Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

InTheShadows wrote: »

The UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet. They'll be grand

And it used to be the greatest empire. And Rome used to rule the world.

Things change.

kunst nugget wrote: »

The author of that piece was saying if you bought your Euros though a German bank they reverted to DMs in the event of the Euro collapsing.

Exactly.

Here's that (obviously nonsense) piece explaining the paradox of how the Euro's strength is because it's going to break up. People will get great windfalls if they have their Euros in a Frankfurt bank, sothis is maintaining it's strength even though it is failing. It was based on a speech by that renowned financial expert Yanis Varafoukis.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1156338/eu-news-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-gbp-sterling-no-deal-yanis-varoufakis-spt

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Or 10th according to the OECD

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm

China 25 256 694.6
US 20 494 100.0
India 9 460 761.4
Japan 5 414 680.0
Germany 4 456 151.2
Russia 3 531 999.0
Indonesia 3 494 750.2
Brazil 3 237 511.6
France 3 037 360.3
United Kingdom 3 024 525.0
Italy 2 515 781.2
Mexico 2 509 672.6
Turkey 2 296 104.7
Korea 2 071 181.7

Total, Million US dollars, 2018 or latest available

I have no idea what you are quoting there because your link takes me to GDP per Capita but by the look of your figures it's probably GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) whereas the figure that is generally used is nominal GDP.

GDP does have its shortcomings though which is why the EU uses GNI to calculate countries' contributions. This reduces hugely the amount that would be paid by such countries as Ireland and Luxembourg although strangely enough the United Kingdom is heavily disadvantaged by it.

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think those have been superceded by the ones I looked at that said sixth. France had moved past the UK was the headline. It was quite a while ago, so I suspect you're giving a very old ranking.

No, I'm not. The usual figures are UK, France, India. For India to move above France the figures have to be recent. I'll see if I can find them, I think that they were referenced by Reuters.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Simple - John Smith died.

How could I have forgotten him.

As someone paid in sterling, but living in the south, can anyone give me some hope. Lie if you have too.
Every time Boris Johnson opens his mouth it anothe 100 euro pm of my income.

Leroy42 wrote: »

And it used to be the greatest empire. And Rome used to rule the world.

Things change.

Reminds me of a quote from that old movie "The Fall of the Roman Empire"

Narrator: "This was the beginning of the fall of the Roman Empire. A great civilization is not conquered from without, until it has destroyed itself from within."

Yup.

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think you need to talk to your employer. If they go hard brexit on the 31st October, the BoE worst case scenario says sterling takes a 25% hit.

My employer is the dept of education, so no joy talking there. Teaching council here are a pain in terms of recognising qualifications but that is a whole different conversation.

joe40 wrote: »

My employer is the dept of education, so no joy talking there. Teaching council here are a pain in terms of recognising qualifications but that is a whole different conversation.

They are just slow
Get the stuff in and get a job in the south asap

joe40 wrote: »

My employer is the dept of education, so no joy talking there. Teaching council here are a pain in terms of recognising qualifications but that is a whole different conversation.

With the possibility of Sterling taking a crash converting your savings to Euros would be a good start if you havent opened a bank account down south now would be a good time to do so.

Sad thing is the stupidity of Boris and friends is going to screw over decent people like yourself as time progresses. If there's a border poll down the line pointing out how your savings and income were slashed by half their value over 3 years should be at the top of the list of reasons why reunification would be better for all.

Just thinking this morning - and I don't think it's hyperbole - but it's often asked 'how could Hitler come to power when people knew what he was like?'. Well, I guess we are seeing exactly how this can happen, in real time.

Hitler was divisive on his run to power and people opposed him, causing him several hiccups along the way, but he proceeded, banging the nationalist drum and decrying those who did not believe in Germany, and its right to lead in Europe.

At some point, people of influence had a choice of whether to throw their lot in with him or to fight him. Many of course choosing to support him, seeing that their personal circumstances might be better served and allowing themselves to be taken away with false ideology. Brexit is a bit like that.

There is opposition to the No Deal madness, but so many people of influence are going along with it, even people who know it's a bloody stupid idea, just to maintain their little sphere of influence/ power in the machine. Consider the top Tories who 'changed their mind' for a cabinet seat. So, even those who should know better, go along with it for their own sake, but in doing so, bring many ignorants with them.

Now, I'm not saying Johnson is Hitler, and I'm not saying the Tories are Nazi's, but I think the point is illustrative in so far as top politicians and leaders in society can be swept along in supporting a bad idea, and they can bring (a significant) part of the population with them, aided and abetted by lies, ignorance and propoganda

There is no reason to believe Brexit is a good idea in any way, and a No Deal Brexit is clearly the worst outcome imaginable. Yet the UK PM and his full cabinet of hard right Brexiteers are banging the Brexit drum and they have so many believing in them. Their big hook? Nationalism, immigration, 'tyranny of EU', and... Nothing else whatsoever? Facts are cast aside for jingoism.

Cummings is actually akin to Goebbels. He is scheming and ensuring everyone is on message ('undemocratic backstop'). He is ensuring that people who don't believe in Brexit have no influence on government. He is demanding that 'remainer' civil servants be identified and removed from the civil service, keeping the internal ideology of the machine 'pure' and consistent and removing obfuscation and opposition. Of course any UK cabinet members had to agree to No Deal as the price of admission to the top table. Tories are openly talking about the benefits of 'proroguing Parliament' and Johnson is apparently considering ignoring a no confidence motion (a 'night of the long knives' might be a stretch to implement).

Hitler spoke in stark, radical terms on his rise to power also, banging the nationalist drum. I hear it often told that people in the UK dont like to talk about Brexit on the street or at dinner parties, I'm quite certain the same was often true of the Nazi's on their ascent. When the political establishment paint your glorious nation as a victim of an international cabal, people become fervent in their support.

Plan might yet be for No Deal to be framed as the 'UK Versailles Treaty' (when world powers conspired to keep post Nazi Germany down - actually the case in that instance). For sure the UK will be devastated in No Deal and the country will be quite flexible in how it can be reconfigured. Boris just needs a 25 point plan.

I will stop here before I meander too far. I realise these thoughts will prove highly objectionable to some and so I reiterate I am drawing a comparison between Brexit and the ascent of Nazism for illustrative purposes only: how can a nation take such a wayward path with such significant support? It strikes me there are many similarities.

I am also reminded of a quote from Merkel (I think). Paraphrasing, but when asked 'has the world learned from Nazism and WWII?', she replied that we will know once that generation had passed on. They are almost all dead.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It is a fair point to say that when large sectors of the population see themselves as neglected by the leadership that they will gravitate towards a charismatic leader, that is true of Trump and other world leaders who havve played the nationalistic card, it is not true of Johnson though as he was selected by members of the conservative party and not the general population as a whole, he was not elected.

If you want to use a historical reference, Mussolini's ascent to power is a closer analogy as he was also selected as leader without a popular vote.

It really doesnt matter if he was elected or not tbh, thats incidental to the thrust of the argument. He is born of Brexit.