Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Can't understand why Javid didn't resign when Cummings summarily sacked his SPAD.

He is an afterthought symbolic Muslim in the Cabinet in the eyes of Cummings anyway, albeit Chancellor, so now he may be cowed into doing what Cummings wants with the Exchequer.

I do realise that there has often been tension between no's 10 and 11, but honestly that kind of jackboot firing is not acceptable. I suppose the head of the Civil Service is next.

beggars_bush wrote: »

Johnson has been quite shrewd though

Mention all the things people are worried about - crime, policing, education funding

They've found extra money for schools and next up will be the NHS

It's like they're trying to buy off the middle class voting opposition

You would imagine that to be the case but given the pedigree of recent PMs from the Con Party how much money would you put on him being successful at any of this.

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I said before, Cummings isn't the genius he's made out to be. All they've done is harden attitudes and I doubt they thought they'd have ongoing protests, days after they pulled their little prorogation stunt. Now you have Tory MPs like Rory Stewart openly saying they'll oppose the government and the opposition parties pretty close to unheard of agreement. And all these firings and threats to MPs just look like they're losing control. Smacks of desperation tbh.

The guy is an egomaniac and nowhere near as intelligent as he seems to think he is. It will all end badly for him, an arrogant blowhard out of his depth.

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I said before, Cummings isn't the genius he's made out to be. All they've done is harden attitudes and I doubt they thought they'd have ongoing protests, days after they pulled their little prorogation stunt. Now you have Tory MPs like Rory Stewart openly saying they'll oppose the government and the opposition parties pretty close to unheard of agreement. And all these firings and threats to MPs just look like they're losing control. Smacks of desperation tbh.

perhaps I'm crediting good ole Boris with way too much cunning here I'm of the opinion that many of his actions so far are to provoke the type of reaction we've seen today ...... he needs that so he can row back on the do or die stuff .... and retain as many of the pro-brexit voters as possible while not delivering a Brexit. Its not brinksmanship with the EU, that battle was comprehensively lost almost before it began (as its such a moronic idea) its brinksmanship with misinformed brexit voters brainwashed by UK media for the past 40/50 years.

He's bringing it to a head and hoping to cling on to power as part of the process imo......

if I'm right you will see him soften his position even completely reverse it over the coming weeks in an attempt to get on the right side of this.

amacca wrote: »

perhaps I'm crediting good ole Boris with way too much cunning here I'm of the opinion that many of his actions so far are to provoke the type of reaction we've seen today ...... he needs that so he can row back on the do or die stuff .... and retain as many of the pro-brexit voters as possible while not delivering a Brexit. Its not brinksmanship with the EU, that battle was comprehensively lost almost before it began (as its such a moronic idea) its brinksmanship with misinformed brexit voters brainwashed by UK media for the past 40/50 years.

He's bringing it to a head and hoping to cling on to power as part of the process imo......

if I'm right you will see him soften his position even completely reverse it over the coming weeks in an attempt to get on the right side of this.

But his biggest problem, one that's not easily surmountable is that he doesn't control a majority in parliament (hence the little prorogue adventure). One is just not a majority in any real sense bar the mathematical one. So he has to have an election at some point, the earlier the better. I would have said that his brexity noises would help with taking the clothes off the BP. So if he rows back now, he's done with that cohort. But now he's losing Tory MPs, despite the threats and he's galvanised and united all the opposition. They're even saying Corbyn as interim PM is palatable.

He's screwed it up monumentally.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It's great to see pro democracy protesters on UK streets, at least some recognise that the country is now on a slippery slide into populist fascism

Well, that's interesting because the British Fascists support the idea of a united Europe and campaigned to stay in the European Community in 1975.

In Ireland the major Fascist Party was one of the three founders of Fine Gael, whose views on the EU we know and the National Party wants to remain in the EU.

So which side are the Fascists on?

prawnsambo wrote: »

But his biggest problem, one that's not easily surmountable is that he doesn't control a majority in parliament (hence the little prorogue adventure). One is just not a majority in any real sense bar the mathematical one. So he has to have an election at some point, the earlier the better. I would have said that his brexity noises would help with taking the clothes off the BP. So if he rows back now, he's done with that cohort. But now he's losing Tory MPs, despite the threats and he's galvanised and united all the opposition. They're even saying Corbyn as interim PM is palatable.

He's screwed it up monumentally.

Can you see no way for him to cling on to power and while claiming he wanted to deliver brexit but it simply wasn't possible. (shift blame)

He's the incumbent after all and it was always going to be a fine line to tread becoming PM now, a softening of stance to get any of his own that have strayed back onside....they don't want to vote against their own PM (and it could cost them their position - with no guarantee of getting it back given the even greater ****show this could turn out to be might let him keep that majority and perhaps get support from other quarters if it looks like he would be willing to listen and avert a no deal.........then he sells the some of the brexit crowd on a deal thats essentially the WA with some meaningless bells and whistles added on (maybe just meaningless promises about sovereignty from the man himself)

If I'm incorrect then I suppose he has screwed it up monumentally but I was of the opinion that like him or not he's supremely talented at feathering his own nest and hanging on to said nest.

fash wrote: »

There were some amusing posts by Dmitry Grozoubinski on vague “instructions” - such as the Brexit referendum
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1167321318254993408

I found his reply to this tweet great,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1167327051654692867?s=20

'I'm sorry, the people knew we planned to nationalise Guido and turn it into a government funded art zine for lesbian auto worker union members when they voted for, "Britain to be a bit nicer. "'

As for the plan, I was listening to Remainiacs podcast and Hugo Rifkind was thinking the idea is to bring back a deal from the EU and have a vote on it. Those saying they want to stop no-deal would then be compelled to vote for it because it would be either this deal or no-deal.

I see a couple of flaws with this plan. Firstly it assumes that he can come back with a deal that has a compromise better than the backstop. Then he will have to navigate the numbers in the HoC and the ERG and DUP, which we should remember doesn't like the backstop at all. If the plan is to get enough Labour support, well it would be hard for Labour to back the deal seeing that it will be a harder Brexit deal than May's, Johnson isn't likely to come back with a softer option, so there should be no support on that side.

The other problem is also that his plans could be ruined by parliament if they take control of the agenda and take back control themselves. I am still unclear what he actually wants and what the plan is. I see Johnson in a tighter spot than May, seeing that he has trashed the backstop and still has the same red lines. At least with May she had the WA that she negotiated.

is_that_so wrote: »

EU support is at about 90% in Ireland. Does that make us all fascists?

I'm commenting on the use of Fascist by another poster. People use these terms without realising that attempting to demonise others in this way sometimes means that reality redounds on them.

What can Johnson offer to the EU to promise that any compromise on their part would lead to a deal definitely getting approved?

He has just shown starkly that he fears the HoC and has no confidence in his ability to control it.

The EU already gave a massive compromise to TM and it was met with little more than a shrug and if anything emboldened the Brexiteers to feel they had more to get.

So they run the real risk of offering something and only being seen as a soft touch, both by the UK and in any future trade negotiations (such as with the US).

This is all based on the UK plan of the EU reopening the WA.

is_that_so wrote: »

EU support is at about 90% in Ireland. Does that make us all fascists?

I'm commenting on the use of Fascist by another poster. People use these terms without realising that attempting to demonise others in this way sometimes means that reality redounds on them.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

‘Hard as it is to say now.. I look forward to a United States of Europe, in which the barriers between the nations will be greatly minimised and unrestricted travel will be possible.’ - Churchill

By your perverse brexiter logic Churchill was a fascist?

What would Churchill say about preventing democratic people's representatives from discussing the biggest (self imposed) problem faced by the country in 70 years?

The mask of brexiters has fallen off, what is beneath is no different to what we seen from righwing populist of history. Quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, UK for sure have duck for a prime minister, an unelected duck at that.

That would be a lapse in logic. Your argument form is basically if A then B. B, therefore A.

This same argument form could be used in this way. If I am lesbian then I am human. I am human, therefore I am a lesbian. The opening sentence is true no matter who says it, but if the soeaker is a straight woman or a man, the conclusion is false.

By the way, name an elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Enzokk wrote: »

I found his reply to this tweet great,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1167327051654692867?s=20

'I'm sorry, the people knew we planned to nationalise Guido and turn it into a government funded art zine for lesbian auto worker union members when they voted for, "Britain to be a bit nicer. "'

As for the plan, I was listening to Remainiacs podcast and Hugo Rifkind was thinking the idea is to bring back a deal from the EU and have a vote on it. Those saying they want to stop no-deal would then be compelled to vote for it because it would be either this deal or no-deal.

I see a couple of flaws with this plan. Firstly it assumes that he can come back with a deal that has a compromise better than the backstop. Then he will have to navigate the numbers in the HoC and the ERG and DUP, which we should remember doesn't like the backstop at all. If the plan is to get enough Labour support, well it would be hard for Labour to back the deal seeing that it will be a harder Brexit deal than May's, Johnson isn't likely to come back with a softer option, so there should be no support on that side.

The other problem is also that his plans could be ruined by parliament if they take control of the agenda and take back control themselves. I am still unclear what he actually wants and what the plan is. I see Johnson in a tighter spot than May, seeing that he has trashed the backstop and still has the same red lines. At least with May she had the WA that she negotiated.

That's why I was wondering about a "NI + Free port around car factory backstop" brexit as a final offer.
Picks up on the themes of: free ports, recent Stephen Barclay tweet about "hey how do we ensure frictionless trade in a nothing agreed brexit" and gets rid of NI but not in an obviously the same way manner - so room to spin.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We could do. Perhaps we could start with this https://www.oswaldmosley.com/europe-a-nation/

I am certainly not going to read the dribblings of that nutcase. But just from the title, it's clearly not Europe as an alliance of nations.

Akrasia wrote:

That’s called a trade deal. To negotiate a trade deal they need to accept the withdrawal agreement which includes the backstop as insurance against the UK trying to screw us over on the border

No trade "deal" would allow specific industries to be exempt from customs procedures. A "free zone" or "export processing zone" would need secure geographic boundaries and could only be used for items entering and leaving UK jurisdiction. That effectively means right beside a port. Anything from the zone entering from orbto the UK proper would undergo customs procedures.

If the UK can move the entire auto industry to a secure controlled area it just might help it survive with its current JIT supply chains for re-export.

I wouldn't put money on it.