Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 08-08-2019 07:55PM

The sting will be taken out of Brexit when they leave. You won't have people outside parliament, it won't be on every news bulletin. Nobody is interested in trade deals.

The actual details of any trade deal will be glossed over, there certainly will not beca running commentary about it.

For the vast majority Brexit will be done on 31st Oct. Of course anybody paying attention understands that the real work actually starts then and that's when the real changes to their lives will start to happen

KildareP · 08-08-2019 07:56PM

20silkcut wrote: »

But I can’t see it going away. If they leave with no deal it will only be the beginning. There will be brexit related news dominating the airwaves for weeks and months as the effects take hold.
If they don’t leave or extend or revoke etc we will have to listen to farage and his type screaming from the rooftops for months and years on end.
It’s hard to see an endpoint in all this. Maybe a decisive second referendum? But that is just not on the horizon.
Can anyone predict a timeline of when brexit will just cease to be an issue?
Already it’s gone on for over half the length of time of world war 2.
I reckon it could at least match that event in duration.
And the aftermath of that took a further 44 /45 years to truly drift into history.

The EU can at least stop listening.

And no deal will (hopefully) sober many minds and show all the Brexiteer nonsense for what it is. Nothing better to calm rabbling than a hard dose of reality.

Because at the moment they still think the EU will break down and give in.

Let them crash out and see the EU is not going to give in.

trellheim · 08-08-2019 08:02PM

20silkcut wrote: »

But I can’t see it going away. If they leave with no deal it will only be the beginning. There will be brexit related news dominating the airwaves for weeks and months as the effects take hold.
If they don’t leave or extend or revoke etc we will have to listen to farage and his type screaming from the rooftops for months and years on end.
It’s hard to see an endpoint in all this. Maybe a decisive second referendum? But that is just not on the horizon.
Can anyone predict a timeline of when brexit will just cease to be an issue?
Already it’s gone on for over half the length of time of world war 2.
I reckon it could at least match that event in duration.
And the aftermath of that took a further 44 /45 years to truly drift into history.

Thats a very interesting point and one I hadnt really considered. Many UK people are currently experiencing Brexit fatigue (if you think its bad for us you should see it over there ).

Many just want to see it done just to move on and are sick of it.

However the point I realized from the above is that almost no matter what option you take (including Revoke A50) it is going to drag on with major effects for several years to come

Charles Babbage · 08-08-2019 08:03PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And older people don't go interailing much.

I am looking forward to qualifying for the discount

https://www.interrail.eu/en/deals/interrail-senior-discounts

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 08:08PM

trellheim wrote: »

Thats a very interesting point and one I hadnt really considered. Many UK people are currently experiencing Brexit fatigue (if you think its bad for us you should see it over there ).

Many just want to see it done just to move on and are sick of it.

However the point I realized from the above is that almost no matter what option you take (including Revoke A50) it is going to drag on with major effects for several years to come

If you see Brexit as a symptom of something then you realise it (Brexit) might end but the underlying issue, the dysfunctional UK (it simply cannot continue to deliver fairly for all it's people) isn't going to solve itself for sometime yet and I don't know if it can.
This 'dysfunction' can be traced back to when the Scottish Indy ref process began. I'm beginning to think Boris and the elite Brexiteers project is really an independent England tbh.

lawred2 · 08-08-2019 08:10PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you see Brexit as a symptom of something then you realise it (Brexit) might end but the underlying issue, the dysfunctional UK (it simply cannot continue to deliver fairly for all it's people) isn't going to solve itself for sometime yet and I don't know if it can.
This 'dysfunction' can be traced back to when the Scottish Indy ref process began.

Continue to deliver fairly?

When did it do that?

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 08:11PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Continue to deliver fairly?

When did it do that?

Perhaps it would have been more apt to say, 'continue the illusion of delivering fairly'.

BluePlanet · 08-08-2019 08:13PM

Leo should have turned BoJo's words against him.

When BoJo says 'the anti-democratic backstop', Leo should pose the suggestion: 'So let us find a method to democratize it'.

For a NI-only backstop it should have been suggested to put it to referendum to the people of NI.
Could also give some level of competence to the North/South Ministerial Council.
All wrapped up in nice flowery language about the GFA etc.

Opportunity missed.

ancapailldorcha · 08-08-2019 08:15PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Leo should have turned BoJo's words against him.

When BoJo says 'the anti-democratic backstop', Leo should pose the suggestion: 'So let us find a method to democratize it'.

For a NI-only backstop it should have been suggested to put it to referendum to the people of NI.
Could also give some level of competence to the North/South Ministerial Council.
All wrapped up in nice flowery language about the GFA etc.

Opportunity missed.

No. Leo's done the right thing. The Brexit dream-turned-nightmare needs to die on its own. Any interference, real or imagined from outside players will only legitimise it in the eyes of the true believers.

You don't attack the enemy when they're cannibalising themselves.

Nody · 08-08-2019 08:18PM

20silkcut wrote: »

Can anyone predict a timeline of when brexit will just cease to be an issue?

21st March 2053

Seriously though we're talking decades. Deals announced, politicians looking to score points, rejoining campaigns to bloom up multiple times (or leave), historical analysis, possible regions breaking away and the celebrations of that etc. It will be around in one way or the other for a very very long time.

trellheim · 08-08-2019 08:24PM

Mark Francois embarassing himself https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1159464448165388288

BonnieSituation · 08-08-2019 08:48PM

trellheim wrote: »

Mark Francois embarassing himself https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1159464448165388288

The colour he goes is definitely my favourite part of Brexit so far. Today.

He really needs to be put out to pasture. He hasn't a notion.

maebee · 08-08-2019 09:01PM

Wise words from Irish actor Cillian Murphy: -

Cillian Murphy has said Ireland cannot be held 'to ransom' over Brexit.

The Peaky Blinders star, who moved home to Ireland from the UK in 2015, said he is happy to be living in Dublin on a "very liberal island that is an outlier."

Speaking to The Guardian about Brexit, he added, "The Good Friday Agreement was predicated on there not being a border and to think you can hold Ireland to ransom, you can't..."

The Cork actor continued, "Listen, if you and I are in a club and there are 28 members of the club and I decided to leave, why would I get preferential treatment? Doesn't make any sense."

"And if Ireland is a member of that club and me leaving undermines their whole set-up and the peace they have, it doesn't make any sense, and it's not equitable or fair and it's because the whole thing was sold on a bunch of misinformation."

Murphy further described Brexit as a "binary choice" with "no nuance" regarding the referendum.

He hits the nail on the head in wondering why the member departing the club should be given preferential treatment.

https://www.independent.ie/entertainment/television/tv-news/cillian-murphy-says-ireland-cannot-be-held-to-ransom-over-brexit-38386167.html

reslfj · 08-08-2019 09:11PM

First Up wrote: »

You underestimate the pragmatism that keeps the EU on track. Frontex oversees the EU's external borders and has dealt with many thorny and sensitive issues (including criminal activity) in many difficult places.

The Irish issue will be handled pragmatically and the fact that we are an island actually simplifies matters as it provides choke points under EU administration.

The Irish border and GFA related stuff is unique. It will get a customised solution. Rest assured of that.

In your dreams.

:D:D

Without the WA ratified absolutely everything is about forcing the UK to accept every word of the WA text - except the transition periods.

No trade deal with anyone but the EU27 can save the UK economy and the UK employment. Nor will the UK political system and government be able to survive.

The SM rules are made in Brussels (by the EU27 Council and Parliament). Very much not in Dublin.

The SM rules are enforced by each member state with oversight from Brussels.
Ships between Ireland and other EU27 member states will not be inspected - No amount of pragmatism counts here at all.

Lars

Leroy42 · 08-08-2019 09:31PM

Does the HoC vote on trade deals?

Roanmore · 08-08-2019 09:42PM

Another Brexiteer caught out. The look on the guys face says it all

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1158876706708643840

First Up · 08-08-2019 09:54PM

reslfj wrote:

The SM rules are enforced by each member state with oversight from Brussels. Ships between Ireland and other EU27 member states will not be inspected - No amount of pragmatism counts here at all.

Oh it counts a great deal. The EU (Commission, Parliament and all 26 other members) are acutely aware of the border conundrum. They have been thoroughly briefed by Irish officials and are sympathetic and fully supportive of Ireland's situation.

The solution (and there will be one, irrespective of what the UK eventually does) will be whatever works best for Ireland and the EU.

Ireland will not be used as a backdoor to the EU for non compliant goods. But neither will we be asked to risk the political and economic progress of the last 20 years by being the EU's border guards.

If that means a bit of give and take on checking paperwork at Irish ports - it will be done, with the assistance and support of Frontex and the whole EU administration.

The EU is well aware that the UK sees Ireland as a bargaining chip. There is not the remotest possibility that they will get to use it.

ath262 · 08-08-2019 10:07PM

Latest update from Tony Connelly on twitter
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569582631399429

McGiver · 08-08-2019 10:08PM

Sam Russell wrote:

He cannot store it, nor can he drink it. So what does he do?

He has to "believe in Brexit more". Or HMG will come and nationalise it.

This is seriously being talked about in the UK right now. Surreal. Every day is a new Peak Brexit, higher than previous day. October is going to be a popcorn time. If only people's livelihoods weren't at stake!

Capt'n Midnight · 08-08-2019 10:09PM

Nody wrote: »

For funzies here's the relevant rates btw; non concentrated milk is 14% (Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter.).

[12.9 EUR/100 kg] [13.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of <= 1%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[17.9 EUR/100 kg] [22.7 EUR/100 kg] [21.8 EUR/100 kg] [18.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 1% but <= 6%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 6% but <= 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[182.8 EUR/100 kg] [110 EUR/100 kg] [109.1 EUR/100 kg] [56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] [183.7 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
That's charged day 1 on a hard brexit but more importantly since UK is not recognized as an competent country for control (takes 6 months minimum as per EU law) all milk has to go through full controls without exceptions so that milk is not moving anywhere anytime soon. To put the above in perspective I know a company that drives cream from Norway to Spain to produce a certain product and then drive the product back up again to be able to offset the Norwegian tariffs and they charge similar enough to EU. That's how much of a difference they make...

One small point. It's not 14% , it's € per 100Kg = cent per Kg

And as Jacob Rees-Mogg Esq. can tell you a litre of milk weighs near enough 1.03 Kg there being 16 fluid ounces to the pound, unless you live in 'merica where they have their own idiocentric system of 'imperial' units. Because doing a trade deal with the US will get mighty confusing unless they use metric.

Anyway the effective tariff is 73% that's instant game-over for those exporting bulk milk southwards.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49272343

At present the average trade price of a litre of British milk is 26p. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, where 19p tariffs could be applied, that price would be pushed up to 45p in the Republic.

prawnsambo · 08-08-2019 10:13PM

First Up wrote: »

Oh it counts a great deal. The EU (Commission, Parliament and all 26 other members) are acutely aware of the border conundrum. They have been thoroughly briefed by Irish officials and are sympathetic and fully supportive of Ireland's situation.

The solution (and there will be one, irrespective of what the UK eventually does) will be whatever works best for Ireland and the EU.

Ireland will not be used as a backdoor to the EU for non compliant goods. But neither will we be asked to risk the political and economic progress of the last 20 years by being the EU's border guards.

If that means a bit of give and take on checking paperwork at Irish ports - it will be done, with the assistance and support of Frontex and the whole EU administration.

The EU is well aware that the UK sees Ireland as a bargaining chip. There is not the remotest possibility that they will get to use it.

And the answer will be a border in the Irish Sea. But no weakening of that position will occur before the UK come begging. So the border will close, the noise from all sectors of the UK economy will do the rest. Why give up your position for nothing? That would be completely stupid.

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 10:15PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Does the HoC vote on trade deals?

Anyone know the answer to this one?

Water John · 08-08-2019 10:21PM

HOC votes on Law and its own procedures.

prawnsambo · 08-08-2019 10:23PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone know the answer to this one?

Unless they impact UK law, they are ratified by government.

LuckyLloyd · 08-08-2019 10:39PM

ath262 wrote: »

Latest update from Tony Connelly on twitter
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569582631399429

Nothing new in that for this thread, but good to see it confirmed that the Irish gov is clearly assessing the situation for what it is.

Capt'n Midnight · 08-08-2019 10:43PM

Water John wrote: »

HOC votes on Law and its own procedures.

And "the constitution"

Since there is no written constitution there is nothing stopping the HoC bypassing or changing whatever thinks it is and then railroading that through the Lords with The Parliament Act.

Technically speaking Parliament could even decide to kill the head of state. Again.

Given that we are in uncharted waters with a the Fixed Term, historic defeats, MPs on both sides ignoring the whip, Proroguing , Bercow using a convention from 1604 and others using the Henry VIII clauses from 1539 anything is possible.

listermint · 08-08-2019 10:44PM

First Up wrote: »

Oh it counts a great deal. The EU (Commission, Parliament and all 26 other members) are acutely aware of the border conundrum. They have been thoroughly briefed by Irish officials and are sympathetic and fully supportive of Ireland's situation.

The solution (and there will be one, irrespective of what the UK eventually does) will be whatever works best for Ireland and the EU.

Ireland will not be used as a backdoor to the EU for non compliant goods. But neither will we be asked to risk the political and economic progress of the last 20 years by being the EU's border guards.

If that means a bit of give and take on checking paperwork at Irish ports - it will be done, with the assistance and support of Frontex and the whole EU administration.

The EU is well aware that the UK sees Ireland as a bargaining chip. There is not the remotest possibility that they will get to use it.

None of this is factual and there is no evidence that small side deals will be done. Which is basically what you've been Hocking for about ten pages now.

Capt'n Midnight · 08-08-2019 10:49PM

listermint wrote: »

None of this is factual and there is no evidence that small side deals will be done. Which is basically what you've been Hocking for about ten pages now.

+1

Yes the EU will allow some unilateral measures, but that's so EU citizens aren't impacted.

Large parts of the UK financial sector are reliant on the EU offering Equivalence to continue trading in the EU.

Even if they get it, and the UK is diverging on from the EU on things like Data Protection, it can be rescinded with 30 days notice.

prawnsambo · 08-08-2019 10:54PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Nothing new in that for this thread, but good to see it confirmed that the Irish gov is clearly assessing the situation for what it is.

I must have missed it, but the rejection of the level playing field provisions is news to me.

jimmycrackcorm · 08-08-2019 11:26PM

trellheim wrote: »

Mark Francois embarassing himself https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1159464448165388288

Am I the only one who thinks that, were I in his position, I'd go through a deed of poll to change my surname to something that's sounds like an old English sheepdog to prove my Brexit sincerity?

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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