Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell · 04-09-2019 10:03PM

schmittel wrote: »

I'd say Johnson will be asking Tory peers not to filibuster, get royal assent asap, and ask Corbyn again for the election on the 15th.

Currently the only way he can deliver on his promise to leave by October 31st is to try and win a majority on 15th - i.e before the EC summit on 17th.

Of course, once Parliament is prorogued which happens Monday (IIRC), then there can be no calling election till after the Queens speech, so election would be after the 31st of October, and the bill would become law and require him to get an extension - so no crash out.

He is snookered whatever he does because Parliament is shut down. Not quite what they wanted. Cummings and game theory.

[Throwing the chicken out the window is not a winning strategy in any game].

Water John · 04-09-2019 10:03PM

'The prime minister along with the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, SNP Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, Jess Phillips and Dominic Grieve will be on Peston in a bit. Should be fun.' Guardian

Will Johnson be on with Peston?

Ken Clarke filleting Johnson in the HOC, is worth seeing.

Leroy42 · 04-09-2019 10:03PM

Thargor wrote: »

This is too funny, Mays deal manages to sneak in for another vote:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169317929520963584

Just on that LK tweet. Imagine putting out such a naive statement like that. Did she do any digging into what happened? Did she actually try to talk to anybody from the government about how they would make such a 'mistake'?

Itssoeasy · 04-09-2019 10:05PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well this parliament has, I agree. But I think if you are going to put it back to the people, on the basis that HoC is deadlocked, you cannot then say one option is removed.

Well no deal happening on October 31st is getting very slim. But honestly would having a GE change anything to the point where it got this mess sorted one way or another ? Isn't a parliament meant to represent the people of the country it sits in ?

Leroy42 · 04-09-2019 10:08PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well no deal happening on October 31st is getting very slim. But honestly would having a GE change anything to the point where it got this mess sorted one way or another ? Isn't a parliament meant to represent the people of the country it sits in ?

It is, and that is why it is hopelessly lost on the whole BRexit issue. It has no real idea what it wants.

it perfectly reflects the country.

hometruths · 04-09-2019 10:13PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Of course, once Parliament is prorogued which happens Monday (IIRC), then there can be no calling election till after the Queens speech, so election would be after the 31st of October, and the bill would become law and require him to get an extension - so no crash out.

He is snookered whatever he does because Parliament is shut down. Not quite what they wanted. Cummings and game theory.

[Throwing the chicken out the window is not a winning strategy in any game].

I agree time is against him, which is why I think he should offer MPs that he will ask for an extension on the condition that they approve an election on the 15th.

I think his strategy of convincing MPs he was mad enough to go for no deal worked a little too well in as far as they now think he is deranged enough to change agreed dates of a GE in order to sneak in a no deal!

hometruths · 04-09-2019 10:16PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well no deal happening on October 31st is getting very slim. But honestly would having a GE change anything to the point where it got this mess sorted one way or another ? Isn't a parliament meant to represent the people of the country it sits in ?

If Johnson can win enough of a majority to ditch the DUP I think he would go for customs border down the Irish Sea - he could get approval pretty quickly from the EU and I also think he would get it through parliament also.

BluePlanet · 04-09-2019 10:16PM

Are Labour basically forcing BoJo into the massive humiliation of having to ask the EU for an extension?
Surely he falls on his own sword first?

Leroy42 · 04-09-2019 10:17PM

schmittel wrote: »

I agree time is against him, which is why I think he should offer MPs that he will ask for an extension on the condition that they approve an election on the 15th.

I think his strategy of convincing MPs he was mad enough to go for no deal worked a little too well in as far as they now think he is deranged enough to change agreed dates of a GE in order to sneak in a no deal!

They don't trust him. There is nothing to stop him winning the election and then revoking the legislation demanding and extension and going No Deal.

Of course he would need to win a majority, but it is a material risk and thus they would be, imo, mad to give it to him.

Mr.Nice Guy · 04-09-2019 10:18PM

I'm not sure there is an appetite amongst the majority of the UK electorate for another extension.

People are fed up, and many seem to be under the mistaken impression that if Brexit takes place without a deal, that's the end of the issue. The fact that 'No Deal' is really 'No deal for now' as David McWilliams puts it hasn't really sunk in.

If Johnson goes to the public with a message of 'Let's get this done and move on' I think that is likely to resonate with a lot of voters. If the original Brexit vote has taught us anything it's that the UK electorate doesn't tend to be interested in the details.

Bit cynical · 04-09-2019 10:20PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Are Labour basically forcing BoJo into the massive humiliation of having to ask the EU for an extension?
Surely he falls on his own sword first?

Yes he would probably have to resign if it came to it. Can't see him asking for an extension.

Leroy42 · 04-09-2019 10:21PM

schmittel wrote: »

If Johnson can win enough of a majority to ditch the DUP I think he would go for customs border down the Irish Sea - he could get approval pretty quickly from the EU and I also think he would get it through parliament also.

He could do that tomorrow if he wanted.

The Benn amendment does not preclude him from striking a deal, Johnson line is that it removes any pressure on the EU to do that. But he could agree to NI backstop (the EU I think would be happy with that as it was the original deal) and put that to the house.

He would almost certainly get enough votes to get it through. But he would probably be forced to resign as he based his entire last few years, and he run to leader of the Tories, on not agreeing with the WA.

And therein lies the real issue. His is really all about Johnson, just as the division under TM were all about her and her attempt to keep only the ERG and DUP happy. If either of them took a "best for UK" approach it is actually a relatively simply issue to resolve.

hometruths · 04-09-2019 10:25PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

They don't trust him. There is nothing to stop him winning the election and then revoking the legislation demanding and extension and going No Deal.

Of course he would need to win a majority, but it is a material risk and thus they would be, imo, mad to give it to him.

If he campaigns on leaving Deal or No Deal by October 31st and wins a majority strong enough to do the above surely that is perfectly OK?

Any MP who essentially thinks that they would be mad to give him the chance to seek a mandate from the electorate and then subsequently carry out that mandate ought not to be an MP in the first place!

MikeSoys · 04-09-2019 10:25PM

if the queen ratifies the blocking of the no deal.. no deal cant happen as its law?

Kermit.de.frog · 04-09-2019 10:26PM

Telegraph tomorrow saying the EU commission has doubled down on the backstop insisting not one letter is going to change.

(paywalled)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/04/european-commission-doubles-irish-backstop-no-deal-brexit-plan/#comments

hometruths · 04-09-2019 10:30PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

He could do that tomorrow if he wanted.

The Benn amendment does not preclude him from striking a deal, Johnson line is that it removes any pressure on the EU to do that. But he could agree to NI backstop (the EU I think would be happy with that as it was the original deal) and put that to the house.

He would almost certainly get enough votes to get it through. But he would probably be forced to resign as he based his entire last few years, and he run to leader of the Tories, on not agreeing with the WA.

And therein lies the real issue. His is really all about Johnson, just as the division under TM were all about her and her attempt to keep only the ERG and DUP happy. If either of them took a "best for UK" approach it is actually a relatively simply issue to resolve.

He'd spin his version of the WA well enough to save face.

I am not sure he would get it through the house tomorrow as a good chunk of the ERG would be against it.

And I think his No Deal mania is designed to bully MPs rather than the EU. He could lose the ERG but get enough opposition MPs if the choice they face is vote for my WA or it is No Deal.

As long as they can force PMs (of whatever party/ideology) to ask for extensions none of them will vote for anything!

An Ciarraioch · 04-09-2019 10:31PM

David Gauke expelled from Conservative Party altogether:

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1169357420726030336

hometruths · 04-09-2019 10:32PM

MikeSoys wrote: »

if the queen ratifies the blocking of the no deal.. no deal cant happen as its law?

As the EU are fond of pointing out until they are blue (and yellow!) in the face the only way to avoid No Deal is to either vote for a deal or revoke article 50.

sdanseo · 04-09-2019 10:32PM

MikeSoys wrote: »

if the queen ratifies the blocking of the no deal.. no deal cant happen as its law?

Lords has to vote on bill preventing no deal. If they pass it before prorogation, No deal is off the table, Boris's position is utterly untenable and a General Election is imminent.
If they don't pass it, we are back to an Election but you would imagine Boris' position would still be untenable. 1922 might have to be reconvened but in the sort term you would have a lame duck wielding executive power, a very dangerous situation.

My question is, if the above occurs, and Conservatives even without Boris won the election, the law could be changed by an incoming Parliament before 31st October? How soon can HOC sit and create a new Bill after an election result is announced?

Talk of QEII sacking Boris or putting her foot in the middle of a constitutional crisis with some outrageous intervention are absolute madness, the only exception being if the PM decided to completely ignore an Act of Parliament and break the law in which case she could possibly act to maintain the status quo.

maebee · 04-09-2019 10:34PM

Beth Rugby on Sky news saying that BoJo's ruthlessness knows no bounds. The "What it says in the papers" slot coming on now. Always a must watch when Kevin Maguire and Andrew Pierce are the contributors.

Bit cynical · 04-09-2019 10:36PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

He could do that tomorrow if he wanted.

The Benn amendment does not preclude him from striking a deal, Johnson line is that it removes any pressure on the EU to do that. But he could agree to NI backstop (the EU I think would be happy with that as it was the original deal) and put that to the house.

Probably a bit late for that now, but under what basis would the UK (minus NI) trade with the EU on the 1st November on this deal?

Degag · 04-09-2019 10:36PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Boris Johnson thinks the leader of the opposition is Marty McFly and he can get him to do anything by calling him a chicken if he doesn’t

Most of his party colleagues essentially had the same argument all evening.

Schoolkids would be embarrassed to use such tactics!

boggerman1 · 04-09-2019 10:42PM

maebee wrote: »

Beth Rugby on Sky news saying that BoJo's ruthlessness knows no bounds. The "What it says in the papers" slot coming on now. Always a must watch when Kevin Maguire and Andrew Pierce are the contributors.

Pierce is hopping mad that the U.K. Is still in the EU.great watch

Harry Palmr · 04-09-2019 10:45PM

Good to see Master of Disaster Dominic Cummings is getting more and more attention for his catastrophising (is that even a word?) of a crisis. This year zero stuff is utterly reckless, and an unwelcome import from the Toxic States of America, as chlorinated chicken will be.

Headshot · 04-09-2019 10:45PM

It would be smart move if Labour vote for a GE in November where BJ have to go to Europe before hand and ask for an extension.

It would be humiliating to BJ and a nail in his coffin

Limpy · 04-09-2019 10:48PM

Cornering the PM will backfire. His party were all but sitting ducks, but he now has purged the remainers and can go to the people with a clear mandate. Vote Leave or it's Corbyn.

lola85 · 04-09-2019 10:48PM

The lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.

Headshot · 04-09-2019 10:55PM

There's a vid on standard webpage with Kens stinger on BJ

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-votes-result-boris-johnson-suffers-double-commons-defeat-as-mps-back-bill-to-block-nodeal-and-a4229321.html

4068ac1elhodqr · 04-09-2019 10:55PM

Odds (avg) to win in their Next GE

Tory: 1.4
Lab: 3.75 (short)
TBP: 19
LD: 18

If the option presents itself again in the days ahead, can see Labour doing well, by absorbing the 48% remainers.
Might the LD even seek to join in coalition purely on the sole issue of Brexit.

Couple of other big issues the dismal HS2 delays (2031 eta), and £88bn down the drain so far.
Labour keen on x3 regional UBI trails and the 4-day work week: £288bn cost, but plenty of taxes for the rich to pay for this.

FrancieBrady · 04-09-2019 11:14PM

Can someone explain the deal it's been 'whispered'(according to Newsnight) that Boris might offer Corbyn?

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Comments