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Leaf 40 ex-demo - rapid charging

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    #122
    liamog
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,850 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    KCross wrote: »
    What will change by then that will bring it down?

    There are already economies of scale there in relation to battery production.

    The only thing that can really bring the price down is competition and all the new entrants are coming in at similar money.

    And then the elephant in the room which is that incentives wont last forever... already on the slide in the UK!

    Right now there is zero reasons for a manufacturer to sell an EV other than demand. From 2020 manufacturers have to reduce their fleet emissions. Each 1g CO2 per km costs them €95 per vehicle should. Every zero emission vehicle counts twice when calculating the average. If you sell 2,000,000 Vehicles and reduce your emissions by 7.5g by selling 200,000 EVs you can avoid €1.4 Billion in fines.

    To me that sounds like a great reason to start pricing EVs at a lower level to sell to the masses.


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    #123
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,666 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    liamog wrote: »
    Right now there is zero reasons for a manufacturer to sell an EV other than demand. From 2020 manufacturers have to reduce their fleet emissions. Each 1g CO2 per km costs them €95 per vehicle should. Every zero emission vehicle counts twice when calculating the average. If you sell 2,000,000 Vehicles and reduce your emissions by 7.5g by selling 200,000 EVs you can avoid €1.4 Billion in fines.

    To me that sounds like a great reason to start pricing EVs at a lower level to sell to the masses.
    +1
    The conspiracy nut within me suggests that this is the reason for "delays" currently


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    #124
    Mike9832
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    liamog wrote: »
    Right now there is zero reasons for a manufacturer to sell an EV other than demand. From 2020 manufacturers have to reduce their fleet emissions. Each 1g CO2 per km costs them €95 per vehicle should. Every zero emission vehicle counts twice when calculating the average. If you sell 2,000,000 Vehicles and reduce your emissions by 7.5g by selling 200,000 EVs you can avoid €1.4 Billion in fines.

    To me that sounds like a great reason to start pricing EVs at a lower level to sell to the masses.

    1.4 billion is pocket change to the cost of setting up a facility to manufacture 200,000 EV's?

    Plenty of them will take the fines imo or introduce a tiny battery hybrid trickery etc


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    #125
    liamog
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,850 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    ELM327 wrote: »
    +1
    The conspiracy nut within me suggests that this is the reason for "delays" currently

    I agree, all the delays, the current 'premium' pricing model, and the all the announcements of cars due in 2020/21


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    #126
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The Price of the LEaf is mad to be honest, taxpayer funding this extortion. The car companies are milking us !

    600 a month for 3 year PCP with 7K deposit ? mad !


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    #127
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,085 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    liamog wrote: »
    Each 1g CO2 per km costs them €95 per vehicle

    To give people an idea. Many modest modern petrol and diesel cars have CO2 figures of around 110g/km. Presumably the manufactures are passing on these fines to the customers so the price of these cars will go up by €10k :eek:

    And I don't think the currently used CO2 figures for "self charging" hybrids are real life. When they will do a revised WLTP test on these, their prices will shoot up too and any VRT subsidies removed. Very soon nobody will want to buy any of these cars new anymore


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    #128
    Mike9832
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    kennethsmyth wrote: »
    You've added over 1,190 quid in items that are dealer upsells - nothing to do with car!

    Supaguard
    Smart paint repair
    Gap insurance

    Noticed that alright :)

    It's €10,000 too much anyway, no intenion of buying


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    #129
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,085 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    It's €10,000 too much anyway, no intenion of buying

    And that was after the €5,000 discount you got :cool:


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    #130
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,085 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    liamog wrote: »
    Right now there is zero reasons for a manufacturer to sell an EV other than demand. From 2020 manufacturers have to reduce their fleet emissions. Each 1g CO2 per km costs them €95 per vehicle should.

    That sounded pretty shocking to me, €10,000 fine for even a very modest 110g/km car.

    But your figure isn't quit right. It is €95 for every 1g CO2 over the target of 95g/km. From 2021

    So not €10,000 for a 110g/km car, but just €1,500

    And it's an average too. If they sell many cars under the target then they won't have to pay anything for a lot of cars that are over the target either

    Linky


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    #131
    Kramer
    Registered Users Posts: 3,224 ✭✭✭Kramer


    unkel wrote: »
    It is €95 for every 1g CO2 over the target of 95g/km. From 2021

    We're waaaaaay off topic I know, but as an example, the BMW 530e iPerformance PHEV has a WLTP figure of just 49g/km.

    Manufacturers won't have any problems making that 95g/km target, sure it'll only take a clever line of code, or two ;).


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    #132
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    liamog wrote: »
    Right now there is zero reasons for a manufacturer to sell an EV other than demand. From 2020 manufacturers have to reduce their fleet emissions. Each 1g CO2 per km costs them €95 per vehicle should. Every zero emission vehicle counts twice when calculating the average. If you sell 2,000,000 Vehicles and reduce your emissions by 7.5g by selling 200,000 EVs you can avoid €1.4 Billion in fines.

    To me that sounds like a great reason to start pricing EVs at a lower level to sell to the masses.

    Its a fair point but let me throw in an alternate possibility....

    There are other ways to reduce emissions besides investing in BEV's... look at Toyota. No fines on the horizon, already meeting the upcoming emissions requirements AFAIK(?).

    BMW have said they are investing in hybrid and PHEV before BEV. Im not agreeing that that is the way forward, just saying that that is how manufacturers are likely to see things.

    If you have an ICE car with twice the margin of a BEV you might just decide to take the hit on the emissions fines. Selling more BEV's (if you can even get the batteries) might not actually improve your financial situation at all if investing in hybrid's gets you to your target anyway.

    I dont know but they are heavily invested and indebted to ICE.... more hybrid and PHEV is more likely imo with continued high BEV prices because they will be relatively low volume in the overall mix.... even for VAG its only going to hit 10% of their output in 2025 and they are spending billions. The rest are going to be lagging behind that.

    So, while your point makes sense I'm not holding my breath on big price drops until I actually see them. :)


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    #133
    kennethsmyth
    Registered Users Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭kennethsmyth


    So this ex demo, is it priced really well and can you convince the dealer to check state of health through their systems and give a printout?


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    #134
    slave1
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 18,812 Mod ✭✭✭✭slave1


    kennethsmyth wrote: »
    So this ex demo, is it priced really well and can you convince the dealer to check state of health through their systems and give a printout?

    LOL, back on topic, shock, horror.

    Cheers but I have no faith in the Nissan battery report, it's the most vague piece of paper

    My stuff for sale on Adverts inc. outdoor furniture, roof box and EDDI

    My Active Ads (adverts.ie)



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    #135
    liamog
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,850 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    unkel wrote: »
    That sounded pretty shocking to me, €10,000 fine for even a very modest 110g/km car.

    But your figure isn't quit right. It is €95 for every 1g CO2 over the target of 95g/km. From 2021

    So not €10,000 for a 110g/km car, but just €1,500

    And it's an average too. If they sell many cars under the target then they won't have to pay anything for a lot of cars that are over the target either

    Linky

    Sorry if that wasn't clear, but yeah that's how I calculated it.
    Selling zero emission vehicles has a huge impact on the average.

    If I sell 10 cars with an average of 110g/km then my total fine is €14,250. I sell one of those cars as EV instead my average drops to 90g/km (Super Credit means the sub 50g/km car counts twice) and the fine is now €0. In 2021 the credit is 1.67, so the average will be 92.7g/km.


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    #136
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,085 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    So, how much are they looking for? If you're in the market for one and you can get it for thousands less than comparable cars in the UK, I'd just go for it and not worry about the battery (that's warrantied)


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    #137
    kennethsmyth
    Registered Users Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭kennethsmyth


    slave1 wrote: »
    LOL, back on topic, shock, horror.

    Cheers but I have no faith in the Nissan battery report, it's the most vague piece of paper

    :D , I agree I have the report and leafspy really is the only one, however I would have faith that the fast chargers do not seem to be affecting the soh as shown by a previous post of approx 93% soh.

    OP use this issue to your advantage - the nissan leaf is one of the few ev's available readily so you may get a good price


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    #138
    Kramer
    Registered Users Posts: 3,224 ✭✭✭Kramer


    KCross wrote: »
    Its a fair point but let me throw in an alternate possibility....

    There are other ways to reduce emissions besides investing in BEV's... look at Toyota. No fines on the horizon, already meeting the upcoming emissions requirements AFAIK(?).

    BMW have said they are investing in hybrid and PHEV before BEV. Im not agreeing that that is the way forward, just saying that that is how manufacturers are likely to see things.

    If you have an ICE car with twice the margin of a BEV you might just decide to take the hit on the emissions fines. Selling more BEV's (if you can even get the batteries) might not actually improve your financial situation at all if investing in hybrid's gets you to your target anyway.

    I dont know but they are heavily invested and indebted to ICE.... more hybrid and PHEV is more likely imo with continued high BEV prices because they will be relatively low volume in the overall mix.... even for VAG its only going to hit 10% of their output in 2025 and they are spending billions. The rest are going to be lagging behind that.

    So, while your point makes sense I'm not holding my breath on big price drops until I actually see them. :)

    Hammer. Nail. Head.

    100% concur.

    I also agree that these "battery availability" issues are just a ruse to explain their constrained supply & keep the BEV demand/prices artificially high while still chugging out ICE, both petrol & diesel.

    Anyone up for a good Epstein conspiracy next? :D

    Can't add much on the ex-demo Leaf aside from a LeafSpy report on battery deg.


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    #139
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,085 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    KCross wrote: »
    There are other ways to reduce emissions besides investing in BEV's... look at Toyota. No fines on the horizon, already meeting the upcoming emissions requirements AFAIK(?).

    There was talk recently of re-testing "self charging" hybrids to get better real life emissions results. We all know that won't be good for their emissions figures! I mean 77g/km for a Toyota Corolla hybrid. Really?

    A trick around the emissions could be a PHEV with a small (= cheap) battery that is charged before the emissions test but is allowed to be empty after - I think that's what they do now? How else could a 2.2 tonne 500BHP Porsche Panamera have just 64g/km? :pac:


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    #140
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    unkel wrote: »
    There was talk recently of re-testing "self charging" hybrids to get better real life emissions results. We all know that won't be good for their emissions figures! I mean 77g/km for a Toyota Corolla hybrid. Really?

    A trick around the emissions could be a PHEV with a small (= cheap) battery that is charged before the emissions test but is allowed to be empty after - I think that's what they do now? How else could a 2.2 tonne 500BHP Porsche Panamera have just 64g/km? :pac:

    There are suggestions that the new WLTP testing would have an average increase of between 20-25% on the CO2 figure. I bet Toyota will still have little or no fines on that basis.

    They sold 4000+ of those Corolla's already this year in little old Ireland with the majority in that A1 tax bracket!!! Top selling car, of all types, this year.


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    #141
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,085 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    KCross wrote: »
    There are suggestions that the new WLTP testing would have an average increase of between 20-25% on the CO2 figure. I bet Toyota will still have little or no fines on that basis.

    77g C02 + 25% = 96 which means an emissions fine. And that's the Corolla. I'd say the average overall emissions from all Toyotas sold in the EU this year will be higher than this

    And I presume the cut off figure of 95g CO2/km will be dropping in future? Hybrids won't make it without fines.


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    #142
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    unkel wrote: »
    And I presume the cut off figure of 95g CO2/km will be dropping in future? Hybrids won't make it without fines.

    True, it will get progressively harder. They have the PHEV trick after that!


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    #143
    Mike9832
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Mike9832


    KCross wrote: »
    True, it will get progressively harder. They have the PHEV trick after that!

    But that's manual charging :pac:


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    #144
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    But that's manual charging :pac:

    No, its self charging.... you do it yourself!

    Yuu see, everyone misunderstands their ad campaign... they basically mean you put in the fuel yourself ;)


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    #145
    zilog_jones
    Registered Users Posts: 6,641 ✭✭✭zilog_jones


    unkel wrote: »
    There was talk recently of re-testing "self charging" hybrids to get better real life emissions results. We all know that won't be good for their emissions figures! I mean 77g/km for a Toyota Corolla hybrid. Really?

    What, were you expecting something realistic with the NEDC test? The same test that made diesels look so "clean"?

    There's been no talk specifically about hybrids, it is widely known the NEDC is a ball of shyte and has little bearing on reality. *All* new cars sold in the EU since 2017 have to go through the WLTP test cycle which is the new standard for emissions and fuel consumption figures, but we're currently in a "transitionary period" where NEDC or "corrected" NEDC figures can still be used - that ends in September this year.

    The Corolla 1.8 Hybrid (hatchback/TS) does 101 g/km CO2 in the WLTP test. And yes, they'll have to meet a sales-weighted fleet average of no more than 95 g/km based on WLTP figures... but not until after 2021


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    #146
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    zilog_jones wrote: »
    The Corolla 1.8 Hybrid (hatchback/TS) does 101 g/km CO2 in the WLTP test. And yes, they'll have to meet a sales-weighted fleet average of no more than 95 g/km based on WLTP figures... but not until after 2021

    I think you are wrong on that
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110994929&postcount=8

    It looks to me that Toyota are well in advance of the 2021 targets already and even the 2025 targets!

    It will be a decade from now before Toyota have to worry about emissions fines so they have plenty time to further improve their figures and add larger batteries and PHEV's etc.


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    #147
    zilog_jones
    Registered Users Posts: 6,641 ✭✭✭zilog_jones


    Yeah it's not clear what's going to happen after 2021. Like are they still going to perform NEDC tests for new cars after September so they can calculate these averages?

    Throwing larger batteries at non-plugin hybrids isn't going to make them more efficient. They need more PHEVs and ultimately BEVs.


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    #148
    liamog
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,850 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    KCross wrote: »
    I think you are wrong on that
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110994929&postcount=8

    It looks to me that Toyota are well in advance of the 2021 targets already and even the 2025 targets!

    It will be a decade from now before Toyota have to worry about emissions fines so they have plenty time to further improve their figures and add larger batteries and PHEV's etc.

    It's not possible for them to be ahead of their 2025 Target.
    The target requires a fleet reduction of 15% by 2025 and 37.5% by 2030.
    The percentage will be taken from the achieved emissions in 2021. So for example if Toyota hit 89g/km by 2021, they'll need to achieve 75g/km by 2025. It's another reason we may see manufactures game the system up to 2022. You need to be under the your 2020 target, but not too far under.


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    #149
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,096 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    liamog wrote: »
    It's not possible for them to be ahead of their 2025 Target.
    The target requires a fleet reduction of 15% by 2025 and 37.5% by 2030.
    The percentage will be taken from the achieved emissions in 2021. So for example if Toyota hit 89g/km by 2021, they'll need to achieve 75g/km by 2025. It's another reason we may see manufactures game the system up to 2022. You need to be under the your 2020 target, but not too far under.

    I dont think thats how it works.... over to the WLTP thread...
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=111030097&postcount=17


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