Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

A Dub in Glasgo · 09-09-2019 12:22PM

ZE700 (RAF BAe 146) took off from Baldonnel about 10 minutes ago, presume that is Johnson heading back to London

briany · 09-09-2019 12:25PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I hope this can be done in the near term as it stops the damage to Ireland and the EU, but...

The ERG wing of the Tory Party + Brexit Party supporters will scream betrayal and treachery, and will never accept a Remain victory, and will be a permanent presence in Westminster, waiting for a chance to seize the wheel and steer the UK bus back towards the cliff.

And if Scotland ends up leaving, the Westminster maths swings back their direction.

The ERG are seriously gambling with the future of the Conservative party. If they've miscalculated on the level of public support for their views then the party is going to split and they'll never have the parliamentary arithmetic to do a speck of what they want.

Water John · 09-09-2019 12:27PM

Some of the ERG have been outliers all their political life. That is what they are used to, they are not used to having influence. They will retreat to that obscure corner quite easily.

99problems1 · 09-09-2019 12:28PM

Just brexit it ffs.

A neverending extension is good for no one. Would do insane damage despite having no answer.

Just cut the cord and be done with it and if there is damage we can focus on recovering.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 12:30PM

briany wrote: »

The ERG are seriously gambling with the future of the Conservative party. If they've miscalculated on the level of public support for their views then the party is going to split and they'll never have the parliamentary arithmetic to do a speck of what they want.

The ERG don't really care - there will be enough Little Englanders in the heartlands to keep them all on the backbenches for life, and they are natural backbenchers. Doing actual stuff means compromising and facing reality.

briany · 09-09-2019 12:34PM

Water John wrote: »

It now seems that No 10, despite all those saying they'd romp in on an election, feel they would not get a majority. They know they have to capture 35 seats they never won before.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1171017492065636352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1171017492065636352&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fsep%2F09%2Fbrexit-latest-news-eu-no-deal-bill-royal-assent-boris-johnson-parliament-politics-live

That is what may be tempering Johnson. He now knows he won't win a GE.

Oof. Johnson has to be seriously considering that the only way forward is to dig the heels in. I wonder how much he's coming around to the idea that prosecution or prison is worth it? He's already hated by one half of the country, so why not forget about them and embrace the other half even more by making himself the 'Nelson Mandela' of Brexit and doing time for his beliefs?

The other option is maybe personally insulting Macron and his nation in the hope that it would make France double down on their threats to veto yet another extension.

On the domestic front, a seat count of 300 makes them the largest party, but so toxic that nobody outside of the DUP will do a deal with them, and that wouldn't be enough for a majority. So, again, actually legislating for a no-deal Brexit becomes virtually impossible, and it can only be brought about by the EU cutting them loose.

Water John · 09-09-2019 12:37PM

The rabble given voice by the likes of Farage, Johnson Cummings et al, have to be taught that they do not speak for the people. That is why I would collaborate in any way possible with those in the UK who don't want a Crash Out Brexit.

josip · 09-09-2019 12:39PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Id expect it to happen during formal diplomatic occasions between 2 countries leaders which this most definitely is, his refusal to use the title is trying to pretend they are friendly and any discussions will thus be far less acrimonious than they actually will be in reality. Also i think part of it is due to the ingrained conservative refusal to accept Ireland as an equal.

Perhaps we see it that way when we want to confirm our bias.
He addresses all PMs by their first name.
Whether you like it or not, he's consistent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxVKDeM5LJ8

lawred2 wrote: »

well that's a false equivalence

My TD is also a Minister.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 12:39PM

99problems1 wrote: »

A neverending extension is good for no one.

It is OK for Ireland - no change at the border or our trading relationships, but continuing uncertainty in the UK lets us hoover up some FDI that might otherwise head for the UK. The permanent weakness of Sterling makes exporting to the UK a challenge, but it beats the collapse that would follow No Deal.

Obviously, the UK deciding to Remain would be better for us, but a neverending extension is better than any Brexit that is likely to happen (Norway+backstop+CTA would be OK for us too, but is unlikely to happen since Remaining is clearly better for the UK).

Akrasia · 09-09-2019 12:44PM

I'll never understand how the Tories allowed this 'party within a party' to exist in the first place. It's clear that they have greater loyalty to their own cabal than they do to either the Tories or the UK, and the fact that they don't even publish their list of members makes it ridiculously undemocratic if candidates are standing for a party but not declaring that they are under the whip of a different group that they do not admit to being a member of.

Imreoir2 · 09-09-2019 12:50PM

99problems1 wrote: »

Just brexit it ffs.

A neverending extension is good for no one. Would do insane damage despite having no answer.

Just cut the cord and be done with it and if there is damage we can focus on recovering.

I disagree, the longer this goes on the more and more obvious it becomes that there is no such thing as a good brexit. The UKs political system is in crisis and a state of major flux. It could go a number of direction from here, several of them much better than a no-deal outcome.

There is nothing to be gained from giving the extremeists what they want when they are barely hanging on and in severe danger of being tossed out. A three or six month extension would do little enough damage to the EU and would allow time for the political crisis in the UK to mature and with luck resolve itself with more moderate voices reasserting control over the political process. If the extremeists come out on top, and press ahead for a no-deal then we simply get in three months time what we would have had now. Nothing of significance is lost to the EU by delay.

Wait and see is often the best policy, jump when you are not forced to and you might find yourself wondering why you jumped as you nurse your broken legs.

Infini · 09-09-2019 12:51PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I know a civil servant in DoIT. He has been sanguine bordering on cheerful about a no deal Brexit but he's spent the last week picking my brain about moving to Ireland and is applying for jobs there. He adamantly refuses to live in the UK under a Johnson government and I do not blame him. If Johnson wins and implements no deal, this country's standing and economy along with the quality of life of many of its citizens and residents will be irrevocably damaged. I

This is something that might happen but because of a crashout we could potentially see a British Brain Drain of skilled and well educated people to Ireland expecially with the common travel area. If they were resident here long enough they'd qualify for Irish citizenship and be able to regain their EU benefits that way. Would be quite ironic too as half a century back we'd lose people to emmigration and because of Brexit now we'd end up as a life raft in a sense for those in the UK who weren't stupid and didnt fall for the lies only to get screwed over by Boris and friends.

LeinsterDub · 09-09-2019 12:51PM

Akrasia wrote: »

I'll never understand how the Tories allowed this 'party within a party' to exist in the first place. It's clear that they have greater loyalty to their own cabal than they do to either the Tories or the UK, and the fact that they don't even publish their list of members makes it ridiculously undemocratic if candidates are standing for a party but not declaring that they are under the whip of a different group that they do not admit to being a member of.

First past the post requires it. You see the same in Labour and the major parties in America

Umaro · 09-09-2019 12:56PM

Here is an interesting article from The Guardian this morning outlining 6 ways that Johnson could sabotage the extension letter he has to send. Here's one example:

Send a second letter to the EU
This is being considered as an option and has been briefed to papers: when Johnson is obliged to formally seek a Brexit extension, he attaches a second letter saying, in effect: “Ignore the request – we don’t want it.” This would seem unlikely to go down well with EU leaders, and would be seen to go completely against the spirit of the law. As the former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said on Monday: “You’ve got to realise that the courts are not very fond of loopholes.”

It's crazy that we're in a situation where its entirely plausible that he'll send the first letter, and then follow up with a second letter saying to ignore the first one. Nothing seems to be off the table here when it comes to this Tory government trying to wriggle their way out of duties.

Leroy42 · 09-09-2019 12:58PM

I was against the last extension, and would be of the mind of many posters that another one is simply wasting time and will achieve nothing.

However, when you look at it the current extension certainly has had an effect. TM is gone, replaced by Johnson. HoC have taken control from the PM to assert, once again, that No Deal is not an option.

I think that the mood is changing in the UK. It is hard to tell given the talking heads seem to shout loudest about No Deal but I think more and more people are realising that Johnson, for example, has nothing to offer. Far from being the shining light to help navigate the UK through difficult times, he is nothing more than a few wise cracks and is without any plan.

So what next, another Tory leader, another split parliament? I think it is at least worth it to give an extension to allow a GE to see what way the voters go. If they vote Tory then No Deal it is, the extension just delayed it. If Labour et all win then we could potentially see a reboot based on the removal of some red lines and a return to a least diplomatic normality.

Most can see, except those Hard Brexiteers who won't be happy even with a Hard Brexit as their vision for the UK wil never be realised, that Johnson is going for No Deal not because he thinks it is better for the UK, but because it is the only solution to save himself. The question is, how many see that and how many simply are stuck in the 'Rule Britania, Trump will save us, We can sell out steel to China' brigade

99problems1 · 09-09-2019 12:58PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It is OK for Ireland - no change at the border or our trading relationships, but continuing uncertainty in the UK lets us hoover up some FDI that might otherwise head for the UK. The permanent weakness of Sterling makes exporting to the UK a challenge, but it beats the collapse that would follow No Deal.

Obviously, the UK deciding to Remain would be better for us, but a neverending extension is better than any Brexit that is likely to happen (Norway+backstop+CTA would be OK for us too, but is unlikely to happen since Remaining is clearly better for the UK).

Tell that to farmers or small businesses here.

99problems1 · 09-09-2019 01:00PM

Why does it matter if Johnson has to ask for an extension anyways?

Why would the EU give them one? They already said they wouldn't extend without something major like an election so labours no no deal law is pointless.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 01:04PM

Umaro wrote: »

Here is an interesting article from The Guardian this morning outlining 6 ways that Johnson could sabotage the extension letter he has to send.

All 6 are nonsense if the idea is to get to October 31st and No Deal.

The best Johnson could hope for form any of them would be Parliament unseating him, installing a caretaker to ask for the extension, and Johnson getting to run as the man who tried to Brexit and went down fighting.

But it is quite likely that the Tories would boot him as leader when he is kicked out of #10, and some of these options would see him in court and possibly jail for lawbreaking, too.

trellheim · 09-09-2019 01:05PM

Under the CTA, UK nationals are able to settle, live and work in Ireland already ; this predates the EU and will not go away under Brexit.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 01:08PM

99problems1 wrote: »

Tell that to farmers or small businesses here.

Which bit exactly?

If you think exporting to the UK is hard now, wait until No Deal when Sterling drops to 1-1 parity with the Euro, before the UK starts with tariffs.

Obviously an extension is better than that.

Leroy42 · 09-09-2019 01:08PM

I have just watched the press conference with Leo and Johnson and Johnson was terrible compared to Leo. He had nothing, Leo came across as prepared, on message and understanding the position we find ourselves in.

Outside appearances only count for so much of course, but that was quite a slap down today from Leo.

At least from a PR perspective, obviously I don't know what happened in the meetings, it is yet another poor display by Johnson. If the UK do leave the EU, when, the Johnson will be expected to bestride the world stage to cement the UK new position at the head of the table alongside US EU and China. He press conferences in Germany, France and now Ireland would not give much confidence in his ability to do that job.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 01:10PM

99problems1 wrote: »

Why would the EU give them one? They already said they wouldn't extend without something major like an election so labours no no deal law is pointless.

There is obviously going to be an election very soon, since the Government has a majority of minus 40, and both Johnson and Corbyn have said they want one.

Infini · 09-09-2019 01:14PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what next, another Tory leader, another split parliament? I think it is at least worth it to give an extension to allow a GE to see what way the voters go. If they vote Tory then No Deal it is, the extension just delayed it. If Labour et all win then we could potentially see a reboot based on the removal of some red lines and a return to a least diplomatic normality.

It's also likely that instead of an election a national unity goverment minus the EuroTrollGroup and PseudoTories ends up being formed out of sheer necessity due to limited time with Ken Clarke as Caretaker PM who either look for another extention if theres enough time OR they use the nuclear option of A50 withdrawal out of simply not having any more time to hit the brakes on this fiasco before instigating a real investigation into these toxic wasters and parasites that have poisoned the well with their Bolloxology.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 01:15PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

At least from a PR perspective, obviously I don't know what happened in the meetings

Nothing happened, of course. Brexit is a matter for the EU27, not for Bilateral talks with Ireland. Varadkar will have reiterated what he said in his public speech - no backstop, no deal. Boris will have wittered and said nothing.

99problems1 · 09-09-2019 01:16PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is obviously going to be an election very soon, since the Government has a majority of minus 40, and both Johnson and Corbyn have said they want one.

But Labour won't agree to an election until Boris gets an extension, which he won't get from the EU.

54and56 · 09-09-2019 01:17PM

interlocked wrote: »

Faisal Islam, Peter Foster and Tony Connelly(obviously) are going to come out of the Brexit debacle with hugely enhanced reputations. They're just islands of intelligence in a sea of stupidity.

I always enjoyed Faisal Islams contributions on Sky but since becoming BBC Economics Editor he seems to have moved out of the front line a lot and isn't used as the flagship Newsnight Economics Editor as that is given to Ben Chu.

Tony Connelly is required reading for anyone looking for an Irish slant on what's going on Brexit wise. He is massively insightful and clearly very well connected.

Peter Foster is relatively new on my radar but over the last few weeks I've been reading some of his output, which as Europe Editor of The Telegraph, I was expecting to be partisan flag waving bluster but he seems to have a super ability to strip away the noise and really focus on the practical realities.

He absolutely rips the BoJo/ERG nonsense apart in last weeks Choppers Brexit Podcast which is without doubt the best 30 minutes of Brexit podcast I've ever listened to.

I recommend everyone take the time to enjoy this.

Dyr · 09-09-2019 01:17PM

trellheim wrote: »

Under the CTA, UK nationals are able to settle, live and work in Ireland already ; this predates the EU and will not go away under Brexit.

Which is why we should have avoided importing the world and its brother over the last three years, Dublin is already over capacity and we won't be able to take on a surge of people under the CTA

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 01:19PM

99problems1 wrote: »

But Labour won't agree to an election until Boris gets an extension, which he won't get from the EU.

Yes, he will, because you, I and everyone in the EU knows an election is coming, only held back by Parliament while they wait for No Deal Oct 31 to be cancelled.

If Boris asks, he will get the extension. If he refuses to ask, he will be replaced and the next PM will get it while Boris goes in front of a judge to explain breaking the law.

VinLieger · 09-09-2019 01:23PM

99problems1 wrote: »

But Labour won't agree to an election until Boris gets an extension, which he won't get from the EU.

Things have changed since they last said major change is required for another extension, the most recent line i believe was we will give an extension if they request it although it might be for longer than 3 months and have conditions attached

BluePlanet · 09-09-2019 01:23PM

If they ever do manage to Brexit I am hoping those Russian troll farms immediately flip the script and start advocating for Britain to join the EU and manufacture a campaign for a Join referendum.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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