Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

murphaph · 10-09-2019 11:50AM

With Foster on a plane to London this morning you'd have to suppose that the NI only backstop is firmly back on the Tory agenda.

I hope it happens this way and the UK leaves and takes their rabble in the EP with them. NI might actually do well out of it and it's economy could move closer to ours. This would certainly make any thoughts of a UI in the future more realistic.

They need a period of reflection outside the EU. The EU needs to focus on other things and in 10 years maybe things will be different. Maybe not.

Itssoeasy · 10-09-2019 11:58AM

Right I went to bed at half twelve because one I had to get up early this morning and two because I assumed the process once Boris Johnson lost the vote it would be over quickly. But from reading Twitter this morning and seeing video on sky news it went on until nearly half one and it became even more farcical than it had been earlier in the evening. I mean the shambles comes to mind.

J Mysterio · 10-09-2019 12:01PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

What could be loosely termed as the Catholic/Nationalist/Republican community in Ireland, both north and south, rightly rejects a hard border in Ireland, yet many of us seem to think it’s A-OK to just plonk one in the Irish sea without the consent of Unionists.

That’s anti the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.

We insist our concerns be listened to, why should we just dismiss the concerns of Unionists who see a border being placed in their own country?

They will see it as being hoodwinked into a united Ireland against their will - and their point of view is entirely fair.

There's a strand of rabble rousing trolling amongst the CNR community that has been quite sympathetic to Brexit, and goads Brexiteers to throw Unionists under a bus.

But this this is not the way any future united Ireland should happen.

We say rightly that there is a massive risk of any north-south hard border infrastucture being attacked by dissident Republicans - yet we completely discount the risk that any east-west hard border infrastructure could be attacked by Loyalists.

We say rightly that Irish people should not be divided, yet many of us do not apply the same standard when it comes to Unionists' relationship to Britain. That's a double standard.

NI creates a set of circumstances which are unique in Europe.

There has to be free movement both north-south and east-west.

Given this, the hard Brexiteers’ position is fundamentally untenable because of NI and will always be, because it requires free movement in one direction to end.

The hard Brexiteers are demanding something which was never, ever campaigned for or voted for - they are nihilists who need to be defeated because it’s not just British society they are out to ruin, but our peace - and even an NI only backstop runs its own risk of doing that.

1. A border in the Irish Sea is not commensurate with a border across Ireland. Border in the Irish sea is not a 'hard border', it is a natural one - it's a fuçking sea. Checks can take place with goods in transit - no time wasted.

2. NI voted to remain in the EU. The DUP do not speak for NI.

3. The DUP unequivocally support the UK and so they have to deal with the consequences of their actions.

4. The backstop is an unbelievable deal for NI, rendering it a special economic zone and offers the best of both worlds to them.

gmisk · 10-09-2019 12:02PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

1. A border in the Irish Sea is not commensurate with a border across Ireland. Border in the Irish sea is not a 'hard border', it is a natural one - it's a fuçking sea. Checks can take place with goods in transit - no time wasted.

2. NI voted to remain in the EU. The DUP do not speak for NI.

3. The DUP unequivocally support the UK and so they have to deal with the consequences of their actions.

4. The backstop is an unbelievable deal for NI, rendering it a special economic zone and offers the best of both worlds to them.

Thats the heart of the matter really...if the DUP werent so thick headed they would have jumped at the chance (as would the SNP if there was any chance!)

Igotadose · 10-09-2019 12:06PM

gmisk wrote: »

Thats the heart of the matter really...if the DUP werent so thick headed they would have jumped at the chance (as would the SNP if there was any chance!)

If the UK had a half brain, Belfast could become Singapore of the UK. Proximity to the EU, easy access to the UK... The DUP just want to throw bombs.

CelticRambler · 10-09-2019 12:06PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was to make it possible for two identities to share one land - that to those who consider themselves Irish should be able to do so in a practical way, with no border on the island of Ireland, while those who identify as British, or, if you want to be pedantic about United Kingdomish, can continue to do so.

The DUP are not actually the problem here. The problem is the hard Brexiteers, who continue to insist on "solutions" that nobody campaigned for and nobody voted for.

Despite living on a rock over 2000km from London, the Gibraltarians have no problem identifying as British. They've got their red letterboxes, the pound and the Queen's head on a stamp.

The DUP's opposition to the idea of an administrative border aligned with the geographical border that is the Irish Sea on the grounds that it might somehow make them "less British" is nothing more than a sign of profound psychological and political insecurity.

In that respect, they are exactly the same as the hard Brexiters and therefore they are indeed part of the problem.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 12:06PM

murphaph wrote: »

They need a period of reflection outside the EU. The EU needs to focus on other things

It won't work. If they leave with a WA, we just move to the next phase, 2 years of Future Relationship talks, more deadlines whooshing by, more headlines, summits, wobblers and stunts.

If they crash out without a WA, it is worse and there is even more pressure on both sides to get a deal and more focus on it.

The only way this largely goes away for the EU is if the UK decide to remain, then most of the screaming will be confined to London (with the exception of the Brexiteer contingent in the European Parliament who will be an ongoing pain in the ass.)

Professor Moriarty · 10-09-2019 12:24PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Since the polls say NI would vote for an NI only backstop, that would get them around the optics of stabbing the DUP in the back to save Brexit.

But it can't happen before Oct. 31st so it doesn't really help Johnson.

Likewise the idea of getting Stormont to agree to the NI backstop - no way is Stormont going to be up and running before Oct 31st.

But the EU would probably offer an extension if Johnson were going to do the sensible thing and have a backstop referendum in NI. Oh wait, Johnson categorically ruled out an extension last night in the HoC. Ah well.

lawred2 · 10-09-2019 12:25PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the EU would probably offer an extension if Johnson were going to do the sensible thing and have a backstop referendum in NI. Oh wait, Johnson categorically ruled out an extension last night in the HoC. Ah well.

so it's a deal then? or breaking the law of the land?

Headshot · 10-09-2019 12:32PM

Anyone have that video of BJ doing exercises during the press conference with Leo yesterday?

Professor Moriarty · 10-09-2019 12:34PM

lawred2 wrote: »

so it's a deal then? or breaking the law of the land?

Yes but no but. Maybe.

Johnson is increasingly looking like a person who is genuinely losing control of his thoughts. His appearance and demeanour seem as if he has aged 10 years in 5 weeks. He's obviously not coping with the stress. At best, his behaviour could be described as erratic and impulsive. I suspect that part of this stress is that, driven by ambition, he is doing things that run counter to some of his intrinsic principles and those of his family. Cummings and his Leave gang are not a natural fit for the Johnson family and they are controlling Johnson. Hence the cognitive dissonance and consequential stress.

jm08 · 10-09-2019 12:34PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

An all-UK backstop would stabilise NI, because it would guarantee the continuation of the present circumstances both north-south and east-west.

But an NI-only backstop changes the east-west circumstances.

Well, its up to the DUP to sell it to their friends in the ERG and BJohnson. That all UK offer is there from the EU.

lawred2 · 10-09-2019 12:35PM

Headshot wrote: »

Anyone have that video of BJ doing exercises during the press conference with Leo yesterday?

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1171052439111442432

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 12:38PM

Headshot wrote: »

Anyone have that video of BJ doing exercises during the press conference with Leo yesterday?

I saw this one. Probably not suitable for this thread, but it was objectively funny and quite a remarkable bit of video editing.

Enzokk · 10-09-2019 12:38PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Right I went to bed at half twelve because one I had to get up early this morning and two because I assumed the process once Boris Johnson lost the vote it would be over quickly. But from reading Twitter this morning and seeing video on sky news it went on until nearly half one and it became even more farcical than it had been earlier in the evening. I mean the shambles comes to mind.

It was a shambles, MPs making points that made no sense at all that contradicted their own points in the same speech (Tory Brexit is what the country want, but the SNP thinks they speak for Scotland, work that one out for me) and a general boisterousness where I believe a few MPs had a drink or ten before going back to work.

Here is some highlights of the end of it.

https://twitter.com/mpc_1968/status/1171234922717220864?s=20

Back to Brexit, seems like the ball is in the UK court (like we didn't know it already),

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1171375158730342401?s=20

The EU has done well to troll the UK in all of this, appointing Phil Hogan as Trade Commissioner as well.

And finally, lets see how much credibility the Nicky Morgan has,

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1171292483659190274?s=20

That is none then, out for herself, she will fit in well with her boss then.

Shelga · 10-09-2019 12:40PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

The DUP are in a bind though. If the HoC passes the WA, with whatever flavour of the backstop, how can they claim to be part of the UK and respect the will of the people and at the same time decry the UK?

Their mantra that NI must exit on the same terms is not based on anything expect their own wishes and they can't complain if the UK, as a while, decides something else.

It is the same for Scotland. They either accept Brexit outcome or the alternative is to leave the UK.

That’s a really good point. The DUP’s standard defence, when it is pointed out to them that Northern Ireland voted Remain, is that Brexit is an all-UK decision, and they are part of the UK.

If a NI-only backstop gets through the HoC, they are then put in a position where they have to accept this, as it is parliament’s will, or accept that the rest of the UK does not care about the DUP’s version of ‘the union’ as much as the DUP themselves do. This has been obvious to everyone else from day one, but they’ve been allowed to be publicly in denial about this til now. This would really be a massive paradox of their entire ridiculous ideology, surely?

Now I want to see Sammy Wilson’s red face on Newsnight, apoplectic with rage, after THAT vote happens!

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 12:42PM

Phil Hogan confirmed as EU Trade Commissioner and starts the way he intends to continue.

Water John · 10-09-2019 12:46PM

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

murphaph · 10-09-2019 12:49PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It won't work. If they leave with a WA, we just move to the next phase, 2 years of Future Relationship talks, more deadlines whooshing by, more headlines, summits, wobblers and stunts.

If they crash out without a WA, it is worse and there is even more pressure on both sides to get a deal and more focus on it.

The only way this largely goes away for the EU is if the UK decide to remain, then most of the screaming will be confined to London (with the exception of the Brexiteer contingent in the European Parliament who will be an ongoing pain in the ass.)

My bold. But they would not be a member state of the European Union after the 31st of October so could not be the malign influence on the EU I fear they could become if they are not "allowed" to leave.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 12:50PM

Water John wrote: »

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

It's the one option that he can get agreement from the EuCo on quickly and bring back to parliament for a vote in the time available. He's obviously hoping that with the time pressures bearing down on MPs, many of them will back it as the least worst option and end the stalemate.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 12:56PM

Water John wrote: »

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter.

Absolutely no way LibDems or SNP back it. Labour leadership, no, not when they have Johnson on the ropes.

A few, <10 Labour rebels might back it, but more than 10 ERG types will vote against along with the DUP unless they get a really huge bribe, up front in used notes, since no-one can trust this Government. The 21 expelled Tories will probably not feel much like helping Johnson out of a hole, even if they voted for May's similar deal before.

Zubeneschamali · 10-09-2019 12:59PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

He's obviously hoping that with the time pressures bearing down on MPs, many of them will back it as the least worst option and end the stalemate.

This can't work now as all they have to do is reject it to force him to request an extension (or resign, or be replaced).

It's really clear that the reason he wanted No Deal on the table was to threaten MPs with it, not the EU.

Leroy42 · 10-09-2019 12:59PM

Water John wrote: »

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

Whilst I think he has made massive mis-steps throughout, I do think that this was his plan all along. He could not have really believed that his tough man act would actually make any difference in the EU, what he was asking for was simply no possible to give and the fact that he climbed down so quickly on his original demand of only talking once the backstop was removed is a sign of that.

I think he knew that WA was a non runner at the current time, something had to change for it to get through. The numbers against had been reducing but he needed something else. Making the HoC believe that he was mad enough to go with No Deal, as he is still running with despite the recent legislation calling for an extension, is IMO designed to push the HoC into an either/or position.

And tbf, the HoC has for too long continued to say what it doesn't want, but cannot agree on what it wants. So wind the clock down but don't blink like TM did. But the HoC never believed that TM would go with No Deal so a vote against any deal was a free vote. With the clock ticking down to 31st, and now with parliament suspended, he can simply wait it out with the plan to turn up on 19th or whatever (the 11th Hour) with a final offer. WA (with NI only backstop) or No Deal.

Water John · 10-09-2019 01:10PM

They also know Cummings has no issue with a Crash Out Brexit and is the person calling the shots.

prawnsambo · 10-09-2019 01:14PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This can't work now as all they have to do is reject it to force him to request an extension (or resign, or be replaced).

It's really clear that the reason he wanted No Deal on the table was to threaten MPs with it, not the EU.

But getting an extension only kicks the can down the road. It doesn't even come with a guarantee that it would be granted. Especially with a viable (according to Johnson) deal on the table that may only be rejected by a small majority.

And he could get the numbers. If he gets the DUP on side (and the noises coming from that quarter could suggest that), then the ERG hardliners would be happy on that front and would also put the 'Singapore on Thames' holy grail within their reach. The option facing them if they reject it is an extension, an election and the possibility that Corbyn could get into No. 10.

It's a last chance saloon, beyond which is a very uncertain future.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-09-2019 01:22PM

The Telegraph is on Hogan's case. Good sign.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/european-commission-names-irish-brexit-critic-handle-eu-uk-trade/

Panrich · 10-09-2019 01:23PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Phil Hogan confirmed as EU Trade Commissioner and starts the way he intends to continue.

It's not going to make the job any easier to be giving his opinion in public like this. His words will now be twisted to suit the purpose of the ERG/DUP. The suggestion needs to come from the UK and this risks spooking those who might be slowly coming around to the idea.

Leroy42 · 10-09-2019 01:26PM

Panrich wrote: »

It's not going to make the job any easier to be giving his opinion in public like this. His words will now be twisted to suit the purpose of the ERG/DUP. The suggestion needs to come from the UK and this risks spooking those who might be slowly coming around to the idea.

Yeah and if he stays silent it will be classed as the EU not taking Brexit seriously, or ignoring the will of the people or,or or.....

UK is charting a path to go into the world on its own, separate from the combined power that is the EU.

Yet they seem to get awfully worked up should someone say or not say, anything that doesn't agree with their position.

bilston · 10-09-2019 01:27PM

Water John wrote: »

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

Johnson looks like he has aged 10 years in less than 2 months.

J Mysterio · 10-09-2019 01:28PM

Water John wrote: »

They also know Cummings has no issue with a Crash Out Brexit and is the person calling the shots.

I'd say his days are numbered. Seems to me his plan for Oct 31st has failed. He is despised. Better for Johnson to fire him.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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