Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 11:12AM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Have no sympathy for the dairy farmer in the north that voted for brexit.they knew the conquences given how much milk is processed down here.their system of milk production up there is mostly indoor all year round versus down here where we are grazed grass production(dairy farmer myself).at the end of the day they won't have processing facilities ready and even earlier on this yr there wasn't capacity to process milk on the mainland.farmers up north could be looking at 10-15 cents a liter for milk after November.

What's the capacity for southern farmers to replace the northern milk in part or full?

Russman · 08-08-2019 11:25AM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

But with this you're essentially advocating "side deals" and/or "mini deals" that have been explicitly ruled out AFAIK by the EU. It amounts to more cherry picking really. Yes, the southern plants will take a hit unfortunately, but that's part of the (relatively small in the bigger picture) price the EU is going to pay for Brexit. The benefits of being part of a very large trading block still vastly outweigh the downsides.

Imreoir2 · 08-08-2019 11:26AM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

No. In the event of No-Deal, there will be no-deal. There will be no such arangement in place. The trade will stop, and people will lose their jobs. That is why our government have constantly been warning of economic hardship ahead and the growing threat of no-deal Brexit. No one south of the border is pretending that it will all be grand, it won't be.

You can call the EU illogical all you want, but the integrity of the single market is of vital importance to Ireland and the EU. Doing side deals to make Brexit nice and easy for the UK while the integrity of the single market is undermined is not going to happen. If your government decides to leave with no-deal, don't expect the EU to save you from yourselves.

First Up · 08-08-2019 11:40AM

Imreoir2 wrote:

You can call the EU illogical all you want, but the integrity of the single market is of vital importance to Ireland and the EU. Doing side deals to make Brexit nice and easy for the UK while the integrity of the single market is undermined is not going to happen. If your government decides to leave with no-deal, don't expect the EU to save you from yourselves.

Its not inconveivable that a "bonded" system could be devised whereby milk or other products come south for processing and then return north. It would need to be designed and carefully monitored and would likely be restricted to licensed and approved traders/processors.

That is possible but no northern milk or anything else will stay in the south without meeting EU/SM requirements and procedures.

Professor Moriarty · 08-08-2019 11:48AM

First Up wrote: »

Its not inconveivable that a "bonded" system could be devised whereby milk or other products come south for processing and then return north. It would need to be designed and carefully monitored and would likely be restricted to licensed and approved traders/processors.

That is possible but no northern milk or anything else will stay in the south without meeting EU/SM requirements and procedures.

Is that not a side deal - the kind of deal that is an anathema to the EU's negotiating strategy?

Call me Al · 08-08-2019 12:07PM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
.. ...

Logic?
You are talking about logic as if it it matters? Logic isn't compatible with "believe".
There is no logic in any of this! Logic left the building the minute the uk politicians stood in front of the cameras and told their voting public that nobody was talking about leaving the single market. Or that it would be the easiest and fastest FTA ever.
You expect these politicians to start using logic now?
Or you expect the EU to try and solve a problem of the UK's own making for them.

ancapailldorcha · 08-08-2019 12:08PM

Downcow has been banned and therefore will not be responding.

Larbre34 · 08-08-2019 12:09PM

On the 1st November I foresee dairy farmers and agri processors of all types carrying on delivering the produce back and forth across the border and that'll be a real quandry for authorities on both sides. They'll have to block all 300 odd crossing points to prevent it and I pity the man that tries in all honesty.

The people and the natural, established market will dictate. How the powers that be on all sides respond to that, I don't know.

20silkcut · 08-08-2019 12:09PM

downcow wrote: »

The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement

Is that the logic???

So there will be a deal.

There won’t be a no deal so.

Great!

ISOP · 08-08-2019 12:13PM

20silkcut wrote: »

Is that the logic???

So there will be a deal.

There won’t be a no deal so.

Great!

There'll be no deal, but they want small deals...other deals... :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 12:14PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

On the 1st November I foresee dairy farmers and agri processors of all types carrying on delivering the produce back and forth across the border and that'll be a real quandry for authorities on both sides. They'll have to block all 300 odd crossing points to prevent it and I pity the man that tries in all honesty.

The people and the natural, established market will dictate. How the powers that be on all sides respond to that, I don't know.

If southern processors break EU single market rules then they are signing their own death warrants.
Can't see that happening tbh.

MrMusician18 · 08-08-2019 12:16PM

See

downcow wrote: »

Find this very strange wishful thinking analysis of these two interviews (tbh I thought the were both crap interviewees)

The sainsbury CEO was even accused by interviewer of not even believing or acting on his own project fear. He was talking in riddles, that made no sense.

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

Far worse for all dairy farmers is not the actual cull but what a cull signifies. NI will be awash with milk, even a 1 to 2% oversupply can have serious negative pressure on price never mind a 20-30% oversupply. The local milk market will totally crash.

Hard to feel sorry for those that voted leave in NI, when many were simply motivated by the other uns backed remain. If they're own sectarianism puts them out of business, so be it.

reslfj · 08-08-2019 12:17PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

UK pull out of inter-railing scheme

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/british-train-operators-withdraw-from-interrail-programme-1.3980431

That said, depending on what kind of Brexit there is, interrailing might be highly problematic for UK citizens anwyay RE: crossing borders etc.

Why should travelling around continental Europe be problematic. Brexit do not change the rules for entering Schengen for 90 days using your valid UK passport, nor is there any plans - AFAIK - of changing the rules for entering non Schengen countries for typically 90 days

Freedom of Movement for people has nothing to do with crossing borders as a traveller . The word 'Move' doesn't relate to travelling but relates to "move to a new address" and "move to a new job" without any restriction as far as (EU/EEA/Switzerland) country is concerned.

Lars

PS! Irish Inter-rail users will likely have to find a Ryanair flight to and from a continental train station.

20silkcut · 08-08-2019 12:17PM

ISOP wrote: »

There'll be no deal, but they want small deals...other deals... :rolleyes:

That makes no sense they are going to achieve a no deal brexit by having lots of deals.
I suppose typical brexiteer logic.
Can’t see that cherry picking getting past the EU.

Nody · 08-08-2019 12:24PM

20silkcut wrote: »

That makes no sense they are going to achieve a no deal brexit by having lots of deals.
I suppose typical brexiteer logic.
Can’t see that cherry picking getting past the EU.

That has been most Brexiteers stance for a while now; basically the story goes like this:
1) Reject the WA because it's clearly not good enough
2) EU shivering in their boots desperate for any deal will cut a series of micro deals on a per issue basis
3) Due to EU being caught so flat handed and afraid of the crash out suddenly UK will get all the advantages they want and can only cut the deals they want ignoring anything that they don't want
4) UK's plucky WW2 spirit has succeeded!

No, I'm not joking that's their actual idea on how things will play out if you see them get pushed on the matter.

08-08-2019 12:44PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If southern processors break EU single market rules then they are signing their own death warrants.
Can't see that happening tbh.

Yeah the quickest enforcement will be from the processors and their trucking companies not collecting or refusing deliveries.
Truckers aren't going to collect loads they aren't being paid for, processors aren't going to accept deliveries that could cost them their operation.

Some animals might pass over or back for slaughter but the organisation and logistics are different.

First Up · 08-08-2019 12:48PM

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Is that not a side deal - the kind of deal that is an anathema to the EU's negotiating strategy?

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

08-08-2019 12:59PM

First Up wrote: »

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

Yes but implicit in bonding is that nothing happens to the product.
If milk is to be processed it stops being bonded and is more like the free ports proposed by Johnson.
I can't see this state bending over backwards to deliver this and in any case not in 80 odd days. The milk can't wait till we are ready.

On the free ports: I can't see how Johnson can reconcile creating separate zones where the taxes and possibly the rules are different but won't tolerate turning Northern Ireland into a zone where the taxes and rules are different.

reslfj · 08-08-2019 01:01PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What's the capacity for southern farmers to replace the northern milk in part or full?

Milk also flow from Ireland to NI and back.

https://www.thedetail.tv/articles/from-grass-to-glass-the-journey-of-milk

Some of this milk might be replaced by milk from cows in NI, and the milk now coming from the RoI farmers might be driven to a dairy in the South.
Likely very costly in a often low-profit environment.

The UK has announced 0% tariffs for most milk products from 3. countries.
This may well have very unpleasant consequences for UK farming

The EU27 most surely will not change its MFN tariffs in any Brexit context.

Lars

Nody · 08-08-2019 01:02PM

First Up wrote: »

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

The problem here is first of all it's mainly used for vehicles or other expensive equipment not left behind, secondly you are not exporting out the same product you imported which means different WTO tariffs apply as you're suppose to export the same item. However most importantly:

Consumable items such as agricultural products, explosives, disposables and postal traffic cannot travel under an ATA Carnet.

Sam Russell · 08-08-2019 01:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah the quickest enforcement will be from the processors and their trucking companies not collecting or refusing deliveries.
Truckers aren't going to collect loads they aren't being paid for, processors aren't going to accept deliveries that could cost them their operation.

Some animals might pass over or back for slaughter but the organisation and logistics are different.

If I was a NI dairy farmer, I would move 50% of my herd south now, and look to move the other 50% nearer the end of October.

Imagine the farmer who produces 5,000 litres of milk a day and has a 12,000 litre tank to hold his milk. He gets a phone call from the dairy in Monaghan that they will cease collections on 30th October, and he will not be paid for any milk after that date.

What can he do?

He cannot store it, nor can he drink it.

If he was the only farmer affected, then he might find a sale for it in NI, or GB, but he is not alone. If he still has the cows in the north, then he has a real problem because they cannot go south after the 31st of October, so the price in NI will drop by at least 30%.

So what does he do?

08-08-2019 01:14PM

Moving isn't particularly easy either.
You need land and/or sheds to accommodate them.
You need a milking parlour and the associated bits and pieces.

They are stuck.

Imreoir2 · 08-08-2019 01:14PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If I was a NI dairy farmer, I would move 50% of my herd south now, and look to move the other 50% nearer the end of October.

Imagine the farmer who produces 5,000 litres of milk a day and has a 12,000 litre tank to hold his milk. He gets a phone call from the dairy in Monaghan that they will cease collections on 30th October, and he will not be paid for any milk after that date.

What can he do?

He cannot store it, nor can he drink it.

If he was the only farmer affected, then he might find a sale for it in NI, or GB, but he is not alone. If he still has the cows in the north, then he has a real problem because they cannot go south after the 31st of October, so the price in NI will drop by at least 30%.

So what does he do?

Ok, load up you cattle in a trailer, drive south of the border, and then what? What does Farmer Billy Ulsterman do with his cattle once he has gotten them over the border?

reslfj · 08-08-2019 01:30PM

Nody wrote: »

That has been most Brexiteers stance for a while now; basically the story goes like this:
1) Reject the WA because it's clearly not good enough
2) EU shivering in their boots desperate for any deal will cut a series of micro deals on a per issue basis
3) Due to EU being caught so flat handed and afraid of the crash out suddenly UK will get all the advantages they want and can only cut the deals they want ignoring anything that they don't want
4) UK's plucky WW2 spirit has succeeded!

No, I'm not joking that's their actual idea on how things will play out if you see them get pushed on the matter.

The EU27 do dislike all of Brexit and the resulting division in Europe.

But the EU27 has never been afraid of the costs of any form Brexit, as they can easily afford any Brexit. The EU27 is a 5-6 times larger economy, has its fully working SM, around 60 world class FTAs and new FTSs coming online as I write.

https://twitter.com/LarsFJ1/status/1062127976391815168?s=20

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/exiting-the-european-union-committee/the-progress-of-the-uks-negotiations-on-eu-withdrawal/oral/88890.html

Q2563 Chair (Hilary Benn) : One very final quick question from me: Michel, you said if there is no deal there will be no further discussions between us. Can I just check that does not mean that if we are trying to sort out in the event of no deal—aviation, medicines, driving licences—that there would be no discussion because, if you read the papers that Dominic Raab has published about preparing for no deal, as you will have noticed a lot of it assumes that there would be co-operation between us to sort out matters, so I think it would be quite helpful to the Committee to be clear what exactly you meant when you said, “In the event of no deal there will be no further discussions”. Does that exclude all discussions, including on what on earth do we do about planes?

Michel Barnier (Translation): Hilary, we want to settle all these matters in agreement. That is why we are negotiating. Now if there is a no deal there is no more discussion. There is no more negotiation. It is over and each side will take its own unilateral contingency measures, and we will take them in such areas as aviation, but this does not mean mini-deals in the case of a no deal. We want a deal. We want an overall agreement; otherwise each will take their own contingency measures on their own side. That is why I want an agreement. I know full well, the worst scenario is indeed the no-deal scenario.

Sam Russell · 08-08-2019 01:32PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Ok, load up you cattle in a trailer, drive south of the border, and then what? What does Farmer Billy Ulsterman do with his cattle once he has gotten them over the border?

Sell them. What else?

Take them to the nearest mart, or a mart a long way away - whichever gets the best price.

20silkcut · 08-08-2019 01:41PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sell them. What else?

Take them to the nearest mart, or a mart a long way away - whichever gets the best price.

They would sell fairly well down south.
The market for dairy cows is still fairly strong. A ready to go dairy cow that can be milked straight away and is used to the parlour etc is a valuable commodity.
No need to cull such animals.

First Up · 08-08-2019 01:41PM

Deleted User wrote:

Yes but implicit in bonding is that nothing happens to the product. If milk is to be processed it stops being bonded and is more like the free ports proposed by Johnson. I can't see this state bending over backwards to deliver this and in any case not in 80 odd days. The milk can't wait till we are ready.

True, but a processing free zone could be created and would not breach SM rules if the products are re-exported.

The EU is familiar with how local trade works on its external borders. The Balkan countries were once all part of Yugoslavia and Croatia and Slovenia (in EU) still retain close ties with Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. Romania (in EU) still has close links with Moldova (former Soviet Union.)

Of course that won't apply in every case on the Irish border and some commercial supply chains will have to stop. But there are ways to protect the integrity of the SM while also faciitating daily life on the ground.

Sam Russell · 08-08-2019 01:46PM

20silkcut wrote: »

They would sell fairly well down south.
The market for dairy cows is still fairly strong. A ready to go dairy cow that can be milked straight away and is used to the parlour etc is a valuable commodity.
No need to cull such animals.

Unless they miss the Oct 31st deadline.

So mooove now.

trellheim · 08-08-2019 01:50PM

He has to sell them or buy a farm or somewhere to keep them and register them all as ROI animals.

Switching topics - heres the No-deal bookies odds https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/no-deal-brexit

massive assumption by the bookies that a no-deal will be avoided

reslfj · 08-08-2019 01:50PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If I was a NI dairy farmer, I would move 50% of my herd south now, and look to move the other 50% nearer the end of October.

So what does he do?

A modern milk farm is much more than the cows - it's huge investments in buildings, automatic milking and refrigeration machines. It's not just one farm - it's many when talking about 30% of NI milk.

Can't be moved by Oct 31 - 2019 and not even by 2022. Likely such a move can't be financed either.

Lars

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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