The Expendawolves GAME THREAD

Conor WW wrote: »

Tbh we should plan for the bullet not going off before lynch, then if it does go to the next best plan, if Phil dies and flips red we look at xyz, if he flips green we look at abc.

No.... We have plenty of time to look at Phil flip post lynch (if we lynch him).

So is the plan:

1. If no bullet, lynch Phil.
2. If bullet and Phil good, lynch X
3. If bullet and Phil bad, lynch Y

?

Also, I said first thing this morning that I was going to move off Phil today and that I didn't think anyone else saw what I had. I'm still going to look at everyone else today with an open mind because I think we've all jumped on this without much critical analysis. Just because Dessie was right about Eva, doesn't make him infallible (or even not the SK).

Angus WW wrote: »

No.... We have plenty of time to look at Phil flip post lynch (if we lynch him).

So is the plan:

1. If no bullet, lynch Phil.
2. If bullet and Phil good, lynch X
3. If bullet and Phil bad, lynch Y

?

Also, I said first thing this morning that I was going to move off Phil today and that I didn't think anyone else saw what I had. I'm still going to look at everyone else today with an open mind because I think we've all jumped on this without much critical analysis. Just because Dessie was right about Eva, doesn't make him infallible (or even not the SK).

Sorry I meant lynch Phil if no bullet, what you've got there is what I was getting at

Necro wrote: »

Modulator Announcement

Eva WW has been blasted into oblivion.


Eva was....






Booker - an Expendawolf

Thanks vig I assume

Ive some catching up to do so

Katie or Phil for my current ffa so and see if I can find a third based on today

Necro wrote: »

Modulator Announcement

Eva WW has been blasted into oblivion.


Eva was....






Booker - an Expendawolf

Guys and Gals, anybody doing notes or trying to come up with theories or keep up, above, along with post 2 in this thread has a link to all deaths...

Jake, have you voted yet?

Conor WW wrote: »

Jake, have you voted yet?

No there is no point! If ye want I can put a vote in but mods said it will just be ignored.

Jake WW wrote: »

No there is no point! If ye want I can put a vote in but mods said it will just be ignored.

Nah, my thoughts is don't, you voting favours the wolves

Derry WW wrote: »

So you PMd mods and they replied back that your vote will be ignored?

Makes sense Isla’s vote was ignored last night too.

Conor WW wrote: »

Nah, my thoughts is don't, you voting favours the wolves

Huh?

Derry WW wrote: »

What’s your theory? If the mods are going to ignore his vote , what difference does it make?

If his vote is blocked, he's an NRV, if its not blocked they know he's an RV, the pool of NRVs and RVs is already small enough without making it easier to finally nail an RV

Conor WW wrote: »

If his vote is blocked, he's an NRV, if its not blocked they know he's an RV, the pool of NRVs and RVs is already small enough without making it easier to finally nail an RV

Ah, got ya now.

Katie WW wrote:

It is. I’m not making the mistake Isla made last night and leaving it too late.

Well this changes things.

Jake WW wrote:

It was in the original PM, I PM'd them again to see how it would appear - would it be just left off the list or put as did not vote. Just got told again that it would be ignored.

This seems unlikely.

Okay doke: Winifred

D0 - fluff + mechanics (included below)
"I'm intrigued that the OP says "wolf roles" but only provides one role - roleblocker. Maybe there is only one wolf role but I'd imagine that is not the case. The some gave skills could be the roleblocker and the sk with the explosives. However, I reckon it's more likely that we just haven't been told everything."
"Good point, then I'm wondering what the other wolf skills are since they've only given us one"
"Going back to the OP it says some have skills and others don't, implying there are at least two skilled and two unskilled which would make me go for four wolves and an SK"

D1
"I must say I don't particularly like this bit. Of course if it wasn't there someone would probably accuse them of being a wolf or sk because they knew they'd be likely to survive the munch. However, for me putting it in makes me think of a wolf/sk who is trying to cover that." Accusing me of being wolfy because I wasn't sure if i'd survive lynch. I like this actually. Coming out strong village and poking people.
"That was it Angus. I've no troubles at the moment really, what about yourself?" Has a bit of a poke at me over the next few posts
"Orla's another wolf. Jumped in very quickly on this :). http://i.imgur.com/KeaVFPX.png" having a bit of a poke at orla
"There is a slim potential benefit, albeit a risky one that if they do so it would make the jailkeeper think they've found a wolf. Although the jailkeeper would be equally as likely to think they protected someone as stopping someone from killing. Also the jailkeeper might be jailing a wolf so it wouldn't be a great idea.
All in all I don't see much benefit." mechanics about potential misfire
[gif]
"What is super tasky about it?
On the jailkeeper though you're right in that they can stop munches but probably only if they choose the munch target. However, whether or not they can prevent a munch depends on what the mods chose as their definition of 'power'. Their power could include their ability to post in a backroom and stopping that would prevent the kill order going in." reply to steve on calling her gif tasky. Wini is a lot more on the ball than I remember noticing while playing

"You think it's pretty clear. I don't think it is as clear. Agree that it is likely that they had the target in custody and that stopped it. Next most likely in my book is that there was a competition for a kill today and neither the wolves nor the SK won it. Finally, my least likely option is that the jailkeeper jailed whoever put in the munch order and because their power was blocked that meant that their kill order wasn't valid.
I will say that I think your idea is most likely but it is by no means a certainty and I think we can sometimes get ourselves into a mess by going down a certain route on the assumption that we were right about a certain thing (such as this) from the beginning." mechanics
"But also Steve, what was tasky about my post? You've not really answered that one"
[more gifs]
"Perhaps the wolf put in a kill order before night time, and then was taken in by the jailkeeper. The other wolves didn't know that the one who put in the order had been taken by the jailkeeper and so didn't put in a new name. That could mean that the kill order wasn't valid as the wolf who put it in wasn't in the wolf room any more. So there is an attack at 10am but the killing wolf (i.e. the one who put in the order) isn't there so the target survives.
The above is unlikely but I'm just saying we shouldn't just rule out other theories. I think we should acknowledge them all and then decide how to proceed until we get more information." mechanics
"Kill order wasn't valid, but the other wolves don't know that. They turn up and try to kill the target but their wolf friend isn't there so the target survives.
Anyway, Conor seems to have cleared this whole thing up." mechanics

[gif] posted at 3pm

"You thought that stance was based on something legitimate? Hmmm, Gertie Gertrude is top of my list for the moment" accuses Gertie at 8.26pm

now nothing til the below at 9am the next morning - no FFA, no discussion of who to vote, no comments on lynch, nothing?

D2
"The above makes me wonder whether they are on the wolf team with Orla but probably wouldn't want to associate yourself with her this early if you both were wolves so I'm not sure.
Why would Phil voting for Gertrude be a wolfie slip though?
Also, why is it definitely not a good look for Derry?" this is discussion on clodagh's commentary on orla/the phil voting. She's picked up the phil voting bit totally wrong which is concerning

"Well I'm waiting for Clodagh to answer the below But I am also working"
"So the wolves were on a bandwagon on Phil? But also that Brendan and Conor were on a wolf team and Conor moved off to save Brendan? Or are these separate theories?
I realise they're just theories but I'm trying to get to the bottom of them to see how possible they might be.
I don't really see the benefit yet of the executioner coming out as they might be able to gain some power at some stage." working out the phil voting
"You say that wolves will hide on day 1 but hiding can mean different things to different people.
Some try to lay low
Others try to blend in
Others hide in plain sight
The point being that saying that wolves will hide on day one seems naive as all it would take is for people to out right accuse people from the beginning and you would think they are good." Fair.
"Yes, I wasn't arguing with that. My disagreement was with your statement that wolves will hide on day one. Firstly, there are various ways of hiding. Secondly, of course wolves are trying to hide their true nature (it's the game). Finally, wolves will out right accuse people on day one, even if just to make people think that they aren't a wolf because they accused someone on day one." tactics
"@mods can we discuss answers on the thread? Probably within our interests to do so"
[gif]
"On the face of it it seems relatively straightforward in that there will be some anagrams to solve. They haven't told us how they are going to separate/use a tiebreaker if there are multiple winners, if indeed there is a tiebreaker as it mentions prizes being up for grabs. This doesn't seem like in the past where you need to pm in a certain time slot or plan to choose a number to try block the wolves. It seems to be just give the mods the correct answer(s)."
"Unless the problem/question is extremely difficult I think it is best to work on the assumption that the wolves will get it right."
gifs and mechanics discussions
"I don't mind the first idea - the shooting one that is. But Wendy if a wolf has plenty of reason to say someone is good even when they are so checking the person isn't essential but checking Wendy is" I like Wendy sometimes but it's largely mechanics with very little else.
"Policy lynching would be a good thing for wolves, most likely. I reckon Orla is a villager and policy lynching removes the possibility of hitting a wolf and lets wolves hide there." i don't know whether to call this mechanics or tactics, but does appear to be on the orla = village side of the fence

"Now I don't really like this from Steve, but in reality do I think a wolf would suggest this? Probably not. However, a wolf might be willing to back it, such as Barbara. That idea is hurt by the fact that numerous people said they would not back a policy lynch so it was not like Barbara was going into the gang." Discussing policy lynch. Accuses Steve. Backtracks. Accuses Barbara. Backtracks. All in 4 sentences. 1 is barely a sentence. I hate this post.

"Well I voted for her last time. CFD though, I'm not so sure about that. The idea does make me think your less wolfy though." now, we know isla is good but how could winni know? and why would a CFD make someone seem LESS wolfy?
"Because standard lynches always end in a good way"

"I'd agree if everyone jumped on one person but the nature of the game is that not everyone will, so you'll still probably have the person who was goign to be lynched being a significant wagon. You'll also get information from people switching onto those they didn't suspect previously, or those not switching on to someone else." winni is on the ball

above was just before lynch. Now nothing til this morning just after 9am when eva calls out Winni (bare in mind Eva is wolf:)

"The key thing there is interaction Eva. It's not a one way street"
"Great point - really? Not enough action from them? Someone has to look into them? What is stopping you? https://media2.giphy.com/media/xT3i10BdChztEzOn9m/giphy.gif" push back at katie suggesting people interact more

"In terms of lynching Orla - Conor, Liam and Jake were the ones who actually voted for her. Conor and Liam both had her on their FFA. I can't find Jake's reasoning. Barbara had said she'd support a policy lynch but then didn't vote that way."
then we have gifs, thanks to jake for pointing out his reasoning, chat with babs about her not voting

Then we have this after munch: "My main theory is from the below. I think she was hinting at having a role here" so Winnie is reading closely, she's seeing what's happening, she's just avoiding calling anyone out very hard. A couple of pokes D0 and a bit above pre-munch, but virtually zero.

"These are the two quotes I've found as Isla hinting that she might have been the one to change the lynch result the first time around. Clear and obvious - probably not but she was one of my candidates for the executioner role." talking about days gone past (but supporting my theory that it was obvious so I'll stick it in here as it's my ISO and I can do what I want!)

then a bit of back and forth with brendan, before this masterpiece:

"So here we go. There are colours in this by the way folks - red for wolf, green for goodie. It does make me feel better about Brendan and Barbara. Not sure two wolves would jump on Brendan after none on him the night before. Doesn't rule them out as SK but baby steps I suppose. I would be shocked if there were no wolves in the Phil lynch on day one, unless Phil himself is a wolf." a table summarising voters and how they flipped. I genuinely find this helpful. Winnie knows what's happening, i just don't get why she's being so quiet and not giving much away

"Yeah, Jake you mentioned that if you don't have a role action then your vote would be blocked. Presumably there was no role action to block before, so their vote didn't count.
I wouldn't put vote blocking in as part of a roleblockers power, but maybe the mods did I suppose. I think it's likely that this is just the aftermath of the explosions though." MORE mechanics



Summary

I really liked the start of this where she was accusing people but it went completely downhill after that. The vast majority of this is mechanics. Occassionally she pops in with an insight which shows that she is reading and following along, but there doesn't seem to be any real wolfhunting. There are practically no accusations in here and it just seems to be floating along under the radar. A couple of accussations she backtracked on in the same post.

I don't like it. I need to look at other players first, but if Katie is RV and Phil flips green, I'd be tempted to look here.

Jake WW wrote: »

It was in the original PM, I PM'd them again to see how it would appear - would it be just left off the list or put as did not vote. Just got told again that it would be ignored.

Well this post begs to differ

Mollyb60 wrote: »

MOD ANNOUNCEMENT:

Mods would remind all players that voting in the lynch is mandatory, not optional.

Thank you for your attention. Please continue.