Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 12:21AM

davedanon wrote: »

By what measure, exactly?

Seriously?

davedanon · 04-09-2019 12:25AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Seriously?

Yes. Back up your assertions with some facts, if it's not too much trouble.

davedanon · 04-09-2019 12:34AM

I'm not fully au fait with the data, but I'm fairly certain that the EU is the second biggest economy in the world, only just behind the US. The Seppoes are at about 21 trillion, we're maybe 18 triliion, with China 14-15 trillion.

So. TINPOT. Discuss.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 12:36AM

davedanon wrote: »

I'm not fully au fait with the data, but I'm fairly certain that the EU is the second biggest economy in the world, only just behind the US. The Seppoes are at about 21 trillion, we're maybe 18 triliion, with China 14-15 trillion.

So. TINPOT. Discuss.

EU doesn't really grow or adapt. It has no army and will remain that way as the UK and Washington don't see it in their interests.

Trump is about to trade war their backsides.

davedanon · 04-09-2019 12:49AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU doesn't really grow or adapt. It has no army and will remain that way as the UK and Washington don't see it in their interests.

Trump is about to trade war their backsides.

I'm sorry, but this is illiterate nonsense. Are you going to contribute in actual sentences, or should I just go to bed?

Bannasidhe · 04-09-2019 12:51AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU doesn't really grow or adapt. It has no army and will remain that way as the UK and Washington don't see it in their interests.

Trump is about to trade war their backsides.

I'm not sure you understand what the EU actually is.

Hint: It is not a country, unlike say the US and China...It is a union of different countries each of whom retain sovereignty.
It does not have an army because, as yet, the member states have not voted to have an army. It does have many armies - one in each country.

As for not 'growing' - how many more countries would you like to see join the European Union?

What is it not adapting to??

squawker · 04-09-2019 01:03AM

Crypto you maybe a troll, but how do you think that Trump will get this marvelous trade deal through Congress, if there is a no deal and bringing about a hard border in Northern Ireland?

I suppose he could offer to buy the UK when everthing hits the fan

AllGunsBlazing · 04-09-2019 01:05AM

Second referendum - only way draw a line under this.

It's that or spend the next decade tearing themselves to shreds. Ask the electorate the exact same question again - stay or leave.

Nobody that hasn't been vacationing on Mars for the last 3 years can be under any illusion as to what "leave" actually means anymore.

ILoveYourVibes · 04-09-2019 01:41AM

davedanon wrote: »

And why will we be skint?

UK banking is going to take a hint as they will ( i am assuming a hard brexit here) lose the ability to bit on contracts in the EU. Its actually going to hit all their services.

Their bankers will lose the ability to operate in the EU.

That will affect not only the UK banking system but the US banking system too as an offset let alone us.

The value of the Dollar and the Euro will rise as the pound falls. That will affect our exports. Also exchange rates and interest rates are linked. one makes the other move. The higher a currency is valued the higher the interest rates will be. High dollar high interest rates. Less borrowing money available in the banking system. And these trading links are global these days. Plus if the pound plummets then the Dollar or the euro becomes super super strong very very quickly interest rates might rise too quick.

US and EU shares will become very expensive. At the same time the UK might be hit by speculators.

The U.K. is America's fourth-largest export market.

U.S. companies invested $588 billion and employed more than a million people. These companies use it as the gateway to free trade with the 28 EU nations.

People keep saying they might switch to here as we speak English. But so far that has not happened. They have gone to elsewhere in the EU.

Politicians haven't spoken about our failure to catch this brexit migration of companies from the UK.

The main thing i am worried about though is how a strong euro or dollar will affect interest rates.

Calina · 04-09-2019 01:43AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

davedanon wrote: »

I don't even understand what this means.

Washington was a reference to whom it needs to ally with. You do sense that the Trump administration is very much behind the UK.

That's another 5 years for a start.

The US has already made it clear that the cost of a trade deal will be the NHS and especially how much it pays for drugs, and food regulations which will have to be watered down. Geographic food specifications are also up for grabs.

These demands are not the demands of an ally; they are the demands of a predator. The Trump regime is not behind the UK although they are clearly behind Brexit. Also it seems that the US is losing its trade war with China which isn't totally surprising.

Insofaras any meaning can be extracted out of your posts, it seems you may be under researched.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2019 01:48AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU doesn't really grow or adapt.

Oh, for crying out loud. Over 60 years the EU has grown from 6 countries to 28, with commensurate increase in its GDP, vastly outstripping both US and Chinese performances. As for adapting, from a standing start it has created the world's largest and deepest trade block, with the world's largest network of free trade agreements with about 70 non-EU countries, and a single market which is more closely integrated than the US's internal market.

But don't let reality get in the way of your delusions.

ILoveYourVibes · 04-09-2019 01:48AM

Calina wrote: »

The US has already made it clear that the cost of a trade deal will be the NHS and especially how much it pays for drugs, and food regulations which will have to be watered down. Geographic food specifications are also up for grabs.

.

Yeah ..the truth is i dont think that attitude would change with a different president. Or if it did it would only change slightly.

I don't think the dems would be softies if you know what i mean.

Annasopra · 04-09-2019 04:58AM

alchemist33 wrote: »

Bercow fancies himself quite a bit, doesn't he?

Is it me or has been tangoed with fake tan?

Annasopra · 04-09-2019 05:02AM

Voltex wrote: »

I have a feeling Bojo wont get an election...there seems to be cross party agreement to deny the motion!

So if no election and legislation passes banning no deal then theres 4 options
1 Revoke article 50 and stay in the EU
2 Get a new deal
3 Agree on Theresa Mays deal
4 A further extension on seeking a new deal

Annasopra · 04-09-2019 05:10AM

Donnielighto wrote: »

This is playing out as Johnson wants. This forces a delay deal into house of lord's. If it gets filibustered then corbyn alliance holds power to wait out the filibuster. Then either Boris calls an election or corbyn again takes power on the proviso of an election. Either of them goes to EU with delay bill and promise of election. EU agree.

Two scenarios for the election depending on Boris keeping the Tory leadership.

Boris as leader.
Boris turns this into a parliament and eu vs the ordinary man narrative. Tories remain pro Brexit and the rest of the regional, labour and lib dems etc all go on the platform of remain. Brexit party I don't know if they field but if they do they damage boris's chances. Labour or labour alliance win referendum called article 50 revoked. If it's an alliance there may an election called post Brexit issue sorted. If Tories win hard Brexit.

Boris gone, less likely.
Tories get a new anti Brexit leader, split some seats with labour, Brexit party surges. Labour or labour coalition gets power, referendum called and Brexit called off. Tories take a while to recover.

I think Boris stays as leader and loses the election but I think this is his play.

No

The UK has a fixed term parliament law. The government can no longer a general election at a whim. In order to revoke the fixed term parliament law there needs to be a 2/3rds majority of the house of commons. The opposition main parties (labour, lib dem, snp, plaid cymru) are refusing to agree to an election unless the legislation banning no deal brexit gets passed fully.

Annasopra · 04-09-2019 05:12AM

rob316 wrote: »

Ideal scenario. Boris calls a GE wins a majority, ****s the DUP under a bus and takes the WA better worded and this whole affair is done.

Dragging this out till the end of the year is disastrous, the British need to get back to the national agenda.

He needs a 2/3rds majority of the House to call an election.

Annasopra · 04-09-2019 05:17AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Washington was a reference to whom it needs to ally with. You do sense that the Trump administration is very much behind the UK.

Not if the NI peace process is threatened.

gmisk · 04-09-2019 05:34AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Perhaps he meant 'class' in a downtown Abby kind of way as he doffed his forelock to him and offered to shine his shoes?

Mogg was caught on lbc radio saying they wouldn't hold another election with the options for Brexit as they would 'get a different answer' .. very democratic of him. Also on call was a neurologist who was part of the team of consultants for yellow hammer, who stated very clearly yellow hammer was not a worst case scenario, and what level of mortality rate is acceptable to mogg for a hard Brexit and mogg brushed him off as project fear!! Ha ha ha, because he, mogg knows more about medicine than the neurologist asked by the gov for advice??? Shocking. Seriously, the man only cares about his offshore accounts and anyone not the same 'class' are disposable peasants.. and you know, if you can't see this, you deserve what you get when you vote for him..

It's strange that him and a lot of the remain backers are so keen to leave asap...there happens to be new EU legislation coming in January 2020 which covers tax avoidance, money laundering etc.
https://complyadvantage.com/blog/5mld-fifth-anti-money-laundering-directive/

JRM has form
https://inews.co.uk/news/paradise-papers-jacob-rees-mogg-pocketed-520000-offshore-investment-firm/

As does Arron banks
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/15/panama-papers-reveal-offshore-secrets-arron-banks-brexit-backer
Who happened to fund his close friend Nigel Farages leave.eu to the tune of 7.5 millions pounds

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 06:14AM

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

So if no election and legislation passes banning no deal then theres 4 options
1 Revoke article 50 and stay in the EU
2 Get a new deal
3 Agree on Theresa Mays deal
4 A further extension on seeking a new deal

Revoke article 50 or Mays deal will make HK look like a picnic. We don't need that as neighbours.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 06:16AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, for crying out loud. Over 60 years the EU has grown from 6 countries to 28, with commensurate increase in its GDP, vastly outstripping both US and Chinese performances. As for adapting, from a standing start it has created the world's largest and deepest trade block, with the world's largest network of free trade agreements with about 70 non-EU countries, and a single market which is more closely integrated than the US's internal market.

But don't let reality get in the way of your delusions.

Sorry are you trying to equate more stagnant states joining the club to the growth of China in 60 years.

Calina · 04-09-2019 06:25AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

So if no election and legislation passes banning no deal then theres 4 options
1 Revoke article 50 and stay in the EU
2 Get a new deal
3 Agree on Theresa Mays deal
4 A further extension on seeking a new deal

Revoke article 50 or Mays deal will make HK look like a picnic. We don't need that as neighbours.

Threat of violence, much?

Peregrinus · 04-09-2019 06:27AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Revoke article 50 or Mays deal will make HK look like a picnic. We don't need that as neighbours.

I think revoking Article 50 notice is unthinkable unless approved by a referendum, or unless done by a government which has fought and won a general election on a manifesto promise to revke. (And I don't think either of those things are likely to happen.)

May's deal is a different kettle of fish. The only objection to May's deal is that it failed to secure the support of parliament, and that objection obviously disappears if it secures the support of parliament.

Hard Brexiters have to face the fact that they have overplayed their hand here. They secured a narrow victory in a referendum in which people were promised an easy Brexit with a good deal which would keep the UK well-connected to Europe. They have tried to use that to ram through a hard Brexit which bears no relationship to what was offered in the referendum campaign, and they have failed to attempt to build, or even to recognise the need for, public support for the Brexit model they now propose. On the contrary, they have done everything they possibly can to alienate the middle ground, repel moderates, and avoid securing the losers' consent that a successful Brexit needs. And as a result the wheels are now coming off the Brexit project in a painfully public way.

At some point at least some Brexiters are going to reckon that the less-than-perfect Brexit that you can achieve is infintely more valuable than the pure and perfect Brexit that you cannot. If May's deal had been approved before, the UK would now be outside the EU, the pressure would be off, and the UK would have the grace period of transition to have the conversation with itself that it should have had long ago. What do we hope to achieve from Brexit? What is attainable? How do we attain it? And then they could start to work towards that.

This prospect must be attractive when compared with the alternative. Even if the Brexiters succeed in driving through a no-deal Brexit, all this means is that the UK has to face those questions at a time when it is under much greater pressure, both internally and externally, and when it has greatly reduced its capacity to acheive anything of what it might want. No-deal Brexit leaves the UK facing exactly the same challenges as it has faced ever since the Brexit referendum, still with no idea about how it wants to meet them, but now facing those challenges on its knees, with its hands tied behind its back, and wearing a blindfold.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 06:27AM

Calina wrote: »

Threat of violence, much?

Are you saying you don't look at the parliament crushing the peoples views and avoiding the election with concern? I can feel the tension over brexit everytime I go over.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2019 06:34AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Sorry are you trying to equate more stagnant states joining the club to the growth of China in 60 years.

The EU's growth has been political, crypto, as well as economic. Countries join the EU because they perceive the advantage of doing so; joining is invariably followed by signficant economic growth. Can't say I've been noticing many countries clamouring to join China, its impressive growth rate notwithstanding. I wonder why that might be?

Blueshoe · 04-09-2019 06:35AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Are you saying you don't look at the parliament crushing the peoples views and avoiding the election with concern? I can feel the tension over brexit everytime I go over.

What are the chances of them cancelling Brexit?

First Up · 04-09-2019 06:43AM

Peregrinus wrote:

At some point at least some Brexiters are going to reckon that the less-than-perfect Brexit that you can achieve is infintely more valuable than the pure and perfect Brexit that you cannot. If May's deal had been approved before, the UK would now be outside the EU, the pressure would be off, and the UK would have the grace period of transition to have the conversation with itself that it should have had long ago. What do we hope to achieve from Brexit? What is attainable? How do we attain it? And then they could start to work towards that.

That's it. The whole Brexit (and Boris) "strategy" is based around an unshakeable confidence that (despite all evidence to the contrary) the EU can be threatened enough by No Deal to re-open the WA.

Its a massive and (for the UK) disastrous miscalculation but its all they have.

04-09-2019 06:59AM

Entitled arrogant pr1ck

04-09-2019 07:03AM

Basically what everyone will hope for is an election where the DUP are not needed. Labour (Corbyn) wants rid of NI and the Tory Party dont give a fiddler's about it and happily sacrifice it to get out of EU hard.

janfebmar · 04-09-2019 07:06AM

Think how different things could be if SF did not shun democracy and took their seats in parliament.

04-09-2019 07:10AM

janfebmar wrote: »

Think how different things could be if SF did not shun democracy and took their seats in parliament.

This keeps getting trotted out EXCEPT they don't shun democracy, they have a mandate of abstention from their electorate. The nationalists, of NI, only need elect SDLP candidates should they want anything else.

I agree that things would have been so much easier had they been there BUT had they been the party which pushed through a NI only backstop, over the DUP, there would have literally been war.
This needs to come from the London parties (and Scots)

Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

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