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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Comments

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    #902
    Pitch n Putt
    Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭Pitch n Putt


    naughto wrote: »
    If they go red it will close schools business etc orange will go about your business

    I’m aware of the implications of red warning. I still think life etc is more important than any business. We’re talking red for 5/6 counties perhaps. The issue I have is we will start with orange in these counties and then upgrade when storm is in progress. To me that’s a more dangerous situation.
    Back to storm Darwin and the red was issued when things were too late @ 2 or 3pm kids still in school etc.


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    #903
    m17
    Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    The azores this morning (pic twitter)
    4VDjVEo.jpg


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    #904
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,900 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    You have to laugh we spend a week chasing this thing with rte going hyper and we end up with a nationwide yellow. What a waste of time this weather hobby is at times. Is Matt M working for Met Eireann now??


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    #905
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,768 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Is Matt M working for Met Eireann now??

    Has been for sometime.


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    #906
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,135 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Has been for sometime.

    You learn something new......


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    #907
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,145 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    You have to laugh we spend a week chasing this thing with rte going hyper and we end up with a nationwide yellow. What a waste of time this weather hobby is at times. Is Matt M working for Met Eireann now??

    You were right on Sunday with game over!


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    #908
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    You have to laugh we spend a week chasing this thing with rte going hyper and we end up with a nationwide yellow. What a waste of time this weather hobby is at times. Is Matt M working for Met Eireann now??

    Has it ever looked like anything more than that though? I only really started following it a couple of days ago but it either looked like missing us completely or hitting us while quickly filling and looks set to be the latter, at the end of the day it's always just going to be a bit of wind and rain

    It's an interesting system to watch but I find threads on here increasingly ridiculous these past few years, so much hype and obsession every time we get something out of the ordinary


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    #909
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    After all the hype on main news and radio the last few days. We’re going with high yellow and orange for costal counties
    I know it’s very hard for Met Éireann to nail down but I fear we’re going to get the usuyal warning upgrade once the storm is in progress
    It’s too late then for people. Red on the coast and orange everywhere else and downgrade when in progress is a wiser move.

    Massive flaw is red on the coast means red in ballinasloe or scariff for example. Practically middle of the country.

    They absolutely need to tighten the geographical areas that red can be applied to. Shutting the inland side of a sprawling county for what likely be a tidal surge elsewhere makes calling red more tricky.

    Another problem here is all these fancy graphs with a cone showing "H" in the middle, even though its not a hurricane anymore. Lots of joe bloggs assume its a hurricane.


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    #910
    Macy0161
    Registered Users Posts: 9,300 ✭✭✭Macy0161


    Perhaps they could use eircode? The start of the code is specific to an area?

    I know the UK Met let you key in a postcode for a forecast, but the environment agency let you key in your postcode for flood warnings.


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    #911
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    On its way now:

    https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1179313588206354432?s=19


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    #912
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Folks there is a chat thread for this event , THIS IS FOR TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ONLY

    CHAT THREAD !!!
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019653

    OBSERVATIONS THREAD !!!

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019484

    PLEASE KEEP TO THE RELEVANT THREADS


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    #913
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    083729-earliest-reasonable-toa-no-wsp-34.png


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    #914
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,129 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Met Eireann warning being released


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    #915
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Met Eireann warning being released

    Nationwide yellow for wind.


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    #916
    Laurali
    Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭Laurali


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    083729-earliest-reasonable-toa-no-wsp-34.png


    Is it moving faster than expected?


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    #917
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,768 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Latest path forecast.

    083729_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


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    #918
    Rodin
    Registered Users Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭Rodin


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Latest path forecast.

    083729_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    NHC update to that track in 10mins


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    #919
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,129 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Orange for the entire west coast including limerick


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    #920
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Nationwide yellow for wind.

    And now orange for the West including large parts of the South.


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    #921
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,110 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Orange down the cost from Mayo to Cork, yellow for the rest. If say that could quell the hype for a while.


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    #922
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Laurali wrote: »
    Is it moving faster than expected?

    Not sure.
    Moving NE at 43mph
    The increase was expected, but not sure if this is more or less.


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    #923
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    492064.jpg


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    #924
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Folks there is a chat thread for this event , THIS IS FOR TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ONLY

    CHAT THREAD !!!
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019653

    OBSERVATIONS THREAD !!!

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019484

    PLEASE KEEP TO THE RELEVANT THREADS


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    #925
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Yellow Rain warning now too


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    #926
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,173 ✭✭✭highdef


    *MOD SNIP to Keep on Topic *

    On topic, the latest forecasted gusts according to GFS still look to be in the same areas as before with around 120 kph for a while in coastal Mayo and west Galway. Dublin city might be so close to the eye that there is potential for almost calm conditions north of the city whilst at the same time gusts close to 100 kph in the south city.
    anim_isk4.gif

    Latest GFS charts will be available for this time period in about an hour.

    ICON is updating at the moment but it shows the eye crossing further north in the country, resulting in fairly high gusts across much of northern Leinster. As the ground in many parts of east Leinster are are currently waterlogged (yesterdays rain did not help at all), tree uprooting would likely be a a problem with this track:
    anim_ewk4.gif

    Euro 4 favours a track further south than GFS and would result in the even being mainly a Galway and Munster one with the rest of the country seeing nothing of note, wind wise. This model run would result in extensive flooding in Galway city and probably a lot of tree and infrastructure damage in south Galway and Clare:
    anim_yba3.gif

    ARPEGE has the event not too strong except in extreme western areas (including islands offshore the Mayo coast!) and has a track similar to the ICON model.
    anim_dln8.gif


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    #927
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,768 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mod Note: Thread title updated.


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    #928
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Orange alert for cork, interesting. Assuming it is for the north of county based on the model predictions. Regardless it looks like the correct places have been given the correct warnings based on all the models.


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    #929
    sideswipe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland

    Spells of heavy rain (in excess of 50mm in parts of the west and northwest) will result in some flooding.

    Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 09:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 09:00


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    #930
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    And comments and crits re forecasters etc go where please? It is very confusing indeed/ Mean that sincerely. They are not tech discussion? Not trying to be difficult; consistency//scared to post anywhere now.
    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Folks there is a chat thread for this event , THIS IS FOR TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ONLY

    CHAT THREAD !!!
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019653

    OBSERVATIONS THREAD !!!

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019484

    PLEASE KEEP TO THE RELEVANT THREADS


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    #931
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Graces7 wrote: »
    And comments and crits re forecasters etc go where please? It is very confusing indeed/ Mean that sincerely. They are not tech discussion?

    This thread is for Technical discussion , discussion of models , and obs that form scientific fact .

    General Obs go in the Observation thread , scientific ones can go here.

    General Obs would be first person accounts or what people see / feel

    Scientific would be Buoy Reports , Ship Reports , Models etc etc .

    If you are unsure where something should go, it should in the general chat thread for the storm .

    Thanks :cool:

    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Folks there is a chat thread for this event , THIS IS FOR TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ONLY

    CHAT THREAD !!!
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019653

    OBSERVATIONS THREAD !!!

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058019484

    PLEASE KEEP TO THE RELEVANT THREADS


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