Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That's exactly what it means though. "Nice constitutional arrangements you've got in your sovereign nation there, member state. Now call an election or else."

No it''s not. Again, as I posted above, if you're going to be asking me for something, I have the right to set the preconditions on which I will grant your request.

Strazdas

ElectronVolt wrote: »

It's raw nationalism and tribal politics and it's been stirred, whipped and brought to the boil over the last few years and I really can't see any way back from that.

I would still predict any general election to produce a result that would be the complete opposite to what anyone with an ounce of sense or who was a pragmatist might like to see. You will end up with a load of hardline Tories and probably the rise of a significant number of Brexit Party MPs.

There's no unifying, calming, sane figure emerging from all of this to put the genie back into the bottle.

Indeed, it seems the only thing the UK electorate would be interested in a party's manifesto is their position on leaving the EU. This is insane stuff : go anywhere else throughout Europe and the very last thing anyone would be discussing is the EU and whether it is a good idea or not.

Gaslighting and media brainwashing springs to mind.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

That's exactly what it means though. "Nice constitutional arrangements you've got in your sovereign nation there, member state. Now call an election or else."

Nobody has said anything remotely like that, nor did they say anything that could be reasonably interpreted as implying that.

The EU is absolutely clear that the UK is leaving on October 31 and it is the UK's choice if that is based on the WA it agreed with the UK government or not.

If it is, fine; if not then goodbye and good luck. It is a delusional myth that the EU is plotting ways to overturn Brexit.

Unfortunately for the UK, this myth is preventing realistic discussion and decision making in Westminster. Even more unfortunately for the UK, it is not preventing the UK's customers and suppliers in the EU from planning for November 1st and beyond.

mcmoustache

InTheShadows wrote: »

Excellent speech from the PM today.

Do you have some criteria or yardstick by which you measure the quality of a speech or are you just on a windup?


I've heard decent speeches in my life and that one from today was below average in terms of content, delivery and presentation.


Humour me here. What to you look for in a good speech?

ElectronVolt

The UK can leave tomorrow morning if it wants and do so entirely unilaterally. What it cannot do is leave and keep all the benefits of membership without doing some kind of deal, which would involve the UK and EU coming to some kind of mutually agreed and mutually beneficial arrangement. It also needs to (for its own benefit) close the loose ends, and that includes coming up with a workable solution for the border in Ireland.

It's not being trapped by Ireland or the Irish Government. It's being trapped by its own refusal acknowledge that there are complicated circumstances in Northern Ireland and nobody can just pretend that those problems should just go away and expect that to somehow solve the issue. The fact that Johnson, Rees-Mogg or Foster dogmatically chose to ignore reality does not mean that reality goes away. That isn't how the real world works.

It's as if people cannot get this very simple message through their heads. Nobody's trying to keep the UK in. It's just holding a gun its own feet and threatening to pull the trigger if it doesn't get its way, having had a massive tantrum where it's name called and gone as far as even suggesting the EU should be dismantled.

The EU does not owe the UK a free lunch, nor should it (we) undermine ourselves to facilitate an ex-member. We are being reasonable and friendly. However, we do not need to turn ourselves inside out.

As significant as market disruption might be due to a hard Brexit, imagine if the EU were to say "oh that's fine! You just carry on as normal and sure forget about all those regulations that ensure fair play in our free market, sure just do whatever - set up a lovely little tax and regulatory haven".

That would destroy the economies of Ireland and other members of the EU by just allowing someone to come in and distort the entire single market and it's not going to be remotely acceptable to the other member states.

They're quite willing to come to a deal and a sane arrangement and have been nothing but open minded and hospitable to this whole thing, yet the false victimhood of the UK and lashing out seems to be the narrative.

How do you even begin to negotiate with something like that?! It's illogical, irrational and the negotiators on the UK side engaged in extremely bad faith (and continue to do so) and have basically spent the last number of years utterly messing everyone about. The EU side (or anyone look at this objectively) cannot really even understand what the UK is asking for as the whole thing is such an incoherent mess.

The only solution to this can come from the UK and a return to pragmatism. If it does not happen, unfortunately we are in for a very bumpy ride and the UK is in for a very harsh reality check. There is no way around that.

lawred2

I'd rather be dead in a ditch..

...

Pathetic.

Surely the time has come for a VONC.

jm08

Article in Financial Times (paywall) about attitudes to Brexit in Europe.

How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

In brief:

1. European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

2. European will continue to sound friendly and open to negotiations.
3. Would rather have no-deal Brexit than drop backstop. Fears of renewed conflict on Irish border makes it non-negotiable because peace is the EU's core mission.
4. European business is not lobbying against no deal. They don't want to have to compete with a deregulated UK.
5. They don't see huge economic damage - Ireland expects short term damage.
6. Southern Europeans couldn't give two tosses about it.


Brussels expect Britain to reopen talks within a week. Initially will allow Irish border to be porous, but will be checking continental ports (causing delays and shortages in the UK).

Tippex

lawred2 wrote: »

I'd rather be dead in a ditch..

...

Pathetic.

Surely the time has come for a VONC.

yep basically saying that he will ignore the vote etc. he has something planned will be a very interesting few days ahead.

BluePlanet

Tippex wrote: »

yep basically saying that he will ignore the vote etc. he has something planned will be a very interesting few days ahead.

Didn't he also say he would not talk to the EU until they dropped the BackStop?
Didn't happen.

Sam Russell

BluePlanet wrote: »

Didn't he also say he would not talk to the EU until they dropped the BackStop?
Didn't happen.

Well he hasn't really. He sent someone over and they had a cup of tea or coffee and then went home. Came with nothing, and left with nothing. The EU said there was no negotiation with the UK envoy.

So the boomster is just hot air.

An Ciarraioch

Tippex wrote: »

yep basically saying that he will ignore the vote etc. he has something planned will be a very interesting few days ahead.

Will he still go to Dublin on Monday?

Strazdas

jm08 wrote: »

Article in Financial Times (paywall) about attitudes to Brexit in Europe.

How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

In brief:

1. European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

2. European will continue to sound friendly and open to negotiations.
3. Would rather have no-deal Brexit than drop backstop. Fears of renewed conflict on Irish border makes it non-negotiable because peace is the EU's core mission.
4. European business is not lobbying against no deal. They don't want to have to compete with a deregulated UK.
5. They don't see huge economic damage - Ireland expects short term damage.
6. Southern Europeans couldn't give two tosses about it.


Brussels expect Britain to reopen talks within a week. Initially will allow Irish border to be porous, but will be checking continental ports (causing delays and shortages in the UK).

I can't see how the UK remains in the EU under any scenario. Its government and the 17 million Leave voters seem determined to burn all their bridges with the union.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

I can't see how the UK remains in the EU under any scenario.

Very simple - Remain Alliance wins the next General Election, request a 1 year extension, hold a referendum, Remain wins (at least the polls have Remain ahead ever since the last shock result), revoke A50, the end.

Dyr

jm08 wrote: »

Article in Financial Times (paywall) about attitudes to Brexit in Europe.

How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

In brief:

1. European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

What I heard around the time of the last extension, was the French and others were not agreeing to another extension under any circumstances and actually now want the UK out of the EU.

prawnsambo

So now we're down to security threats. At least some sort of talks have started.

Boris Johnson has told Brussels he wants to rewrite the defence pledges in the current Brexit deal, sparking EU fears that he will use the security of European citizens as a bargaining chip.

A demand for a looser level of cooperation was made by Johnson’s EU envoy, David Frost, during the recent talks in Brussels with the European commission negotiators.

20silkcut

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Very simple - Remain Alliance wins the next General Election, request a 1 year extension, hold a referendum, Remain wins (at least the polls have Remain ahead ever since the last shock result), revoke A50, the end.

That won’t count for anything in a general election and FPTP and seat distribution etc.
Tories still look likely to come out on top.
The next parliament could be very different.
We might be looking back at the current parliament as relatively pragmatic.
No deal brexit is, depressingly, still very popular in Britain. And by far the more motivated argument.
Terrible reflection on that country that a movement led by such liars and conniving charlatans has such wide appeal. At this stage they are almost cartoonishly wicked.

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

That won’t count for anything in a general election and FPTP and seat distribution etc.
Tories still look likely to come out on top.
The next parliament could be very different.
We might be looking back at the current parliament as relatively pragmatic.
No deal brexit is, depressingly, still very popular in Britain. And by far the more motivated argument.
Terrible reflection on that country that a movement led by such liars and conniving charlatans has such wide appeal. At this stage they are almost cartoonishly wicked.

Very popular is a relative term. I think it was 22% the last time it was polled.

BluePlanet

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well he hasn't really. He sent someone over and they had a cup of tea or coffee and then went home. Came with nothing, and left with nothing. The EU said there was no negotiation with the UK envoy.

So the boomster is just hot air.

No he spoke to Merkel and Macron, latched onto her off the cuff comment about a deal could be done in 30 days or 3 years or whatever, then ran with that soundbite pretending like the EU are giving ground, to return home "triumphant".
Zero substance to it.

He'll pull the same stunt in Dublin next Monday.

Bigus

jm08 wrote: »

Article in Financial Times (paywall) about attitudes to Brexit in Europe.

How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

In brief:

1. European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

2. European will continue to sound friendly and open to negotiations.
3. Would rather have no-deal Brexit than drop backstop. Fears of renewed conflict on Irish border makes it non-negotiable because peace is the EU's core mission.
4. European business is not lobbying against no deal. They don't want to have to compete with a deregulated UK.
5. They don't see huge economic damage - Ireland expects short term damage.
6. Southern Europeans couldn't give two tosses about it.


Brussels expect Britain to reopen talks within a week. Initially will allow Irish border to be porous, but will be checking continental ports (causing delays and shortages in the UK).

Above reinforces an inkling I have picked up that the E.U. could pull the plug.
Notwithstanding what I said only a day or 2 ago , I now get the feeling that the E.U. inc Ireland have collectively decided to let the U.K. jump.
Isn’t there rumors of the irish cabinet meeting attendees leaving ashen faced after they were brought up to date by Coveny and Varadkar?

Forty Seven

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Very simple - Remain Alliance wins the next General Election, request a 1 year extension, hold a referendum, Remain wins (at least the polls have Remain ahead ever since the last shock result), revoke A50, the end.

Wishful thinking. Tories will likely win the election. There is a reason he is calling for one. He doesn't expect to lose.


As for the rest of it. Riots. Lots of violent, nasty riots. The leavers are not the debating type. Brexit means brexit. If we go the way you suggest expect a bunch of Norf FC types to start marching. It won't be pretty.

prawnsambo

Forty Seven wrote: »

Wishful thinking. Tories will likely win the election. There is a reason he is calling for one. He doesn't expect to lose.

As for the rest of it. Riots. Lots of violent, nasty riots. The leavers are not the debating type. Brexit means brexit. If we go the way you suggest expect a bunch of Norf FC types to start marching. It won't be pretty.

I'd be very loathe to predict any outcome at this stage. There's one thing for sure though, Johnson is a polarising figure. A lot more than I thought he would be, and he's not exactly covering himself in glory at the moment.

sondagefaux

prawnsambo wrote: »

So now we're down to security threats. At least some sort of talks have started.

He'll have to accept that if there is much lower level of security co-operation between the UK and EU after Brexit than envisaged in the WA (and the Political Declaration attached to it), it makes the UK more vulnerable to attacks as much as it makes the EU more vulnerable to attacks.

If he's willing to increase the risk to UK citizens and residents to prove his credentials to the No Deal Brexiteers, he's showing yet again his unfitness for office.

sondagefaux

BluePlanet wrote: »

Didn't he also say he would not talk to the EU until they dropped the BackStop?
Didn't happen.

Talking isn't negotiating.

Negotiating means that you bring proposals to the table and see if they can be acceptable to your counter-party, not telling them what you don't want over and over again.

bazermc

Is there any proceedings to watch tonight? Or will I have to stick to regular TV?

20silkcut

prawnsambo wrote: »

Very popular is a relative term. I think it was 22% the last time it was polled.

I don’t doubt your information but I find it hard to square that with the brexit party polling 45% in the run up to the European elections.

Surely Johnson et al would not be pursuing such a ruinous course of action for a policy that only has 22% support.
They must have confidence that they can win a majority going down this road.

I really wish your figure to be correct but the truth is the last 3 major elections in the Uk, namely the referendum, 2017 GE and 2019 euros, have been significantly Brexity.
The forthcoming inevitable election wouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence that it will put the brexit monster to bed.

sondagefaux

20silkcut wrote: »

I don’t doubt your information but I find it hard to square that with the brexit party polling 45% in the run up to the European elections.

Surely Johnson et al would not be pursuing such a ruinous course of action for a policy that only has 22% support.
They must have confidence that they can win a majority going down this road.

I really wish your figure to be correct but the truth is the last 3 major elections in the Uk namely the referendum, 2017 GE and 2019 euros have been significantly Brexity.
The forthcoming inevitable election wouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence that it will put the brexit monster to bed.

They didn't win 45% of the vote in the European elections, which aren't in any case an indication of how people would vote in a referendum.

Especially since European elections have never been taken very seriously in the UK, even less so when people were voting in the expectation that the UK would be leaving the EU in a matter of months.

If there was a referendum tomorrow with a choice between two leave options (i.e. Remain was not on the ballot), I have no doubt at all that a 'soft Brexit', with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market (with NI alone remaining in a customs union with the EU), would beat No Deal Brexit hands down.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Oh wow did anyone see that segment on Sky news

Lucy Harris v Femi

What a nasty woman and fair play to Kay Burley

She and people of her ilk are one of the reasons why the UK is tearing itself apart and why we across the pond, look at them in disbelief of what they are doing to their own country

RobertKK

bazermc wrote: »

Is there any proceedings to watch tonight? Or will I have to stick to regular TV?

Question Time on BBC1. Can't stand Tice so hopefully someone eviscerates him.

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1169645803192946689?s=20

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

I don’t doubt your information but I find it hard to square that with the brexit party polling 45% in the run up to the European elections.

Surely Johnson et al would not be pursuing such a ruinous course of action for a policy that only has 22% support.
They must have confidence that they can win a majority going down this road.

I really wish your figure to be correct but the truth is the last 3 major elections in the Uk, namely the referendum, 2017 GE and 2019 euros, have been significantly Brexity.
The forthcoming inevitable election wouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence that it will put the brexit monster to bed.

European elections are a joke in the UK. The BP literally took all the UKIP seats there. And of course it's done under the de Hondt system which is not the same as FPTP. So they did no better than UKIP (maybe 1 seat iirc) and that pretty much should translate directly to Westminster election experience as well. Where the best UKIP got was one seat.

Zubeneschamali

Forty Seven wrote: »

Wishful thinking. Tories will likely win the election. There is a reason he is calling for one. He doesn't expect to lose..

He started the week loudly claiming he did not want an election.

The only reason he wants one now is that he has lost control of parliament, his majority, 20+ Mps and his first 3 votes as PM, the first PM in history to do so.

His very last hope to stay in #10 and avoid being the worst PM ever is to win a majority in an election, so now he needs one.

And Corbyn will let him have one after his "Do or die" deadline of 31 Oct has passed and No Deal is deferred to 2020.