Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

serfboard wrote: »

I think there is a lot of logic in this.

Go to no-deal and call election. This gets rid of the Brexit Party & UKIP. This also gets rid of the Eurosceptics in the Tory party for once and for all because they are now out of the EU.

Now, go back to the EU for an FTA deal. EU says that's grand, but we need EU Citizens rights, the backstop and the bill settled.

Boris says, that's fine no problem. Howls from the Eurosceptics and Farage. Boris' response? You wanted us to be out. We are out. Boris is now in power for five years, and that's all he cares about. Talk of treachery be damned - we said we were going to leave the EU, we have left the EU. That topic is now closed. With our new FTA (same as WA, but never mind about that), plucky little Britain is the country that took on the EU - and won.

It's a bit of a gamble that they'd win an election with a no deal brexit certain. Yes, they'd get the hard core brexit vote, but that's not necessarily a big enough vote to win an election with.

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a bit of a gamble that they'd win an election with a no deal brexit certain. Yes, they'd get the hard core brexit vote, but that's not necessarily a big enough vote to win an election with.

No, but it does unite one side (the brexiteers) while the remainers are still devided, with FPTP that alone could deliver a landslide for Boris even if he only got something like 35% of the electorate.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No, but it does unite one side (the brexiteers) while the remainers are still devided, with FPTP that alone could deliver a landslide for Boris even if he only got something like 35% of the electorate.

The situation could be very chaotic around the day of the general election though. I'm not at all convinced that the mood among Leave voters would be jubilant.....the pound would probably be in freefall once No Deal was certain and all sorts of alarm bells going off.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

For the FTA yes, but the backstop is needed now, not in five years time. If the UK is willing to agree the outstanding issues at the end of November backstop included, I can't see the EU telling them it is too late fort he backstop to be implemented. I seriously think the EU would be more than willing to extend a transition arangement if the UK finally agrees to the the requirements of the WA, even if it comes a few weeks into a no-deal Brexit.

Of course not. But there's no way the UK are gonna do that. Regardless of the desperation. I mean stiff upper lip and all that. Tallyho.

serfboard wrote: »

Indeed, but the whole Cummings/Johnson strategy at the moment is a massive gamble - gambling that they can get the Paddys to break, that they can get those Eurocrats to break, gambling with an election, gambling with the economy, with their currency and on and on ...

I honestly don't think they are that stupid. Granted there are many in cabinet that that doesn't apply to, but Cummings never struck me as stupid. And taking gambles on outsider odds would require a lot of balls and at least a plan B or a hedge. A lot of the bluster and blather seems (to me anyway) to be internally directed. I do believe an election is the end game, but one that straddles B-day 3 would be a gamble too far. Better to direct your megaphones towards the electorate and persuade ALL the leavers that you are their man rather than prove to the more moderate ones that you are definitively not.

There was a chap phoned into LBC this morning who'd clearly bought this "threaten no deal seriously" hokum, hook, line and sinker.

Edit: Here's an article by Robert Peston that at least partially agrees with me. Apparently there is disagreement internally in Number 10 (between Cummiings and Johnson possibly) as to whether the election should be before or after B-day 3.

briany wrote: »

Remember when Tusk said, "Please do not waste this time..."?

Well,

(It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia title card and music)

"The Gang wastes Six Months"

Yes and this never seems to register in UK media, that the government have destroyed any goodwill by willfully ignoring the Agreement to Extend Brexit.
On that basis alone i don't think they should be given another Extension if they ask for one.

The current crop in Government must simply be disaster capitalists, yet i don't remember reading much about this during the run up to pick BoJo.

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

When people say that there are disaster capitalists in the current crop of UK government, how do they think that really looks? What I mean is that when, say, Boris Johnson makes a public speech about how many great opportunities lie in Brexit, and then heads back inside no. 10, does he go to be by himself for a moment and say out loud, "Jesus Christ, that lot out there will believe anything.... Now, where's that investment portfolio?"

Like, are they all consciously thinking, "Sod the country. Let's make some motherf*cking money!"? Are they all corporate nihilists?

Or have they convinced themselves that somehow leaving the EU really will be better for the UK as a whole, but them especially?

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

Only if you believed the EU has as much to lose as the UK. It doesn't.

briany wrote: »

When people say that there are disaster capitalists in the current crop of UK government, how do they think that really looks? What I mean is that when, say, Boris Johnson makes a public speech about how many great opportunities lie in Brexit, and then heads back inside no. 10, does he go to be by himself for a moment and say out loud, "Jesus Christ, that lot out there will believe anything.... Now, where's that investment portfolio?"

Like, are they all consciously thinking, "Sod the country. Let's make some motherf*cking money!"? Are they all corporate nihilists?

Or have they convinced themselves that somehow leaving the EU really will be better for the UK as a whole, but them especially?

There are certainly some in the HoC who would fit that mould. JRM's dad wrote the book on disaster capitalism and there are others who would have a similar outlook. All kinds of talk of Farage making money on the night of the result and even accusations of him conceding early with the view to increasing the return. But you've also got the connection between Bamford (of JCB fame) and Johnson and Priti Patel who seems to be on a special deal with just about anyone with money.

You'd like to think that it's not about money, but it's hard not to get drawn back to the amount of money that's sloshing around in the corridors of power. Just as an example, here's a tweet from Robert Harris (yes, that Robert Harris) that gives a tiny glimpse into this world.

trellheim wrote: »

look at that exchange rate https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1159828167248400384 ... .once you start hitting journalists in the pocket maybe things might change chuckle

The Pound is down 60 percentage points on the dollar in the period that the Tories were in power.
Johnson is chirping on that wages are now going up in the public service. :pac:
But the UK's spending power around the world has diminished drastically since they came to power and is about to get a whole lot worse.
Economic minnow state beckons.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

Your international reputation goes out the window with the steering wheel and that is someting that will take a lot longer to recover than simply agreeing a WA.