Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

retalivity · 05-09-2019 08:08AM

The right/tory leaning English tabloids are insane

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ancapailldorcha · 05-09-2019 08:12AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Also interesting to see if Conservative Central Office attempts to veto or override this.

Absolutely. I'd say at least a few offices might prove rebellious.

LiamoSail · 05-09-2019 08:28AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In other news, it looks like Philip Hammond has been reselected:

Interesting given that the constituency voted Remain by the smallest possible margin. This is something I would expect of a more pro-EU constituency but it's good news nonetheless.

Was mentioned on sky yesterday that regardless of that, losing the whip makes him ineligible to stand as a tory.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 08:48AM

And of course this is not a co-ordinated campaign in the tabloid press. No sir, it's pure coincidence that this will be happening today. The Trump is strong in this one.

mrbrianj · 05-09-2019 08:50AM

LiamoSail wrote: »

Was mentioned on sky yesterday that regardless of that, losing the whip makes him ineligible to stand as a tory.

But by standing for election with the support of his local operation, while the Tory head office run another candidate, could result in a seat lost to an opposition party in a FPTP election.

Who will they take, the ones not voting for the BoJo/Cummings crazy run, or the ones voting against them on every issue.

Like here in the past - remember "Independent Fianna Fáilers"

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 09:04AM

mrbrianj wrote: »

But by standing for election with the support of his local operation, while the Tory head office run another candidate, could result in a seat lost to an opposition party in a FPTP election.

Who will they take, the ones not voting for the BoJo/Cummings crazy run, or the ones voting against them on every issue.

Like here in the past - remember "Independent Fianna Fáilers"

He got 60% of the vote the last time with 35% over Labour so that's very likely to be a seat loss for the Conservatives as he seems intent on running regardless. There will be other organisations who'll be equally as defiant. The combination of prorogation along with whip loss is a very toxic mix.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 09:07AM

mrbrianj wrote: »

But by standing for election with the support of his local operation, while the Tory head office run another candidate, could result in a seat lost to an opposition party in a FPTP election.

Who will they take, the ones not voting for the BoJo/Cummings crazy run, or the ones voting against them on every issue.

Like here in the past - remember "Independent Fianna Fáilers"

He had a massive majority in 2017. 61% of the vote and his majority was bigger than his nearest challenger's total vote. If he stands as an independent, he'll walk home. Probably with a reduced majority (if CHQ run another candidate), but he's in absolutely no danger. Especially with his local party machine behind him. I actually doubt CHQ would attempt to run another candidate against him. A waste of time and money.

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 09:10AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

He had a massive majority in 2017. 61% of the vote and his majority was bigger than his nearest challenger's total vote. If he stands as an independent, he'll walk home. Probably with a reduced majority (if CHQ run another candidate), but he's in absolutely no danger. Especially with his local party machine behind him. I actually doubt CHQ would attempt to run another candidate against him. A waste of time and money.

There seems to be an absolute bunker mentality about Johnson and Cummings and an assumption that the party will just roll in behind them for his victory parade. He crossed quite a few lines, some of them may turn out to be very red.

Peregrinus · 05-09-2019 09:12AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

He had a massive majority in 2017. 61% of the vote and his majority was bigger than his nearest challenger's total vote. If he stands as an independent, he'll walk home. Probably with a reduced majority (if CHQ run another candidate), but he's in absolutely no danger. Especially with his local party machine behind him. I actually doubt CHQ would attempt to run another candidate against him. A waste of time and money.

"Waste of time and money" is not typically a concern that has much traction with Brexiters.

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 09:18AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

"Waste of time and money" is not typically a concern that has much traction with Brexiters.

If they think that money can be used unseating someone elsewhere they'll probably take that seat hit and move on. You would wonder how potential donors are viewing this horror show. Not all of them would be militant Brexiteers.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 09:18AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

"Waste of time and money" is not typically a concern that has much traction with Brexiters.

Party HQs are usually a lot more realistic than demagogues and charlatans. If it doesn't make sense to spend money and time running a candidate in a particular constituency, they'll divert it to one that has a chance of being won.

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 09:20AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Party HQs are usually a lot more realistic than demagogues and charlatans. If it doesn't make sense to spend money and time running a candidate in a particular constituency, they'll divert it to one that has a chance of being won.

Sure but it will depend on who's calling the "strategy" and they have a "genius" in their midst.

Peregrinus · 05-09-2019 09:20AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Party HQs are usually a lot more realistic than demagogues and charlatans. If it doesn't make sense to spend money and time running a candidate in a particular constituency, they'll divert it to one that has a chance of being won.

Tory Party policy (and I think also Labour) has long been to run a candidate in every seat in GB (except the Speaker's). It's not an absolutely inflexible policy, but it's pretty strong. And it might sent a bad signal in the election campaign to concede that this incredibly safe Tory seat is unwinnable for the Johnson Tory party.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 09:21AM

is_that_so wrote: »

If they think that money can be used unseating someone elsewhere they'll probably take that seat hit and move on. You would wonder how potential donors are viewing this horror show. Not all of them would be militant Brexiteers.

This is an interesting quandary for the Tories. Johnson has pretty much nailed his colours to the mast as a hard brexiter. In an election campaign, he's likely to have that in his manifesto, because otherwise it would look like rowing back. And it will lose him Tory votes. He's painted himself into a corner. Seems to be a thing with Tory PMs.

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 09:22AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Tory Party policy (and I think also Labour) has long been to run a candidate in every seat in GB (except the Speaker's). It's not an absolutely inflexible policy, but it's pretty strong. And it might sent a bad signal in the election campaign to concede that this incredibly safe Tory seat is unwinnable for the Johnson Tory party.

As if there haven't been any bad signals sent to date! They could select a dud and accept the seat lost.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 09:23AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Tory Party policy (and I think also Labour) has long been to run a candidate in every seat in GB (except the Speaker's). It's not an absolutely inflexible policy, but it's pretty strong. And it might sent a bad signal in the election campaign to concede that this incredibly safe Tory seat is unwinnable for the Johnson Tory party.

They'll possibly run a cannon fodder candidate there, but in reality Hammond is a Tory and when the dust settles, will probably return to the fold. If they push it, he could defect to the LibDems and then they're screwed. Choices, choices.

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 09:27AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is an interesting quandary for the Tories. Johnson has pretty much nailed his colours to the mast as a hard brexiter. In an election campaign, he's likely to have that in his manifesto, because otherwise it would look like rowing back. And it will lose him Tory votes. He's painted himself into a corner. Seems to be a thing with Tory PMs.

The Tories have always had centrist MPs and voters who reflect those values - a sort of decent Middle England types. There are a lot of unknowns in this particular election, especially after these last few days, mostly what will the voting public do.

prawnsambo · 05-09-2019 09:33AM

This is very interesting. And of course hilarious. And so ironic.

elbyrneo · 05-09-2019 09:39AM

Is there a realistic/viable path to another referendum?
Say:
-House of Lords approve the commons approved no-no deal Brexit.
-Legislation impelmented. Boris compelled to request EU extension.
-Boris presents to EU or stands down and his replacement presents.
-EU accept.
-Post Oct 31st, a general election held.
-A majority govt of Labour, SNP, Lib Dem?
-Or a Conservative led coalition that would actually support another referendum?

Is there actually anyone who would be brave enough to lead Gov't, insist on another referendum on the basis of say an uninformed original vote? And could that person or coalition realistically get into power?

Or will the wheels just keep on spinning......

weemcd · 05-09-2019 09:42AM

Boris Johnson Monday 02.09.19 - I do not want an election.

Boris Johnson Tuesday 03.09.19 - I want an election.

Boris Johnson Wednesday 04.09.19 - tries to force a bill through to call an election.

Boris Johnson Thursday 05.09.19 - Jeremy Corbyn is a coward because he doesn't want an immediate election, see this Tory rag newspaper headline.

... it's not even Friday yet.

Popeleo · 05-09-2019 09:56AM

is_that_so wrote: »

There seems to be an absolute bunker mentality about Johnson and Cummings and an assumption that the party will just roll in behind them for his victory parade. He crossed quite a few lines, some of them may turn out to be very red.

Not surprising, given that Cummings is supposed to have spent two and a half years in the early 2000s in a bunker reading "trying to understand the world". On his family farm that has received hundreds of thousands of pounds in EU subsidies.

He also spent three years living in Russia in the mid 90s.

Brexit - the gift that keeps on taking.

joe40 · 05-09-2019 10:14AM

There will probably have to be a general election soon, and it will be framed by Boris and the Brexiteers as back leave at all costs including "no deal" versus everyone else. The full spectrum from "remain" to "deal only leavers".

The problem is due to the British electoral system of FPTP he could get a significant majority on 40% of the vote.

This will be taken as a mandate to pursue a no deal against the wishes of the majority of the British people.

The only way to find out what the majority of the public want is to have a second referendum.

People would now be making an informed choice, they are aware of the issues with securing a deal so let them have another vote with a clearly defined outcome for either Yes or No.

The 2016 vote was a farce for a modern democracy. Ask the public a question and sort out the details afterwards.

circadian · 05-09-2019 10:21AM

All the noises from Northern Ireland are that pro-EU parties are in talks on how to handle the potential general election, including Sinn Fein. I might be a bit too optimistic in thinking that those involved are agreeing on what constituencies they run in.

is_that_so · 05-09-2019 10:24AM

circadian wrote: »

All the noises from Northern Ireland are that pro-EU parties are in talks on how to handle the potential general election, including Sinn Fein. I might be a bit too optimistic in thinking that those involved are agreeing on what constituencies they run in.

The current mature adult behaviour on the opposition benches may have inspired them.

prunudo · 05-09-2019 10:32AM

retalivity wrote: »

The right/tory leaning English tabloids are insane

Just goes to show the power of the media and how they can sway a debate or a way of thinking.
Similarly shows how important words and language are. Boris and co using words like surrender and anti democratic to push their agenda while also hanging on Merkels lost in translation 30 days as if its an actual set in stone time extension.
Its all smoke and mirrors, people who are paying attention can see them for what they are but not the people who they are aiming their speeches at.

CelticRambler · 05-09-2019 10:38AM

It's really starting to annoy me hearing so many Tories repeating the line that the threat of no-deal is "negotiation 101" (or variations on the theme). Of course you don't necessarily reveal your compromise position going into a negotiation, but in just about every such situation the two parties are aiming to achieve a common end-point of mutual interest.

But the real fundamental rule of negotiation is to adjust your strategy according to the circumstances. I'm buying, you're selling - if we can't agree a price then yes: "no deal" is an option and neither of us get what we want, but neither do we lose what we have, and chances are, if we can't find an alternative negotiating partner, we can re-visit the same deal in the future.

I want to go to a movie and McDonalds, you want to go to the Ritz and the English National Opera? "No deal" is also an option, but if we don't agree something, we'll end up doing nothing. So it might be McD's & the Opera, or it might be hot dogs at Funderland, but starting that discussion by saying "if you won't do what I want, we're staying in and I'm having all my friends around" is not a recipe for a healthy relationship.

Perhaps if you're an arrogant white male Etonian you're taught that always having what you want is perfectly normal ...

Duane Dibbley · 05-09-2019 10:38AM

This election will be odd.

You could have BP and Cons splitting the Leave vote

and

Lab and Lib D splitting the Remain vote.

Water John · 05-09-2019 10:41AM

The timing of the election will be the interesting factor, before the 17th Oct, between the 17th and 31st, after the 31st. Three options all in the call of the opposition parties.

GE before 17th could be sending a diff PM to Brussels.
Between the 17th and 31st forces Johnson to ask EU for an Ext.
After the 31st, Johnson owns the Ext.

Unless Johnson has No Deal, the Brexit Party will run against him. Above all Johnson has to take all their votes to have any chance of a majority, since he has scorched the middle ground.

robinph · 05-09-2019 10:49AM

Water John wrote: »

The timing of the election will be the interesting factor, before the 17th Oct, between the 17th and 31st, after the 31st. Three options all in the call of the opposition parties.

GE before 17th could be sending a diff PM to Brussels.
Between the 17th and 31st forces Johnson to ask EU for an Ext.
After the 31st, Johnson owns the Ext.

Unless Johnson has No Deal, the Brexit Party will run against him. Above all Johnson has to take all their votes to have any chance of a majority.

Ensuring that it is a post Oct 31st election is the safest move as parliament then remains in control of Johnson, any option where they hold one before then and all bets are off as there is no telling what the outcome would be.
Holding it after 31st and you've humiliated Johnson, and with any luck the Tories and Brexit parties can carry on ripping each other apart, but the other parites would also be shredded by all the "you stole our Brexit" complaining.

Most sensible, but risky, move for the opposition is to have a vote of no confidence and move in with a caretaker government and no need for an election. They can then call for the extension and propose a second referendum, then step down and hold a GE on the same date.

Whoever then comes into power will have a clear instruction from the population about their view on Brexit and just has to carry that out. The risk is not being able to form a caretaker government.

CelticRambler · 05-09-2019 10:50AM

circadian wrote: »

All the noises from Northern Ireland are that pro-EU parties are in talks on how to handle the potential general election, including Sinn Fein. I might be a bit too optimistic in thinking that those involved are agreeing on what constituencies they run in.

This is something that'll be very interesting to watch. If the non-DUP parties find a way to coordinate their candidatures and campaigns (without actually "working together") and achieve a degree of success, that could provide a template for future elections to Stormont. Regardless of whether or not it's an economic catastrophe, if Brexit pushes NI politics through the Orange vs. Green divide it could end up being the most positive thing to come out of the whole debacle.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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