Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell · 11-08-2019 12:56PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It is a fair point to say that when large sectors of the population see themselves as neglected by the leadership that they will gravitate towards a charismatic leader, that is true of Trump and other world leaders who havve played the nationalistic card, it is not true of Johnson though as he was selected by members of the conservative party and not the general population as a whole, he was not elected.

If you want to use a historical reference, Mussolini's ascent to power is a closer analogy as he was also selected as leader without a popular vote.

Well, actually he was. He was elected by popular vote as Mayor of London - not once but twice.

J Mysterio · 11-08-2019 12:58PM

I have a conception that many in the UK might feel that 'the Germans', were predisposed to a Fascist regime. The reality is that - under the right conditions, and with a society in shock - a population can be misled, and coerced into following the wrong path. That is the fundamental point, I think.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-08-2019 01:05PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Hint "Projected" means that the figures are estmated amd not actual, they are IMF ones too.

The last actul figures I saw had the UK fifth, India sixth and France seventh. The figures tend to be produced periodically to minimise short term currency fluctuations.

Sterling has had some long term currency fluctuations with more on the horizon. The 0.2% drop in the economy would have been much worse had it been measured in Euro's or Dollars.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I have no idea what you are quoting there because your link takes me to GDP per Capita but by the look of your figures it's probably GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) whereas the figure that is generally used is nominal GDP.

The button to change from per capita is just below the graph.

nevermind - https://data.oecd.org/chart/5DOu and click on right hand column to sort.

GDP does have its shortcomings though which is why the EU uses GNI to calculate countries' contributions. This reduces hugely the amount that would be paid by such countries as Ireland and Luxembourg although strangely enough the United Kingdom is heavily disadvantaged by it.

Here's the GNI data https://data.oecd.org/chart/5DOv - click on latest to sort.
NB. India and Indonesia are not listed.

China 23 056 802.9
United States 19 872 232.0
Japan 5 514 385.5
Germany 4 437 045.1
Russia 3 438 404.6
Brazil 3 090 659.8
France 3 028 055.6
United Kingdom 2 910 875.9
Italy 2 491 348.5
Mexico 2 367 563.4
Turkey 2 062 716.7

11-08-2019 01:11PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, actually he was. He was elected by popular vote as Mayor of London - not once but twice.

Being elected Mayor of London is not the same as being elected leader of the country.

11-08-2019 01:14PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

It really doesnt matter if he was elected or not tbh, thats incidental to the thrust of the argument. He is born of Brexit.

He was elected Mayor of London before Brexit was a major issue, so he was already a well known figure but don't forget that he was a remainer three years ago.

Professor Moriarty · 11-08-2019 01:15PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, actually he was. He was elected by popular vote as Mayor of London - not once but twice.

I'd fancy my chances against Ken Livingstone.

fash · 11-08-2019 01:22PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I will stop here before I meander too far. I realise these thoughts will prove highly objectionable to some and so I reiterate I am drawing a comparison between Brexit and the ascent of Nazism for illustrative purposes only: how can a nation take such a wayward path with such significant support? It strikes me there are many similarities.

Of concern is that brexit does not solve the drivers that led to brexit - it makes things (economically and socially) worse. The situation will only get worse when brexit happens and they need to look for traitors to explain why the glorious revolution has failed.

trellheim · 11-08-2019 01:22PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He has to come here. One of his team said he’d be doing all the main European capitals. Leo cannot go to London. Optics n all that.

For extreme humour value the next British-Irish council meeting sounds like the ideal meeting place. We are due to host the next one and you cant deny its the right type of forum

Heres the minutes of the last meeting https://www.britishirishcouncil.org/sites/default/files/communiqu%C3%A9s/Thirty%20Second%20Summit%20-%20UK%20-%2028%2006%2019.pdf

J Mysterio · 11-08-2019 01:23PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He was elected Mayor of London before Brexit was a major issue, so he was already a well known figure but don't forget that he was a remainer three years ago.

Three years is a long time in politics. Boris is PM because of his Brexiteer credentials, it cant be argued otherwise. It is also true that he has banged the Brexit drum since the vote result, when he went with the 'incorrect' article. Since that time, he has done his bit to lie, obfuscticate and spread propoganda.

J Mysterio · 11-08-2019 01:30PM

fash wrote: »

Of concern is that brexit does not solve the drivers that led to brexit - it makes things (economically and socially) worse. The situation will only get worse when brexit happens and they need to look for traitors to explain why the glorious revolution has failed.

As mentioned, it will likely be the EU, 'refusing to negotiate' which caused NDB. It can be framed as Versailles - world powers (in this case the EU), conspiring to ensure that the UK is kept down. They can tap the nationalism well again, (untill it is eventually and inevitably exhausted).

The concern is where they go from there. Worst case scenario is they jump straight into the US bed, a country which is also on a dark path, and make UK - EU and UK - Ireland relations (particularly as concerns NI), even worse. A bonfire of standards and regulations !

Sam Russell · 11-08-2019 01:53PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

As mentioned, it will likely be the EU, 'refusing to negotiate' which caused NDB. It can be framed as Versailles - world powers (in this case the EU), conspiring to ensure that the UK is kept down. They can tap the nationalism well again, (untill it is eventually and inevitably exhausted).

The concern is where they go from there. Worst case scenario is they jump straight into the US bed, a country which is also on a dark path, and make UK - EU and UK - Ireland relations (particularly as concerns NI), even worse. A bonfire of standards and regulations !

Let us hope that Nancy Pelosi has our backs.

Strazdas · 11-08-2019 01:54PM

fash wrote: »

Of concern is that brexit does not solve the drivers that led to brexit - it makes things (economically and socially) worse. The situation will only get worse when brexit happens and they need to look for traitors to explain why the glorious revolution has failed.

It's quite shocking the way they are smashing ahead with Brexit, knowing that it is toxic and deeply divisive. You'd have to wonder if there is any emotional intelligence among the Brexiteers. Even the 50p Brexit coin thing is symbolic of the crassness and divisiveness of the issue.

Leroy42 · 11-08-2019 02:02PM

They firmly believe they are right. Just as we think that eventually the UK must come to its senses, they believe that the UK is so important as to be ones that will be proven right.

Yesterday IDS claimed that a mistake the UK had made was to treat the EU as friends and expect the same in return. When in fact the EU had simply treated it like a business negotiation.

They see the US diving in to try to get closer to the UK, part of a bidding war with the EU. Which of you needs and wants us more.

Even the recent interview with the Chancellor about the negative GDP. He blamed it on Q1 stockpiling, caused entirely by the Tory party. With not a hint of an acceptance that the Tories were not massive quarterly fluctuations based on bad decisions.

J Mysterio · 11-08-2019 02:08PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It's quite shocking the way they are smashing ahead with Brexit, knowing that it is toxic and deeply divisive. You'd have to wonder if there is any emotional intelligence among the Brexiteers. Even the 50p Brexit coin thing is symbolic of the crassness and divisiveness of the issue.

The 50p Brexit coin is a handy way for the Exchequer to take in a bit of extra cash as their currency is crashing. Genius really as they will sell the coins for more than they are worth.

Also another nice bit of Brexit propoganda for the gullible to get excited about.

fash · 11-08-2019 02:10PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It's quite shocking the way they are smashing ahead with Brexit, knowing that it is toxic and deeply divisive. You'd have to wonder if there is any emotional intelligence among the Brexiteers. Even the 50p Brexit coin thing is symbolic of the crassness and divisiveness of the issue.

They have to proceed with no deal because there is no deal which they can agree on. Any deal will come with some downsides and there will be a majority opposed to any concrete form of brexit. Hence no deal - the only form of brexit without nuance. Thus even though it is divisive for remainer types, for brexiters it is pure and holy - the holy virgin brexit. As the remainers are divided, (see how no-one is saying "we will stop no deal whatever it takes, whatever the cost"), who cares what they think - uniting leave voters is sufficient.

Water John · 11-08-2019 02:39PM

There are voices in the HOC saying 'we will block no deal, whatever the cost'.
Some Tory MPs are willing to bring down the Govn't to stop it, not many, but maybe enough.
For some it may be their last duty as public representative.

Strazdas · 11-08-2019 03:00PM

fash wrote: »

They have to proceed with no deal because there is no deal which they can agree on. Any deal will come with some downsides and there will be a majority opposed to any concrete form of brexit. Hence no deal - the only form of brexit without nuance. Thus even though it is divisive for remainer types, for brexiters it is pure and holy - the holy virgin brexit. As the remainers are divided, (see how no-one is saying "we will stop no deal whatever it takes, whatever the cost"), who cares what they think - uniting leave voters is sufficient.

They've completely reinvented the narrative though. Elephant in the room is that No Deal represents the total failure of everything that was promised in 2016. Nobody on their side can even admit that Brexit has failed and the British public were sold a pup.

fash · 11-08-2019 03:24PM

Strazdas wrote: »

They've completely reinvented the narrative though. Elephant in the room is that No Deal represents the total failure of everything that was promised in 2016. Nobody on their side can even admit that Brexit has failed and the British public were sold a pup.

Well that is it: either you admit "ha, ha, looks like we were wrong, oops!" or you press forward to a "pristine" no deal and blame those sabotaging the wonderful amazing dream. Considering those selling Brexit were always spivs, there was only ever 1 option.

Strazdas · 11-08-2019 03:38PM

fash wrote: »

Well that is it: either you admit "ha, ha, looks like we were wrong, oops!" or you press forward to a "pristine" no deal and blame those sabotaging the wonderful amazing dream. Considering those selling Brexit were always spivs, there was only ever 1 option.

It's the denial of the failure of Brexit that is the most galling. No Deal is not just "a Brexit outcome". It's the absolute failure of everything that was promised by Vote Leave in 2016.

Having said that, you have millions of Leave voters now claiming they voted for No Deal....lying to themselves in other words. When you're dealing with this level of delusion and lies, perhaps the trashing of the UK economy is the only thing that will snap them out of it.

fash · 11-08-2019 03:48PM

Strazdas wrote: »

When you're dealing with this level of delusion and lies, perhaps the trashing of the UK economy is the only thing that will snap them out of it.

It will only be the historians who will say that. Those who voted for Brexit will die believing in it.

upupup · 11-08-2019 03:55PM

The British Empire has a history of subjugating People.
They started on their own people first...ie royalty,nobles vs peasants.
They then went out into the world with this standard of civilization and really believed that they were better and this is still ingrained in the rich and the poor of the empire..over 50% of the population

They have tried to put the "Eu in their place"/subjugate, but it hasn't worked.
They now have no one to subjugate so they are back to doing it to their own people and this can be seen in BREXIT!.its a cultural thing in the same way we have our own cultural problems but theirs is out of control and it can not be put back in its box.
It needs to run its course and no amount of evidence will change their view(not all but over 50% of the population)

The remainers are now being "subjugated":( and this is why they seem quiet

jimmycrackcorm · 11-08-2019 04:07PM

I'm amused that the Brexiteer cabinet are claiming that they should not be subject to the agreement negotiated under May given their change of cabinet.

It's like a group of underage teenagers trying to buy alcohol from a shop and they send in one guy who gets refused only to try send in a second, all while the shop assistant is watching them outside the window.

greencap · 11-08-2019 04:13PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It's the denial of the failure of Brexit that is the most galling. No Deal is not just "a Brexit outcome". It's the absolute failure of everything that was promised by Vote Leave in 2016.

Having said that, you have millions of Leave voters now claiming they voted for No Deal....lying to themselves in other words. When you're dealing with this level of delusion and lies, perhaps the trashing of the UK economy is the only thing that will snap them out of it.

just too bad theyll take europes economy with them. (lesser extent)
especially us.

J Mysterio · 11-08-2019 04:24PM

Here was an interesting angle in the Irish Times (has been saved in an open tab for a few days!). There are views of several senior Irish ex diplomats here, whose views are all worth looking at, but to quote one from the article:

Britain has always struggled to take Ireland seriously, say Irish ex-diplomats

Through years spent operating at the top of Anglo-Irish relations, Irish ex-diplomat Séan Ó hUigínn detected what he sees as a curious gap in British thinking when dealing with Irish matters.”

Ó hUigínn has good reason to know. One of the most distinguished diplomats of his era, he served as joint secretary of the British-Irish Secretariat in Belfast, established after the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985; led the Anglo-Irish division in the Department of Foreign Affairs; and served as Ireland’s ambassador to five different countries, including the United States.

Speaking to The Irish Times in his Dublin home this week as fears grow of a no-deal Brexit, Ó hUigínn said issues Britain would take seriously in any other context “can be disregarded if it comes with an Irish label”.

Mirroring the attitudes of other senior officials who dealt with British-Irish relations at key moments over the past 40 years, Ó hUigínn, now retired, views Brexit as a policy that “seems unhinged”.

... “The British do not engage very willingly with or about Ireland, ” Ó hUigínn says. “Burke said that the English have only one ambition in relation to Ireland, which is to hear no more about it. And that is still not a bad working maxim if you want to analyse British relations.

“When they have to focus on it, there is another mechanism which comes into play which I would call the Irish anomaly. Something that would be taken very seriously in another context can be disregarded if it comes with an Irish label. The Border is a classic example of this.

“Why didn’t the British focus on the fact that they had an extensive land border with the European Union? The answer is that it was in Ireland. It wasn’t serious.”

An exhibit of this, he argues, were comments made by former UK Brexit secretary David Davis just days after the initial Brexit joint report first containing the backstop, the insurance policy to avoid a hard Border, was signed in December 2017.

Davis told the BBC the backstop was “much more a statement of intent than it was a legally enforceable thing”.

“He gave a very broad wink to the British public,” says Ó hUigínn. “This is Irish stuff. Don’t take it too seriously. And I think there’s a kind of psychological shock among the Tories that the Europeans don’t seem to grasp this fundamental convention.”

briany · 11-08-2019 04:31PM

Strazdas wrote: »

They've completely reinvented the narrative though. Elephant in the room is that No Deal represents the total failure of everything that was promised in 2016. Nobody on their side can even admit that Brexit has failed and the British public were sold a pup.

Brexiteer politicians have successfully wriggled out of every single promise they made in the lead-up to the ref, either by playing with semantics or by blaming the EU and Remain supporters for sabotage.

It's been most helpful to the Brexit side that literature concerning what, exactly, Brexit would look like was so very, very thin on the ground. When the Scottish government set out its independence campaign, it made a 600-page book on what it intended Scottish independence to look like. The Brexiteers distributed a poxy leaflet.

Strazdas · 11-08-2019 04:59PM

briany wrote: »

Brexiteer politicians have successfully wriggled out of every single promise they made in the lead-up to the ref, either by playing with semantics or by blaming the EU and Remain supporters for sabotage.

It's been most helpful to the Brexit side that literature concerning what, exactly, Brexit would look like was so very, very thin on the ground. When the Scottish government set out its independence campaign, it made a 600-page book on what it intended Scottish independence to look like. The Brexiteers distributed a poxy leaflet.

They never expected to win of course. One of the key explainers of the Brexit shambles is that Johnson, Farage, the right wing press etc fully expected the referendum to be lost, hence all the lies.

They've spent the last three years trying to create a narrative of how Brexit is a good thing, even though it was always a terrible idea. This process has failed, so now they have switched to No Deal being a good thing.

briany · 11-08-2019 05:06PM

Strazdas wrote: »

They never expected to win of course. One of the key explainers of the Brexit shambles is that Johnson, Farage, the right wing press etc fully expected the referendum to be lost, hence all the lies.

They've spent the last three years trying to create a narrative of how Brexit is a good thing, even though it was always a terrible idea. This process has failed, so now they have switched to No Deal being a good thing.

Did none of the leading Brexiteers read the polls? It was neck and neck in the run up to the referendum. I'd have been hedging my bets.

Sam Russell · 11-08-2019 05:13PM

briany wrote: »

Did none of the leading Brexiteers read the polls? It was neck and neck in the run up to the referendum. I'd have been hedging my bets.

I think they believed their own lies, and besides it was too late to formulate plans.

They never thought about the border in NI.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-08-2019 05:19PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think they believed their own lies, and besides it was too late to formulate plans.

They never thought about the border in NI.

Most of them thought we are still part of the UK and didn't even know there was a border in my opinion.

Really.

Sam Russell · 11-08-2019 05:23PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Most of them thought we are still part of the UK and didn't even know there was a border in my opinion.

Really.

I think those were too young to vote, or never watched the news from 1969 to 1995. I doubt the 30,000 troops that guarded it were in any doubt about the border.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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