Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

fash · 10-09-2019 04:12PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

The core issue is that Brexit means that it must be one or the other. It is terrible that that is the case, but that is how it is. The UK wants to leave the EU and that fundamentally changes the current situation with regards to UK/NI/ROI.

They have hummed and hawwed for three years trying to come to a solution which means nothing has to change, but everyone accepts that it is not possible based on the UK leaving.

So the only consideration is which is the least damaging to NI as a whole. Of course identity is a major factor, and I agree with you points about a sea border being the same as a land border to the DUP and others, but the alternative is an actual land border.

You are making it out as if their is another way. And I say again, whichever direction or option is gone for it will entirely on the basis of what the UK wants, or at least accepted.

Correct: it is true that a border in any location changes the status quo, however a land border is more disruptive than a sea border. Furthermore, the DUP campaigned for brexit (i.e. to change the status quo) and supported a particularly hard brexit which requires a border (again to change the status quo).
What right do they have to complain that the status quo is now changing?

flanna01 · 10-09-2019 04:55PM

The DUP need to look at the bigger picture..

They are about 700yrs behind modern society, their political clout is declining rapidly.

In another ten or twenty years, there will be a United Ireland weather they like it or not. The GFA which was agreed upon will ensure this happens sooner rather than later.

Look at the even bigger picture... It doesn't really matter what piece of rock you cling to. Be it the UK rock, the Irish rock, or the tip of Northern Ireland land mass.... We'er all practically the same, put the bigotry behind us, and embrace the future..

LeinsterDub · 10-09-2019 04:55PM

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1171447467755229186

A lot of talk recently of the NI only backstop being revived and maybe slight polished . The ERG would of course reject this but you might get some labour rebels on board. Is this a realistic proposal or just the last viable hope of no deal being trashed out before being killing reality being force upon it.

hill16bhoy · 10-09-2019 04:58PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

1. A border in the Irish Sea is not commensurate with a border across Ireland. Border in the Irish sea is not a 'hard border', it is a natural one - it's a fuçking sea. Checks can take place with goods in transit - no time wasted.

2. NI voted to remain in the EU. The DUP do not speak for NI.

3. The DUP unequivocally support the UK and so they have to deal with the consequences of their actions.

4. The backstop is an unbelievable deal for NI, rendering it a special economic zone and offers the best of both worlds to them.

An NI-only backstop may be a "good deal" in purely economic terms (it still isn't nearly as good as the current situation) - but that isn't the point - the point is that it takes Northern Ireland out of the same customs zone as the rest of the UK, and crucially, in identity terms, weakens the ties between NI and Britain.

We in the Republic don't want our ties to the North weakened. Unionists don't want their ties to Britain to be weakened either.

Even though I aspire to see a united Ireland, I can understand their view.

Yes, there's a sea. There's sea between different parts of lots of countries.

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France, or South Islanders in New Zealand if they were transferred into a different customs zone to North Island, Sicily and Italy, Crete and Greece etc. etc.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 04:59PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1171447467755229186

A lot of talk recently of the NI only backstop being revived and maybe slight polished . The ERG would of course reject this but you might get some labour rebels on board. Is this a realistic proposal or just the last viable hope of no deal being trashed out before being killing reality being force upon it.

I don't know that the ERG would definitively reject it. It has the major bonus of allowing the UK make trade deals (and whatever else they want to do post TP) that they couldn't if they were in the all-UK backstop. All the level playing field stuff that they didn't like is gone too. So other than loyalty to the DUP [snigger], there's not much they could object to in principle.

Igotadose · 10-09-2019 05:02PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't know that the ERG would definitively reject it. It has the major bonus of allowing the UK make trade deals (and whatever else they want to do post TP) that they couldn't if they were in the all-UK backstop. All the level playing field stuff that they didn't like is gone too. So other than loyalty to the DUP [snigger], there's not much they could object to in principle.

It still contains the tax-avoidance laws that the ERG despise. So, I expect they'll be against it still. Nope, no new deal before 19 October, then a request for suspension for an election in November.

Water John · 10-09-2019 05:02PM

The ERG will vote for it if they perceive this as the only Brexit route available.

lawred2 · 10-09-2019 05:03PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

An NI-only backstop may be a "good deal" in purely economic terms (it still isn't nearly as good as the current situation) - but that isn't the point - the point is that it takes Northern Ireland out of the same customs zone as the rest of the UK, and crucially, in identity terms, weakens the ties between NI and Britain.

We in the Republic don't want our ties to the North weakened. Unionists don't want their ties to Britain to be weakened either.

Even though I aspire to see a united Ireland, I can understand their view.

Yes, there's a sea. There's sea between different parts of lots of countries.

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France, or South Islanders in New Zealand if they were transferred into a different customs zone to North Island, Sicily and Italy, Crete and Greece etc. etc.

Are any of those partitioned?

Split between inside and outside a major international cooperative and regulated socio-political trading union?

With all inhabitants possessing the right to dual citizenship?

No?

Oh right

FrancieBrady · 10-09-2019 05:05PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

An NI-only backstop may be a "good deal" in purely economic terms (it still isn't nearly as good as the current situation) - but that isn't the point - the point is that it takes Northern Ireland out of the same customs zone as the rest of the UK, and crucially, in identity terms, weakens the ties between NI and Britain.

We in the Republic don't want our ties to the North weakened. Unionists don't want their ties to Britain to be weakened either.

Even though I aspire to see a united Ireland, I can understand their view.

Yes, there's a sea. There's sea between different parts of lots of countries.

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France, or South Islanders in New Zealand if they were transferred into a different customs zone to North Island, Sicily and Italy, Crete and Greece etc. etc.

Would they put up with it (as this 'separation' is a purely abstract thing*) if the alternative was economic disaster? I think they would.

fash · 10-09-2019 05:05PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France, or South Islanders in New Zealand if they were transferred into a different customs zone to North Island, Sicily and Italy, Crete and Greece etc. etc.

The Corsicans, Kiwis etc. never campaigned for a change to the status quo and sought a change that required the installation of a new border.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-09-2019 05:08PM

I see the DUP have been summoned to Downing Street.

A "whiskey and revolver" moment?

Water John · 10-09-2019 05:09PM

Most of them don't drink alcohol, so that's Hobson's choice.

Harry Palmr · 10-09-2019 05:10PM

Quite a potential test of character coming up for Ulster Unionism - to which are they more loyal - the Crown or the half crown?

LeinsterDub · 10-09-2019 05:12PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't know that the ERG would definitively reject it. It has the major bonus of allowing the UK make trade deals (and whatever else they want to do post TP) that they couldn't if they were in the all-UK backstop. All the level playing field stuff that they didn't like is gone too. So other than loyalty to the DUP [snigger], there's not much they could object to in principle.

Aren't they on record saying they'll reject the WA no matter what even if the backstop is removed?

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 05:13PM

Igotadose wrote: »

It still contains the tax-avoidance laws that the ERG despise. So, I expect they'll be against it still. Nope, no new deal before 19 October, then a request for suspension for an election in November.

I stand to be corrected on this, but I don't think that's in the WA except the TP and backstop. And possibly future relationship, but that's a movable feast anyway.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 05:14PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Aren't they on record saying they'll reject the WA no matter what even if the backstop is removed?

Yes. Because there were 'level playing field' conditions that may not need to be there if the all-UK backstop were dropped. Or at least that's what I heard them objecting to.

hill16bhoy · 10-09-2019 05:16PM

flanna01 wrote: »

The DUP need to look at the bigger picture..

They are about 700yrs behind modern society, their political clout is declining rapidly.

In another ten or twenty years, there will be a United Ireland weather they like it or not. The GFA which was agreed upon will ensure this happens sooner rather than later.

Look at the even bigger picture... It doesn't really matter what piece of rock you cling to. Be it the UK rock, the Irish rock, or the tip of Northern Ireland land mass.... We'er all practically the same, put the bigotry behind us, and embrace the future..

The DUP are mostly bigots, but your third paragraph there is the exact sort of almost trolling Republican rhetoric I was talking about earlier.

Nobody knows what the next 10 or 20 years will bring.

It may bring some form of united Ireland, equally it may not and any united Ireland could still be many decades away if indeed it ever happens.

But shouting at unionists that there is going to be a united Ireland in the next 20 years whether they like or not is not the best way to bring it about, and neither is dismissing their concerns about being forcibly taken out of the customs union of what, remember, is still currently their own country.

I hope this NI-only backstop does not happen, because while it's obviously of paramount importance to keep the current open border in Ireland, I also see it as a matter of great importance that no restrictions are put on trade in an east-west direction.

Neither do I see it as a matter of hilarity if Britain effectively throws unionists under a bus, because I respect unionists' right to their identity.

I think there's a lot of schadenfreude in Ireland in this regard, and its unhelpful. Respect is a two way street.

hometruths · 10-09-2019 05:23PM

If Johnson brings the WA to the house with the border down the sea, before any election, his ruthlessness with Clarke, Soames etc may yet serve him well.

One Nation Tories will probably vote for the WA in the national interest, but the ERG etc may think twice about voting against it, if they know there is an election coming up and they will be thrown out and deselected.

After all if Johnson is prepared to fire the father of the house and Churchill's grandson he won't think twice about firing Brexit's hard man.

Itssoeasy · 10-09-2019 05:23PM

Water John wrote: »

Most of them don't drink alcohol, so that's Hobson's choice.

I'd say their weddings and funerals are great craic.

10-09-2019 05:25PM

I love the play and drama. Relax. There's no crash out. it's NI who will be saved and the DUP will save face for having fought.

I had beers with my Brexiteer friend when Boris became PM and we saw this as the likely outcome. It's what's going to happen. It's grand.

Shelga · 10-09-2019 05:25PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

The DUP are mostly bigots, but your third paragraph there is the exact sort of almost trolling Republican rhetoric I was talking about earlier.

Nobody knows what the next 10 or 20 years will bring.

It may bring some form of united Ireland, equally it may not and any united Ireland could still be many decades away if indeed it ever happens.

But shouting at unionists that there is going to be a united Ireland in the next 20 years whether they like or not is not the best way to bring it about, and neither is dismissing their concerns about being forcibly taken out of the customs union of what, remember, is still currently their own country.

I hope this NI-only backstop does not happen, because while it's obviously of paramount importance to keep the current open border in Ireland, I also see it as a matter of great importance that no restrictions are put on trade in an east-west direction.

Neither do I see it as a matter of hilarity if Britain effectively throws unionists under a bus, because I respect unionists' right to their identity.

I think there's a lot of schadenfreude in Ireland in this regard, and its unhelpful. Respect is a two way street.

Well said. I agree. Unfortunately I think it’s all too easy to forget that the DUP do not speak for all unionists, not even close.

hill16bhoy · 10-09-2019 05:30PM

fash wrote: »

The Corsicans, Kiwis etc. never campaigned for a change to the status quo and sought a change that required the installation of a new border.

For all their bigotry I don't believe the DUP have ever campaigned for a hard border in Ireland either during this process.

They campaigned on what the Brexiteers in England did - unicorns and visions of sunlit uplands - ie. to keep all of the benefits of EU membership and dispense with all responsibilities - a massive free lunch in other words.

Northern Ireland's votes did not make the difference in the referendum however, and even had the DUP campaigned for remain, they'd still be in the same position they are in now.

I don't see stupidity as a crime and I don't see it as worthy of punishment by the imposition of something nobody really wants either.

Itssoeasy · 10-09-2019 05:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I love the play and drama. Relax. There's no crash out. it's NI who will be saved and the DUP will save face for having fought.

I had beers with my Brexiteer friend when Boris became PM and we saw this as the likely outcome. It's what's going to happen. It's grand.

I take it you'll be winning the lottery this week ?

hometruths · 10-09-2019 05:31PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Neither do I see it as a matter of hilarity if Britain effectively throws unionists under a bus, because I respect unionists' right to their identity.

I think there's a lot of schadenfreude in Ireland in this regard, and its unhelpful. Respect is a two way street.

I would dearly love to see the DUP thrown under the bus, not because of any Nationalist/Unionist ideology, but because they have behaved abominably in this whole sorry mess.

Schadenfreude it may be, but boy do they have it coming. And it is important to remember that if NI is offered a special status enabling it to trade freely with both the EU and the UK, surely that is a wonderful result for the people of NI, the DUP's constituents?

The fact that they would rather see NI suffer than compromise on their paranoid blood red lines because they are terrified of 'greens under the bed', to me suggests they don't deserve respect.

10-09-2019 05:34PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I take it you'll be winning the lottery this week ?

If I could easily put money on it, I would.

I'm already losing to that guy from a previous bet where I didn't think they'd leave at all.

My opinion stands. I think it's going to be grand. This is all just chaos before the backstop gets put on NI only.

jimmycrackcorm · 10-09-2019 05:36PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

An NI-only backstop may be a "good deal" in purely economic terms (it still isn't nearly as good as the current situation) - but that isn't the point - the point is that it takes Northern Ireland out of the same customs zone as the rest of the UK, and crucially, in identity terms, weakens the ties between NI and Britain.

We in the Republic don't want our ties to the North weakened. Unionists don't want their ties to Britain to be weakened either.
.

I think this analysis is incorrect. There is no change in British identity of there is Sara border. It already exists for SPS and it's ridiculous for unionists to claim they don't want a divergence from the rest of the UK when they were happy to block SSM and abortion that the rest of the UK has.

They also wanted a lower corporate tax rate to rival the ROI that was different than GB.
So it's clear that divergence is acceptable.

But an inland border is definitely a break in the identity fundamentals that unsub the GFA.
What you are aluding to is that the DUP sense of Britishness is to ignore the wider community and what is best for it.
They should actually recognize that SF are inwardly pleased about the prospect of a hard brexit that will drive reunification sooner

Kermit.de.frog · 10-09-2019 05:40PM

BBC reporting that Boris Johnson is currently presenting the DUP with it's Brexit "options".

All the options in no particular order are:

1. Closer integration with the south
2. Closer integration with the south
3. Closer integration with the south

The DUP votes are completely irrelevant to the Tories now and Boris needs a quick deal.

One way or another the DUP has damaged NI's position in the UK. It's just a question of "to what extent?"

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 05:44PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm already losing to that guy from a previous bet where I didn't think they'd leave at all.

I don't think you have lost that bet yet.

If Parliament rejects whatever deal Johnson brings back from Brussels in October (if he gets a deal at all), then an extension, election, referendum and revocation of A50 are perfectly possible.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 05:44PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If I could easily put money on it, I would.

I'm already losing to that guy from a previous bet where I didn't think they'd leave at all.

My opinion stands. I think it's going to be grand. This is all just chaos before the backstop gets put on NI only.

If that was the plan all along, then when you look back on what's happened, you'd have to either think it's the most fortuitous series of coincidences or a very clever plan.

Like how do you convince the opposition to not vote your government out of office when you haven't the numbers to stop them?

CelticRambler · 10-09-2019 05:48PM

Point of order, Mr. Speaker!

hill16bhoy wrote: »

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France ...

fash wrote: »

The Corsicans, Kiwis etc. never campaigned for a change to the status quo and sought a change that required the installation of a new border.

Don't go citing the Corsicans as examples of a model of how the DUP should behave! :eek: There is a very active independence movement in Corsica, quite happy to accidentally set fire to any building associated with French rule on the island. They would love nothing more than a change to the status quo, especially if that meant having a shiny new border with France and being allowed speak their own language in their own regional government.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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