The Strike is over. What happens now?

yosemitesam1 · 03-10-2019 02:00PM

MfMan wrote: »

Yes, Wrangler, they've shown that by steadfastness and weight of numbers they can bring the factories to a halt, demonstrate to them that they're not taking any more BS regardless of cost to themselves, and have actually brought about material improvements to beef pricing for farmers. And your own input has been?

The factories are/will be in the driving seat until growth kicks off next year.

wrangler · 03-10-2019 02:16PM

MfMan wrote: »

Yes, Wrangler, they've shown that by steadfastness and weight of numbers they can bring the factories to a halt, demonstrate to them that they're not taking any more BS regardless of cost to themselves, and have actually brought about material improvements to beef pricing for farmers. And your own input has been?

Headline in yesterdays paper.

There's no glory in a game of no winners.

Bass Reeves · 03-10-2019 02:18PM

Panch18 wrote: »

Do you actually have any idea of the damage done by the protests?

In the months of August and September there were 99k less cattle killed in 2019 than 2018. That is just in the months of August and September. Putting numbers around it, in August and Sept 2018 there were 361k cattle killed, in Aug and Sept 2019 there are 262k cattle killed.

The 37k cattle you quoted as killed last week is still lower than the 39k killed in the corresponding week in 2018 - so its nothing to jump around about.

This backlog is going to run for weeks or months.

you say that most lads under pressure are large finishers which is complete rubbish, everybody who is finishing cattle is under pressure, small, medium and large. You only have to read on here to see that.

And with the weather getting very nasty this week it could be extremely costly for finishers who will end up housing cattle that should be hung at this stage. And thats on every land type not just wet

I think the real damage that was done was lads that taught that processor's were there BFF. Most are finding they have to que to get cattle killed just like the lad with a box of them. They all taught that they be top of the list when this was over. But processors have to keep agents on side as well so everyone is having to wait to get them killed.

Large finishers are the ones under most pressure as they may now have to empty sheds before being able to refill. Ya I housed a pen of cattle mostly because I did not start to feed them while the strike was in progress. It called managing the situation. Any lads that finishes over the longer term rather than lads doing the 70-100 days turn over is under less pressure.

Your sums on numbers to kill are done on the presumption that kill this autumn will be will be similar to last autumn. At present we have killed 5K less cattle than this time last year. I doubt if the overhand is more than 50-60K cattle as I think the kill this autumn would have been in the low 30's as opposed to the high thirties last year.

Stop getting excited and trying to create panic.

wrangler wrote: »

You only have to read on here or twitter, talk to your neighbours, you don't need to read it on the papers.
If there was 37000 killed last week and still there's chaos, it's not the MIIs fault, it's squarely the responsibility of Beef Plans messing.
It's Ironic that the protestors, most of whom don't use the factories, are threatening still if the processors don't ''behave''
Have they no clue what they've done

You are very fast to blame BP for all the issues. but as the accountant said to me the real loser here is the IFA. his reasoning was as follows. IFA can no longer lobby and say they have the support of the even the majority of farmers not to mind the vast majority. They twice signed a deal and farmers rejected it once and nearly the second time. As well smaller beef farmers are now seen to have deserted them in the 10K's. They can no longer claim the have a massive voting block.

This idea that there is chaos around is a bit childish. Ya some lads are expecting they can rock up with a lorry load tomorrow and expect to get them killed. Again the trick was to contact your agent when killing resumed last week and let him know what sort of numbers you need killed and when. I had a few going over in two weeks talked to him last week and again yesterday. He will get my cattle away early the week after next. Had a friend of mine panicking he has 8 heifers he got one going over age killed last week, he had another one this week but wanted to kill them all. I told him to arrange to have 2 killed this week and again next week and the week after. Its just a case of managing it with your agent.

April cattle will be gone in 2-3 weeks pressure will be really off then

wrangler · 03-10-2019 02:19PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The factories are/will be in the driving seat until growth kicks off next year.

And the weather is on their side as well

Bass Reeves · 03-10-2019 02:22PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The factories are/will be in the driving seat until growth kicks off next year.

Not unless the same stupid idiots fill there shed to overflowing as they did last year.....and then whinge and cry about the price of cattle and ration. Anyway numbers will tighten from now on as 2018 cattle acre required for slaughter. I think numbers will be back about 4-5k/week next year. We have killed a **** lot of 2017 cattle so far however the idiot that wants to fill a shed without an advance price is the real problem. is the real problem

Bass Reeves · 03-10-2019 02:25PM

wrangler wrote: »

Headline in yesterdays paper.

There's no glory in a game of no winners.

When you are percieved to be the weaker team a score draw is often a good result. But I reckon most smaller lads are winning prices at least 20c/kg better than factories intended and cattle going in 4-6 weeks later with more weight that is about 100 euro/head

wrangler · 03-10-2019 02:29PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think the real damage that was done was lads that taught that processor's were there BFF. Most are finding they have to que to get cattle killed just like the lad with a box of them. They all taught that they be top of the list when this was over. But processors have to keep agents on side as well so everyone is having to wait to get them killed.

Large finishers are the ones under most pressure as they may now have to empty sheds before being able to refill. Ya I housed a pen of cattle mostly because I did not start to feed them while the strike was in progress. It called managing the situation. Any lads that finishes over the longer term rather than lads doing the 70-100 days turn over is under less pressure.

Your sums on numbers to kill are done on the presumption that kill this autumn will be will be similar to last autumn. At present we have killed 5K less cattle than this time last year. I doubt if the overhand is more than 50-60K cattle as I think the kill this autumn would have been in the low 30's as opposed to the high thirties last year.

Stop getting excited and trying to create panic.

You are very fast to blame BP for all the issues. but as the accountant said to me the real loser here is the IFA. his reasoning was as follows. IFA can no longer lobby and say they have the support of the even the majority of farmers not to mind the vast majority. They twice signed a deal and farmers rejected it once and nearly the second time. As well smaller beef farmers are now seen to have deserted them in the 10K's. They can no longer claim the have a massive voting block.

This idea that there is chaos around is a bit childish. Ya some lads are expecting they can rock up with a lorry load tomorrow and expect to get them killed. Again the trick was to contact your agent when killing resumed last week and let him know what sort of numbers you need killed and when. I had a few going over in two weeks talked to him last week and again yesterday. He will get my cattle away early the week after next. Had a friend of mine panicking he has 8 heifers he got one going over age killed last week, he had another one this week but wanted to kill them all. I told him to arrange to have 2 killed this week and again next week and the week after. Its just a case of managing it with your agent.

April cattle will be gone in 2-3 weeks pressure will be really off then

Farmers were an irrelevant lobby for years, lots more sectors needing support with more votes.
You've only a few cattle with an option to house, not all are so well set up.

Panch18 · 03-10-2019 04:55PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think the real damage that was done was lads that taught that processor's were there BFF. Most are finding they have to que to get cattle killed just like the lad with a box of them. They all taught that they be top of the list when this was over. But processors have to keep agents on side as well so everyone is having to wait to get them killed.

Large finishers are the ones under most pressure as they may now have to empty sheds before being able to refill. Ya I housed a pen of cattle mostly because I did not start to feed them while the strike was in progress. It called managing the situation. Any lads that finishes over the longer term rather than lads doing the 70-100 days turn over is under less pressure.

Your sums on numbers to kill are done on the presumption that kill this autumn will be will be similar to last autumn. At present we have killed 5K less cattle than this time last year. I doubt if the overhand is more than 50-60K cattle as I think the kill this autumn would have been in the low 30's as opposed to the high thirties last year.

Stop getting excited and trying to create panic

Not creating any panic just facts

There are 50,000 bullocks less killed this year than last so far, not sure where you’re getting you’re 5k figure from

Panch18 · 03-10-2019 05:00PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

This idea that there is chaos around is a bit childish. Ya some lads are expecting they can rock up with a lorry load tomorrow and expect to get them killed. Again the trick was to contact your agent when killing resumed last week and let him know what sort of numbers you need killed and when. I had a few going over in two weeks talked to him last week and again yesterday. He will get my cattle away early the week after next. Had a friend of mine panicking he has 8 heifers he got one going over age killed last week, he had another one this week but wanted to kill them all. I told him to arrange to have 2 killed this week and again next week and the week after. Its just a case of managing it with your agent.

April cattle will be gone in 2-3 weeks pressure will be really off then

You’re a gas man I’ll tell you

Never wrestle with pigs · 03-10-2019 05:12PM

Panch18 wrote: »

Not creating any panic just facts

There are 50,000 bullocks less killed this year than last so far, not sure where you’re getting you’re 5k figure from

The mother in law was hung up last year with the dry year feck all fodder and eating into the little fodder people had in the summer. Last year was the exception not the rule. Herds of cows were taken out, anything that blinked wrong was up the ramp. People pushed bullock's early so as not to have to house them. They are killing for contract at the moment as there is feck all cattle out there. Local factory is killing 4 days a week at the moment and two of those are slightly over half days. If they clean out what is there now they would have to up the price so why would they do that? The big issue is the rise of factory feed lots controling the market and becoming a bigger part of the market.

Lime Tree Farm · 03-10-2019 05:36PM

“The mother in law was hung up last year with the dry year feck all fodder and eating into the little fodder people had in the summer”

How did she kill out, what DW and FS?

kk.man · 03-10-2019 05:37PM

Even if the staff issue was true... Its a case of the boy crying wolf now. The Mll propaganda was badly exposed leading up to and during the strikes. Their word doesn't hold water in farmers eyes.

manno · 03-10-2019 06:04PM

"Have they no clue what they've done"
"Do you actually have any idea of the damage done by the protests"
What are ye lads on about? The way ye are talking anyone would think all the factories were burnt to the ground and farmers had nowhere to go with their cattle.
So some lads might have to feed a few bales for a few weeks until they get cattle away. My cattle are in 3 weeks...that's the reality of farming west of the shannon. The cattle are putting on weight and BECAUSE of the protests they will still get a bonus if they are over age.

whelan2 · 03-10-2019 06:08PM

Local cattle dealer normally buys cattle for farmers. He said cattle are scarce atm

Dunedin · 03-10-2019 06:54PM

wrangler wrote: »

And the weather is on their side as well

So you’re acknowledging that the mafia take advantage of the weather to the farmers detriment.

And you wonder why there’s protests at their gates????!

gerryirl · 03-10-2019 07:40PM

wrangler wrote: »

You only have to read on here or twitter, talk to your neighbours, you don't need to read it on the papers.
If there was 37000 killed last week and still there's chaos, it's not the MIIs fault, it's squarely the responsibility of Beef Plans messing.
It's Ironic that the protestors, most of whom don't use the factories, are threatening still if the processors don't ''behave''
Have they no clue what they've done

dont know if your aware but the beefplan stepped back form the protests in the second phase. It was a farmers protest and godforbid youd not believe it Wrangler but most of them were paid up IFA members(Well for this year anyway)

The IFA went in and negotiated a deal along with the rest of the farm organisations. Only one that organised a meeting to explain it to there members were the beef plan.

Bass Reeves · 03-10-2019 09:25PM

Panch18 wrote: »

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think the real damage that was done was lads that taught that processor's were there BFF. Most are finding they have to que to get cattle killed just like the lad with a box of them. They all taught that they be top of the list when this was over. But processors have to keep agents on side as well so everyone is having to wait to get them killed.

Large finishers are the ones under most pressure as they may now have to empty sheds before being able to refill. Ya I housed a pen of cattle mostly because I did not start to feed them while the strike was in progress. It called managing the situation. Any lads that finishes over the longer term rather than lads doing the 70-100 days turn over is under less pressure.

Your sums on numbers to kill are done on the presumption that kill this autumn will be will be similar to last autumn. At present we have killed 5K less cattle than this time last year. I doubt if the overhand is more than 50-60K cattle as I think the kill this autumn would have been in the low 30's as opposed to the high thirties last year.

Stop getting excited and trying to create panic

Not creating any panic just facts

There are 50,000 bullocks less killed this year than last so far, not sure where you’re getting you’re 5k figure from

Total number of cattle killed at present 2018v2919 is 5k less. Lots of young cattle killed late lady year because of the expected fodder crisis that did not happen.
The heifer kill has remained stable because lads are not replacing Suckler cows. Lots of cows killed last year because of expected fodder shortage however extra fodder will reduce cow full this year as lads over culled last year. Like I said if there is 50k extra cattle in the system that it's. But I expect numbers to slow rapidly from end of October.

Muckit · 03-10-2019 09:50PM

Lime Tree Farm wrote: »

“The mother in law was hung up last year with the dry year ....”

How did she kill out, what DW and FS?

A fine back end but narrow enough on the shoulders!

kk.man · 03-10-2019 10:23PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

. But I expect numbers to slow rapidly from end of October.

I have heard the same from a friend of mine who finishes a lot of cattle.

Albert Johnson · 03-10-2019 10:41PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Local cattle dealer normally buys cattle for farmers. He said cattle are scarce atm

I don't know if cattle are scarce as such but there wasn't the same volume in the marts up until now as I'd expect for this time of year. Having said that after another mixed week's weather I'd expect the sales to see a large increase in numbers on previous weeks. The live trade is somewhat of a mystery to me atm. By this I mean that it's probably ahead of where it should be given the beef situation and with all the talk of a poor live trade I still see very little of what I think of as value in the marts. Certain types of stock are a bad trade but others are as dear if not dearer than ever imo. The gap between the good and the bad is ever widening although I would be of the opinion that all classes of stock increased slightly in price in the last 10 days.

kk.man · 03-10-2019 10:44PM

Albert Johnson wrote: »

I don't know if cattle are scarce as such but there wasn't the same volume in the marts up until now as I'd expect for this time of year. Having said that after another mixed week's weather I'd expect the sales to see a large increase in numbers on previous weeks. The live trade is somewhat of a mystery to me atm. By this I mean that it's probably ahead of where it should be given the beef situation and with all the talk of a poor live trade I still see very little of what I think of as value in the marts. Certain types of stock are a bad trade but others are as dear if not dearer than ever imo. The gap between the good and the bad is ever widening although I would be of the opinion that all classes of stock increased slightly in price in the last 10 days.

P grade cattle are being hammered on the new grid.

Albert Johnson · 03-10-2019 10:50PM

kk.man wrote: »

P grade cattle are being hammered on the new grid.

There not really my area of expertise although I don't think they were exactly made up with the previous grid structure either. At least locally there niche sort of stock and are never going to be anythingmuch more than an average trade. It's the likes of the fancy farmers calf 200-320kg that's a rip atm (€2.80-3.30 a kilo) or the average weanling of the same weight (€2.10-2.50) that's probably €100 odd over the bar of where he should be given the current store/finished trade.

Muckit · 03-10-2019 11:03PM

A lot of cattle going in with just enough cover on them, whatever that's about.

Water John · 03-10-2019 11:06PM

May be offloading before 31st Oct?

Robson99 · 04-10-2019 07:29AM

Muckit wrote: »

A lot of cattle going in with just enough cover on them, whatever that's about.

Id say its a sign yhat lads are not willing to spend any money on meal to cover them. Whatever is on them is in them.
As regards cattle prices in the marts even with the bad weather I'd say it will be end of October before glut if stores will come out ...a lot of the lads holding for the 7 months / summer grazing would only be buying in late March / early April

Panch18 · 04-10-2019 09:32AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Total number of cattle killed at present 2018v2919 is 5k less. Lots of young cattle killed late lady year because of the expected fodder crisis that did not happen.
The heifer kill has remained stable because lads are not replacing Suckler cows. Lots of cows killed last year because of expected fodder shortage however extra fodder will reduce cow full this year as lads over culled last year. Like I said if there is 50k extra cattle in the system that it's. But I expect numbers to slow rapidly from end of October.

According to the DAFM website the total kill as of 24-09-2018 was 1,325,452. The current cumulative kill for 2019 as of 23-09-2019 was 1,271,127. So the difference between both years is 54,325 head extra killed in 2018 compared to 2019. Those numbers are for bulls, heifers, cows, bullocks and various others

so i don't know where the 5k less cattle killed is coming from - but anyway

Dickie10 · 04-10-2019 09:44AM

Drought during the summer of 18 will account for a lot , lot of dairy cows were culled in that summer , milk flowing out of them. probabaly a lot of average fleshed cattle off loaded too that summer

yosemitesam1 · 04-10-2019 10:43AM

Panch18 wrote: »

According to the DAFM website the total kill as of 24-09-2018 was 1,325,452. The current cumulative kill for 2019 as of 23-09-2019 was 1,271,127. So the difference between both years is 54,325 head extra killed in 2018 compared to 2019. Those numbers are for bulls, heifers, cows, bullocks and various others

so i don't know where the 5k less cattle killed is coming from - but anyway

Factories know what is out there anyway. You hear every extreme POV and everything in between talking to lads

Base price · 04-10-2019 09:09PM

Kepak has announced their new pricing structure and weight limitations. It ain't good reading :mad:

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/kepak-reveals-in-spec-bonus-pricing-structure-and-weight-penalties/

cute geoge · 04-10-2019 09:17PM

Base price wrote: »

Kepak has announced their new pricing structure and weight limitations. It ain't good reading :mad:

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/kepak-reveals-in-spec-bonus-pricing-structure-and-weight-penalties/

If you are lucky enough to get a poor old cow killed there,you will end up owing kepak money, some shower of jokers!!!!

The Strike is over. What happens now?

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