Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum · 11-08-2019 10:00PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

What I cant figure out is the line about not putting up a border in the event of a no deal, so there will only be a border if Ireland puts it up. Even the (relatively) smarter Brexiteers parrot this line e.g. Jacob Rees Mogg.

But I just cant see how that is compatible with taking control of their borders.

Re: the Taoiseach meeting the Prime Minister, Im guessing he will just restate what has been said before, maybe with some future relationship talk. But the ourpose of meeting is purely goodwill, for Ireland to say at least we tried. I cant see anything else coming of it

How would the UK take control of its borders and still observe the spirit of the Common Travel Area? Does Ireland want to scrap it and the special status of Irish Citizens in the UK to get Brownie points with the EU?

ThePanjandrum · 11-08-2019 10:02PM

Water John wrote: »

There are voices in the HOC saying 'we will block no deal, whatever the cost'.
Some Tory MPs are willing to bring down the Govn't to stop it, not many, but maybe enough.
For some it may be their last duty as public representative.

It's very strange when most of these MPs voted to have a no deal Brexit in the first place.

Leroy42 · 11-08-2019 10:04PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

There are voices in the HOC saying 'we will block no deal, whatever the cost'.
Some Tory MPs are willing to bring down the Govn't to stop it, not many, but maybe enough.
For some it may be their last duty as public representative.

It's very strange when most of these MPs voted to have a no deal Brexit in the first place.

Only if the UK could not agree a deal. Which TM and the cabinet did.

Strazdas · 11-08-2019 10:07PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How would the UK take control of its borders and still observe the spirit of the Common Travel Area? Does Ireland want to scrap it and the special status of Irish Citizens in the UK to get Brownie points with the EU?

The CTA refers solely to the movement of private citizens between the two jurisdiction.

Movement of goods which would require tariffs to be applied post-Brexit and customs checks on the goods is a completely different kettle of fish.

Foghladh · 11-08-2019 10:29PM

swampgas wrote: »

I wonder if there is a sense that the English establishment (or maybe a certain ruling elite within it) feel the need to prove to themselves just how powerful they still are, by doing the same thing they did successfully for centuries: bully, threaten, and oppress their opponents and subjects?

Rules and agreements are for weak countries, for peasants, for the middle classes. The elites and superpowers make rules for others, but don't need to follow them themselves. They feel they should be, literally, above the law. The Bullingdon club is an example of this - they break the rules and norms of society, smash up a restaurant, and even though they might pay for the damage, it is primarily a display of naked power: look at us, we can do what we like, and you can't stop us.

And it feels like this elite are freaking out because they don't rule the roost anymore - the Scots don't know their place, the Irish don't know their place, the French and the Germans want to be treated as equals ... and they really don't like it. The EU is calling the shots and there isn't a damn thing they can do about it.

They scream abuse at their neighbours, and expect them to take it lying down. Any response, even if very mild, such as Donald Tusk's cherry picking tweet, triggers outrage, because it shows that the EU are not supplicating themselves before the mighty empire. How dare they stand up for themselves, don't they know we can destroy them? They are like school-yard bullies who lash out when one of their victims dares to look them in the eye.

The EU has always been the enemy of those who want to live the Imperial dream, as it is based on equality, respect and cooperation. It reduces their status to that of mere mortals, no better nor worse than their neighbours. No wonder they're so desperate not just to leave the EU, but to see it destroyed.

Is it possible that you have a little bit of animosity for England and the British Empire outside of what is actually happening?

ThePanjandrum · 11-08-2019 10:30PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Only if the UK could not agree a deal. Which TM and the cabinet did.

May and her Cabinet were not the UK, nor were they the House of Commons which rejected the deal three times.

Merkel must have regretted the effort to write the deal for May.

Imreoir2 · 11-08-2019 10:31PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How would the UK take control of its borders and still observe the spirit of the Common Travel Area? Does Ireland want to scrap it and the special status of Irish Citizens in the UK to get Brownie points with the EU?

No, we do not want to end the CTA, we did not vote for national self harm on the basis of "controlling our borders". Ending the CTA would earn Ireland no "brownie points" with the EU. Where did you come up with the idea that the EU has a problem with the CTA? Freedom of movement is one of the core principles of the EU, why would they take issue with Ireland having a FOM agreement with a third country?

ThePanjandrum · 11-08-2019 10:35PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The CTA refers solely to the movement of private citizens between the two jurisdiction.

Movement of goods which would require tariffs to be applied post-Brexit and customs checks on the goods is a completely different kettle of fish.

"Taking control of our borders" referred to the movement of people, not of goods.

Water John · 11-08-2019 10:36PM

The only real clue we have from Johnson is his action. That of making Cummings, a true Brexit believer, his right hand man.

briany · 11-08-2019 10:43PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Freedom of movement is one of the core principles of the EU, why would they take issue with Ireland having a FOM agreement with a third country?

I thought that was freedom of movement within the EU. Do any FoM deals exist between 3rd countries and constituent countries on the EU's eastern flank?

Strazdas · 11-08-2019 10:51PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

"Taking control of our borders" referred to the movement of people, not of goods.

For sure, but Vote Leave were thinking in terms of stopping continental Europeans moving to the UK (under EU FoM laws)

Imreoir2 · 11-08-2019 11:01PM

briany wrote: »

I thought that was freedom of movement within the EU. Do any FoM deals exist between 3rd countries and constituent countries on the EU's eastern flank?

There are some small scale examples, the Isle of Man and the UK for one. There may be other examples, but I am not aware of any more significant arangements that I could cite.

The point I was making though is that there is no reason to think that the EU would be fundementally in favour of FOM within the EU but for some reason opposed to it between an EU member and a third country, as the poster suggested.

There are no "brownie points" to be scored with the EU by Ireland ending the CTA agreement.

McGiver · 11-08-2019 11:01PM

ancapailldorcha wrote:

Johnson isn't stupid. He knows that hard Brexit means the end of the UK and the Conservative party. Currently, he's putting on a show for the Brexit faithful in case they waver and defect to the Brexit party. Maintaining the Union is the one thing he has been consistent about caring about, aside from himself of course. To me, it seems as if he's trying to provoke Parliament into overruling him and forcing him to seek an extension. That way he gets to keep playing Prime Minister while somehow playing the outsider despite being from Britain's upper caste. He can continue to playing the staunch Brexiter while he machinates to ditch the DUP via a GE or tries to win some sort of token concessions from Brussels which will fail because it failed for his predecessor, something a historian really should know in my opinion.

What if there Brexit zealots and gutter press turn against him and declare him another heretic Remainer not Brexity enough?

ThePanjandrum · 11-08-2019 11:02PM

Strazdas wrote: »

For sure, but Vote Leave were thinking in terms of stopping continental Europeans moving to the UK (under EU FoM laws)

Agreed, except the idea was controlling, not stopping.

briany · 11-08-2019 11:12PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The point I was making though is that there is no reason to think that the EU would be fundementally in favour of FOM within the EU but for some reason opposed to it between an EU member and a third country, as the poster suggested.

If an EU country (especially one in Schengen) had an FoM deal with a 3rd country, it would mean people from that 3rd country could travel to other parts of the EU. It would be illegal, but it would still be a backdoor open for abuse. I don't think the EU is fundamentally in favour of FoM deals between constituent countries and 3rd countries, but the CTA is at least a bit easier to manage because Ireland is not in Schengen, so UK citizens wouldn't be able to move to other parts of the EU so easily.

ancapailldorcha · 11-08-2019 11:24PM

McGiver wrote: »

What if there Brexit zealots and gutter press turn against him and declare him another heretic Remainer not Brexity enough?

I think this is more likely to be an eventuality rather than a possibility to be honest. The Brexiter press has turned on just about virtually everyone else at this stage.

McGiver · 11-08-2019 11:25PM

ThePanjandrum wrote:

Agreed, except the idea was controlling, not stopping.

Right, so "taking back Control" they have always had and never lost. Just were not arsed to exercise.

Pull another one.

McGiver · 11-08-2019 11:27PM

ancapailldorcha wrote:

I think this is more likely to be an eventuality rather than a possibility to be honest. The Brexiter press has turned on just about virtually everyone else at this stage.

Where does this stop then? Marks FranÃ§ois for PM?

swampgas · 11-08-2019 11:45PM

Foghladh wrote: »

Is it possible that you have a little bit of animosity for England and the British Empire outside of what is actually happening?

I didn't mean to give that impression. As it happens I worked for years in England and have a lot of friends there. I was wondering why there seems to be such anger from certain groups though. Farage might be an outlier in many ways but he represents a certain viewpoint. He loathes the existence of the EU. It's not enough to leave it, he wants it destroyed.

Why the rage and the hostility? What threat is the EU to England, except perhaps as a threat to the imagined dominant position of England in Europe? To repeat, this is from a small but influential minority, not from the English in general.

I'm thinking out loud rather than making any strong claims here. One thing that strikes me over and over again is the strength of the emotion that seems to drive many Brexiteers, and it's mostly anger at something - what? - I don't know.

Imreoir2 · 11-08-2019 11:53PM

briany wrote: »

If an EU country (especially one in Schengen) had an FoM deal with a 3rd country, it would mean people from that 3rd country could travel to other parts of the EU. It would be illegal, but it would still be a backdoor open for abuse. I don't think the EU is fundamentally in favour of FoM deals between constituent countries and 3rd countries, but the CTA is at least a bit easier to manage because Ireland is not in Schengen, so UK citizens wouldn't be able to move to other parts of the EU so easily.

Immigration from non-EU countries is a national competence and is not something the EU has a say in. I am not sure how it works in Schengen but I don't think there is anything stopping any member state setting its own immigration policies up to and including full FOM with a third country.

Strazdas · 12-08-2019 12:17AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think this is more likely to be an eventuality rather than a possibility to be honest. The Brexiter press has turned on just about virtually everyone else at this stage.

Yes, they do love the words "traitor" and "betrayal".

Turning on Johnson (or Cummings or Farage) would be no surprise

trellheim · 12-08-2019 12:36AM

CTA predates EU and so currently post Brexit UK citizens can use FOM in Ireland.

As we are not in Schengen there is no danger to the other EU26 as we have to show passports at the border with the rest of the EU - as is pointed out above.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 12-08-2019 01:01AM

Just a side point. Language can help frame a debate. I don't like that brexiters are called Brexiteers as it gives the impression they are involved in a noble and good fight. Then the people who want to stay in the EU are called remoaners.

I don't think these labels are a fair representation of both viewpoints.

Brexiters are the ones shouting loudest. That's how they won the referendum.

The whole thing is a shambles. Their economy has shrunk this quarter unfortunately. Ireland will be impacted by it. There's a lot of damage done, but they are hellbent on doing even more.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 12-08-2019 01:08AM

The dreaded R word. Recession.

Shrinking UK economy is a Brexit warning.

Peregrinus · 12-08-2019 05:04AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Immigration from non-EU countries is a national competence and is not something the EU has a say in. I am not sure how it works in Schengen but I don't think there is anything stopping any member state setting its own immigration policies up to and including full FOM with a third country.

Schengen countries operate a common visa policy (this being one of the main reason why the UK didn't want to join) so an individual Schengen country couldn't negotiate its own FoM arrangement with a third country.

Peregrinus · 12-08-2019 05:09AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

It's very strange when most of these MPs voted to have a no deal Brexit in the first place.

The Commons has never voted to have a no deal Brexit.

No deal is of course a possible outcome of the A50 process, and the Commons did vote to start the process. But revocation is another possible outcome of the A50 process, as is a deal.

So te Commons has voted for no-deal, in the sense that it has also voted for a deal, and voted to revoke. But not in any more meaningful sense.

Mr.Wemmick · 12-08-2019 05:54AM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

The dreaded R word. Recession.

Shrinking UK economy is a Brexit warning.

Paywalled. Can't read it.

20silkcut · 12-08-2019 07:50AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Commons has never voted to have a no deal Brexit.

No deal is of course a possible outcome of the A50 process, and the Commons did vote to start the process. But revocation is another possible outcome of the A50 process, as is a deal.

So te Commons has voted for no-deal, in the sense that it has also voted for a deal, and voted to revoke. But not in any more meaningful sense.

They did have the chance to take no deal off the table in the indicative votes??
The EU really have to hold firm on allowing Britain to crash out if they are to have any hope of getting soft Tory/remain MPs to take action. These are the people that have to see that the EU means business. Forget about Johnson and the ERG they are gone beyond any sane reasoning. Even the removal of the backstop is not guaranteed to bring them on board.
If there is any sign of softening from the EU or further unconditional/ conditional extensions these wavering MPs will stay dithering into eternity. They are the ones doing the damage at this stage by doing nothing in my opinion.

Peregrinus · 12-08-2019 08:01AM

20silkcut wrote: »

They did have the chance to take no deal off the table in the indicative votes??

No. None of the indicative votes had any effect at all. They weren't intended to. The point was to gauge levels of support among MPs for various different options. MPs voted against a no-deal Brexit by 400 votes to 160, but that in itself doesn't stop the UK leaving without a deal. For that, MPs would have to affirmatively vote for something - either to approve a deal negotiated with the EU, or to revoke A50 notice and halt the whole Brexit process.

20silkcut wrote: »

The EU really have to hold firm on allowing Britain to crash out if they are to have any hope of getting soft Tory/remain MPs to take action. These are the people that have to see that the EU means business. Forget about Johnson and the ERG they are gone beyond any sane reasoning. Even the removal of the backstop is not guaranteed to bring them on board.
If there is any sign of softening from the EU or further unconditional extensions these wavering MPs will stay dithering into eternity.

They can't stay dithering into eternity. Unless they compel Johnson either to revoke A50 notice, or they compel him to seek a further extension and the EU agrees, or unless Johnson changes his mind and does one or other of those things off his own bat, the UK leaves without a deal on 31 October.

VinLieger · 12-08-2019 08:16AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Agreed, except the idea was controlling, not stopping.

Which they already had the ability to do yet successive governments failed to make proper use of the tools available to them

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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