Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

GM228 · 09-09-2019 07:11AM

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/09/kpmg-predicts-no-deal-brexit-recession-in-2020?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

Some grim forecasts from KPMG in the event of no deal.

Britain will plunge into its first recession in a decade should the government quit the European Union without a deal, according to the latest in a string of gloomy forecasts about the UK’s fortunes outside the EU’s free trade area.

Economists at the accountancy firm KPMG said that the knock-on effects to Britain’s trade and business confidence of a no-deal Brexit would lead to the economy shrinking by 1.5% next year.

The KPMG report is here:-

https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2019/09/britain-at-a-crossroads.pdf

A deal by 31 October will see some renewed momentum in the economy, helped by the continuation of existing trade links, while a no-deal will see the UK falling into a year-long recession in late 2019, according to our latest forecasts.

Our forecast under a no-deal scenario

If the UK were to leave the EU without a deal on 31 October the short term impact on the economy is likely to be significant, triggering a recession outright. An exit without any alternative arrangements for trade will see a substantial fall in exports. While imports will also suffer, they are unlikely to be replaced by domestic production at least in the short term, with the net impact from trade weighing heavily on the UK economy.

An instant further depreciation of the pound, by perhaps as much as 10%, will not serve to alleviate exporters’ woes in the short term, as the key stumbling blocks to trade are likely to centre on delays at the border, confusion over required permits and the regulations to be followed. Delays would negatively impact production for the UK market as well as exporters. The most damaging impacts could come from potential shortages of imported foodstuffs as well as medicines in the immediate term, negatively impacting households’ sentiment.

A no-deal scenario largely represents a leap into the unknown for the UK economy, but is likely to trigger a relatively shallow recession outright.

A weaker pound will increase the cost of imports, which will gradually feed into higher inflation in coming years. However, just as before, we would expect the Bank of England to see through the temporary increase in inflation and seek to support the economy in the short run by lowering the base interest rate. Following an initial assessment of the early economic data, we would expect the Monetary Policy Committee to cut the base interest rate to 0.25% in the November meeting, and to follow through with a further cut to 0.1% in the December meeting or early in 2020.

Our modelling suggests this outcome could lead to further falls in the price of houses throughout the UK, with prices falling by an average of just over 6% in 2020. However, a deeper house price crash of 20% is possible, if the market responds in a similar fashion to previous shocks

20silkcut · 09-09-2019 07:55AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I'd be surprised if Johnson says anything explicit about an NI-only backstop on Monday as to do so would see a fierce backlash from the DUP and Brexit Party. It's more likely that he'll downplay it for the time being since he's in election mode, but I'm curious how he moves away from that suggestion.

From the DUP's point of view, they would prefer him to shoot down the notion head on. If he sidesteps it, that will surely have them worried.

The statements from our government will be fascinating too. I feel the less said, the better the outlook. If Johnson does indicate that he's moving in the direction of an NI-only backstop, our government is hardly going to broadcast that to the world. If we get something along the lines of, "We had a constructive conversation. We're still some way off one another but it was a positive engagement" etc. that's probably a good sign I would think, even though on the face of it that might not seem to be the case. On the other hand if we hear a quite lengthy statement on how far apart the two sides are, then that perhaps suggests Johnson isn't actually moving towards adopting a position as has been hinted. There's no reason for our side to be diplomatic if they are still stonewalling.

My impression is if Johnson outright pours cold water on the idea, there's no hope of progress; if he pours lukewarm water on it, brace yourself, Arlene.

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

Dyr · 09-09-2019 07:57AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The gang planks are being laid over the border for the invaders according to Jim Allister

https://twitter.com/JimAllister/status/1170795492629987330

Problem for people like Jim is that whipping up fear and hysteria in their own communities won't work now like it did in the 1960's. People are somewhat more enlightened.

The same enlightened people that vote for Jim Wells and his pals?

murphaph · 09-09-2019 08:00AM

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to lash out. They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

They would (if this is what happens) relabel the backstop "all-island something or other" which will be the backstop except implemented immediately (well before the end of the transition phase) to save some blushes. People are largely too dim to realise that this is the NI only backstop, fast forwarded and in GB nobody will care (except some Scots).

FrancieBrady · 09-09-2019 08:07AM

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

They have been 'shafted' in their own eyes. Review what was said after the Anglo Irish Agreement which was the effective end of their veto.

Their problem now would be the same as then...who to lash out at?

And Unionism's own predominately moderate and pragmatic base usually works against their Never Never Never belligerents and they calm down and get on with it.

20silkcut · 09-09-2019 08:09AM

murphaph wrote: »

They would (if this is what happens) relabel the backstop "all-island something or other" which will be the backstop except implemented immediately (well before the end of the transition phase) to save some blushes. People are largely too dim to realise that this is the NI only backstop, fast forwarded and in GB nobody will care (except some Scots).

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was mischievously resurrected to have a cut at us.

KildareP · 09-09-2019 08:13AM

20silkcut wrote: »

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was resurrected to have a cut at us.

I'd wonder whether it was a genuine cut at us, or whether he used it in complete ignorance of the context in which the quote was originally used by Paisley. He's not exactly known for fact-checking!

ancapailldorcha · 09-09-2019 08:20AM

Mod: Please do not just paste tweets here.

VinLieger · 09-09-2019 08:31AM

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

Isnt there a sizeable portion of unionists who support the backstop over no deal though? Or is it only the ones associated with business groups who understand the reality of the situation?

circadian · 09-09-2019 08:32AM

Well, as expected the NI economy is hit first. It is either in recession or the brink of recession according to Ulster Bank.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49609767

I can't see how the DUP will survive if the recession starts to hit working class protestant areas. They've already alienated small business and farming groups (with Sammy Wilson telling them their fears over a hard border are wrong) and once the working class voters are hit I'm not sure how they'll spin it or fend off the likes of Alliance and PUP.

Russman · 09-09-2019 08:47AM

circadian wrote: »

I can't see how the DUP will survive if the recession starts to hit working class protestant areas. They've already alienated small business and farming groups (with Sammy Wilson telling them their fears over a hard border are wrong) and once the working class voters are hit I'm not sure how they'll spin it or fend off the likes of Alliance and PUP.

You could be right, but I'm not so sure tbh. When push comes to shove I'd imagine DUP voters will stay DUP voters no matter what. I think their hard core would rather be British and poor, than even 1% Irish and relatively prosperous (in the event of a NI specific arrangement).

It will be spun as our fault down here or the nasty EU's fault anyway, and they'll lap it up and might even see the DUP as their only "defenders".

J Mysterio · 09-09-2019 08:47AM

No need for negotiators when its all in Dom qnd Boris' heads.

https://twitter.com/timjn1/status/1170945757911953409

Full steam ahead!

lawred2 · 09-09-2019 08:48AM

circadian wrote: »

Well, as expected the NI economy is hit first. It is either in recession or the brink of recession according to Ulster Bank.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49609767

I can't see how the DUP will survive if the recession starts to hit working class protestant areas. They've already alienated small business and farming groups (with Sammy Wilson telling them their fears over a hard border are wrong) and once the working class voters are hit I'm not sure how they'll spin it or fend off the likes of Alliance and PUP.

cert error? - someone's dropped the ball there

Peregrinus · 09-09-2019 08:50AM

Russman wrote: »

You could be right, but I'm not so sure tbh. When push comes to shove I'd imagine DUP voters will stay DUP voters no matter what. I think their hard core would rather be British and poor, than even 1% Irish and relatively prosperous (in the event of a NI specific arrangement).

DUP voters will stay unionist, but it's not a given that they will stay DUP. The DUP did, after all, in its time displace a previously dominant unionist party.

I'm not saying that the DUP will be easily displaced as the dominant unionist party, but their strategic and tactical errors on Brexit certainly create an opportunity.

FrancieBrady · 09-09-2019 08:54AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Isnt there a sizeable portion of unionists who support the backstop over no deal though? Or is it only the ones associated with business groups who understand the reality of the situation?

The UUP just don't seem to have a clue about how to capitalise. Their 'Irish Solution For an Irish Problem' paper/proposal last week seems to have sunk like a lead balloon.
The DUP will suffer at the polls, but not by a whole pile by the looks of it so far. And you might just see their vote initially rise in the immediate aftermath of a sell out, if that is what happens. It might take a while for the blame game to start.

Peregrinus · 09-09-2019 08:58AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The UUP just don't seem to have a clue about how to capitalise. Their 'Irish Solution For an Irish Problem' paper/proposal last week seems to have sunk like a lead balloon.
The DUP will suffer at the polls, but not by a whole pile by the looks of it so far. And you might just see their vote initially rise in the immediate aftermath of a sell out, if that is what happens. It might take a while for the blame game to start.

Well, it did take a while for the DUP to supplant the OUP; it was a process rather than an event. So I wouldn't expect the DUP to collapse in the way that UKIP collapsed. But there's definitely a vulnerability that wasn't there before.

prawnsambo · 09-09-2019 08:58AM

20silkcut wrote: »

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was mischievously resurrected to have a cut at us.

I would have thought it was aimed at Unionists, by invoking Paisley. Softening them up for a NI only backstop perhaps.

Leroy42 · 09-09-2019 08:59AM

As alluded to up thread, a major issue with going with a NI backstop is that the SNP will immediately be requesting the same.

Of course the circumstances are totally different and EU aren't offering it, but SNP will be demanding a fresh independence vote.

This was a major reason for TM asking for a UK wide backstop. She understood the need for the backstop in terms of the Irish border but also saw the very real prospect of Scotland pushing to leave.

None of that has changed. As with everything Brexit, every possible option carries with it massive problems.

prawnsambo · 09-09-2019 09:01AM

interlocked wrote: »

No,l wouldn't, much as I like his attitude, he hasn't got the inside track that the other lads have.

His analysis is spot on though. He doesn't get all excited about some fresh idiocy from No. 10 or the Tories like Faisal Islam is wont to do occasionally.

FrancieBrady · 09-09-2019 09:03AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, it did take a while for the DUP to supplant the OUP; it was a process rather than an event. So I wouldn't expect the DUP to collapse in the way that UKIP collapsed. But there's definitely a vulnerability that wasn't there before.

Agreed, but it is only vulnerable to the UUP really, which seems particularly inept at the moment.
I think the Alliance will have a ceiling now for Unionists and will be viewed with suspicion by a lot of them.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 09:30AM

GM228 wrote: »

Some grim forecasts from KPMG in the event of no deal.

I was going to say that a 10% drop in Sterling was a rather optimistic view, but on rereading I see that they are talking about the instant drop on Brexit day.

So a drop to parity with the Euro overnight, meaning a drop to $1.10, sounds right.

BonnieSituation · 09-09-2019 09:30AM

Boris' motorcade just blasted past me on the Con Colbert Road in Islandbridge there. Did he come in via Baldonnel?

BonnieSituation · 09-09-2019 09:34AM

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

Zero chance of organised violence a la The Troubles.

You'll find pockets of trouble, but if the fleg protests were anything to go by, loyalism doesn't have the stomach.

Most unionists support the backstop. So it would be odd to consider this a capitulation or shafting.

lawred2 · 09-09-2019 09:36AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I was going to say that a 10% drop in Sterling was a rather optimistic view, but on rereading I see that they are talking about the instant drop on Brexit day.

So a drop to parity with the Euro overnight, meaning a drop to €1.10, sounds right.

"mmmmmm I love the smell of devalued assets in the morning" said the dollar/euro heavy vulture

BonnieSituation · 09-09-2019 09:36AM

20silkcut wrote: »

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was mischievously resurrected to have a cut at us.

It really wasn't. I can't believe any sane person with the remotest idea of politics on this island would construe that as offensive.

Paisley knew what side his bread was buttered when it came to agriculture.

DOCARCH · 09-09-2019 09:39AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Did he come in via Baldonnel?

I think so? I am under flight path to Baldonnel (in Dublin 16) and heard a jet aircraft on approach around 8.20. Could not see anything with cloud/drizzle.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-09-2019 09:41AM

What the hell?

They cancelled the addresses for the press? (Johnson Varadkar meeting)

They had the mics out and all.

Zubeneschamali · 09-09-2019 09:44AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What the hell?

They cancelled the addresses for the press?

Boris has been dying on his feet every time he sees a microphone for the past week, I can't see him enjoying q's from the Irish press.

And since he doesn't give a monkeys about protocol...

DOCARCH · 09-09-2019 09:44AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What the hell?

They cancelled the addresses for the press? (Johnson Varadkar meeting)

They had the mics out and all.

?

Speaking now....well at least Leo is speaking.

ath262 · 09-09-2019 09:45AM

moved the podiums due to the rain.. statements by both now, taking a few questions after

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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