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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Comments

  • #842
    m17
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭m17


    WHXY5nl.jpg


  • #843
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,585 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Seeing as Lorenzo could deviate at the last minute, I would imagine that the same colour coded warning would be issued for western counties to cover any deviation.


  • #844
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note : Please use the other thread for general chit chat https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019653


    and keep this thread free for technical discussion.


  • #845
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,744 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Latest ICON-EU model shifts it a little North with northwest seeing bigger impact but overall less impact compared to 12z.

    https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1179146930020110341?s=21


  • #846
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,291 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Comparison of the NHC graphics at the same time frame (+48hrs) Ophelia (1st image) vs Lorenzo.

    Again, this is the 50kt windspeed probability.

    0e72c538bab46977e76136ae06722c4d.png

    c4b7f699f6d05558adfd1dc54d89c866.png


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  • #847
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    looks like galway's going to take an absolute smashing


  • #848
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON 18Z slower moving so expending most of its energy off the coast and keeping strongest winds to the coasts.

    Not as strong as previous run.

    anim_wqy5.gif

    iconeu_uk1-52-65-0_buv6.png


  • #849
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,823 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Slight adjustment of the center east and south on the GFS 18z run but as we were in terms of depth and intensity.

    gfs-0-48.png?18


  • #850
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Interesting comparison between the ECMWF ensembles for Lorenzo today and those for Ophelia when it was at about the same stage out from us.

    Note how the HRES and mean for Ophelia were on the right of the envelope, whereas they're straight down the middle for Lorenzo. Opelia's intensity on landfall was around 65 knots as opposed to around 55 knots for Lorenzo.

    ps2png-gorax-blue-007-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-UCdkeQ.png

    ps2png-gorax-blue-005-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-TICk8q.png


  • #851
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    18z gfs is close to nationwide red warning


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  • #852
    Macy0161
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,854 ✭✭✭Macy0161


    I wouldnt rule out higher warnings given the ground conditions already in place. Surprising number of "tree down/ road blocked" posts in my timeline here in Wicklow with today's relatively benign conditions .


  • #853
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    18z gfs is close to nationwide red warning
    No it isn't.


  • #854
    typhoony
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,881 ✭✭✭typhoony


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    18z gfs is close to nationwide red warning

    has it not weakened a small bit on previous run, apart from the coasts the wind gusts over land look to be in the 90 to 110km max range


  • #855
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,759 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    18z gfs is close to nationwide red warning

    It’s more like high yellow low orange everywhere besides the west coast


  • #856
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,291 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    18z gfs is close to nationwide red warning

    It's nowhere near national red.

    Calls for widespread gusts up to 110km/h.
    Widespread 110-120km/h on western coasts combined with the storm surge will probably tip the balance to Red for those counties.
    Orange elswehere at most, there is nothing on any 18Z GFS chart to warrant more than a yellow in eastern parts but we'll probably see orange from Thursday evening & for Friday given all the other factors.


  • #857
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The isobars are packed tight together.
    These ex hurricanes usually pack a different virw


  • #858
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Again going a bit more N before turning and moving down across the country, GFS keeping the isobars tight, will be interesting to see if it will bring a stripe of very strong winds across the country during it's transit.

    anim_fqz1.gif


    anim_hdy9.gif


  • #859
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest NHC track, showing extent of 34 and 50-knot wind radii.

    al132019.19100106.gif


  • #860
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    SL6u1D1.png

    MCVsOqi.png

    VSfNIz8.png

    iMBnwLS.png

    iWyoOq2.png


  • #861
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,291 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Latest NHC track, showing extent of 34 and 50-knot wind radii.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but that doesn't take terrain into account, so some areas may not see 34kt wind at all.


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  • #862
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looks like heavy or very heavy rain in places in the Northern half of the country.


    arpegeuk-25-72-0_trr0.png

    nmmuk-25-72-0_oep2.png


  • #863
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    To see live station data from the Azores click here. The two westernmost islands are Flores and Corvo.

    http://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/obs.superficie/#Flores (Aeródromo)

    Flores data now (28 amsl)

    492052.PNG


  • #864
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,291 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Convenction intensifying again? Seems to be unwrapping itself on the southern side, but colder could tops in the core over the last 1-2hrs.

    (GL I'm hoping you might explain this, I'm new to TTB and messing around with all they have on there)

    29ab1c46941b96780e868ec3f9e4cc83.gif


  • #865
    John.Icy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,211 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    What is this places obsession with Ophelia comparisons? Besides Cork there's every chance other areas will see winds like they did with Ophelia with Lorenzo.

    And that's because bar exposed southern places Ophelia delivered yellow level winds to many, orange to some (3 stations red, all Cork S.coast, 5 orange and the rest yellow).

    Out and out max intensity Lorenzo won't match what Opehlia did down in Cork BUT you should be looking at what Lorenzo is going to do in your area and cross compare to previous storms not max vs. max gusts of systems. Most of the time you're looking at what various storms have done at Malin Head or Bellmullet or the likes then!

    Just like how Storm Ali caught some by surprise in Dublin. It was only a yellow yet it matched the 104km/h gust achieved during Ophelia so it was a tasty little storm.

    Follow the forecasts and regional wind speed estimates rather than dismissing a storm because the answer to "will Lorenzo be as strong as Ophelia" is no technically. Trees are in leaf and the ground is damp, trees can fall with yellow level gusts, as seen today in Dublin - don't even think we hit yellow level gusts.


  • #866
    TTLF
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 742 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    John.Icy wrote: »
    What is this places obsession with Ophelia comparisons?

    Exactly, here’s something I wrote out earlier to show how this storm can be devastating in its own ways.

    1. More rain with this system, so already waterlogged soil gets worse and weakens trees
    2. Still some pretty sustainable gusts up to 90 or 100KMH here (Dublin) at some point
    3. Heavier trees due to leafs on trees with weakened soil
    4. Already high rivers

    This storm will still pack a punch, even if it’s not Ophelia intensity, because of the setup this time.


  • #867
    John.Icy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,211 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    TTLF wrote: »
    Exactly, here’s something I wrote out earlier to show how this storm can be devastating in its own ways.

    1. More rain with this system, so already waterlogged soil gets worse and weakens trees
    2. Still some pretty sustainable gusts up to 90 or 100KMH here (Dublin) at some point
    3. Heavier trees due to leafs on trees with weakened soil
    4. Already high rivers

    This storm will still pack a punch, even if it’s not Ophelia intensity, because of the setup this time.

    Hurricane Charley remnants, case and point. Nothing noteworthy wind wise but the floods were bad (not saying this is coming!!). 13 deaths attributed on the island to the storm.

    More than max wind speed for the weather to get ya.


  • #868
    snowgal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭snowgal


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    From game over to county specific landfall!

    So meant to post this earlier too!


  • #869
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but that doesn't take terrain into account, so some areas may not see 34kt wind at all.

    Correct.


  • #870
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Watch live TV coverage from RTP Açores here. They have someone out on Flores.

    https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtpacores


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  • #871
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    John.Icy wrote: »
    What is this places obsession with Ophelia comparisons? Besides Cork there's every chance other areas will see winds like they did with Ophelia with Lorenzo.

    And that's because bar exposed southern places Ophelia delivered yellow level winds to many, orange to some (3 stations red, all Cork S.coast, 5 orange and the rest yellow).

    Out and out max intensity Lorenzo won't match what Opehlia did down in Cork BUT you should be looking at what Lorenzo is going to do in your area and cross compare to previous storms not max vs. max gusts of systems. Most of the time you're looking at what various storms have done at Malin Head or Bellmullet or the likes then!

    Just like how Storm Ali caught some by surprise in Dublin. It was only a yellow yet it matched the 104km/h gust achieved during Ophelia so it was a tasty little storm.

    Follow the forecasts and regional wind speed estimates rather than dismissing a storm because the answer to "will Lorenzo be as strong as Ophelia" is no technically. Trees are in leaf and the ground is damp, trees can fall with yellow level gusts, as seen today in Dublin - don't even think we hit yellow level gusts.

    Agree, especially as Mayo, Donegal, Sligo and I think Galway, were not affected by Ophelia. She never came our way. Thankfully..


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