phrase is to judge a man on his actions and not his words, so what does this tell you about a Brexit deal?

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1183133327735377920?s=20

"NEW: Queen's Speech to include Immigration Bill to end free movement for EU citizens under UK law"

That screams hard Brexit again, no matter the flowery words of Johnson.

SeaBreezes · 13-10-2019 09:36AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Depends on the deal though. If it is too close to May's deal then Farage will jump on it if they are in a position to have to follow EU regulations and rulings from the ECJ. He has boxed himself in by decrying these aspects of the EU so it would be hard to accept a deal that has them following EU rules. But you cannot get a good deal without following those rules...that is that circle that just doesn't want to be a square.

I believe the phrase is to judge a man on his actions and not his words, so what does this tell you about a Brexit deal?

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1183133327735377920?s=20

"NEW: Queen's Speech to include Immigration Bill to end free movement for EU citizens under UK law"

That screams hard Brexit again, no matter the flowery words of Johnson.

I would agree. Boris does what's best for Boris and his paymasters demand a hard Brexit. Hes trying to stay out of jail and this negotiations take him closer to a hard Brexit deadline without having to ask for an extension.
What's the betting negotiations fail on the 31st?

Joe_ Public · 13-10-2019 10:09AM

If you were only judging by the Sunday Independent (never a clever strategy, i hasten to add), you'd swear this deal was over the line, done and dusted already, merely waiting for the crossed t's and dotted i's. Because there are around 50 copies of the damned paper polluting the local coffee shop (helps the sales figures no end), i took a few minutes to peruse the main headlines and dipped briefly into a couple of the articles. According to one reporter, it was hugely significant that the Varadkar-Johnson meeting lasted as long as it did, as according to one source, these heads of state gatherings invariably only go on for between 5-20 minutes. So, Leo was going all the way to Liverpool for a puny 5 minute tete a tete, this incredibly informative source would have us believe! According to same source, the two PMs have bonded over their shared love of the classics (!) and the fact that Johnson has a kid - one of his 5 or 6, or is it 7? - studying in Trinity College. Just, wow! The level of optimism among all the pieces, just going by the headlines, is just so way ott, you have to question why it didnt occur to them to have somebody there willing to dial it down.

On the plus side, it must be stated that dear old Eoghan Harris is the soul of humility and modesty this morning, praising Michael Martin for the Irish government's apparent 180 degree turn on its backstop policy when, as we all know, it is almost entirely down to Eoghan himself, his tireless campaigning and his enduring capacity to serve his country at its direst need, to be not found wanting when the call came to him.

It isnt just this particular newspaper, though. I heard Tommy Gorman on Morning Ireland on either Thursday or Friday morning and he sounded quite giddy in his reporting of the latest developments. Of course, there's a chance we could be on the road to some sort of acceptable compromise, but it remains a long shot to my mind and some people in the media are in danger of losing the run of themselves imo.

Enzokk · 13-10-2019 10:14AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I would agree. Boris does what's best for Boris and his paymasters demand a hard Brexit. Hes trying to stay out of jail and this negotiations take him closer to a hard Brexit deadline without having to ask for an extension.
What's the betting negotiations fail on the 31st?

Well negotiations doesn't need to fail on the 31st though, they just need to conclude a deal and have it passed in the HoC for them to leave without a deal on the 31st. There is no time left to get everything in place even if he gets a deal and a majority.

This is a thread which shows the possible timings and what is needed to get a deal through in time, which in his opinion isn't enough and it lets Johnson off by not having to ask for an extension.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1183269547308179456?s=20

So is he working to get a deal for a deal, in which case he would know he has to ask for an extension which he has said he wouldn't do? Or is he working for a deal and then he knows he doesn't have to ask for an extension and the UK will by law crash out of the EU, deal passed or not?

threeball · 13-10-2019 10:15AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

Depends on the deal though. If it is too close to May's deal then Farage will jump on it if they are in a position to have to follow EU regulations and rulings from the ECJ. He has boxed himself in by decrying these aspects of the EU so it would be hard to accept a deal that has them following EU rules. But you cannot get a good deal without following those rules...that is that circle that just doesn't want to be a square.

I believe the phrase is to judge a man on his actions and not his words, so what does this tell you about a Brexit deal?

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1183133327735377920?s=20

"NEW: Queen's Speech to include Immigration Bill to end free movement for EU citizens under UK law"

That screams hard Brexit again, no matter the flowery words of Johnson.

I would agree. Boris does what's best for Boris and his paymasters demand a hard Brexit. Hes trying to stay out of jail and this negotiations take him closer to a hard Brexit deadline without having to ask for an extension.
What's the betting negotiations fail on the 31st?

The extension letter will need to be sent on the 19th. The European summit will finish and it's the last chance to get an agreement.

threeball · 13-10-2019 10:20AM

The UK economy is predicted to retract by 7% after brexit. The recession only brought a 4.9% drop. And not all cuts have been removed since so it will be 7% coming off a lower base. There was no red bus with vote for eternal recession on the side. A referendum based on emotion and hate.

Joe_ Public · 13-10-2019 10:27AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Well negotiations doesn't need to fail on the 31st though, they just need to conclude a deal and have it passed in the HoC for them to leave without a deal on the 31st. There is no time left to get everything in place even if he gets a deal and a majority.

This is a thread which shows the possible timings and what is needed to get a deal through in time, which in his opinion isn't enough and it lets Johnson off by not having to ask for an extension.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1183269547308179456?s=20

So is he working to get a deal for a deal, in which case he would know he has to ask for an extension which he has said he wouldn't do? Or is he working for a deal and then he knows he doesn't have to ask for an extension and the UK will by law crash out of the EU, deal passed or not?

This was all flagged up at the time the Benn bill was going through the house. I recall Adam Boulton floating such a scenario, or at least one of a similar vein, to guests on his sky news programme and seems pretty naive to me that those who brought the bill didn't foresee it or, if they did, didn't legislate for it. Still, not sure i can see the PM or his foot soldiers making capital out of it. Would be an extremely controversial way for them to leave and isnt there the possibility anyway that the EU could simply offer a formal extension which would be very hard for the government to refuse with at least some recourse to parliament?

Leroy42 · 13-10-2019 10:28AM

Johnson and everyone in his cabinet has repeatedly stated, and continue to state, that the UK will be leaving the EU come 31st October.

There is no enough time to get a deal through so the only option left is a No Deal.

I find it difficult to understand why the EU are treating anything Johnson has to say with anything resembling confidence. Johnson has lost every vote he has tried in the HoC, he doesn't have a majority and the HoC has made it clear that they want a deal.

And Johnson has done nothing to build consensus, has done nothing to condition the public for the need to accept the overall premise of the TM agreement. So why is anyone thinking that even if Johnson was to want a deal that he has any ability to deliver one?

The EU previously gave TM a massive concession in regard to whole UK backstop, a concession that was ignored as such, and all I see if that the EU may give some additional concessions, such as a vote for NI, and the deal still won't get passed but that is now the new base.

And the UK start the process all over again.

hometruths · 13-10-2019 10:29AM

Enzokk wrote: »

So is he working to get a deal for a deal, in which case he would know he has to ask for an extension which he has said he wouldn't do? Or is he working for a deal and then he knows he doesn't have to ask for an extension and the UK will by law crash out of the EU, deal passed or not?

Johnson will be more than happy to ask for an extension if the purpose is to tie up the detail around a deal is has managed to pass in the commons. That would be a serious win for him.

His repeated rants have been against a pointless extension just for the sake of more indecision and can kicking.

Leroy42 · 13-10-2019 10:32AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

This was all flagged up at the time the Benn bill was going through the house. I recall Adam Boulton floating such a scenario, or at least one of a similar vein, to guests on his sky news programme and seems pretty naive to me that those who brought the bill didn't foresee it or, if they did, didn't legislate for it. Still, not sure i can see the PM or his foot soldiers making capital out of it. Would be an extremely controversial way for them to leave and isnt there the possibility anyway that the EU could simply offer a formal extension which would be very hard for the government to refuse with at least some recourse to parliament?

There really is only so much that they can do, without completely removing the PM. At the end of the day, the PM power comes from the votes and whilst of course they can put things in the way to stop the PM from doing certain actions, there is always a way if that person is determined enough (look at Trump in the US).

The Benn act put the PM under serious pressure, closed off a very clear plan that he was going for. As such it achieved its aim.

13-10-2019 10:41AM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/13/jeremy-corbyn-rejects-idea-public-vote-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-second-referendum

"Corbyn rejects idea of public vote on Johnson's Brexit deal
Labour leader says he would prefer to fight election before any second referendum is held"

Corbyn is incredibly determined to never be in power.

I think if Starmer was in charge, labour would have a chance.

Joe_ Public · 13-10-2019 10:41AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There really is only so much that they can do, without completely removing the PM. At the end of the day, the PM power comes from the votes and whilst of course they can put things in the way to stop the PM from doing certain actions, there is always a way if that person is determined enough (look at Trump in the US).

The Benn act put the PM under serious pressure, closed off a very clear plan that he was going for. As such it achieved its aim.

I'm completely with you until that last sentence. Surely the Benn Act will only have achieved its aim if and when the UK doesn't crash out in a disorderly fashion on October 31 which still seems unlikely but quite far from impossible. Despite what i said above, if someone like Jo Maugham is concerned about the act, then i would be inclined to take that seriously as he clearly knows a lot more than i do on the subject.

I have also come around to the notion of a second ref being much preferable to a GE for several reasons, if they can manage to get to that position. Problem is i dont think Johnson is going to facilitate it, so only realistic way will probably be opposition getting behind Corbyn as interim leader. But how actually realistic is that? Only time will tell.

MPFGLB · 13-10-2019 10:44AM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/13/jeremy-corbyn-rejects-idea-public-vote-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-second-referendum

Corbyn is incredibly determined to never be in power.

I think if Starmer was in charge, labour would have a chance.

Getting rid of Corbyn as Labour leader is harder than getting a new Referendum,

Getting rid of Corbyn as Labour leader is harder Lord Lucan

CelticRambler · 13-10-2019 10:49AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Would be an extremely controversial way for them to leave and isnt there the possibility anyway that the EU could simply offer a formal extension which would be very hard for the government to refuse with at least some recourse to parliament?

This is the point I was trying to make yesterday. If Johnson thinks he has a deal, he needs an extension just to make it work. If he doesn't have a deal, he's obliged by UK law to ask for one anyway. The meeting with Varadkar has boxed him into a situation where he can no-longer pretend that he wants a deal just so he can postpone asking for an extension long enough to crash out.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I find it difficult to understand why the EU are treating anything Johnson has to say with anything resembling confidence. Johnson has lost every vote he has tried in the HoC, he doesn't have a majority and the HoC has made it clear that they want a deal.

As this chapter unfolds, I am increasingly convinced that the EU are treating Johnson as the infamous "useful idiot". They know perfectly well that neither Johnson nor either of his immediate predecessors could solve the internal wrangling of the Tories - the real Brexit problem. The EU can't meddle with UK domestic politics, but there's nothing to stop them using all their skill and negotiating experience to push the Brexit date further into the future, knowing that it'll provoke a change of some sort within the UK: a GNU with a vote to remain/revoke, a GE with a change of government, a GE with a reinforced Tory mandate, anything other than the current hopeless shambles.

I think Johnson is being played by both Cummings and the EU ... and continental Europe has the better puppet-masters.

13-10-2019 10:50AM

There is always the possibility that the EU may grant an extension that would be dependent on the outcome of a second referendum, possibly even allowing NI to choose whether to remain within the EU customs union in the event of the UK voting to leave.

The extension expiring the day after the vote.

Thus NI voters would have thee options,

Leave - completely remain 100% aligned with GB
Leave - but remain aligned with EU customs (two borders) the DMZ option.
Remain

threeball · 13-10-2019 10:50AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

There really is only so much that they can do, without completely removing the PM. At the end of the day, the PM power comes from the votes and whilst of course they can put things in the way to stop the PM from doing certain actions, there is always a way if that person is determined enough (look at Trump in the US).

The Benn act put the PM under serious pressure, closed off a very clear plan that he was going for. As such it achieved its aim.

I'm completely with you until that last sentence. Surely the Benn Act will only have achieved its aim if and when the UK doesn't crash out in a disorderly fashion on October 31 which still seems unlikely but quite far from impossible. Despite what i said above, if someone like Jo Maugham is concerned about the act, then i would be inclined to take that seriously as he clearly knows a lot more than i do on the subject.

I have also come around to the notion of a second ref being much preferable to a GE for several reasons, if they can manage to get to that position. Problem is i dont think Johnson is going to facilitate it, so only realistic way will probably be opposition getting behind Corbyn as interim leader. But how actually realistic is that? Only time will tell.

What would the referendum question be? I don't see another in or out vote being an option. That will end up worse for everyone. The result will be reversed. The brexiteers will go mental. The UK MEPs will cause havoc. You'll have civil unrest or at least a strong push for a third vote.

The only option is a referendum on Mays deal or no deal. That will bring it's own problems and doesn't really move you on from where you are now.

Joe_ Public · 13-10-2019 10:58AM

threeball wrote: »

What would the referendum question be? I don't see another in or out vote being an option. That will end up worse for everyone. The result will be reversed. The brexiteers will go mental. The UK MEPs will cause havoc. You'll have civil unrest or at least a strong push for a third vote.

The only option is a referendum on Mays deal or no deal. That will bring it's own problems and doesn't really move you on from where you are now.

I agree 100% with you. While the second ref stance is perfectly valid as a principle, there's no easy way in which it works. That's the issue i would have with the ardent remain side - it's fine and honourable as a position, but i think you need to engage with the reality on the other side too. And the reality is a second ref is going to lead to a lengthy, harrowing process of what the terms are, what the questions are and which, quite possibly, would have to be settled in the courts before going back to the electorate. There's going to be years and years of unrest about this, whatever the outcome. That's the only thing i remain certain about anymore.

LeinsterDub · 13-10-2019 10:58AM

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1183274674584772613

Interesting take here that Johnson has been finally convinced by his security services that a no deal would lead to a restarting of the troubles

MadYaker · 13-10-2019 11:03AM

Will that make a difference?

hometruths · 13-10-2019 11:05AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There's going to be years and years of unrest about this, whatever the outcome. That's the only thing i remain certain about anymore.

Absolutely agree with you on this point. At this stage there is no good way forward for the UK in the short to medium term.

Leroy42 · 13-10-2019 11:10AM

But how can Johnson do a deal, surely the BP will tear the Tory party apart in any future GE?

Remember that the reason Johnson, and indeed the Tory party, went so gung-ho on No Deal was to effectively cut off the BP at the knees. That situation hasn't changed.

So if Johnson now betting that he can not only sell a deal to his own party, but get the public to back him rather than split the vote with the BP? Johnson has always been about power, not ideology, so why would he suddenly care about the impact of his decision outside of those areas?

The more I think and read about this the more I think that this is all a ruse by Johnson and the UK. They have continually sold the line that No Deal is not a major problem so on what basis could he claim that he had to compromise in order to secure a deal? Nobody currently minded towards No Deal will think he did anything other than sell out.

A Shropshire Lad · 13-10-2019 11:18AM

The British Home Secretary said this morning that NI should be treated no differently than the rest of the UK in any deal

If Boris's proposal does propose some divergence for NI then clearly his cabinet arent fully behind it !

Joe_ Public · 13-10-2019 11:20AM

That is the paradox that has always confronted Johnson and still trying to figure out how he's dealing with it - the line he sells to his own party and the British public that no deal is fine and opens up all these new exciting trading opportunities for them against the line he peddles to the EU that no deal will be such an unmitigated disaster for everybody that they really need to stop their bullying and offer us more concessions before it's too late. His entire position and strategy based on that fundamental dishonesty, i dont believe any good can come of it.

Leroy42 · 13-10-2019 11:22AM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The British Home Secretary said this morning that NI should be treated no differently than the rest of the UK in any deal

If Boris's proposal does propose some divergence for NI then clearly his cabinet arent fully behind it !

Just another example that whatever Leo thinks he got at that meeting is not what Johnson thinks he gave.

The UK still don't know what they want, the Tories are still split.

hometruths · 13-10-2019 11:33AM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The British Home Secretary said this morning that NI should be treated no differently than the rest of the UK in any deal

If Boris's proposal does propose some divergence for NI then clearly his cabinet arent fully behind it !

That's interesting. I wonder is that down to interpretation - i.e NI will be treated the same as UK in that they have all the advantages of participating in future UK trade deals, but will have the added advantage of frictionless trade with EU.

An English Home Secretary could conceivably think it is not a problem if NI is treated the same or better than the rest of the UK.

That would be to misunderstand the DUP though!!

Rjd2 · 13-10-2019 12:36PM

https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1183151171365720066

He's probably peaked in politics as he has a very dour sort of persona which these days is suicide for politicians, but that's so ****ing spot on.

I can understand a lot of the annoyance from the likes of Stewart, Soames etc who constantly are told they are not Brexity enough by people who voted against leaving 3 ****ing times. :rolleyes:

Strazdas · 13-10-2019 01:08PM

Whilst Johnson's proposals are theoretically 'good' for NI, many Remain supporters and analysts are suggesting it would be a terrible outcome for GB, an ultra hard right wing Brexit.

Igotadose · 13-10-2019 01:14PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Whilst Johnson's proposals are theoretically 'good' for NI, many Remain supporters and analysts are suggesting it would be a terrible outcome for GB, an ultra hard right wing Brexit.

The UDF and UVF are saying if NI is in some different part of the UK post-Brexit, still in the EU if not in name, they're going to start protesting, as did the TUV(?) pol McAllister yesterday on LBC. So, if the 'down the Irish Sea border' happens, what next if the Loyalist types start throwing bombs? HMG policing Belfast to restrain Unionists?

The UVF/UDFstatements were in today's Times (I don't have it in front of me unfortunately. They also quoted some local Pol with 'knowledge' of the UVF that said they were contemplating protesting and it would make the 'Protests of 2013' look small.)

The TUV guy said the DUP didn't represent all of the NI Unionist community, not extreme enough I suppose.

ancapailldorcha · 13-10-2019 01:17PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1183151171365720066

He's probably peaked in politics as he has a very dour sort of persona which these days is suicide for politicians, but that's so ****ing spot on.

I can understand a lot of the annoyance from the likes of Stewart, Soames etc who constantly are told they are not Brexity enough by people who voted against leaving 3 ****ing times. :rolleyes:

He has no incentive to play the game any more so he probably feels that he can be more forthright now. His nickname, "Spreadsheet Phil" is probably based on his tendency to focus on details as well as his dry demeanour.

To be honest, I'll always remember Goldsmith as the man who made a fuss about how much of a Bollywood fan he is but couldn't name a single actor/actress or film.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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