The Strike is over. What happens now?

MIKEKC

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

What are the Dutch protesting for, what is it they want?

As the title of this is What happens now. It would appear that we will have to wait to get cattle killed. Impossible to gat over 30 months away. Cattle booked in over 3 weeks ago and no hope of getting them away to ABP Cahir

Nobbies

MIKEKC wrote: »

As the title of this is What happens now. It would appear that we will have to wait to get cattle killed. Impossible to gat over 30 months away. Cattle booked in over 3 weeks ago and no hope of getting them away to ABP Cahir

I have to say the blockade that happened has knocked my confidence in beef finishing going forward. leaving aside the unknowns of brexit yet. can we expect another blockade when base price gets ahit, leaving those of us who do depend on factories being open for business somewhere we don't want to be.

Mooooo

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

What are the Dutch protesting for, what is it they want?

They are sick of being blamed for all climate issues, I think some one in Dutch parliament suggested halving the number of livestock in the country

Siamsa Sessions

Mooooo wrote: »

They are sick of being blamed for all climate issues, I think some one in Dutch parliament suggested halving the number of livestock in the country

Maybe they should reintroduce wolves who can then eat those unwanted cattle?

Have they a real Green Party over there? Or a posh-boy one like here whose leader seems to genuinely think wolves should be imported and released into the Irish countryside?

CloughCasey1

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

Maybe they should reintroduce wolves who can then eat those unwanted *humans*?

Have they a real Green Party over there? Or a posh-boy one like here whose leader seems to genuinely think wolves should be imported and released into the Irish countryside?

Fixed that for ya!

longgonesilver

If someone fenced in say 100 acres of woods and imported 50 wolves would enough people pay to see them to make it financially viable? I know it would be more like a zoo than wolves in the wild. More importantly a few setups like that would give an alternative to Larry for offal disposal!!

Bass Reeves

longgonesilver wrote: »

If someone fenced in say 100 acres of woods and imported 50 wolves would enough people pay to see them to make it financially viable? I know it would be more like a zoo than wolves in the wild. More importantly a few setups like that would give an alternative to Larry for offal disposal!!

The quite simple answer is no. Cost alone would be horrorendus. The logistics of feeding them and keeping the Forrest floor in the right condition for them as well.How would you manage there breeding. There would be enough wolves there to form 2-3 packs and they would more than likly kill each other Finally the dreaded insurance bill would break you.

Bass Reeves

Nobbies wrote: »

I have to say the blockade that happened has knocked my confidence in beef finishing going forward. leaving aside the unknowns of brexit yet. can we expect another blockade when base price gets ahit, leaving those of us who do depend on factories being open for business somewhere we don't want to be.

The blockades are a short-term blip in the beef finishing. Finisher's should look at the longer-term picture. The blockades were a expression of the issues that store, calf to beef men and Suckler farmers were suffering. They were losing money.
You post about being dependent on factories being open for business. you also need lads to produce the stores you finish. If these lads are losing money they will exit the business. You have to look at the complete picture. As much as you need the factories open you also need store men to have confidance to replace stock they sell.
The lad that buys dairy calves is key next spring. There is already an reduction in Suckler cow numbers and the trend will continue downwards so the stores from this direction will reduce by 150k over the next 2-3 years at least. The export of dairy calves exploded last spring expect it to rise again next spring. On 2years time there will be 250k less cattle in the country. The lad most exposed is the larger finisher. How many calf to beef men that stat at it will have what ever product they produce. The smaller finisher like myself get in earlier in the cycle than the larger shorter term finisher so should be less exposed to the shortages in numbers.
If prices continue to decline in two years time you be somewhere you do not want to be either

mf240

When I heard the greens wanted to reintroduce wolves, I assumed they wanted to prop up fianna fail again.

Muckit

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The blockades are a short-term blip in the beef finishing. Finisher's should look at the longer-term picture. The blockades were a expression of the issues that store, calf to beef men and Suckler farmers were suffering. They were losing money.
You post about being dependent on factories being open for business. you also need lads to produce the stores you finish. If these lads are losing money they will exit the business. You have to look at the complete picture.

This is the thing. Too many lads can't see further than they're nose. Some have posted about still making money this year despite the poor beef price. But l ask, at who's expense?

EVERYONE in the chain has to be making a few quid or things are not sustainable. That means the suckler man and the store man. I even include factories and retailers. But as we know they make sure that they cover their end.

Panch18

Muckit wrote: »

This is the thing. Too many lads can't see further than they're nose. Some have posted about still making money this year despite the poor beef price. But l ask, at who's expense?

EVERYONE in the chain has to be making a few quid or things are not sustainable. That means the suckler man and the store man. I even include factories and retailers. But as we know they make sure that they cover their end.

The price of stores is good this back end, especially considering the upheaval and factory price.

What exactly is the problem?

Bass Reeves

Panch18 wrote: »

The price of stores is good this back end, especially considering the upheaval and factory price.

What exactly is the problem?

The glut of store has still to come out. When and if( numbers may be lower than expected the real upheaval in prices will be felt. Yes relative to the beef price some of us are receiving the store price is not reflecting the total fall in beef prices. However the protest has put a floor under prices at present. We be at least 30C/kg lower except for them and that would have knocked another 70-100/head off the store price. However the lower weight store is not as resilient as the heavier store and its similar with weanlings.

However even at that lads are only breaking even when you look at costs especially on more marginal land. The real effect will be next spring as exporters may well hover up double the number of calves they did last year and we will also see an issue with what will happen to the poorer quality calf.

Anto_Meath

At the mart last night it was very evident that weanlins in the 250 - 350 kg bracket if they were red limo or Ch were very much in demand by the exporters and making €2.50 - €2.80 a kg, but anything that they didn't want, ie Black Lims, brown CH and anything near 400 kgs were a lot harder to sell. It will be the same with the calves, the exporters will want the good Fr at a price meaning the rubbish will be left behind, with no market for them, even getting them for nothing wouldn't encourage lads to feed them.

Panch18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The glut of store has still to come out. When and if( numbers may be lower than expected the real upheaval in prices will be felt. Yes relative to the beef price some of us are receiving the store price is not reflecting the total fall in beef prices. However the protest has put a floor under prices at present. We be at least 30C/kg lower except for them and that would have knocked another 70-100/head off the store price. However the lower weight store is not as resilient as the heavier store and its similar with weanlings.

However even at that lads are only breaking even when you look at costs especially on more marginal land. The real effect will be next spring as exporters may well hover up double the number of calves they did last year and we will also see an issue with what will happen to the poorer quality calf.

The reality is that store producers are no worse off this year than most other years. Cattle were very dear in 2018 back end so not a great comparison, but apart from that this year is as good as any year for the store man

There is a lot of conjecture and surmising going on - but the reality is the store producers is no worse off than most years

Mooooo

Is it not the exporters putting a floor in the mart trade taking a share of bulls etc? Competition is the only thing that will.help prices if numbers stay up and there is none really with a limited live trade

Good loser

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The glut of store has still to come out. When and if( numbers may be lower than expected the real upheaval in prices will be felt. Yes relative to the beef price some of us are receiving the store price is not reflecting the total fall in beef prices. However the protest has put a floor under prices at present. We be at least 30C/kg lower except for them and that would have knocked another 70-100/head off the store price. However the lower weight store is not as resilient as the heavier store and its similar with weanlings.

However even at that lads are only breaking even when you look at costs especially on more marginal land. The real effect will be next spring as exporters may well hover up double the number of calves they did last year and we will also see an issue with what will happen to the poorer quality calf.

We don't know if prices would have fallen another 30 c/kg. The idea that something permanent has changed in the market is 'for the birds'.

It could be that if cattle had moved at the normal rate (with the currency turning) prices could have recovered of their own volition. And might be higher now.
I've heard of factories losing key staff during the break and Brexit is getting ever closer.

Anto_Meath

Mooooo wrote: »

Is it not the exporters putting a floor in the mart trade taking a share of bulls etc? Competition is the only thing that will.help prices if numbers stay up and there is none really with a limited live trade

Yes it is the exporters that are putting a floor under the lighter bulls. There is a few boats to leave between now and the end of the year. The more that goes the better it leave less for Larry so he might have to up the price a wee bit.

Genghis Cant

Anyone else having trouble getting cattle away to the factory?
I'm being put off day after day.

Bass Reeves

Good loser wrote: »

We don't know if prices would have fallen another 30 c/kg. The idea that something permanent has changed in the market is 'for the birds'.

It could be that if cattle had moved at the normal rate (with the currency turning) prices could have recovered of their own volition. And might be higher now.
I've heard of factories losing key staff during the break and Brexit is getting ever closer.

We have a fair idea they would have. Even after the first strike the processors tried to drop them to 3.4/kg this started the second strike. Processors would have dropped prices straigh through from Late July to Mid September unless there was a drastic drop in Cattle numbers maybe even if there was. Even now after the second strike it is only the fear of the consequences that is stopping them pulling prices.

Anto_Meath

Genghis Cant wrote: »

Anyone else having trouble getting cattle away to the factory?
I'm being put off day after day.

Ye they are cutting back on the kill, only killing half days, they are saying it is because they lost staff during the strikes so cant process the meat, which is possible. There seems to be a lot of factory fit cattle appearing in the marts recently and I would guess with this wet weather there will be more.

Water John

Don't believe the staff story. If you could get decent work elsewhere, doubt you'd work on a meat factory line. Most workers are work permit tied anyway.

Anto_Meath

Water John wrote: »

Don't believe the staff story. If you could get decent work elsewhere, doubt you'd work on a meat factory line. Most workers are work permit tied anyway.

You are probably right, I am of the opinion that they are probably picking up factory fit cattle cheaper in the marts than what they are giving the farmers.

Dozer1

went to book in 1 heifer for Rathkeale, 3 weeks, she's ok for age so not a problem

wrangler

Dozer1 wrote: »

went to book in 1 heifer for Rathkeale, 3 weeks, she's ok for age so not a problem

Even the cattle put back are being put back again, don't know how anyone could call what's going on a blip, farmers are badly stuck now with cattle

yosemitesam1

wrangler wrote: »

Even the cattle put back are being put back again, don't know how anyone could call what's going on a blip, farmers are badly stuck now with cattle

Probably making sure there won't be anymore strikes for the next few months. Worst thing they could do is clear the backlog fast

Bass Reeves

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

wrangler wrote: »

Even the cattle put back are being put back again, don't know how anyone could call what's going on a blip, farmers are badly stuck now with cattle

Probably making sure there won't be anymore strikes for the next few months. Worst thing they could do is clear the backlog fast

They slaughtered 37k cattle last week ya they are slowing down the kill. Agent told me pressure will be off in 10-14 days as backlog of on the age cattle will be well cleared. Most lads under pressure are larger finisher's who were feeding cattle inside or have housed cattle because of number's

Some lads here are revisionist's. They told us when the protest was over the factory's would take it to 3/kg or below that, that we have to crawl on our bellies to get cattle killed for the next 6 months. They were on about all the contracts lost to Poland and Timbucktoo.

What ever is over age is overage. They are putting weigh on and the price will remain the same. Yes on wetter farms lads need to move cattle on the age rather than house but that wil clear as now we are dealing with April born cattle

Water John

Some people think an MII press release is the truth.

Panch18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

They slaughtered 37k cattle last week ya they are slowing down the kill. Agent told me pressure will be off in 10-14 days as backlog of on the age cattle will be well cleared. Most lads under pressure are larger finisher's who were feeding cattle inside or have housed cattle because of number's

Some lads here are revisionist's. They told us when the protest was over the factory's would take it to 3/kg or below that, that we have to crawl on our bellies to get cattle killed for the next 6 months. They were on about all the contracts lost to Poland and Timbucktoo.

What ever is over age is overage. They are putting weigh on and the price will remain the same. Yes on wetter farms lads need to move cattle on the age rather than house but that wil clear as now we are dealing with April born cattle

Do you actually have any idea of the damage done by the protests?

In the months of August and September there were 99k less cattle killed in 2019 than 2018. That is just in the months of August and September. Putting numbers around it, in August and Sept 2018 there were 361k cattle killed, in Aug and Sept 2019 there are 262k cattle killed.

The 37k cattle you quoted as killed last week is still lower than the 39k killed in the corresponding week in 2018 - so its nothing to jump around about.

This backlog is going to run for weeks or months.

you say that most lads under pressure are large finishers which is complete rubbish, everybody who is finishing cattle is under pressure, small, medium and large. You only have to read on here to see that.

And with the weather getting very nasty this week it could be extremely costly for finishers who will end up housing cattle that should be hung at this stage. And thats on every land type not just wet

wrangler

Water John wrote: »

Some people think an MII press release is the truth.

You only have to read on here or twitter, talk to your neighbours, you don't need to read it on the papers.
If there was 37000 killed last week and still there's chaos, it's not the MIIs fault, it's squarely the responsibility of Beef Plans messing.
It's Ironic that the protestors, most of whom don't use the factories, are threatening still if the processors don't ''behave''
Have they no clue what they've done

MfMan

wrangler wrote: »

You only have to read on here or twitter, talk to your neighbours, you don't need to read it on the papers.
If there was 37000 killed last week and still there's chaos, it's not the MIIs fault, it's squarely the responsibility of Beef Plans messing.
It's Ironic that the protestors, most of whom don't use the factories, are threatening still if the processors don't ''behave''
Have they no clue what they've done

Yes, Wrangler, they've shown that by steadfastness and weight of numbers they can bring the factories to a halt, demonstrate to them that they're not taking any more BS regardless of cost to themselves, and have actually brought about material improvements to beef pricing for farmers. And your own input has been?