Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 08-08-2019 01:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If southern processors break EU single market rules then they are signing their own death warrants.
Can't see that happening tbh.

It's a mistaken belief among the hard Brexiteers that the way to avoid the utter chaos of No Deal is simply to abandon the rules of the Single Market and apply no checks at the borders. That might work for a pirate state like the UK which intends going rogue, but it would completely destabilise the EU.

murphaph · 08-08-2019 01:55PM

First Up wrote: »

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

The bonding idea just won't work for milk. It's about phytosanitary control as well as tariffs. The southern creamery would not be allowed to "contaminate" EU milk products with milk from outside the EU that had not been through a BIP and cleared. No NI milk will be approved to enter the EU on the 1st of November.

Remember, the UK was a driving force in creating the single market and upholding its integrity. It is not something being imposed upon it now.

Quin_Dub · 08-08-2019 01:55PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes but implicit in bonding is that nothing happens to the product.
If milk is to be processed it stops being bonded and is more like the free ports proposed by Johnson.
I can't see this state bending over backwards to deliver this and in any case not in 80 odd days. The milk can't wait till we are ready.

On the free ports: I can't see how Johnson can reconcile creating separate zones where the taxes and possibly the rules are different but won't tolerate turning Northern Ireland into a zone where the taxes and rules are different.

Because it will be under UK rules and not EU rules or something - Taking back control remember!!!

First Up · 08-08-2019 01:55PM

Strazdas wrote:

That might work for a pirate state like the UK which intends going rogue, but it would completely destabilise the EU.

Completely? I think not.

reslfj · 08-08-2019 02:07PM

First Up wrote: »

True, but a processing free zone could be created and would not breach SM rules if the products are re-exported.

The key point here is the need for a UK-EU27 deal. Without the WA there will be no new deals in any area where the rules are now part of the EU membership.

First Up wrote: »

The EU is familiar with how local trade works on its external borders. The Balkan countries were once all part of Yugoslavia and Croatia and Slovenia (in EU) still retain close ties with Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. Romania (in EU) still has close links with Moldova (former Soviet Union.)

These countries all have agreements with the EU and these are used in trade relations.
Without a deal there is nothing not covered by old pre-EEC agreements that wil be allowed to happen.

First Up wrote: »

Of course that won't apply in every case on the Irish border and some commercial supply chains will have to stop. But there are ways to protect the integrity of the SM while also facilitating daily life on the ground.

The WA and the backstop is one very direct way. So is a revoke of A50.

But 'ways' require negotiations and deals. Just will not happen without the WA ratified.

Remember the EU27 will protect Ireland and the GFA. But the decisions are taken by all 27 member states and the overall focus is on a firm protection of the the integrity of the EU and in particular of the internal market (SM).

boggerman1 · 08-08-2019 02:12PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sell them. What else?

Take them to the nearest mart, or a mart a long way away - whichever gets the best price.

How can he sell them down in the republic when the Brits crash out in a no deal unicorn fantasy.no checks on origin of said cows,paperwork,herd number needed down south.them animals worthless down here.
To the non farming people here as it stands them cows are worth a lot thanks to breeding,milk production figures,etc.but if a glut of them were to appear on the market in basically fire sales the value of them would be nothing.the only thing for them will be a cull of big numbers.but hey brexit is all positive no downsides.

murphaph · 08-08-2019 02:28PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

How can he sell them down in the republic when the Brits crash out in a no deal unicorn fantasy.no checks on origin of said cows,paperwork,herd number needed down south.them animals worthless down here.
To the non farming people here as it stands them cows are worth a lot thanks to breeding,milk production figures,etc.but if a glut of them were to appear on the market in basically fire sales the value of them would be nothing.the only thing for them will be a cull of big numbers.but hey brexit is all positive no downsides.

Could the south actually absorb the entire NI herd? Is there the room/facilities for all those cows?

If we are really heading towards no deal then I'd expect a lot of NI cows to move south before the deadline but I imagine some NI farmers would hold out in the hopes of supplying what limited creameries there are in NI or in the hopes of selling their herd to farms in GB (assuming GB creameries could handle the extra milk).

First Up · 08-08-2019 02:29PM

reslfj wrote:

Remember the EU27 will protect Ireland and the GFA. But the decisions are taken by all 27 member states and the overall focus is on a firm protection of the the integrity of the EU and in particular of the internal market (SM).

I'm well aware of that. The Irish border is being presented by some as an all or nothing deal breaker. It does not have to be and I've given examples of where the EU is able to make local arrangements that don't clash with the integrity of theu SM.

Sam Russell · 08-08-2019 02:40PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

How can he sell them down in the republic when the Brits crash out in a no deal unicorn fantasy.no checks on origin of said cows,paperwork,herd number needed down south.them animals worthless down here.
To the non farming people here as it stands them cows are worth a lot thanks to breeding,milk production figures,etc.but if a glut of them were to appear on the market in basically fire sales the value of them would be nothing.the only thing for them will be a cull of big numbers.but hey brexit is all positive no downsides.

That is why I said they must moooove now. If they wait, the prices will drop, and if they wait till 31st October, they will not be able to sell them south of the border at all.

NO deal is very bad for NI farmers. The agriculture market is too integrated NS.

If there is a no deal, then no Irish - dairy, abattoir, mart, meat factory will touch NI produce. There is too much to lose. It will be like the F&M crisis, but without the border surveillance. Remember, we have tracing of livestock.

Currently NI supplies much of the liquid milk sold here, that will be a problem. Not sure how we cope with that, unless we buy up the cows before Oct 31st.

Strazdas · 08-08-2019 02:44PM

First Up wrote: »

Completely? I think not.

It would be very problematic. The EU and Single Market are strictly rules based and especially at all its external borders. A situation where a country of 65m people on its doorstep wasn't enforcing SM rules and sending goods backwards and forward without any checks would be chaotic.

Quin_Dub · 08-08-2019 02:48PM

Very interesting article from HuffPost about why some people want a no-deal brexit.

Basically , they just asked on twitter for "ordinary people" that supported a no-deal brexit to reply to them with why

“No-deal gets us out completely – any agreement will involve EU strategies to stymie our opportunities to trade with the rest of the world because they know our culture is as a free trading nation, not protectionist, and this will work to their detriment.”

“It Would Forced The Government To Invest In Young People’s Skills So They Can Fill Jobs”

“There’s no such thing as a no deal. On November 1 we will no longer be a member of the EU, but Great Britain and the EU will put in place arrangements to deal with the consequences.

“There will be some unforeseen consequences which they will then have to cater for. All of those arrangements will form an ongoing deal.”

The comments to the article are mostly from Remainers , but are interesting none the less

Strazdas · 08-08-2019 02:57PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Very interesting article from HuffPost about why some people want a no-deal brexit.

Basically , they just asked on twitter for "ordinary people" that supported a no-deal brexit to reply to them with why

The comments to the article are mostly from Remainers , but are interesting none the less

“No-deal gets us out completely – any agreement will involve EU strategies to stymie our opportunities to trade with the rest of the world because they know our culture is as a free trading nation, not protectionist, and this will work to their detriment.”

This one is nonsensical. The UK's trade with the EU is worth hundreds of billions of pounds every year. Smashing up all of these trading arrangements in order to "free up" trading opportunities elsewhere is cretinous stuff. You may as well be asking an 11 year old in primary school on their thoughts about how the UK should trade.

Water John · 08-08-2019 03:04PM

Yes, there are EU special arrangements for areas. An area/region of Switzerland in treated as part to Germany TMK. A special arrangement was offered by the EU for NI too but the DUP blocked it. Why should there be deals done after Nov 1st to help the UK solve its problems?

reslfj · 08-08-2019 03:05PM

First Up wrote: »

I'm well aware of that. The Irish border is being presented by some as an all or nothing deal breaker. It does not have to be and ...

The EU27 will not change the backstop - never - as in if and until a UI is taking over.

The EU will not give examples that can later be twisted and misused in other unrelated EU negotiations. Look how Greenland (arctic with ppl 50.000 and part of the Kingdom of Denmark) or Liechtenstein (area 62 sq.mi, ppl 38.000, no FoM rights to perm. stay) were misused in the Brexit debate.

It or, I think more likely, the border in the Irish Sea version of the backstop will in fact be the permanent solution for a very long future period.

No alternative proposals seem to 'fly' - except of course a revoke of A50

Lars

serfboard · 08-08-2019 03:07PM

Strazdas wrote: »

You may as well be asking an 11 year old in primary school on their thoughts about how the UK should trade.

The problem is that trade, like Healthcare, is extraordinarily complicated ("nobody knew that health care could be so complicated") and cannot be summed up in a soundbite, and most people (probably myself included) have a roughly 11-year old's understanding of how trade really works.

Strazdas · 08-08-2019 03:14PM

serfboard wrote: »

The problem is that trade, like Healthcare, is extraordinarily complicated ("nobody knew that health care could be so complicated") and cannot be summed up in a soundbite, and most people (probably myself included) have a roughly 11-year old's understanding of how trade really works.

That referendum should never have been held. The lack of knowledge of the people who voted in it was off the scale.

seraphimvc · 08-08-2019 03:15PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Very interesting article from HuffPost about why some people want a no-deal brexit.

Basically , they just asked on twitter for "ordinary people" that supported a no-deal brexit to reply to them with why

The comments to the article are mostly from Remainers , but are interesting none the less

I honestly jaw dropped when i read the articles. The people who commented in it are 50-75yo people from different parts of England - it sounds like they have absolutely no attachment to the reality as if this is 19th century where england could do whatever they wanted to everyone (ie rules dont apply to them).

Seriously is it really hard to understand if you need X, you need to give/trade something you have for X, and that trading process is regulated ie there are rules involved for both parties in any trades.

The way these remainers put it, is like brexit is supposed to be easier than divorce lol.

First Up · 08-08-2019 03:23PM

Strazdas wrote:

It would be very problematic. The EU and Single Market are strictly rules based and especially at all its external borders. A situation where a country of 65m people on its doorstep wasn't enforcing SM rules and sending goods backwards and forward without any checks would be chaotic.

It won't be. Whatever virtual checks are used on goods crossing the border, they will be re-enforced at Irish ports for goods going to the continent. These arrangements are in place or well on the way.

The Irish border will not be a backdoor to the EU.

reslfj · 08-08-2019 03:32PM

Water John wrote: »

Yes, there are EU special arrangements for areas. An area/region of Switzerland in treated as part to Germany TMK. A special arrangement was offered by the EU for NI too but the DUP blocked it. Why should there be deals done after Nov 1st to help the UK solve its problems?

This area within Switzerland are German and has been German from 1805 and before that Austrian way back. There is a treaty about its status including it being part of a Swiss only CU.

The entire population is just under 1500.

This 400+ years special legacy status is no argument for anything in NI or Ireland.

Lars

jm08 · 08-08-2019 03:35PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Currently NI supplies much of the liquid milk sold here, that will be a problem. Not sure how we cope with that, unless we buy up the cows before Oct 31st.

Make less cheddar cheese! The dairy farmers in the south are going to have to stop drying off cows in the winter months (which is when most of NI's exports to the south take place).

First Up · 08-08-2019 03:43PM

reslfj wrote:

This 400+ years special legacy status is no argument for anything in NI or Ireland.

It demonstrates how arrangements can be made to deal with exceptional situations.

BonnieSituation · 08-08-2019 03:45PM

First Up wrote: »

It demonstrates how arrangements can be made to deal with exceptional situations.

Which is what the backstop is.

54and56 · 08-08-2019 03:46PM

Excellent Article on Raab's visit to Canada and how he's being politely received and allowed to bang the drum for closer ties post Brexit etc but in reality Canada are not progressing a FTA with the UK as they can't see why they should when the likeyhood is in a no deal Brexit the UK will lower tariffs anyway. Why pay for something now (a FTA) which you will effectively get FOC without having to reciprocate in just a few weeks time?

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/canadas-brexit-talks-with-the-u-k-there-are-none/

First Up · 08-08-2019 03:48PM

BonnieSituation wrote:

Which is what the backstop is.

The backstop is intended as a temporary arrangement while the permanent arrangements are put in place.

BluePlanet · 08-08-2019 04:06PM

The UK food industry has requested that it be granted a waiver from certain provisions of competition law in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Producers and distributors, including major supermarkets, are reported to have “repeatedly” asked the Government for a reprieve from rules which prevent collaborating on supply or pricing plans, in order to allow coordination across the industry to prevent food shortages in a no-deal Brexit scenario.

While rare, sector-specific waivers have been approved before, when necessary. It is not yet clear whether the Government will approve the food industry’s request.

https://www.preiskel.com/food-industry-seeks-competition-law-waiver-for-no-deal-brexit/

Waiver for competition law, hmm now how might that go wrong..
Sounds like a major price-fixing cartel on the cards.

prawnsambo · 08-08-2019 04:16PM

First Up wrote: »

The backstop is intended as a temporary arrangement while the permanent arrangements are put in place.

There is never going to be another arrangement as long as the UK want to negotiate separate trade deals and stay out of the CU and SM. The only possible permanent solution is a border in the Irish Sea. I suspect that Johnson actually knows this and is intending to try and get a majority so he can jettison the DUP.

RobAMerc · 08-08-2019 04:21PM

https://www.preiskel.com/food-industry-seeks-competition-law-waiver-for-no-deal-brexit/

Had people half a brain this would be ringing alarm bells - this is the start of a very slippery slope.

Next we'll have the "War Brexit Measures Act" allowing the UK government to throw all Trading and Quality Standards followed by human rights out the window ! "Just like we did in the war!", ( "which we won in case you didnt know! )

First Up · 08-08-2019 04:28PM

prawnsambo wrote:

There is never going to be another arrangement as long as the UK want to negotiate separate trade deals and stay out of the CU and SM. The only possible permanent solution is a border in the Irish Sea. I suspect that Johnson actually knows this and is intending to try and get a majority so he can jettison the DUP.

An Irish Sea border is the simplest to operate but we'll see if it can be achieved politically.

Failing that, and assuming the commitment to an infrastructure free border is upheld, then other mechanisms will be needed. Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements but I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements. If they can be designed to work somewhere like the Balkans, they can handle South Armagh.

prawnsambo · 08-08-2019 04:36PM

First Up wrote: »

An Irish Sea border is the simplest to operate but we'll see if it can be achieved politically.

Failing that, and assuming the commitment to an infrastructure free border is upheld, then other mechanisms will be needed. Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements but I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements. If they can be designed to work somewhere like the Balkans, they can handle South Armagh.

I don't believe there's enough time left to come up with a solution like that. The Balkans is different because the accession process gave enough time to work out the details. Years really. We don't have years. And the Balkans didn't have the problem of trying to implement a solution without a hard border.

Nody · 08-08-2019 04:40PM

First Up wrote: »

An Irish Sea border is the simplest to operate but we'll see if it can be achieved politically.

Failing that, and assuming the commitment to an infrastructure free border is upheld, then other mechanisms will be needed. Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements but I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements. If they can be designed to work somewhere like the Balkans, they can handle South Armagh.

And how do you propose that to be done? What's to stop me from buying a container of chlorinated chicken in NI, drive it over the open border you envision, rebrand it and sell it on in EU? No truck checks allowed for EU bound traffic as it's against the single market regulation. Or heck let's go wild; what's to stop me from buying a truck full of tobacco, reclaim the duty in UK and then sell it on in EU duty free on the black market for a sweet million odd in profit? There WILL be controls at the Irish border and because the "no border controls" was dependent on the WA and UK being compliant to the GFA. If UK goes rouge (no deal) the business in NI is not going to rank high on the things EU will give a damn about to fix; they will be allowed to suffer and the Irish government will support it because the single market for Ireland is way more important. If they want to bitch about that then are welcome to go to their government who put them in that fix in the first place.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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