Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

MikeSoys · 05-09-2019 07:33PM

so maybe idiot Q here but lords look likely to approve proposal to BLOCK a no deal; queen will rubber stamp it
....will that actually mean no-deal cannot happen? or is there some way it still can?

20silkcut · 05-09-2019 07:34PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

They didn't win 45% of the vote in the European elections, which aren't in any case an indication of how people would vote in a referendum.

Especially since European elections have never been taken very seriously in the UK, even less so when people were voting in the expectation that the UK would be leaving the EU in a matter of months.

If there was a referendum tomorrow with a choice between two leave options (i.e. Remain was not on the ballot), I have no doubt at all that a 'soft Brexit', with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market (with NI alone remaining in a customs union with the EU), would beat No Deal Brexit hands down.

We are not getting a referendum though.
Remainers are highly concentrated in London and other big urban centres but are much more diffuse across more rural constituencies. The Tory’s have a huge geographical spread across massive swathes of England. Unless there is a pact amongst remain party’s in a general election the Tory’s could return with a majority or something similar to what we have at the moment with the DUP still significant players. That would be a disaster.

A Shropshire Lad · 05-09-2019 07:34PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

The entire civil service is unelected, as are our judges, as is the governor of the bank of England.

They all have much more sway over our country than the house of lords.

Civil servents and judges dont vote on legislation

Igotadose · 05-09-2019 07:35PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He started the week loudly claiming he did not want an election.

The only reason he wants one now is that he has lost control of parliament, his majority, 20+ Mps and his first 3 votes as PM, the first PM in history to do so.

His very last hope to stay in #10 and avoid being the worst PM ever is to win a majority in an election, so now he needs one.

And Corbyn will let him have one after his "Do or die" deadline of 31 Oct has passed and No Deal is deferred to 2020.

And, it'll be the month of November with electioneering. So, 2019 will go down as a year when the British Government basically did nothing. Impressive. Then the election's over in December, just in time for holidays by Parliament or whatever.

Pretty sad. No wonder the UK citizens are so p*ssed. Government takes years, gets nothing done. Kind of what led to the Russians feeding the flames of Brexit with willing slime-lackeys like Farage, Cumming and Banks to translate the rubles to paralyzing the UK government.

cryptocurrency · 05-09-2019 07:36PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He started the week loudly claiming he did not want an election.

The only reason he wants one now is that he has lost control of parliament, his majority, 20+ Mps and his first 3 votes as PM, the first PM in history to do so.

His very last hope to stay in #10 and avoid being the worst PM ever is to win a majority in an election, so now he needs one.

And Corbyn will let him have one after his "Do or die" deadline of 31 Oct has passed and No Deal is deferred to 2020.

47 is right, the purge of the remainers is all part of a bigger tactic now as was the in the ditch statement. Parliament vs the people now going into overdrive. "drain the swamp" now being used in the UK political sphere today on the media too.

Interesting times.

Roger_007 · 05-09-2019 07:37PM

Bambi wrote: »

What I heard around the time of the last extension, was the French and others were not agreeing to another extension under any circumstances and actually now want the UK out of the EU.

It is almost comical, (if it wasn't so serious), the way that the UK is 'threatening' the EU with a no-deal exit if they don't get a satisfactory deal. Boris reckons that this is his trump card.
What they don't seem to understand is that the EU have a much stronger trump card. They are under no obligation to offer the U.K. any deal at all.
At this stage I reckon that if it wasn't for the Ireland problem, the EU would have long since told the UK to just bugger off and I think we are not far from the point where that may happen anyway.
As for the possibility that REMAIN might be an option, does anyone on any side seriously think that the UK could just carry on being members of the EU as if the past three years didn't happen. The well of good will has been poisoned irrevocably. REMAIN is not an option any more. The UK should count themselves lucky that there is any deal at all still on offer.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 07:39PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd be very loathe to predict any outcome at this stage. There's one thing for sure though, Johnson is a polarising figure. A lot more than I thought he would be, and he's not exactly covering himself in glory at the moment.

That really depends which way you look at him. He is a hero to the leavers. He has masterfully taken control of the Brexit parties position to protect his own voter base and has now got the strong backing of half the country who see him as a strong leader.

Everyone else views him as a fool. He is neither. He knows exactly what he is doing and he is do or die foolish with it. A very dangerous game is being played here but he had no choice with the Brexit party fielding candidates and breathing down his neck he had to take this position.

The remain vote is split across all parties. The leave vote is right behind Boris now. He is gambling on restoring the majority May lost and if he gets his election he will likely manage it. If he gets in bed with Farrage (who looks to have no choice if offered) to pick up the Northern Labour strongholds that voted leave he will dominate the commons and repeal the no deal block. I think he is willing to take the extension but will show he has been 'forced' to do so and use this to further consolidate his base. The purge shows he is not messing. Getting rid of serious players like Ken Clarke really drove the dagger home.

He now has Orpington to drop any unelectable into without worry and got rid of a cabinet remainer too. His brothers parting words like water off a ducks back. The prorogue appears to just be a signal of intent. I see us with a strong leave majority in the house in January threatening no deal as before and waiting for the EU to blink, what he expects to gain from it I have no idea but I believe that's his aim and that this power play will work.

20silkcut · 05-09-2019 07:41PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

It is almost comical, (if it wasn't so serious), the way that the UK is 'threatening' the EU with a no-deal exit if they don't get a satisfactory deal. Boris reckons that this is his trump card.
What they don't seem to understand is that the EU have a much stronger trump card. They are under no obligation to offer the U.K. any deal at all.
At this stage I reckon that if it wasn't for the Ireland problem, the EU would have long since told the UK to just bugger off and I think we are not far from the point where that may happen anyway.
As for the possibility that REMAIN might be an option, does anyone on any side seriously think that the UK could just carry on being members of the EU as if the past three years didn't happen. The well of good will has been poisoned irrevocably. REMAIN is not an option any more. The UK should count themselves lucky that there is any deal at all still on offer.

It can all be forgotten if the electorate swings strongly to remain. But will that happen??

cryptocurrency · 05-09-2019 07:43PM

20silkcut wrote: »

It can all be forgotten if the electorate swings strongly to remain.

what hope is that really? Spend some time in the UK outside of London and you will know they have no hope

um7y1h83ge06nx · 05-09-2019 07:46PM

It's getting all very suicidal in many ways. The British PM would rather be dead than look for an extension and this constant use of no deal against the EU is metaphorical Britain putting a gun to its head and threatening to pull the trigger if they don't get their way.

So much bitterness then among themselves, it's going to take a lot of time to mend this mess.

martingriff · 05-09-2019 07:46PM

MikeSoys wrote: »

so maybe idiot Q here but lords look likely to approve proposal to BLOCK a no deal; queen will rubber stamp it
....will that actually mean no-deal cannot happen? or is there some way it still can?

to paraphrase Anne Robinson on the weakest link the EU could say you are having no more extensions GOODBYE

First Up · 05-09-2019 07:48PM

Forty Seven wrote:

That really depends which way you look at him. He is a hero to the leavers. He has masterfully taken control of the Brexit parties position to protect his own voter base and has now got the strong backing of half the country who see him as a strong leader.

Meanwhile UK companies are been cut out of the European supply chains where they get almost half their business and mobile capital and technology from the US and Asia is revising its investment plans.

A masterful hero and strong leader for sure.

20silkcut · 05-09-2019 07:48PM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

what hope is that really? Spend some time in the UK outside of London and you will know they have no hope

Elections regularly produce big surprises that’s why we have them.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 07:51PM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Civil servents and judges dont vote on legislation

If you look at the recent papers released by the courts regarding the prorogation you will notice that it was a recommendation. Probably from a civil servant, they influence policy much more than the lords. It is not easy for the lords to reject government policy. The best they can do is to delay or amend. Civil servants influence both the creation of policy and the implementation of policy from the very top to the end user.

Judges can overturn or block government policy under Judicial Review. This is very common.

martingriff · 05-09-2019 07:52PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He started the week loudly claiming he did not want an election.

The only reason he wants one now is that he has lost control of parliament, his majority, 20+ Mps and his first 3 votes as PM, the first PM in history to do so.

His very last hope to stay in #10 and avoid being the worst PM ever is to win a majority in an election, so now he needs one.

And Corbyn will let him have one after his "Do or die" deadline of 31 Oct has passed and No Deal is deferred to 2020.

He as always wanted an election as he knew his party would not vote to no deal. So what he does is drop he will go to Queen to purlong the parliament know that there will be some way by his opponents to stop it. He knows he will fail so he then says he will go for an election. Why else was himself and Rees Mog so flippant. He probably did not think so many would deflect.

This is why Corbyn does not want to vote for it straight away until the bill is in law (which has an amendment apparently in it that says they have to go by the next deadline. Which the government made happen by not having there teller on the No lobby

Sam Russell · 05-09-2019 07:54PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

If you look at the recent papers released by the courts regarding the prorogation you will notice that it was a recommendation. Probably from a civil servant, they influence policy much more than the lords. It is not easy for the lords to reject government policy. The best they can do is to delay or amend. Civil servants influence both the creation of policy and the implementation of policy from the very top to the end user.

Judges can overturn or block government policy under Judicial Review. This is very common.

Was he called Dominic Cummins by any chance?

cryptocurrency · 05-09-2019 07:58PM

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

It's getting all very suicidal in many ways. The British PM would rather be dead than look for an extension and this constant use of no deal against the EU is metaphorical Britain putting a gun to its head and threatening to pull the trigger if they don't get their way.

So much bitterness then among themselves, it's going to take a lot of time to mend this mess.

it's all part of the parliament vs the people mantra. You do sense this is the calm before the storm of an election where the UK public vote for the complete opposite to the remain parliament in there now and set the UK on a head on course with the EU

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 07:59PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Was he called Dominic Cummins by any chance?

I would imagine it may be linked to him. Don't know for sure.

He is a great example of an unelected civil servant that has much more power and influence than the house of lords.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 08:01PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

That really depends which way you look at him. He is a hero to the leavers. He has masterfully taken control of the Brexit parties position to protect his own voter base and has now got the strong backing of half the country who see him as a strong leader.

But for every leave vote he gains, he loses a moderate. And they have to go somewhere. Those votes will probably go to the LibDems. Not sure that's a net gain for him at all, just stealing the BPs clothes while the LibDems steal his.

Forty Seven wrote: »

Everyone else views him as a fool. He is neither. He knows exactly what he is doing and he is do or die foolish with it. A very dangerous game is being played here but he had no choice with the Brexit party fielding candidates and breathing down his neck he had to take this position.

He thought he knew what he was doing. But it backfired spectacularly. He's lost control of the house, has no majority and has irrevocably split his party. Control is gone and now he's literally trying to goad Corbyn into rescuing him. He looks weak because he is. The tabloids are doing their best to spin it for him, but only the true believers are swallowing it. I agree it's a dangerous game, the country is at stake after all.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 08:01PM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

it's all part of the parliament vs the people mantra. You do sense this is the calm before the storm of an election where the UK public vote for the complete opposite to the remain parliament in there now and set the UK on a head on course with the EU

The one good thing that may come out of this is turnout numbers finally rising and the young taking the opportunity to vote. A small appeasement within the bunkered madness but it may breed a new type of political class for the future.

Zubeneschamali · 05-09-2019 08:07PM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

an election where the UK public vote for the complete opposite to the remain parliament in there now and set the UK on a head on course with the EU

Right now, my sympathies are with Remain and I hope they can succeed.

But if the English give Boris a majority, they will deserve what they get. Just as I cheer on any sports team taking on the English, I will enjoy the spectacle of their national humiliation for the next decade or two.

First Up · 05-09-2019 08:15PM

cryptocurrency wrote:

it's all part of the parliament vs the people mantra. You do sense this is the calm before the storm of an election where the UK public vote for the complete opposite to the remain parliament in there now and set the UK on a head on course with the EU

The UK political sideshow is of no interest to anyone else.

The UK public can vote for who and what they like. The EU will deal with whatever emerges.

Roger_007 · 05-09-2019 08:18PM

I do not really believe that Boris Johnson really gives a hoot whether the UK is in or out of the EU or whether they leave with or without a deal.
Boris has only one objective and that is to occupy No 10 as PM for as long as he can. He has unashamedly used the whole Brexit debacle as a convenient vehicle to get himself through the black door. He now needs an election to enable him to stay there, (he hopes).
Boris, like that other blonde across the pond, is simply an unprincipled opportunist with a gigantic ego. Brexit doesn't matter to him one way or the other, it's all about Project Boris.

BluePlanet · 05-09-2019 08:27PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

The remain vote is split across all parties. The leave vote is right behind Boris now.

They are not.
He has purged Leave Anti-No Deal people from his party and they are now among the opposition.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 08:29PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

They are not.
He has purged Leave Anti-No Deal people from his party and they are now among the opposition.

I'm talking about voters. Not parliamentarians.

Capt'n Midnight · 05-09-2019 08:30PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

Austerity ended yesterday. Nobody is talking about it. That was as big as it gets.

Please see my post Yesterday, 19:31 which you seem to have missed.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Chancellor Sajid Javid declares end of austerity

They've rediscovered the magic money tree. To be done with borrowing.

SKY did a review of the budget and it's nearly back to 2009 in real terms.

Of course its dependent on rules, so if there's a recession ....

AFAIK Manufacturing is in recession and service industry is barely growing.

And all moot if Sajid doesn't have a job.

Javid made promises he did not expect to have to deliver which is why the media didn't make a big deal of it either.

Christy42 · 05-09-2019 08:31PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

I'm talking about voters. Not parliamentarians.

Are there no leave with a deal voters? I mean many seem to want it over and done with and that is the closest way that can happen.

No deal pits it front and cent for the next decade at a minimum.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 08:37PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Please see my post Yesterday, 19:31 which you seem to have missed.

Javid made promises he did not expect to have to deliver which is why the media didn't make a big deal of it either.

I'm on permanent disability and was recently migrated onto the hated universal credit. I have nothing good to say about tory economic policy. I believe I was pointing out how policy was not going to factor in the next election and used the lack of coverage of the 'end of austerity' to make that point. This election will be a referendum in all but name.

Forty Seven · 05-09-2019 08:41PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Are there no leave with a deal voters? I mean many seem to want it over and done with and that is the closest way that can happen.

No deal pits it front and cent for the next decade at a minimum.

The deal is dead, the EU won't renegotiate. There is only no deal or stay now. It all comes down to if those 'leave with a deal' voters decide to switch to remain or no deal. That's the big question now.

Strazdas · 05-09-2019 08:52PM

Forty Seven wrote: »

The deal is dead, the EU won't renegotiate. There is only no deal or stay now. It all comes down to if those 'leave with a deal' voters decide to switch to remain or no deal. That's the big question now.

A border down the Irish Sea could solve the Brexiteers' problems ie. shaft the DUP / Unionists.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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