trellheim wrote: » thats the "prorogue was invalid" one, right?
And on the other hand, saying that he is ready for an exit without agreement if his requests were not accepted, as if this prospect could lead us to give up
A Dub in Glasgo wrote: » Some detail about the link GM228 postedhttps://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1172171677867769856
Zubeneschamali wrote: » UK law now says that if Johnson is still playing chicken with the EU on the 19th of October, he has to ask the EU to reschedule the game to January 31st next year. There can be no crash this year.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » The ERG haven't got the memo yet. Fun and games when they do.
funkey_monkey wrote: » The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided. Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?
Zubeneschamali wrote: » What exactly can the ERG do?
funkey_monkey wrote: » Can I re-ask a question which I posted a few days ago without reply? The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided. Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?
J Mysterio wrote: » Pretty mind blowing stuff here from Cadwalladr. Basically, should there not be a No Deal Brexit, a lot of people in 'the City' will lose a lot of money.https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1171838817470431234
Professor Moriarty wrote: » Throw tantrums. Knife Johnson in the back at the first opportunity. Destroy the Tory Party. All kinds of good stuff.
Zubeneschamali wrote: » But Johnson, so far, has been as ERGy as he can possibly be, pushing No Deal, expelling Wets, going at it with oomph. THis strategy has backfired spectacularly, but that just means if the ERG knife him they will get a less ERGish PM next time.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause.
Rjd2 wrote: » Professor Moriarty wrote: » That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause. Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf. Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids. The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma. Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit. Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.
woohoo!!! wrote: » An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.
Rjd2 wrote: » Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf. Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids. The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma. Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit. Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.
prawnsambo wrote: » woohoo!!! wrote: » An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say. Two separate cases there. The NO case has just started, so there could be another SC appeal further down the road. As to whether the EU would respect it, I don't see how they could not. Anything else would be a statement to the effect that they don't recognise the British courts.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » Well, I wouldn't see Mordaunt or Javid as anything other than Brexiteers. Raab is, well, a rabid Brexiteer. Anyway, the point is that they will do say or whatever it takes to become PM. And that would include necessarily pandering to the ERG. Patel has no chance as she's a lightweight. You're point about charisma is spot on (must not mention Corbyn...), but if Johnson reneges on his many pledges to take the UK out on the 31st then the ERG will turn on him. I can't see the likes of Francois, Mogg, Baker etc. happily accepting another extension.
Rjd2 wrote: » ERG should know by now without Boris they are ****ed. The rest of them simply don't have the charisma to reach the number of people Boris does. What Boris has to sell to the masses you need an incredibly charismatic politician to do that as for many of the intended audience, leave isn't in their interest! Heck imagine if leave did not have Cummings or Bojo? They would not have got 40% in 2016. Its Boris or no Brexit soft, hard whatever.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » I read a piece of research last year which found that the decisive factor in Leave's win was Johnson and Farage's personalities. I think if they were solid and rational politicians then the ERG would stick by him. But if he looks for an extension then I can't see them doing anything other than going bananas. Maybe if he throws NI under the bus, but I still can't see it.
prawnsambo wrote: » Well he's not going to look for one. Because he doesn't have to. Hillary Benn and the NO case are likely to do it without him.
A Dub in Glasgo wrote: » Final say on the prorogue, will say nothing on the case lodged today
