Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

GM228 · 12-09-2019 05:22PM

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet but the Scottish judgement is available to read here.

It's also worth pointing out for anyone interested the UK Supreme Court is currently in recess until October, but , due to the nature of the issue will be sitting on Tuesday for the appeal with 9 judges presiding.

trellheim · 12-09-2019 05:24PM

thats the "prorogue was invalid" one, right?

GM228 · 12-09-2019 05:25PM

trellheim wrote: »

thats the "prorogue was invalid" one, right?

Yes.

A Dub in Glasgo · 12-09-2019 05:28PM

Some detail about the link GM228 posted

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1172171677867769856

prawnsambo · 12-09-2019 05:30PM

This one is pretty sharp:

And on the other hand, saying that he is ready for an exit without agreement if his requests were not accepted, as if this prospect could lead us to give up

GM228 · 12-09-2019 05:33PM

Tuesday will be an interesting day in the Supreme Court, if the decision is upheld there may be cause for using impeachment for the first time since 1806 (assuming Parliament can agree to apply it in the modern era - in reality that won't happen though).

prawnsambo · 12-09-2019 05:37PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Some detail about the link GM228 posted

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1172171677867769856

For those who don't want to read it, the salient issue is that the judges didn't believe that the length of prorogation matched the reasons given for it. The reason given being for a Queen's speech to be held to start a new legislative program. Their point being that this could have just as easily been achieved with a prorogation of a few days. Following from that, the only other plausible reason for such a long prorogation would be to avoid parliamentary scrutiny.

Professor Moriarty · 12-09-2019 05:46PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UK law now says that if Johnson is still playing chicken with the EU on the 19th of October, he has to ask the EU to reschedule the game to January 31st next year.

There can be no crash this year.

The ERG haven't got the memo yet. Fun and games when they do.

Zubeneschamali · 12-09-2019 05:56PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The ERG haven't got the memo yet. Fun and games when they do.

What exactly can the ERG do?

prawnsambo · 12-09-2019 05:58PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UK law now says that if Johnson is still playing chicken with the EU on the 19th of October, he has to ask the EU to reschedule the game to January 31st next year.

There can be no crash this year.

And the EU seem to have added "avoiding a hard brexit" to the list of things that they would grant an extension for.

As Michel Barnier said: "La balle est clairement dans le camp Britannique"

Zubeneschamali · 12-09-2019 06:04PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided.

Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?

If that was the real reason, they certainly would not tell anyone.

Professor Moriarty · 12-09-2019 06:08PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What exactly can the ERG do?

Throw tantrums. Knife Johnson in the back at the first opportunity. Destroy the Tory Party. All kinds of good stuff.

trellheim · 12-09-2019 06:12PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Can I re-ask a question which I posted a few days ago without reply?

The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided.

Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?

Its a bit tinfoil hat to be honest. They (HMG) agreed the WA in more or less good faith and the major stopping point is CU, Backstop .....

ERG want a clean break I dont like it but they've been crystal clear on it, and its apparently to be able to completely get back apparent sovereignty.

Rjd2 · 12-09-2019 06:16PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pretty mind blowing stuff here from Cadwalladr. Basically, should there not be a No Deal Brexit, a lot of people in 'the City' will lose a lot of money.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1171838817470431234

She is beginning to walk it back but obviously not enough to delete the thread with 20k retweets.:pac:

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1172145121820839936

Marina Hyde noted right winger tweeted
:pac:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/09/12/1568281802000/No-deal-Brexit-is-not-a-hedge-fund-conspiracy/

Claudia seems to be banking on her audience been very much in an echo chamber and taking her word as Gospel.

Lets see if she continues like this.

Zubeneschamali · 12-09-2019 06:22PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Throw tantrums. Knife Johnson in the back at the first opportunity. Destroy the Tory Party. All kinds of good stuff.

But Johnson, so far, has been as ERGy as he can possibly be, pushing No Deal, expelling Wets, going at it with oomph.

THis strategy has backfired spectacularly, but that just means if the ERG knife him they will get a less ERGish PM next time.

prawnsambo · 12-09-2019 06:26PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Can I re-ask a question which I posted a few days ago without reply?

The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided.

Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?

Afaik, most of the ATAD has been implemented in UK law or was to be under the 2019 Finance Act (January 2019 or thereabouts) leaving only the law on reverse hybrids which doesn't have to be implemented until January 2022 (after the TP has expired). So that's the only bit that could be (potentially) avoided (;)) by the UK.

Professor Moriarty · 12-09-2019 06:34PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But Johnson, so far, has been as ERGy as he can possibly be, pushing No Deal, expelling Wets, going at it with oomph.

THis strategy has backfired spectacularly, but that just means if the ERG knife him they will get a less ERGish PM next time.

That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause.

woohoo!!! · 12-09-2019 06:40PM

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Rjd2 · 12-09-2019 06:43PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause.

Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf.

Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids.

The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma.

Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit.

Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.

woohoo!!! · 12-09-2019 06:50PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause.

Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf.

Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids.

The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma.

Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit.

Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.

The cult of personality dominates in this social media age. Folk will forgive the funny affable guy or girl an awful lot, or the one that calls it as it is. Half of Mays problem is that she was wooden, not what she was trying from a British perspective. She wasn't likable so she couldn't bring folk with her on the difficult details. Johnson just might be able to pull it off. They can call it whatever the hell they like once they sign a WA.

prawnsambo · 12-09-2019 06:51PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Two separate cases there. The NO case has just started, so there could be another SC appeal further down the road. As to whether the EU would respect it, I don't see how they could not. Anything else would be a statement to the effect that they don't recognise the British courts.

Professor Moriarty · 12-09-2019 06:54PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf.

Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids.

The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma.

Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit.

Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.

Well, I wouldn't see Mordaunt or Javid as anything other than Brexiteers. Raab is, well, a rabid Brexiteer. Anyway, the point is that they will do say or whatever it takes to become PM. And that would include necessarily pandering to the ERG. Patel has no chance as she's a lightweight. You're point about charisma is spot on (must not mention Corbyn...), but if Johnson reneges on his many pledges to take the UK out on the 31st then the ERG will turn on him. I can't see the likes of Francois, Mogg, Baker etc. happily accepting another extension.

woohoo!!! · 12-09-2019 06:54PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Two separate cases there. The NO case has just started, so there could be another SC appeal further down the road. As to whether the EU would respect it, I don't see how they could not. Anything else would be a statement to the effect that they don't recognise the British courts.

As ever with Brexit, it's unknown territory.

Rjd2 · 12-09-2019 07:13PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, I wouldn't see Mordaunt or Javid as anything other than Brexiteers. Raab is, well, a rabid Brexiteer. Anyway, the point is that they will do say or whatever it takes to become PM. And that would include necessarily pandering to the ERG. Patel has no chance as she's a lightweight. You're point about charisma is spot on (must not mention Corbyn...), but if Johnson reneges on his many pledges to take the UK out on the 31st then the ERG will turn on him. I can't see the likes of Francois, Mogg, Baker etc. happily accepting another extension.

ERG should know by now without Boris they are ****ed. The rest of them simply don't have the charisma to reach the number of people Boris does.

What Boris has to sell to the masses you need an incredibly charismatic politician to do that as for many of the intended audience, leave isn't in their interest!

Heck imagine if leave did not have Cummings or Bojo? They would not have got 40% in 2016.

Its Boris or no Brexit soft, hard whatever.

Professor Moriarty · 12-09-2019 07:20PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

ERG should know by now without Boris they are ****ed. The rest of them simply don't have the charisma to reach the number of people Boris does.

What Boris has to sell to the masses you need an incredibly charismatic politician to do that as for many of the intended audience, leave isn't in their interest!

Heck imagine if leave did not have Cummings or Bojo? They would not have got 40% in 2016.

Its Boris or no Brexit soft, hard whatever.

I read a piece of research last year which found that the decisive factor in Leave's win was Johnson and Farage's personalities. I think if they were solid and rational politicians then the ERG would stick by him. But if he looks for an extension then I can't see them doing anything other than going bananas. Maybe if he throws NI under the bus, but I still can't see it.

prawnsambo · 12-09-2019 07:31PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I read a piece of research last year which found that the decisive factor in Leave's win was Johnson and Farage's personalities. I think if they were solid and rational politicians then the ERG would stick by him. But if he looks for an extension then I can't see them doing anything other than going bananas. Maybe if he throws NI under the bus, but I still can't see it.

Well he's not going to look for one. Because he doesn't have to. Hillary Benn and the NO case are likely to do it without him.

Professor Moriarty · 12-09-2019 07:37PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well he's not going to look for one. Because he doesn't have to. Hillary Benn and the NO case are likely to do it without him.

Exactly. It's everyone's get out jail free card.

A Dub in Glasgo · 12-09-2019 07:42PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Final say on the prorogue, will say nothing on the case lodged today

Varta · 12-09-2019 08:09PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Final say on the prorogue, will say nothing on the case lodged today

It really is very hard to see the EU deal with anyone other than the PM. The last thing they would do is come to an agreement with a document signed by judges. Just imagine the fallout from that. No, they have kept a respectable distance from the carry on in the UK and they will continue to do so.

MadYaker · 12-09-2019 08:11PM

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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