Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

reslfj · 13-08-2019 11:50AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

There are actually three of them now. The first was the MV Celine, then the MV Delphine and just recently the MV Laureline. All the same size with over 5Km of load space for RoRo.

The MV Celine and MV Delphine has about 8 km lanes while the MV Laureline has as you write "over 5km" (seem to have 5400 lane meters)

Other shipping companies have announced or already increased their capacity to/from Ireland too.

Lars

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 11:55AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's fantastic.

Really highlights just how we've "overplayed our hand".

We legitimately could starve them. The exports to the UK from Ireland are insane!

You mean stop selling to the UK. I wonder if anyone else on this planet sells food.

J Mysterio · 13-08-2019 11:59AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

That infographic seems to put to rest (the clearly silly) mantra of 'they need us more than we need them'. When scrolling down, you can see the switch from EU exports to UK to UK exports to EU. Massive difference there for the UK.

Some of the items in that list that the UK do not produce at all: very interesting to look at. In the globalised world, we have all gotten very used to access to all sorts of products. Who can forgot the stories our parents told us when they were growing up? Like for instance when it was a 'treat' for your Dad to get an orange. Like an orange is an 'exotic' fruit. Just a reminder in many ways how you get very used to good things and take them for granted. How will the UK cope without the below items? And how much are they willing to pay over the odds for them on ideological grounds? These items will be very expensive in Brexit Britain.

Spinach, aubergines
peaches, nectarines, apricots
sunflower seeds, poppy seeds, mustard seeds, sesame seed
walnuts, pistachios
kiwis, watermelons, grapes, figs, dates
maize, buckwheat
lemons, limes, mandarins, grapefruit, cranberries, mangos
avocados, pumpkins, sweet potatoes
coconuts, pineapples, papaya
soy, lentils, ginger
coffee, cocoa
cocoa

Popeleo · 13-08-2019 11:59AM

brickster69 wrote: »

You mean stop selling to the UK. I wonder if anyone else on this planet sells food.

Of course they do. Although, chlorine is an acquired taste.

Stop moaning ffs · 13-08-2019 12:02PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You mean stop selling to the UK. I wonder if anyone else on this planet sells food.

And you need trade deals to buy and import that food.

Uk Trade deals for food so far? Faroe Islands. If there’s more we don’t seem to have heard about them.

L1011 · 13-08-2019 12:03PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

How a no-deal Brexit threatens your weekly food shop

The Guardian has an excellent infographic that shows the main products where the UK will have problems. I have to say that I was quite surprised to see that 99% of frozen potatoe products are imported from the EU. I would have thought domestic production would be far higher.

Lots of the UKs frozen food products are made in Naas. Could easily be 70% of frozen pizza and a decent figure for frozen potato products

BonnieSituation · 13-08-2019 12:06PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You mean stop selling to the UK. I wonder if anyone else on this planet sells food.

Yeah. that's EXACTLY what I meant. :rolleyes:

Mon dieu

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 12:22PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

And you need trade deals to buy and import that food.

Uk Trade deals for food so far? Faroe Islands. If there’s more we don’t seem to have heard about them.

No you don't. All you have to do is drop tariffs on products you do not produce. As far as i know UK do not produce Watermelon's so what is the point of making the cost of them more by adding tariffs.

If UK is buying frozen chips from somewhere in the EU, it would be a logical for some company to import potatoes from somewhere, make frozen chips and supply the whole nation themselves and cut out the middleman.

InTheShadows · 13-08-2019 12:23PM

People talking about starving the UK because they are implementing the democratic will of the people, ffs. Grow up.

J Mysterio · 13-08-2019 12:24PM

brickster69 wrote: »

No you don't. All you have to do is drop tariffs on products you do not produce. As far as i know UK do not produce Watermelon's so what is the point of making the cost of them more by adding tariffs.

If UK is buying frozen chips from somewhere in the EU, it would be a logical for some company to import potatoes from somewhere, make frozen chips and supply the whole nation themselves and cut out the middleman.

What matters is not UK tariffs on these products, it's the tariffs the UK have to pay on them to import.

Duggie2012 · 13-08-2019 12:25PM

L1011 wrote: »

Lots of the UKs frozen food products are made in Naas. Could easily be 70% of frozen pizza and a decent figure for frozen potato products

judging on that graphic wouldnt the netherlands be screwed on a lot of things. way more than us no??

J Mysterio · 13-08-2019 12:26PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

People talking about starving the UK because they are implementing the democratic will of the people, ffs. Grow up.

Ah, like Priti Patel, Home Secretary, suggested?

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/

reslfj · 13-08-2019 12:27PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

And you need trade deals to buy and import that food.

Uk Trade deals for food so far? Faroe Islands. If there’s more we don’t seem to have heard about them.

The UK needs to export to get the money needed to pay for import. The UK will lose some goods export and very much export of the for the UK all important services.

With a debt/GDP ratio of 85-86% borrowing is not going to be a possibility much longer. This ratio is already a real scare if/when interest rates starts to rise. When the GDP falls as it did in Q2 and will after any Brexit the ratio will go up even without the UK borrowing anymore.

Lars

PS! Germany has a debt/GDP ratio of 60-61%, while the hole EU27 is around 80%

Professor Moriarty · 13-08-2019 12:31PM

reslfj wrote: »

The UK needs to export to get the money needed to pay for import. The UK will lose some goods export and very much export of the for the UK all important services.

With a debt/GDP ratio of 85-86% borrowing is not going to be a possibility much longer. This ratio is already a real scare if/when interest rates starts to rise. When the GDP falls as it did in Q2 and will after any Brexit the ratio will go up even without the UK borrowing anymore.

Lars

PS! Germany has a debt/GDP ratio of 60-61%, while the hole EU27 is around 80%

Ireland's is 65%. Only saying.

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 12:32PM

Popeleo wrote: »

Of course they do. Although, chlorine is an acquired taste.

What like EU chlorine washed salad, or the chlorine in swimming pools and tap water. That chlorine ?

Point about that is the buyer buys what he wants to buy. Do you think Mr.Tesco will be at some US chicken farm saying we want to buy xx million tonnes / year and the people seller says you can only buy chlorinated chicken, nothing else ?

Professor Moriarty · 13-08-2019 12:34PM

brickster69 wrote: »

What like EU chlorine washed salad, or the chlorine in swimming pools and tap water. That chlorine ?

Point about that is the buyer buys what he wants to buy. Do you think Mr.Tesco will be at some US chicken farm saying we want to buy xx million tonnes / year and the people seller says you can only buy chlorinated chicken, nothing else ?

To whom should we be a vassal state? The EU or Trump's America? Hmmm....must choose....so hard....

Imreoir2 · 13-08-2019 12:35PM

brickster69 wrote: »

What like EU chlorine washed salad, or the chlorine in swimming pools and tap water. That chlorine ?

Point about that is the buyer buys what he wants to buy. Do you think Mr.Tesco will be at some US chicken farm saying we want to buy xx million tonnes / year and the people seller says you can only buy chlorinated chicken, nothing else ?

Chicken is clorinated in the US to hide poor hygine and safety standards. Even so, rates of food poising in the US is way higher than in the EU. The consumer will what they want to buy, and in the absence of high levels of food safety regulation, they will get sick far more often.

Enzokk · 13-08-2019 12:35PM

Duggie2012 wrote: »

judging on that graphic wouldnt the netherlands be screwed on a lot of things. way more than us no??

Depends on the amount that is of their overall exports though. I believe it was known that we are in for the worst of it, but that Belgium and the Netherlands would suffer as well. That is before you start going to the cheese and wine makers in France or the car makers in Germany.

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 12:37PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

What matters is not UK tariffs on these products, it's the tariffs the UK have to pay on them to import.

And if the tariffs are 0% because they they do not produce those products. What would the UK be paying to import ?

trellheim · 13-08-2019 12:41PM

The big marker for me is the lack of CAA preparation to stand back up all its independent functions that went to EASA.

The EU are refusing to do equivalence discussions until its all sorted out . Since the CAA are obviously expecting to be associate EASA members their lack of work tells you all you need to as its a necessary function in a no-deal world

reslfj · 13-08-2019 12:44PM

Duggie2012 wrote: »

judging on that graphic wouldnt the netherlands be screwed on a lot of things. way more than us no??

NO!!

NL will have a fully functioning SM of 445 million potential customers and some 60+ world class FTA's to redirect their surplus products to.

On the very short yes it will be hurt, but not for long as the Dutch are excellent traders.

The UK has announced lower tariffs for things like pork, butter, but the EU27 will not and can - due to WTO MFN rules - lower their tariffs following a UK 'No Deal' Brexit. UK assembled cars will face a 10% tariff and UK lamb more like 50+%.

Lars

The UK rates has been announced by HMG, but can change
https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-dairy-products

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 12:47PM

brickster69 wrote: »

What like EU chlorine washed salad, or the chlorine in swimming pools and tap water. That chlorine ?

Point about that is the buyer buys what he wants to buy. Do you think Mr.Tesco will be at some US chicken farm saying we want to buy xx million tonnes / year and the people seller says you can only buy chlorinated chicken, nothing else ?

You're making the common mistake of looking at the chlorine as the issue rather than what it hides. Chlorine washing salad leaves is done to reduce bacteria and prolong shelf life. The actual amount is less than what's found in drinking water. The real problem with chlorine washed chicken, isn't the chlorine, it's the unsafe farming and abbatoir practices that increase the likelihood of contamination of the meat. And it's not very effective. One in four US citizens will suffer a food borne illness every year.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 12:53PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

That equates to approx 600 + 600 + 400 = 1,600 container capacity. How does that align with the needs?
What additional resources are the other companies producing?

I did manage to find this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460

It seems to take 1.5 days approx to sail Dublin to Rotterdam so a round trip every 3 days.

Capacity = 1,600 * (365/3) = 194,000

So it would seem Ireland is on schedule at least to lessen the impact of bypassing GB.

One question - do these RoRo ferries taken the tractor units too or just the trailers? The figures quote 'containers' but I assume RoRo would infer the tractor units too.
Is that accounted for in the 190,000 figure from the IFTA or is that a different statistic?

I think a lot of RoRo shipping is done on an unaccompanied basis. I believe this is due to tachograph restrictions. Stuff going to the UK is normally fine on that basis (a lot of NI traffic to the UK goes through Dublin and onwards; driver accompanied).

brickster69 · 13-08-2019 12:56PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Chicken is clorinated in the US to hide poor hygine and safety standards. Even so, rates of food poising in the US is way higher than in the EU. The consumer will what they want to buy, and in the absence of high levels of food safety regulation, they will get sick far more often.

Do you get it ? No one will be forced to buy chlorinated Chicken. Next you will be saying all Beef in America is hormone treated.

volchitsa · 13-08-2019 12:57PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

One question - do these RoRo ferries taken the tractor units too or just the trailers? The figures quote 'containers' but I assume RoRo would infer the tractor units too.
Is that accounted for in the 190,000 figure from the IFTA or is that a different statistic?

On ferries from Ireland to France (perhaps land bridge is the same but I've never noticed it) I've seen several sections filled with just the container sections of transport units. I take it they are picked up by local hauliers on arrival and delivered onwards.

ETA: Prawnsambo has just explained why.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 12:58PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Do you get it ? No one will be forced to buy chlorinated Chicken. Next you will be saying all Beef in America is hormone treated.

You think the US will accede to UK demands for them to meet UK standards?

Lackadaisical · 13-08-2019 01:01PM

On the risk to supply of food products after October 31st on Irish supermarket shelves, the one thing I would say is Ireland is a relatively small and easy to supply market - you’re talking 2 or 3 distribution centers for the largest supermarkets and relatively short supply chains.

It will hugely advantage domestic producers of like for like goods, and there are lots of them. That will actually help mitigate the damage to some of our food exports as domestic consumption of locally produced stuff will, certainly in the short term, increase.

The big multinational brands are just that - multinational and will just begin to route products probably from the Benelux and France. A lot of Benelux products are even already even labeled in English (as well as French and Dutch and often German too).

Some things will either become hard to get or become more expensive, although collapsing sterling may buffer that for a good while.

I would suspect the prospect of a major GBP collapse will take a lot of pressure off Irish retailers on this but on the other side of it, you could see massive disruption in the UK itself and issues with companies folding due to higher costs on their ingredients, so I wouldn’t necessarily rely on that either.

Of the Irish supermarkets chains : Dunnes is very, very resourceful and isn’t likely to be caught short. I don’t see Musgraves having issues either. Both companies operate supermarkets in Spain too which means they have access to supply chains beyond Ireland.

Tesco Ireland is not as attached to the mother ship as people seem to think. They’re also a major player in parts of Europe too so, again they’ve access to alternatives.

Lidl and Aldi are German and global so again, I think they’ll be fine somehow.

We could potentially see major issues for M&S food though. Yet, they’re still investing quite heavily here - new store in limerick just announced so, they must have some kind of contingency ideas.

For non food items, E.g. clothes, electronics, etc, very very little of that, in any retailer here, is made in the UK, so it’s really just a matter of shipping boxes slightly differently and not transiting UK supply chains. The way modern logistics works, that’s not all that complicated as there typically isn’t a load of warehousing steps between the manufacturer and the retail outlet. Items are quite often just produced somewhere and then delivered by a logistics operator via whatever route is most effective and absolutely none of that stuff is time sensitive.

seamus · 13-08-2019 01:01PM

brickster69 wrote: »

And if the tariffs are 0% because they they do not produce those products. What would the UK be paying to import ?

I'm afraid this is naive hand-waving. You're failing to grasp the complexity of how international trade actually works and instead likening it to trading marbles in the playground.

Imagine I make potatoes and John makes potatoes. You buy practically all of your potatoes from me. One day you decide to break contact with me, but because you need potatoes, you don't have time to negotiate with John, you tell him that you'll just take everything he has and pay him what he wants.

Simple, right? Well no.

Because I buy loads of stuff from you. And now that you've decided to cut contact with me I will stop buying stuff from you. I will go to another competitor.

And I also sell other things to you. In response to your decision, I have raised all of the prices - to you only - of the things I sell to you.

In addition to this, John and I are not the only potato producers. All of the other potato producers are super pissed off that you have given special treatment to John and have also decided to stop buying from you and charge extortionate prices on the stuff they sell you.

In your attempt to work out a way to make things really cheap to buy, all you've done is make it really hard to sell the things you produce, and really expensive to buy anything of quality.

MrMusician18 · 13-08-2019 01:03PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Ireland's is 65%. Only saying.

Irish GDP is so heavily distorted by the impact of multinationals that it is now a meaningless number.

Modified GNI is the number we use here now.

volchitsa · 13-08-2019 01:04PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

You think the US will accede to UK demands for them to meet UK standards?

And without EU labelling regulations, how will the consumer know?
We're talking about the country where a Minister for Agriculture fed his three year old daughter a possibly-contaminated beef burger on TV during the Mad Cow disease crisis just to reassure consumers. Possibly wrongly, as it turned out.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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