Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

54&56 wrote: »

I'm very confident that anyone who knew for certain what Sterling is going to do between now and Oct 31st isn't posting on this thread, that's for sure!!!

They mightn't have known for certain but if the rhetoric continues (and there is every expectation that it will), Sterling will continue to slide and go into a full blown currency crisis as no deal is cemented at the conservative party conference.

Just because posters may not have the means to bet against Sterling, or the appetite for the risk, doesn't mean that posters cannot see where this is going.

prawnsambo wrote: »

I read somewhere that he didn't anticipate winning the election outright and having to form another coalition with the LibDems. So in what he's pleased to call his mind, he was making a promise that he thought he would never have to keep. But events dear boy, events...

Even if there had been another coalition, I highly doubt that Conservative voters would have forgiven him, or the general party by extension, if he'd let the Lib Dems take Brexit away. With the party haemorrhaging support to UKIP at the time, Brexit was not an issue that was going to go away so easily.

In any case, he mustn't have read any polling data before the 2015 GE, if he thought the LDs were even viable. He and his party had spent that whole term basically castrating the LDs, and they crucially made the LDs renege on a crucial promise around tuition fees, which really hurt them with younger voters. Opinion polls before the 2015 election showed their support in free-fall as opposed to 2010.

prawnsambo wrote: »

I read somewhere that he didn't anticipate winning the election outright and having to form another coalition with the LibDems. So in what he's pleased to call his mind, he was making a promise that he thought he would never have to keep. But events dear boy, events...

Even allowing for his 'pledge', he could have delayed the referendum for a year, changed the wording on the ballot paper, refused to rule out a second referendum etc. He made mistake after mistake after mistake.

He told the UK public the referendum was binding (a barefaced lie), the result would be implemented no matter what and there could be no second referendum....and promptly effed off the moment the result came in.

Strazdas wrote: »

He could have said something like 'I won't hold a second referendum but of course I can't rule out what my successor or future PMs might do'. His arrogance was off the scale.

Exactly. That's pretty much what Cummings was saying even before the vote took place. He doesn't explicitly spell out a remain mechanism in this quote from 2016, but you don't have to travel a great distance to imply it either. Cummings may well be lauded as some sort of mad genius by some westminster insiders, but it shows you he really wasn't up against much when it came down to it.

BAGEHOT: In the event of an Out vote do you think the government would seek to hold another referendum, on the terms of Brexit?

DOMINIC CUMMINGS: I think that is a distinct possibility, yes. It’s obviously not something that we can force. We’re a campaign group. But I think it is perfectly possible that leadership candidates to replace David Cameron will say that they think there are good grounds for a new government team to offer the public a voice on what the deal looks like. And we obviously wouldn’t oppose that, if that’s what senior politicians want to offer. I think there’s a strong democratic case for it. There’s also the issue of the profound loss of trust that the establishment has suffered over the past 20-30 years. All parties have told lies about this subject, whether it’s John Major and David Cameron or Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Nick Clegg. People have repeatedly promised referendums then not held referendums. So given that, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if leadership candidates to replace Cameron said: we need a mechanism so people can have confidence in what we say.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The chancellor of the exchequer has announced millions of 50p brexit coins are to be minted. Truly madly deeply bonkers. All of it.

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1160248095583735808?s=21

There was also one planned for the 29th March. Funny how brexit just seems to eat up money without producing anything at the end. Pretty much Boris Johnson's political life story right there.

maebee wrote: »

:eek: That really reads like an April Fool's joke. Unfeckinbelievable. Most of the comments are hilarious, like this one:-

In the 80s following economic reforms, the UK went from a basket case to one of the most powerful financial centres in the world. In 5 years. That's what the UK can do. And the EU is absolutely terrified of it.

The UK outside of the EU can move at a pace the EU would never ever be capable of. By 2029 the UK will be more powerful, with a GDP that would be approaching the EU. That is what they are trying to prevent. They are trying to hold back British innovation. One of the most powerful forces in the globe.

Just imagine if that turned out to be true?

It would be great for us. We'd be on its doorstep.

It won't though. We'll be on the doorstep of a Nation tearing itself at the seams.

In other brexit related news, the leader elect of UKIP is Richard Braine.

I'll leave you to assess the appropriateness of this selection. I believe it's absolutely perfect.

briany wrote: »

UKIP is the MySpace of the Brexit world. No real reason for its continued existence.

I agree. And no better man to lead it into oblivion than Dick Braine.

Is there realistically any chance that they dont end up with negative growth for another quarter?

The last time was a single dip, I think. Unlikely this time.

VinLieger wrote: »

Is there realistically any chance that they dont end up with negative growth for another quarter?

Yes. There will be replacement stockpiling. That may be enough to hold them in there.

Strazdas wrote: »

Some maniac in the Telegraph this week was arguing how the falling pound was great news for Britain. Even many of the readers were struggling with that one.

There are people, mainly Telegraph readers and contributors, who think they are still a great exporting nation. That isn't reliant on raw material exports. And a falling Pound makes those exports more competitive

Someone may need to remind them about Thatcher and the mines.

L1011 wrote: »

Yes. There will be replacement stockpiling. That may be enough to hold them in there.

I don't think that will be the case. Afaik, all storage is pretty much full up. There have been a few reports about this issue causing problems on an ongoing basis now. So basically stockpiling is done and only normal product flows can be catered for now.

Strazdas wrote: »

Some maniac in the Telegraph this week was arguing how the falling pound was great news for Britain. Even many of the readers were struggling with that one.

Someone should tell that maniac that if it was such great news, the UK government could have deliberately devalued the Pound long ago.