Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia · 02-09-2019 12:14AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I haven't seen any confirmation of that yet.

The Yellowhammer leak was claimed to be genuine but this article says that:

The new administration that’s about 30 seconds old and couldn’t possibly have properly formulated detailed plans never mind have such revolutionary new ideas funded, procured and ready to deploy in 2 months time

Mister Know It Not · 02-09-2019 12:15AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long does it take to search an empty lorry?

Depends on what's inside it.

PropJoe10 · 02-09-2019 12:15AM

briany wrote: »

I believe Dominic Grieve has already been threatened with deselection by his local constituency. Given his relative outspokenness on Brexit, his chances of holding his seat are pretty low, so he doesn't have much to lose by voting his conscience.

Nah. Ken Clarke is the same, retiring at the next election I believe. Nothing left to do but vote with his conscience which is what Clarke has always done anyway.

Absolutely mad time in British politics. I literally can't wait for the Commons sitting on Tuesday!

Akrasia · 02-09-2019 12:18AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

No, I said:

The company I work for imports goods and materials from the EU and I have spoken to them to ask about any difficulties they anticipate. These are working hauliers.

Working haulers do not necessarily know the consequences of changes to Britain’s access to the single market, or the consequences of Britain ripping up every EU agreement en masse with nothing to replace them on Halloween 2019. Working haulers are in for a very rude awakening, especially if they are self employed contractors who get paid per job and not by the hour

Water John · 02-09-2019 12:18AM

Well King Charles 1 as you know, was imprisoned and executed by Parliament.

Akrasia · 02-09-2019 12:20AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long does it take to search an empty lorry?

A lot longer than it takes when the lorry can just drive straight off the ferry without having to be searched at all

maebee · 02-09-2019 12:29AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I'm taking that with a pinch of salt.. Sky News is notorious for its rabid anti-Brexit line and the last I heard, the Government were prepared to wave lorries through if necessary.

None of our hauliers has expressed any concern at present.

ITV is also rabid anti-Brexit?

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-01/supply-chain-concerns-amid-warnings-of-two-day-delays-at-dover/

Strazdas · 02-09-2019 12:40AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long does it take to search an empty lorry?

Long enough I would say. We're not talking 15 seconds or something - the lorry would have to queue up with all the others, the driver present papers to Customs and then opens up the back for inspection.

An 'empty lorry' sounds fine in theory, but not when there are thousands of lorries to be checked in a single day.

ThePanjandrum · 02-09-2019 12:51AM

Akrasia wrote: »

Working haulers do not necessarily know the consequences of changes to Britain’s access to the single market, or the consequences of Britain ripping up every EU agreement en masse with nothing to replace them on Halloween 2019. Working haulers are in for a very rude awakening, especially if they are self employed contractors who get paid per job and not by the hour

They are large companies that I am talking about and (like us) they are members of the Road Hauliers Association.

Rain Ascending · 02-09-2019 01:19AM

The provenance of the Yellowhammer document is generally regarded to be good. You can dispute whether or not the analysis it contains is correct, but it has been dated to early August, based on the throughput numbers it gives for Dover-Calais. These are actually more optimistic than figures given earlier in the year because of improved facilities at Calais and an apparent agreement to prevent any truck with incorrect paperwork from boarding at Dover. The UK government hasn't disputed this dating -- they've merely described the document as "out of date", which doesn't mean much.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

They are large companies that I am talking about and (like us) they are members of the Road Hauliers Association.

I'd be curious to know what they are basing that opinion on, given that up until very recently, most industry associations were gagged by NDAs and therefore not in a position to share government plans with their members. And it is important to note that in theory, there is a lot a government could do to ensure that critical supplies, food and medicine got through in a timely manner -- but the cost of doing so would be to severely impede trade of non-critical items. These kinds of trade-offs, in a severely delay-sensitive system like Dover-Calais, have not been discussed openly.

fash · 02-09-2019 02:35AM

Water John wrote: »

Source? Again you're wrong, it was updated about one month ago.

He is aware that it is new, it was repeatedly proved to him yet it repeats the lie- he is begging deliberately dishonest

02-09-2019 06:32AM

The official page is up and the public campaign has started apparently.

https://www.gov.uk/brexit

I'm looking at the how to export goods from UK part and my brain is starting to hurt.

02-09-2019 06:58AM

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

Tacitus Kilgore · 02-09-2019 07:32AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

You're still wrong thankfully, Ireland's not going to get thrown to the dogs by the EU. We're just lucky we're on the side that has a shred of integrity, if we were on the other side we'd be long since screwed over.

swampgas · 02-09-2019 07:33AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

Isn't that where they are right now though? Any country can walk away from an international agreement any time they feel like it, if they are prepared to accept the repercussions. The UK are fighting the backstop because they want to have their cake and eat it: they want access to the EU on their own terms, unconstrained by the GFA. They are trying to limit the repercussions in advance, for when they trash the GFA.

Isn't it better that they renege on their agreements (including the GFA) up front, right now, when we have maximum leverage, rather than after years of pointless wrangling, having agreed a bad deal? That's a hard call to make, but my gut instinct is to face the issues head on. If we kick the can down the road with a bad compromise, because of a lack of political courage, we might live to regret it.

Shelga · 02-09-2019 07:34AM

Why is parliament back tomorrow and not today, a Monday?

Nothing major going on, after all, I suppose.

volchitsa · 02-09-2019 08:15AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

Isn't that pretty much the current situation?

The backstop is only applicable in the absence of another workable solution, a safety net which will allow all the other deals to start simultaneously.

The U.K. are refusing to accept that there needs to be that safety net at all because either 1) they are sure there are solutions available (but they can't actually name them) or 2) because they want to be free to do what they want without any threat of the other deals being rescinded because of that.

You choose.

kuro68k · 02-09-2019 08:42AM

I'm so ashamed, as a Brit, of my government now. Not just the proroguing or the refusal to commit to the rule of law, but the shear cruelty of their immigration policy.

The Guardian is reporting that family reunions for refugees will end on October 31st. That's evil. There is no other word for it. It's nasty and inhumane and pandering to the worst elements of our broken society.

Brexit has broken Britain. It's brought out the worst in people. I despair for my country.

swampgas · 02-09-2019 09:03AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Yep zero sum game from game theory is where we are

The opponent has shown themselves to be completely unreliable, unreasonable and plainly mad. That means compromise choice where both win win is not an option. Only choice for Ireland and EU is the backstop as that maximises our advantage.

But don't forget unlike game theory players there is a giant imbalance between two parties here. Worst case scenario for us is nowhere near as bad as it is for UK.

tl dr UK unlike what they think are not equals to us

Additionally political game theory proponents can go badly wrong if they focus on single stage games, as if Brexit were happening in a vacuum, and forget that in the real world of politics the people you are playing with today are the same ones you played with yesterday and the same ones you will be playing tomorrow - at a nation level anyway.

The key point (from a Brexit POV) is that an organisation like the EU which depends on cooperative strategies has to discourage abusive behaviour from wannabe freeloaders who might try to game the system to their own advantage.

From Wikipedia (my bold):

The most widely studied repeated games are games that are repeated an infinite number of times. In iterated prisoner's dilemma games, it is found that the preferred strategy is not to play a Nash strategy of the stage game, but to cooperate and play a socially optimum strategy. An essential part of strategies in infinitely repeated game is punishing players who deviate from this cooperative strategy. The punishment may be playing a strategy which leads to reduced payoff to both players for the rest of the game (called a trigger strategy). A player may normally choose to act selfishly to increase their own reward rather than play the socially optimum strategy. However, if it is known that the other player is following a trigger strategy, then the player expects to receive reduced payoffs in the future if they deviate at this stage. An effective trigger strategy ensures that cooperating has more utility to the player than acting selfishly now and facing the other player's punishment in the future.

Political strategy in the UK seems be trapped in a winner takes all, divide and conquer mode driven by the FPTP electoral system. If there were more incentive to cooperate at a national level I really think the UK would be better able to navigate its relationship with the EU. But the rest of the EU can't really hang around for the UK to fix a few hundred years of political tradition that is no longer fit for purpose. We are where we are, unfortunately

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 09:13AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

They are large companies that I am talking about and (like us) they are members of the Road Hauliers Association.

So as members, you should be listening to what they say. Things that they have been saying for three years?

lawred2 · 02-09-2019 09:23AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The company I work for imports goods and materials from the EU and I have spoken to them to ask about any difficulties they anticipate. These are working hauliers.

And they've said they have none!?

That's simply not believable.

On any level.

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 09:25AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://japantoday.com/category/business/toyota-won't-build-cars-at-uk-factory-the-day-after-brexit

Toyota planning shut down on Brexit day as they don't know what disruption there will be. But sure feck business to quote current prime minister.

Also fresh leaks (more recent than yellowhammer) claim 48hour delays at Dover
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/02/leaked-no-deal-report-says-lorries-could-face-48-hour-delays-at-dover

The bit I don't understand about these finite, time-limited delays is how they are not forecasted to increase. Unless something fundamental changes, the conditions that can create a 48 hour delay will continue to build that delay continuously.

Igotadose · 02-09-2019 09:32AM

More recent reports leaked: "Irish border after Brexit – all ideas are beset by issues says secret paper"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/irish-border-after-brexit-all-ideas-beset-by-issues

BarryD2 · 02-09-2019 09:34AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

But don't forget unlike game theory players there is a giant imbalance between two parties here. Worst case scenario for us is nowhere near as bad as it is for UK.

What game world are you living in? This is a lose situation for us if Brexit does go ahead. There is an imbalance alright between the economies of the UK and the Republic - their's is much larger

As has been pointed out again and again from the outset, the best result for us is either no Brexit or a very soft one, which latter does not really suit the EU.

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 09:37AM

Igotadose wrote: »

More recent reports leaked: "Irish border after Brexit – all ideas are beset by issues says secret paper"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/irish-border-after-brexit-all-ideas-beset-by-issues

I don't have to read the 'secret' paper to know that. If you don't have SPS checks at the border, you can't have SPS checks. But even more fundamentally, you have farms and businesses that straddle the border now, so unless you build a physical wall a la Trump; through people's houses, farms and businesses, it's as porous as a sieve.

prawnsambo · 02-09-2019 09:41AM

BarryD2 wrote: »

What game world are you living in? This is a lose situation for us if Brexit does go ahead. There is an imbalance alright between the economies of the UK and the Republic - their's is much larger

As has been pointed out again and again from the outset, the best result for us is either no Brexit or a very soft one, which latter does not really suit the EU.

It does actually. A very soft brexit will maintain the UK's membership of the SM, CU or both. Either like Norway or Switzerland or a combination of both. That means that goods flows will be much smoother and seamless than what a hard brexit would cause. And of course would include FoM. And even membership subs. But without Nigel Farage in the EP.

CelticRambler · 02-09-2019 09:49AM

BarryD2 wrote: »

the best result for us is either no Brexit or a very soft one, which latter does not really suit the EU.

What game world are you living in?

The EU's starting point was to have a Brexit that was so soft, it didn't happen. But if there was going to be a Brexit of some kind, the EU laid out the options, increasingly hard, on the "Barnier staircase" as a function of the British demands/red lines.

Britain opted for the kind of softness enjoyed by North Korea, and over the weekend have been publicly stating that that's their default negotiating position.

Enzokk · 02-09-2019 09:49AM

Another minister has hinted that the Government could ignore parliament.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168400431367766017?s=19

So this is not just a slip of one minister but it seems to be the policy.

Then this morning Jacob Rees-Mogg was taking calls and he had no time for experts.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1168432907922358273?s=19

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1168434092611911681?s=19

I saw another tweet about May and which way she could vote. She has a choice, back those that prevented her deal from going through and cost her her job, or back ministers she appointed who backed all her votes on her deal.

Imagine she votes against the government and loses the whip and gets deselected.

ToBeFrank123 · 02-09-2019 09:59AM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe you haven't been paying attention lately?
It's not just the 'Backstop' that needs ditching now (according to the more hardline Tories), it's the entire Withdrawal Agreement.
Plus they already said they aren't paying the divorce bill.

So to summarize here, you want to:
Cave to the Tories on the Backstop, still loose the 42 billion and likely confine the WA agreement to the dustbin.

What's in it for us?

So you and fellow travelers can travel North and South un-hindered?

Actually its you who haven't been paying attention.

The backstop was voted down by Corbyn, ERG and most of the opposition.

If Corbyn had voted for the WA we wouldn't be staring down the barrel of a No Deal.

May's government proposed the backstop and Corbyn was probably the number 1 reason it was voted down, probably in the hope it would cause a general election and he'd become prime minister.

Now Corbyn is going around acting the hero as if he could prevent a No Deal. He had his chance to prevent a No Deal, by voting for the WA and backstop. People forget this. And if the WA was brought back to the HOC in the morning, he'd still vote it down.

What's badly missing from all this, including with people like you, is Real Politick, and not fantasising about something else that's not going to happen such as the HOC voting for the backstop. Its been proven time and again they won't support it - not just the conservatives, but people like Corbyn, a supposed friend of Ireland and as I said the number 1 reason the WA and Backstop didn't get through the HOC.

Zubeneschamali · 02-09-2019 10:07AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

It's talking about the trucks travelling to France, many of which are empty anyway because we import far more goods from the EU than we send there.

So, are UK authorities going to do the sensible thing and have one lane of the Motorway as a queue for empty trucks, and another lane as the 48-72 hour queue for trucks carrying loads?

This would be helpful for Irish goods using the landbridge, as the TIR lorries can just join the empty queue since no checks are needed at Dover or Calais.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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