Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

manual_man · 03-09-2019 10:59PM

mcmoustache wrote: »

This was a bit of an elephant in the room tonight. Everyone already knew that there were no negotiations worth speaking of but yet the whole tory spin was that they needed the no-deal option on the table to negotiate? I get that they were playing to their brexit constituency but they surely can't think that they're that stupid? Can they?

It’s not stupidity. It’s Negotiations Strategy 101. Take away your strongest negotiating card and then it essentially hands your opponent the reigns and puts you in a position of weakness.

No doubt it’s risky. But honestly is there any other way Brexit is actually going to get done? I kind of doubt it.

I really think most of the opposition are just trying to stop Brexit altogether, they’re just too cowardly to say it. And ultimately that’s why if there’s an election the Conservatives and the Brexit Party will win big - because their mandate is clear - leave with or without a deal. Whereas Labour and Lib Dems will be a mixed mess of those saying they only want to leave with a deal (with the inevitable further delays) and others calling for a second referendum and ultimately trying to undermine the will of the people.

martingriff · 03-09-2019 11:00PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

check the suicide rate in Greece
combine that with German gdp till recent
good man...

Greece suicide rate was down to them going insolvent and needing a bailout and taking drastic action to get back. ALL OF THAT IS DOWN TO THE GREECE PARLIAMENT NOT THE EU. It has no correlation to the German GDP

Panrich · 03-09-2019 11:00PM

Guto Bebb eviscerated Johnson there on BBC News. He says that Johnson cannot be trusted and the conservative party is now only attractive to people who admire Farage and there is no home there any more for traditional conservatives.

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 11:01PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

The EU (insofar as referring to it as such makes sense) have already said an election would be grounds for an extension. They have also said they would renegotiate the WA if the UK's red lines changed. They are not petulant children - if there is a viable expectation that a deal could still be brokered and agreed they will take that chance. And Parliament actually crafting what they want would pretty much guarantee its viability.

As I said I can't see it giving too much and unless the seat arithmetic changes in a more positive way it'll be No Deal because the UK are not shifting on their demands.

Hodors Appletart · 03-09-2019 11:01PM

maitliss said Stewart has stepped down, from where though?

10000maniacs · 03-09-2019 11:01PM

Breaking news, Rory Stewart resigns.

Popeleo · 03-09-2019 11:01PM

According to Newsnight, Rory Stewart has left the bad ship Tory also.

maebee · 03-09-2019 11:02PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leadsom saying rebels will NOT lose whip tonight and will have second chance tomorrow.

Looks like it will be a closer run thing tomorrow.

I doubt it will be a closer run thing tomorrow. They voted against their leader tonight after being told they would lose the whip in doing so. They have to carry their convictions through tomorrow. If they don't, their actions tonight were meaningless.

Spanish Eyes · 03-09-2019 11:02PM

Infini wrote: »

Think the real question is why havent Labour dumped her for being an obious troll and 5th Column, shes little more than a UKIP infiltrator.

Well to be fair, you could ask the same about the ERG. Cannot figure that out myself either.

10000maniacs · 03-09-2019 11:02PM

I hope he goes to the Lib Dems.

Pablo Escobar · 03-09-2019 11:02PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

check the suicide rate in Greece
combine that with German gdp till recent
good man...

So you want us to add the Greek suicide rate to German GDP and that will reveal your cryptic post? Is that what you’re saying?

farmerval · 03-09-2019 11:02PM

Is there any chance that Boris is being ridden by Dominic Cummins? Did Cummins spot his chance to really f**K up Westminster as he always wanted to do and sees Boris as his best chance.
Boris is so desperate to be in power that he's handed over all authority to Cummins, who has ever only really wanted to cause destruction to what most people consider normal functioning Government, what if he has no interest in Boris future career has just seen a golden opportunity of harnessing the moment and Boris desperation to drive the whole lot off a cliff.
Maybe that's the game theory he's been playing.

SharpshooterTom · 03-09-2019 11:03PM

gmisk wrote: »

I'm well aware of where she is from I'm from northern ireland...but why is she still with labour was my point, should she not just move to another party (brexit party probably)?

Kate Hoey is not standing in the next election. She knows her career (certainly within Labour) is done.

martingriff · 03-09-2019 11:04PM

manual_man wrote: »

It’s not stupidity. It’s Negotiations Strategy 101. Take away your strongest negotiating card and then it essentially hands your opponent the reigns and puts you in a position of weakness.

No doubt it’s risky. But honestly is there any other way Brexit is actually going to get done? I kind of doubt it.

I really think most of the opposition are just trying to stop Brexit altogether, they’re just too cowardly to say it. And ultimately that’s why if there’s an election the Conservatives and the Brexit Party will win big - because their mandate is clear - leave with or without a deal. Whereas Labour and Lib Dems will be a mixed mess of those saying they only want to leave with a deal (with the inevitable further delays) and others calling for a second referendum and ultimately trying to undermine the will of the people.

But is not you are forgetting this is the deal just to get out of the EU. If they just have a No-Deal exit and then decide not to pay the bills they have legally signed up to pay that weakens them when they have to start to trade deals with the EU and everyone (well exept the US who have them already over a barrel). They will go how can we trust you now you will stick with a deal and they will look for harsh terms to make sure

Enzokk · 03-09-2019 11:05PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

I hope he goes to the Lib Dems.

Doesn't seem likely, he will not stand in the next election. I suppose he may wait for the Tories to move away from the fringes and rejoin when they have regained their senses.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1169007010790215681?s=20

PropJoe10 · 03-09-2019 11:05PM

I'm becoming quite the fan of the voice of reason in the house, the Father of the House. Another superb speech on the current state of the Conservative Party and the Brexit situation from earlier. Not behind the couch in ripping into the right-wing populists taking over the Tories either:

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/ff02f7f6-014a-4a8c-9ef7-bd2cd9986e53?in=20:15:28

10000maniacs · 03-09-2019 11:05PM

maebee wrote: »

I doubt it will be a closer run thing tomorrow. They voted against their leader tonight after being told they would lose the whip in doing so. They have to carry their convictions through tomorrow. If they don't, their actions tonight were meaningless.

It will be a much greater than 17 majority tomorrow.

gmisk · 03-09-2019 11:05PM

Popeleo wrote: »

According to Newsnight, Rory Stewart has left the bad ship Tory also.

Seems to be he won't be standing at the next election.
It's a shame I actually think he would make a decent PM

is_that_so · 03-09-2019 11:05PM

farmerval wrote: »

Is there any chance that Boris is being ridden by Dominic Cummins? Did Cummins spot his chance to really f**K up Westminster as he always wanted to do and sees Boris as his best chance.
Boris is so desperate to be in power that he's handed over all authority to Cummins, who has ever only really wanted to cause destruction to what most people consider normal functioning Government, what if he has no interest in Boris future career has just seen a golden opportunity of harnessing the moment and Boris desperation to drive the whole lot off a cliff.
Maybe that's the game theory he's been playing.

The last idiot(Varoufakis) to play game theory at this type of level was told not to come back to EU meetings.

LuckyLloyd · 03-09-2019 11:06PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

Step away from the keyboard and get some sleep. Corbyn has zero chance of becoming PM.

We can debate the percentage, but he definitely has a non zero chance of becoming PM. Posts like these are completely terrible and fall way short of the standard expected.

Jelle1880 · 03-09-2019 11:06PM

If a GE is called, would this be the fastest a British PM has lost control over his government ?

AngryHippie · 03-09-2019 11:08PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

am i right

clintons obama: good massive frauds clinton foundation

eu good: caveat umtor. ahhh no Germany checks on de loans not needed

ger: wat merc shud we buy gunter??
Athens: i have ate well 2day. i ate dog food.

wtf did I just read ?

gmisk · 03-09-2019 11:09PM

I had no idea Justine Greening is also going to be leaving as well!
So pretty much the 21 who rebelled were all moderates?

SharpshooterTom · 03-09-2019 11:09PM

Jelle1880 wrote: »

If a GE is called, would this be the fastest a British PM has lost control over his government ?

I think the Tories would win the next election.

Bit cynical · 03-09-2019 11:09PM

farmerval wrote: »

Is there any chance that Boris is being ridden by Dominic Cummins? Did Cummins spot his chance to really f**K up Westminster as he always wanted to do and sees Boris as his best chance.
Boris is so desperate to be in power that he's handed over all authority to Cummins, who has ever only really wanted to cause destruction to what most people consider normal functioning Government, what if he has no interest in Boris future career has just seen a golden opportunity of harnessing the moment and Boris desperation to drive the whole lot off a cliff.
Maybe that's the game theory he's been playing.

Depends how much Cummins was involved before Johnson took office, but what Boris is doing makes a certain amount of sense given Johnson's stated goals: leave on the 31st of next month, deal or no deal.

Enzokk · 03-09-2019 11:09PM

Surely this is unprecedented, how can an advisor confront the leader of the opposition like this?

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1169004516840235014?s=20

They are desperately looking for an election, hoping they can win their majority and do what he wants with the UK, seeing as most reports are that Johnson is lazy and will gladly play at PM while Cummings runs the country.

Jelle1880 · 03-09-2019 11:09PM

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I think the Tories would win the next election.

Perhaps, but I doubt Boris will be in charge then.

That is, if they can find someone to replace him.

Itssoeasy · 03-09-2019 11:10PM

Oh it’s kicking off on virgin media with a conservative MP. He’s not happy that Boris Johnson was called a serial liar.

Spanish Eyes · 03-09-2019 11:10PM

Popeleo wrote: »

According to Newsnight, Rory Stewart has left the bad ship Tory also.

I am not one bit surprised. Whatever your views are on UK party politics he struck me as someone who was quite honest in his views. Good to see someone with the courage of their convictions. When I heard him being interviewed I knew (drama bugle sound), that UK had lost a great potential leader.

I think he will go far in time myself, but what do I know. The current crop are a disaster.

Quin_Dub · 03-09-2019 11:11PM

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I think the Tories would win the next election.

They'll have the most seats more than likely, but they won't "Win".

Projections from a few days ago had them losing 5-7 seats from current levels

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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