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Rainfall Warning : Fri 30th / Sat 31st Aug 2019

  • 27-08-2019 07:54PM
    #1
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Models getting to grips with the rainfall potential for Fri /Sat with a long trailing front being drawn up over the country with a wave like feature forming an area of LP on it that could dump a lot of rain perhaps .

    A bit away yet but needing a close watch. All the models showing potential for some hefty falls of rain. the models are changing a bit over the last few runs on where the heaviest rain will fall and when. the charts at this stage are to show a general guidance and will change a bit over the next couple of days. Worth keeping a watch on this one, could lead to spot flooding or some wider areas of flooding.

    Windy also at times especially in coastal areas.

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«1345

Comments

  • #2
    vickers209
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,497 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Need a no thanks button!
    Not ready to say goodbye to summer yet.

    When is the new storm names being realised?


  • #3
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,896 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Latest GFS run treating this as a rain event for the South, East & Midlands. North & West might escape.


  • #4
    John.Icy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,211 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    This coupled with introducing much cooler air for Sat/Sun is an absolute stinker for EP. Such a shame since we've had several decent days since Friday, came too early.


  • #5
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z showing the heaviest rain falling now more towards the W, NW and high ground in the SW.



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  • #6
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,699 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    ECM 12Z showing the heaviest rain falling now more towards the W, NW and high ground in the SW.



    im so fking sick of this summer at this stage.
    fk off weather


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  • #7
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    What the other models are showing at this stage.

    ARPEGE

    oycXgMm.png


    ICON

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    GEM

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    GFS

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  • #8
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,759 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    That totally changed the outlook for us down south in Cork. Really shows how the models are struggling to grip with the system


  • #9
    km79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,546 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Dear Jesus no


  • #10
    bazlers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 858 ✭✭✭bazlers


    km79 wrote: »
    Dear Jesus no

    Roughly what time will the rain hit the midlands? Say Athlone greater area.


  • #11
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    bazlers wrote: »
    Roughly what time will the rain hit the midlands? Say Athlone greater area.

    Timing is difficult to determine at this stage but for the midlands it looks like scattered showers , short spells of rain for a time from early Fri until heavier rain arrives later afternoon for a time and heavier pulse's crossing the country in the early hours of Sat morning.

    This could change either way, heavier or weaker or shift track a bit but I think we are starting to see what it will more or less look like come Fri / Sat.

    Not exceptional but a fair amount on top of a wet spell just gone by.

    Connacht / Donegal possibly seeing 20 to 40 or 50mm in 24 hrs , more on higher ground.


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  • #12
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    IMO Latest ARPEGE 18Z showing about 50mm in 24hrs in the W up to about 07.00 Sat morning. A yellow weather alert more than likely and close enough to an Orange weather warning. High end yellow at the moment probably, Galway maybe Orange . Will see tomorrow's charts.

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  • #13
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO

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  • #14
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,618 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

    Rain will turn heavy and persistent on Friday and Friday night bringing the risk of localised flooding. Rainfall totals of 30-50mm are expected during the period, higher in mountainous areas.

    Valid: Friday 30 August 2019 06:00 to Saturday 31 August 2019 06:00


  • #15
    ronnie3585
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,677 ✭✭✭ronnie3585


    It's been one hell of a wet August in the west of Ireland:(


  • #16
    Supercell
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,809 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Could do with it here in Loughlinstown, 8th day in a row with no measurable rainfall so far, my garden veggies need it.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/


  • #17
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Supercell wrote: »
    Could do with it here in Loughlinstown, 8th day in a row with no measurable rainfall so far, my garden veggies need it.

    Careful now looking for rain!!!!! 😂


  • #18
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Totals needed for the rest of this August for these stations to reach 200mm.

    Valentia: 23.7
    Claremorris: 24.6
    Newport: 31.9
    Knock Apt: 32.2
    Mt. Dillon: 37.1

    New Moon



  • #19
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup wetter than the majority of Winter months. And yet it was 26c on my thermometer on August 3rd. What a false dawn.


  • #20
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Latest ECM 12Z.

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    Total accumulation

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    High tide Galway ( Spring tide )

    Wind probably NW'y , fresh but not too strong, Pressure about 10014 hPa. Probably a lot of run off water from Fri / early Sat into a high tide, don't know if this will cause any concern. Maybe some more enlightened natives of Galway might have a better idea ?

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  • #21
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    EURO4 way out in front again, definitely a trend that it is inclined to over do it whilst ICON can be quite conservative in its predicted totals.

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  • #22
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1167053871027560453?s=20


  • #23
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Wonderful..

    Said conveyor belt is already up and running here, pouring rain all evening


  • #24
    Hooter23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Strange how most of these systems seem to run up the west coast the majority of the time...the storm tracks take the same route too...we are in the perfect position out in the atlantic to get the worst of it


  • #25
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,044 ✭✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Puts the tin hat on a poor summer in the West:(


  • #26
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,699 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Puts the tin hat on a poor summer in the West:(

    we fkin need de tin hat due to rain


  • #27
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    MÉ warning removed.


  • #28
    monty_python
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,686 ✭✭✭monty_python


    Not a drop of rain yet in the south west beara peninsula


  • #29
    Mobhi1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭Mobhi1


    Just heard a few drops of rain on the roof here in Glasnevin.


  • #30
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Warning back, Limerick and Cork removed.


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  • #31
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,249 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nothing much more than a gravity defying drizzle here and unless it perks up later, can't see this amounting to much in this part of Galway at least. Maybe something a bit heavier later on this evening though as what is looking like a pretty sharp front moves in:

    O4pDaxr.png

    New Moon



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