Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 04-09-2019 10:56AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. Article 50 says you have 2 years to come up with a deal but, deal or no deal, at the end of 2 years you're out, unless an extension is unanimously agreed. (And the same rule applies at the end of any extension.)

Not to be pedantic, but even the two years bit is just the default if you don't agree an earlier date. The key phrase; which you allude to, is "The Treaties will cease to apply...". That's basically no deal, which under Article 50 is the actual endpoint of the process. The transition period in the WA is something new, not enshrined in A50. The future relationship would have to be agreed very quickly after the end of the A50 period in order to cut off the effects of all treaties ceasing to apply.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 10:57AM

murphaph wrote: »

With the current numbers the logical next step is a VonC and then a caretaker PM I would have imagined, to pull the emergency brake. The Queen would be only to happy to appoint someone other than Johnson as her next PM I'm sure, even Comrade Corbyn, given what Johnson pulled with the proroguing business. She knows he has lied to her.

If Corbyn could put his ego aside and let Ken Clarke step up to be caretaker PM (he's declared he is willing and now he will not even be a Tory!) this could all be contained, an extension sought on the basis of another referendum with leave with no deal/revoke on the ballot as these are the actual choices available and leave with no deal absolutely must be an option or this will rumble on.

I'm amazed you really believe that. People so t want Corbyn, they don't want a care taker government, they don't want a 2nd referendum..they want Brexit and democracy rests on it. A general election is what the public wants

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 10:59AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A very drunk Dominic Cummings went up to Corbyn last night and challenged him to an election ‘come on Corbyn don’t be afraid of us’. Apparently he was locked and wandering around HOC lost too at one stage

Very drunk. The mirror went from he had a glass of wine in his hand to you saying very drunk. No wonder the remainers are so badly informed.

prawnsambo · 04-09-2019 10:59AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I'm amazed you really believe that. People so t want Corbyn, they don't want a care taker government, they don't want a 2nd referendum..they want Brexit and democracy rests on it. A general election is what the public wants

But Johnson said the people didn't want an election. It was on the front pages of the newspapers. He said it in front of Downing Street. Are you saying he was lying?

seamus · 04-09-2019 11:00AM

robinph wrote: »

The success of last night, and the expected success of later today, in taking control and preventing a no-deal exit on the 31st of October is all completely pointless the moment they agree to a general election. They need to block no deal at the end of October, and also change it from being the default option at the end of any extension or in X months time we'll just be back in exactly the same place again.

The first part there looks like what today's Bill is attempting.

Broadly the bill says that if no agreement is reached by the 19th October, the Prime Minister is obliged to go to Europe and ask for an extension to 31st January.

It's no guarantee though I feel. Even if it's passed and signed, who's to say that Johnson as a caretaker PM would actually go ask for the extension. It's possible he could spend 12 days faffing and going to court to challenge the bill and basically avoiding his legal duty.

From what I can tell, Corbyn's plan is to run a GE campaign on the basis of a second referendum. All done and dusted by 31st January, Brexit cancelled, Corbyn in power, Tories in ruins.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2019 11:01AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not to be pedantic, but even the two years bit is just the default if you don't agree an earlier date. The key phrase; which you allude to, is "The Treaties will cease to apply...". That's basically no deal, which under Article 50 is the actual endpoint of the process. The transition period in the WA is something new, not enshrined in A50. The future relationship would have to be agreed very quickly after the end of the A50 period in order to cut off the effects of all treaties ceasing to apply.

No-deal is not the endpoint of the process; just one possible endpoint. The desired endpoint is in fact Brexit-with-a-deal (which may or may provide for a transition period continuing the application of the Treaties for a limited period; that's a matter for agreement). But the default endpoint, if no deal gets agreed, is Brexit anyway, but without a deal.

Either no-deal Brexit or Brexit-with-a-deal ends the Brexit process. Then comes the much bigger process of negotiating an implementing a new relationship bewteen the departing state and the EU.

If you think the Brexit process is goinng badly because the UK doesn't have a plan, wait until you see the hames they make of the next stage because of not having plan for that either.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 11:01AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Presumably the 'rebels' believe a GE will produce a majority in favour of another referendum or a different deal or whatever

The 81 items to be discussed in the lords means it might not even hit the agenda before recess. The GE will wipe out the remainers and all analysts except those in an echo chamber know it

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 11:02AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

But Johnson said the people didn't want an election. It was on the front pages of the newspapers. He said it in front of Downing Street. Are you saying he was lying?

Sigh,

Ge has set the stage for the current Parliament against the people

awec · 04-09-2019 11:03AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The 81 items to be discussed in the lords means it might not even hit the agenda before recess. The GE will wipe out the remainers and all analysts except those in an echo chamber know it

Garbage.

If this were true we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

prawnsambo · 04-09-2019 11:06AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

No-deal is not the endpoint of the process; just one possible endpoint. The desired endpoint is in fact Brexit-with-a-deal (which may or may provide for a transition period continuing the application of the Treaties for a limited period; that's a matter for agreement). But the default endpoint, if no deal gets agreed, is Brexit anyway, but without a deal.

I'm not referring specifically to this situation, but what's actually in Article 50. There is no provision in A50 for a TP, so the default endpoint is just an exit with a promise of a future relationship yet to be agreed. The TP was actually a concession given by the EU, it's not written down that there should be one.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2019 11:06AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Very drunk. The mirror went from he had a glass of wine in his hand to you saying very drunk. No wonder the remainers are so badly informed.

Numerous journalists and politicians are tweeting to the effect that Cummings was wandering the lobbies with a glass of wine (which is not allowed), drunk, lost, truculent and "stinking of booze". Are you saying that they're all wrong, and the the Mirror is your sole standard of journalistic integrity?

ballsymchugh · 04-09-2019 11:06AM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

You made this point a good few pages back and you're the only one who nailed down this fact correctly. Everyone seems to have forgotten how 10 years of austerity has floored and impacted services, professions, jobs everywhere. Many teachers, doctors, care professionals, families, elderly.. hell, even tory councils workers/local authorities will vote for change. May said she would alter it, supports the JAMs, she didn't.. the trust is not there and the tories have to come to natural end on this run anyway.

Folks are not going to vote for Corbyn per se, but they will vote for change. In a GE, I will vote labour. Easy.

that's the difference between voting for a GE with no deal on or off the table. now that it's more than likely to be off the table, Corbyn can focus on other stuff.

A term should be 5 years, there's more to a GE than brexit, which is how he did better than expected last time out. he didn't focus on the one topic. Johnson will only have one drum to beat in a campaign.

if there's a proper remain alliance with Labour included, they could do very well.

Stop moaning ffs · 04-09-2019 11:10AM

This from the DUP last night. After having refused endas invitation on a brexit forum. Refusing the all island forum, ranting about Coveneys presence in Stormont, calling Leo stubborn and truculent. And on and on.
Now they want to engage. Panic is setting in as they realize the lights have changed and which way this Is headed I’d say

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1168977812361007105?s=21

declanflynn · 04-09-2019 11:11AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

With the current numbers the logical next step is a VonC and then a caretaker PM I would have imagined, to pull the emergency brake. The Queen would be only to happy to appoint someone other than Johnson as her next PM I'm sure, even Comrade Corbyn, given what Johnson pulled with the proroguing business. She knows he has lied to her.

If Corbyn could put his ego aside and let Ken Clarke step up to be caretaker PM (he's declared he is willing and now he will not even be a Tory!) this could all be contained, an extension sought on the basis of another referendum with leave with no deal/revoke on the ballot as these are the actual choices available and leave with no deal absolutely must be an option or this will rumble on.

I'm amazed you really believe that. People so t want Corbyn, they don't want a care taker government, they don't want a 2nd referendum..they want Brexit and democracy rests on it. A general election is what the public wants

Only 22% of brits want a no deal, looks like depaffel will be gone soon old chap

prawnsambo · 04-09-2019 11:12AM

Enzokk wrote: »

You are right,

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1169179774616555520?s=20

So it looks like the initial judgement on whether the UK could unilaterally withdraw article 50 notice was also defeated at the first court, but later overturned and confirmed by the ECJ.

I'm not sure this case has any real chance of succeeding. The Queen has the prerogative power to prorogue parliament. If the court decides to overturn that, then who has the power? The court can't devolve powers without law to provide a path to where that power should be devolved to. No court can. Because courts can't write laws, only interpret them.

declanflynn · 04-09-2019 11:12AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A very drunk Dominic Cummings went up to Corbyn last night and challenged him to an election ‘come on Corbyn don’t be afraid of us’. Apparently he was locked and wandering around HOC lost too at one stage

Very drunk. The mirror went from he had a glass of wine in his hand to you saying very drunk. No wonder the remainers are so badly informed.

No wonder depaffel is so badly advised

murphaph · 04-09-2019 11:14AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A very drunk Dominic Cummings went up to Corbyn last night and challenged him to an election ‘come on Corbyn don’t be afraid of us’. Apparently he was locked and wandering around HOC lost too at one stage

Jesus. Sounds like the last days in the Hitler bunker :-(

ancapailldorcha · 04-09-2019 11:16AM

declanflynn wrote: »

Only 22% of brits want a no deal, looks like depaffel will be gone soon old chap

declanflynn wrote: »

No wonder depaffel is so badly advised

Cut out the one-liners and use individuals' proper names please.

sjb25 · 04-09-2019 11:17AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This from the DUP last night. After having refused endas invitation on a brexit forum. Refusing the all island forum, ranting about Coveneys presence in Stormont, calling Leo stubborn and truculent. And on and on.
Now they want to engage. Panic is setting in as they realize the lights have changed and which way this Is headed I’d say

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1168977812361007105?s=21

They must be unionist turning to southerners for help Ian Paisley would be spinning ULSTER SAYS HELP

prawnsambo · 04-09-2019 11:17AM

David Lammy trolling Boris Johnson is pretty sharp. He's been waitng over three years to say this.

Infini · 04-09-2019 11:19AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This from the DUP last night. After having refused endas invitation on a brexit forum. Refusing the all island forum, ranting about Coveneys presence in Stormont, calling Leo stubborn and truculent. And on and on.
Now they want to engage. Panic is setting in as they realize the lights have changed and which way this Is headed I’d say

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1168977812361007105?s=21

Some of the responces on that feed are utter gold and certainly no short amount of people pointing out their hypocracy on how they were approached by Enda about this and told him to fob off since they were full snout to troth at the time.

SNIP.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2019 11:19AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure this case has any real chance of succeeding. The Queen has the prerogative power to prorogue parliament. If the court decides to overturn that, then who has the power? The court can't devolve powers without law to provide a path to where that power should be devolved to. No court can. Because courts can't write laws, only interpret them.

Haven't looked at this in detail, but SFAIK the challenge is not to the monarch's decision to prorogue parliament, but to the legality/propriety of the advice given to her by her ministers. If Ministers can be compelled to withdraw their advice, question of proroguation will then be reconsidered.

declanflynn · 04-09-2019 11:20AM

ModSNIP. Do not question mod warnings on thread please.

McMurphy · 04-09-2019 11:20AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This from the DUP last night. After having refused endas invitation on a brexit forum. Refusing the all island forum, ranting about Coveneys presence in Stormont, calling Leo stubborn and truculent. And on and on.
Now they want to engage. Panic is setting in as they realize the lights have changed and which way this Is headed I’d say

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1168977812361007105?s=21

This response nails it tbh.

https://twitter.com/ConallGettigan/status/1168980963994607616?s=09

Imreoir2 · 04-09-2019 11:20AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Very drunk. The mirror went from he had a glass of wine in his hand to you saying very drunk. No wonder the remainers are so badly informed.

Do you have evidence that he was not drunk? Having a glass of wine in your hand and being very drunk are not mutually exclusive, infact one somewhat leads to the other.

Zubeneschamali · 04-09-2019 11:29AM

seamus wrote: »

From what I can tell, Corbyn's plan is to run a GE campaign on the basis of a second referendum.

He is still being a bit cryptic and giving cause for doubt. Here he is in his speech on the 2nd, talking about the next election (after No Deal has been deferred by an extension):

And in that election, Labour will give the people the chance to take back control, and have the final say in a public vote, with credible options for both sides including the option to remain.

I think he's saying 2nd referendum without saying the words "2nd referendum", and I think he means Remain vs. Labour Brexit (as neither No Deal or May's deal are credible in Labour's eyes), which would mean a period of renegotiation to get Labour's Brexit ready, say a year or so.

But, of course, if the Bollocks to Brexit party are part of a coalition, they might prefer a quicker resolution, like Remain vs. the hated WA, since that would make Remain more likely to win, and resolve the issue a shorter time into the next session to reduce the risk that something brings down the next government while Brexit is still hanging...

declanflynn · 04-09-2019 11:29AM

Infini wrote: »

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This from the DUP last night. After having refused endas invitation on a brexit forum. Refusing the all island forum, ranting about Coveneys presence in Stormont, calling Leo stubborn and truculent. And on and on.
Now they want to engage. Panic is setting in as they realize the lights have changed and which way this Is headed I’d say

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1168977812361007105?s=21

Some of the responces on that feed are utter gold and certainly no short amount of people pointing out their hypocracy on how they were approached by Enda about this and told him to fob off since they were full snout to troth at the time.

Bonus points for this responce too!
SNIP.

I thought that was Daniel O'Donnell at the back

bob mcbob · 04-09-2019 11:32AM

This is paywalled but you get the message (from a unionist newspaper) -

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/the-wind-is-changing-on-scottish-independence-pd7grpwrq

Tories wiped out in Scotland (again) and majority support for independence

Naggdefy · 04-09-2019 11:36AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Gibraltar is British, Spain can try and take it. They would be as useful as the Argies on that front.

The imperial bully boy attitude is strong in this one. Why the need to hold on to The Maldives, 10,000 miles away. And a rocknot near your shores. The British establishment. It's really enjoyable watching your slow decline. A quicker one wouldn't be half as pleasureable.

First Up · 04-09-2019 11:36AM

Imreoir2 wrote:

Do you have evidence that he was not drunk? Having a glass of wine in your hand and being very drunk are not mutually exclusive, infact one somewhat leads to the other.

Was the wine French?

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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