Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

KildareP · 08-08-2019 04:42PM

Nody wrote: »

And how do you propose that to be done? What's to stop me from buying a container of chlorinated chicken in NI, drive it over the open border you envision, rebrand it and sell it on in EU? No truck checks allowed for EU bound traffic as it's against the single market regulation. Or heck let's go wild; what's to stop me from buying a truck full of tobacco, reclaim the duty in UK and then sell it on in EU duty free on the black market for a sweet million odd in profit? There WILL be controls at the Irish border and because the "no border controls" was dependent on the WA and UK being compliant to the GFA. If UK goes rouge (no deal) the business in NI is not going to rank high on the things EU will give a damn about to fix; they will be allowed to suffer and the Irish government will support it because the single market for Ireland is way more important. If they want to bitch about that then are welcome to go to their government who put them in that fix in the first place.

Here's an example demonstrating exactly that using an IKEA bed

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/what-an-ikea-bed-tells-us-about-boris-johnson-s-brexit-plan-1.3946883

BonnieSituation · 08-08-2019 04:48PM

First Up wrote: »

The backstop is intended as a temporary arrangement while the permanent arrangements are put in place.

Firstly it's an arrangement because of exceptional circumstances.

Secondly, it's in place in case permanent arrangements AREN'T in place at the end of the 2 year transition period after the UK finally leaves the EU with a deal.

reslfj · 08-08-2019 04:48PM

First Up wrote: »

It demonstrates how arrangements can be made to deal with exceptional situations.

The EU will not make any new special arrangements unless there is absolutely no other way. And even then they will often choose not making any arrangement at all.

The EU27 has e.g. very explicitly said, that the Swiss 100+ deals arrangement will never happen again.

If not for other reasons it is very expensive to have and maintain every separate agreement. The number of special cases and bilateral deals must be kept to the absolute minimum.

Besides the WA is over and done. If the UK can't understand that and does not ratify there will be a 'No Deal' Brexit on November 1.

Lars

Imreoir2 · 08-08-2019 04:50PM

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements.

Who is to make these arangements? Ireland will not make arangements that compromise the rules of the single market, and the EU will not make arangements with the UK that allow for the rules of the single market to apply to the UK in part or in whole for any kind of facilitation, be it local, logical, simple or otherwise. There wont be any mini-deals, or arangements, or facilitations. There will be unilateral measures on the UK side, and unilateral measures on the EU side. Anything that is not in the power of one side or the other to sort out by themselves will remain unsorted and the problems this causes are the consequences we are facing in November if it ends in No-Deal.

reslfj · 08-08-2019 05:03PM

First Up wrote: »

... Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements.

The SM will have no checks between EU countries. Any check is expensive. It's a fundamental core idea of the SM - internal market - that all goods are legal and fully compliant everywhere throughout.

If some goods are compliant (and legal) in Ireland nothing can and nobody should attempt to prevent sending these goods to anywhere within the EU for just the transportation costs (or to CH/EEA if customs is cleared and tariffs paid).

Lars

BluePlanet · 08-08-2019 05:29PM

Britain's membership of the Interrail and EU train travel schemes will continue - just 24 hours after it was announced the UK would leave the project.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-08/decision-to-end-britains-interrail-membership-reversed/

The article doesn't delve into the reasons for the U-Turn.
I would expect Leavers to try and make hay from this (if Britain is actually going to get a better deal out of this).

BluePlanet · 08-08-2019 05:49PM

Liz Truss just tweeted a picture of the UK trade talks delegation meeting their US counter parts.
A picture is worth a thousand words as they say.

One side looks like seasoned, emotionless professionals, the other like naive kids.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1159218950376435712?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Kermit.de.frog · 08-08-2019 05:55PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Liz Truss just tweeted a picture of the UK trade talks delegation meeting their US counter parts.
A picture is worth a thousand words as they say.

One side looks like seasoned, emotionless professionals, the other like naive kids.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1159218950376435712?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

And here is an excellent example of the complete DELUSION summed up in the first reply

https://twitter.com/clv101/status/1159233467286269952

:rolleyes:

Be funny if it wasn't so serious. They are going to be hung, drawn and quartered.

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 05:57PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

And here is an excellent example of the complete DELUSION summed up in the first reply

https://twitter.com/clv101/status/1159233467286269952

:rolleyes:

Be funny if it wasn't so serious. They are going to be hung, drawn and quartered.

I have a feeling that guy in the first reply was being sarcastic...he was wasn't he??? :eek:

amacca · 08-08-2019 06:00PM

If he's not being sarcastic he really is completely delusional.

More like UK will be forced to accept lowering of food standards in a deal under current conditions.

First Up · 08-08-2019 06:02PM

Nody wrote:

And how do you propose that to be done? What's to stop me from buying a container of chlorinated chicken in NI, drive it over the open border you envision, rebrand it and sell it on in EU? No truck checks allowed for EU bound traffic as it's against the single market regulation. Or heck let's go wild; what's to stop me from buying a truck full of tobacco, reclaim the duty in UK and then sell it on in EU duty free on the black market for a sweet million odd in profit? There WILL be controls at the Irish border and because the "no border controls" was dependent on the WA and UK being compliant to the GFA. If UK goes rouge (no deal) the business in NI is not going to rank high on the things EU will give a damn about to fix; they will be allowed to suffer and the Irish government will support it because the single market for Ireland is way more important. If they want to bitch about that then are welcome to go to their government who put them in that fix in the first place.

What do you think they have been building at Dublin, Rosslare and Ringaskiddy? What do you think the lorry park near Dublin Airport is for?

Manifests, Certs of Origin and other paperwork will be checked prior to trucks or cargo being loaded. Single Market regulation won't be an issue.

First Up · 08-08-2019 06:14PM

reslfj wrote:

The SM will have no checks between EU countries. Any check is expensive. It's a fundamental core idea of the SM - internal market - that all goods are legal and fully compliant everywhere throughout.

You underestimate the pragmatism that keeps the EU on track. Frontex oversees the EU's external borders and has dealt with many thorny and sensitive issues (including criminal activity) in many difficult places.

The Irish issue will be handled pragmatically and the fact that we are an island actually simplifies matters as it provides choke points under EU administration.

The Irish border and GFA related stuff is unique. It will get a customised solution. Rest assured of that.

serfboard · 08-08-2019 06:30PM

54&56 wrote: »

Excellent Article on Raab's visit to Canada and how he's being politely received and allowed to bang the drum for closer ties post Brexit etc but in reality Canada are not progressing a FTA with the UK as they can't see why they should when the likeyhood is in a no deal Brexit the UK will lower tariffs anyway. Why pay for something now (a FTA) which you will effectively get FOC without having to reciprocate in just a few weeks time?

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/canadas-brexit-talks-with-the-u-k-there-are-none/

Thanks for posting that. It's a great article written in a very tongue-in-cheek style - well worth a read. Here's one great quote:

Over to Raab. The newly re-minted minister endorsed Freeland’s remarks and threw in kind words about Canada-U.K. cooperation on D-Day. Because otherwise we might forget about that.

D-Day. FFS. WWII references, again.

beggars_bush · 08-08-2019 06:36PM

serfboard wrote: »

Thanks for posting that. It's a great article written in a very tongue-in-cheek style - well worth a read. Here's one great quote:
D-Day. FFS. WWII references, again.

you mean how they sent in the Canadians as cannon fodder?

johnnyskeleton · 08-08-2019 06:46PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Liz Truss just tweeted a picture of the UK trade talks delegation meeting their US counter parts.
A picture is worth a thousand words as they say.

One side looks like seasoned, emotionless professionals, the other like naive kids.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1159218950376435712?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

If they fail to get a deal with the US, the Brexit dream is dead. Any deal, even a bad deal for the UK, is a political imperative for the UK Govt. The US know this but they dont let on they know this because their Consular service doesnt give out leaks of confidential information.

So expect a deal that wholly favours the US, subequently being championed as a success of Brexit

Shelga · 08-08-2019 06:46PM

It just makes... No. Sense. Whatsoever. Purely geographically, why would you cut yourself off from trade with your nearest neighbours in order to pursue trade with countries on the other side of the world or at least Very Very Far Away? Why would you buy more wine from the US and lamb from New Zealand (which they already do) when you can get it less than a hundred miles away in France and Ireland, tariff-free?

Can Brexiters not just push the rubbish about sovereignty and democracy, rather than pretending this lunacy makes any sense whatsoever from a trade point of view?

KildareP · 08-08-2019 06:48PM

Shelga wrote: »

It just makes... No. Sense. Whatsoever. Purely geographically, why would you cut yourself off from trade with your nearest neighbours in order to pursue trade with countries on the other side of the world or at least Very Very Far Away? Why would you buy more wine from the US and lamb from New Zealand (which they already do) when you can get it less than a hundred miles away in France and Ireland, tariff-free?

Can Brexiters not just push the rubbish about sovereignty and democracy, rather than pretending this lunacy makes any sense whatsoever from a trade point of view?

It's too far gone now.

They desperately need something to stick it to the EU, especially the Irish.

fash · 08-08-2019 07:04PM

amacca wrote: »

If he's not being sarcastic he really is completely delusional.

More like UK will be forced to accept lowering of food standards in a deal under current conditions.

He seems to be a naive eco warrior type - I don't see it coming from a particularly brexity viewpoint.

Imreoir2 · 08-08-2019 07:06PM

First Up wrote: »

You underestimate the pragmatism that keeps the EU on track. Frontex oversees the EU's external borders and has dealt with many thorny and sensitive issues (including criminal activity) in many difficult places.

The Irish issue will be handled pragmatically and the fact that we are an island actually simplifies matters as it provides choke points under EU administration.

The Irish border and GFA related stuff is unique. It will get a customised solution. Rest assured of that.

Forgive me, but I am not assured. Your assurances fly in the face of what both the EU and our own government have been saying. There will be no mini-deals, rest assured of that.

ancapailldorcha · 08-08-2019 07:11PM

A small tidbit of good news - the decision to leave the Interrail pass scheme has been reversed after 24 hours:

Britain's membership of the Interrail and EU train travel schemes will continue - just 24 hours after it was announced the UK would leave the project.

Industry body the Rail Delivery Group (RDG) said it renewed talks with Eurail Group, the company running the programmes, following "strong reaction to news of our departure".

They were able to reach an agreement which means Britain "will be remaining part of both the Interrail and Eurail passes".

The tickets allow holders to travel by train across Europe.

Link:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-08/decision-to-end-britains-interrail-membership-reversed/

https://twitter.com/RailDeliveryGrp/status/1159469766035349504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1159469766035349504&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.itv.com%2Fnews%2F2019-08-08%2Fdecision-to-end-britains-interrail-membership-reversed%2F

Professor Moriarty · 08-08-2019 07:13PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A small tidbit of good news - the decision to leave the Interrail pass scheme has been reversed after 24 hours:

Link:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-08/decision-to-end-britains-interrail-membership-reversed/

https://twitter.com/RailDeliveryGrp/status/1159469766035349504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1159469766035349504&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.itv.com%2Fnews%2F2019-08-08%2Fdecision-to-end-britains-interrail-membership-reversed%2F

They backed down because of the public backlash. Just a small taster of what will happen in November if Johnson blunders on.

lawred2 · 08-08-2019 07:19PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

And here is an excellent example of the complete DELUSION summed up in the first reply

https://twitter.com/clv101/status/1159233467286269952

:rolleyes:

Be funny if it wasn't so serious. They are going to be hung, drawn and quartered.

Ah Kermit. That's satire.

lawred2 · 08-08-2019 07:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They backed down because of the public backlash. Just a small taster of what will happen in November if Johnson blunders on.

Probably because a lot of Brexit voters voted to remove foreigners rights and privileges... Not their own.

Mr.Wemmick · 08-08-2019 07:21PM

Shelga wrote: »

It just makes... No. Sense. Whatsoever. Purely geographically, why would you cut yourself off from trade with your nearest neighbours in order to pursue trade with countries on the other side of the world or at least Very Very Far Away? Why would you buy more wine from the US and lamb from New Zealand (which they already do) when you can get it less than a hundred miles away in France and Ireland, tariff-free?

Can Brexiters not just push the rubbish about sovereignty and democracy, rather than pretending this lunacy makes any sense whatsoever from a trade point of view?

The incredulity is everywhere. I have skim-read news, twitter/social media, business reports constantly for the last few days and everywhere is saturated in logical, intelligent discussions to save the UK from danger and all the brexiteers can do is whine and cry at ghosts and made-up, imaginary notions.

Please tell me something is going to give? All I sense is utter disaster if these clowns are allowed to run the show unchallenged.

Professor Moriarty · 08-08-2019 07:22PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Probably because a lot of Brexit voters voted to remove foreigners rights and privileges... Not their own.

And older people don't go interailing much.

BluePlanet · 08-08-2019 07:33PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

If they fail to get a deal with the US, the Brexit dream is dead. Any deal, even a bad deal for the UK, is a political imperative for the UK Govt. The US know this but they dont let on they know this because their Consular service doesnt give out leaks of confidential information.

So expect a deal that wholly favours the US, subequently being championed as a success of Brexit

Would love to be a fly on the wall in those talks.
I hope someone leaks the tape.

KildareP · 08-08-2019 07:35PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

The incredulity is everywhere. I have skim-read news, twitter/social media, business reports constantly for the last few days and everywhere is saturated in logical, intelligent discussions to save the UK from danger and all the brexiteers can do is whine and cry at ghosts and made-up, imaginary notions.

Please tell me something is going to give? All I sense is utter disaster if these clowns are allowed to run the show unchallenged.

Don't see how it can.

The feeling amongst even remainers seems to be just get it done in the belief it will go away then and they'll stop hearing about it.

Like a form of torture, eventually you'll do or say anything just to make it stop.

Which I gather is the way things are also going outside the UK - that it *must* leave on 31st October, any further request for an extension must be declined. I don't think anyone is brave enough over there to push the Revoke button thus 1st Nov will be a clean break for both sides. The EU don't have to listen to them anymore as an ex-member and they can fight amongst themselves until they come to some definite path forward, whatever that might be.

First Up · 08-08-2019 07:43PM

Imreoir2 wrote:

Forgive me, but I am not assured. Your assurances fly in the face of what both the EU and our own government have been saying. There will be no mini-deals, rest assured of that.

I think you might be mis-interpreting what the EU and Irish government are saying.
Nobody is talking about a mini deal (me included).

There's an expression "the genius of and versus the tyranny of or". It applies here.

20silkcut · 08-08-2019 07:45PM

KildareP wrote: »

Don't see how it can.

The feeling amongst even remainers seems to be just get it done in the belief it will go away then and they'll stop hearing about it.

Like a form of torture, eventually you'll do or say anything just to make it stop.

Which I gather is the way things are also going outside the UK - that it *must* leave on 31st October, any further request for an extension must be declined. I don't think anyone is brave enough over there to push the Revoke button thus 1st Nov will be a clean break for both sides. The EU don't have to listen to them anymore as an ex-member and they can fight amongst themselves until they come to some definite path forward, whatever that might be.

But I can’t see it going away. If they leave with no deal it will only be the beginning. There will be brexit related news dominating the airwaves for weeks and months as the effects take hold.
If they don’t leave or extend or revoke etc we will have to listen to farage and his type screaming from the rooftops for months and years on end.
It’s hard to see an endpoint in all this. Maybe a decisive second referendum? But that is just not on the horizon.
Can anyone predict a timeline of when brexit will just cease to be an issue?
Already it’s gone on for over half the length of time of world war 2.
I reckon it could at least match that event in duration.
And the aftermath of that took a further 44 /45 years to truly drift into history.

Leroy42 · 08-08-2019 07:47PM

Shelga wrote: »

It just makes... No. Sense. Whatsoever. Purely geographically, why would you cut yourself off from trade with your nearest neighbours in order to pursue trade with countries on the other side of the world or at least Very Very Far Away? Why would you buy more wine from the US and lamb from New Zealand (which they already do) when you can get it less than a hundred miles away in France and Ireland, tariff-free?

Can Brexiters not just push the rubbish about sovereignty and democracy, rather than pretending this lunacy makes any sense whatsoever from a trade point of view?

Because it was never about replacing EU trade with New Zealand etc. They were firmly of the belief that the EU would give them whatever they wanted (they need us more...) so they would keep all the trade, keep the EU money, change regulations and get more non EU trade by outcompetiting the EU.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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