Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 08-08-2019 09:37AM

A couple of Dominic Cummings pieces this morning, one that explains for me the strategy in some way of Johnson, and the other taking the mickey with him that he will just be another adviser that will be thrown to the rubbish heap once he is found out.

Dominic Cummings: Why Johnson's top adviser would relish cutting 'dreadful' MPs from Brexit

This article tries to portray him as having very little time for MPs as he holds them in disdain. Seems to me that it points to politicians being a tool for him to shape his version of the world on the UK. Some useful idiots.

Here, he became an expert in running focus groups - listening to public concerns about the currency and working out what messages they were most receptive to.

During this time, he also started to lose respect for politicians.

He told me that very soon he decided: "99% of MPs are dreadful characters and if you want anything professionally organised you've got to exclude them, which causes a lot of trouble".

This disdainful attitude towards MPs helps explain why Mr Cummings would have no qualms about forcing through a Brexit outcome that was against the wishes of parliament - either by proroguing parliament, or delaying a general election until after the Brexit date.

So this explains the position the UK is taking. They want to leave without a deal as this is what he wants to happen. Why else would politicians who has seen the reports and is elected to represent their voters think about going through with it? It makes sense that someone in the background who has no responsibility of the results will be willing to go ahead with this. Add in a lazy PM who is there not to work but to be the face of the operation you have trouble brewing.

Then we have a piece that tries to show that he is not the greatest genius, he is just another in a long line that has gotten into positions of power behind MPs.

Dominic Cummings, the latest self-appointed genius to run 10 Downing Street, is the most deluded of them all

Some interesting paragraphs,

Into the dawn light, the great man strode, ready to do great things. Dominic Cummings, vanguard and as yet sole member of the gilet noir movement, emerging into his new life, where the TV news cameras wait outside his house every morning.

Cummings stomped up his own exterior steps as if they were the establishment he is about to crush. Well, some of the establishment, anyway. Not all the establishment. Not, say, his father-in-law, the baronet Sir Humphry Wakefield, nor any of the extended family, including, to take a randomised sample, the 1st Viscount De L’Isle, the 1st Baron Howick of Glendale or the 5th Earl Grey, from whom the family pile, Chillingham Castle, was acquired. The castle is also, we understand, fine for now.

It’s the rest of the establishment that needs to worry. Politicians, the civil service, the media, all the broken things that were doing such a terrible job of running the country before Cummings came along in 2016 and incinerated them with his big flamethrower of lies. They’re the ones who need to panic.

I fail to see once again how he will have the interests of the people in the working class in his thoughts. As for how it might end for him,

Cummings is merely the latest in a long line of geniuses to run things for the Conservatives in 10 Downing Street. First there was Andy Coulson, whose genius took him to prison. Then there was Steve Hilton, whose genius took him to a life of Donald Trump fanboyism on Fox News. Then there was Craig Oliver, whose genius took him to losing the referendum campaign. Then there was Nick Timothy, whose genius took him to tirelessly writing self-exculpating columns for the crime of accidentally detonating the full holy trinity: his career, his prime minister and his country.

The tagline of the article says it all really, this is what he will do if he is allowed enough time,

"What is the Conservative Party for, after all, what is Conservatism, if it’s not to smash everything to bits and rebuild it in accordance with the 25,000 word blog posts of some wide-eyed zealot?"

road_high · 08-08-2019 09:46AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Forgive me if my sympathy is in short supply for them. We have to remember that 45% of NI voters voted for leave.

Considering that the DUP were the only mainstream NI party backing leave, I would bet that there is a lot of DUP farmers that voted out.

I’ve zero sympathy for that lot- we need to protect our own agricultural production from the potentially ****e food they’re going to be importing from god knows where. We’ll see what they think of brexit then they’re competing with hormone fed crap.

Enzokk · 08-08-2019 09:50AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I like Emma but I thought that interview was deeply infuriating.

He kept going on about how the EU and Ireland need to do more to prepare to allow for trade, when the simple retort is that they already did. By way of the WA they negotiated and agreed a way to maintain things as they are but UK rejected it, now official government policy.

Why would the EU have to prepare a new way?

And why did she not pull him up on his claim that it relied on the EU? How is that taking back control?

And why did she not ask hi what happens if the EU don't 'prepare'. What then? He says they are prepared but it seems only on the basis of the EU digging them out. Since No Deal is now policy, what are the actual plans? He didn't mention one plan at all!

It is a constant across every Brexiteer. They always revert to attacking to EU or Ireland, trying to blame others or point out what problems they (EU Etc) will have. But they never can give any answer to the UK problems.

TBF, why would some farmer in Armagh give a sh1t about people in RoI being unemployed? That is Irelands problem, they are only concerned about themselves.

I think she did well though. The whole piece was about cattle in NI and the impact no-deal will have on them. He was all over the place, talking about how the government will not kill livestock or trying to divert the attention away from the story to the EU. He had his talking points and was trying to stick to it but in the end for me he was just another clueless minister.

In fairness to him he was only at the ministry for a few months before he left when May resigned so I didn't think he would be able to provide much as I have never heard of him before and will probably not hear of him in the future.

The full video gives a better picture of Emma Barnett's work on the night. She was very hard on the ex-CEO of Sainsbury as well and how with the contingencies that companies will have in place will mean no-deal will not be the disaster people fear. She was very good, even if it didn't suit my point of view in that piece.

Here is a link to the whole piece, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5CEJBnSyTI

downcow · 08-08-2019 09:53AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

He was truly shocking. The only positive message I got from him was his opinion of how wonderful Michael Gove is...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159223114590347264

However, she interviewed ex-Sainsbury's CEO who was very good at articulating how the retail sector will be affected...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159225624344403968

Find this very strange wishful thinking analysis of these two interviews (tbh I thought the were both crap interviewees)

The sainsbury CEO was even accused by interviewer of not even believing or acting on his own project fear. He was talking in riddles, that made no sense.

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

road_high · 08-08-2019 09:55AM

downcow wrote: »

Find this very strange wishful thinking analysis of these two interviews (tbh I thought the were both crap interviewees)

The sainsbury CEO was even accused by interviewer of not even believing or acting on his own project fear. He was talking in riddles, that made no sense.

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

Yes because being confident and wishful thinking are exactly what is needed.

Ben Done · 08-08-2019 09:59AM

Did anyone catch BBC Radio Ulster this morning?

I tuned in to hear what I presume was a farmers' representative speaking about Brexit, but he was cut off shortly after casually using the phrase 'the n*gger in the woodpile'..

One would have thought that expression had been consigned to the dustbin of history, and clearly the presenter thought that also, as they cut him off and apologised for it.

Just wondering if anyone else heard it, and who it was?

Enzokk · 08-08-2019 10:04AM

downcow wrote: »

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

It was explained in the first 4 minutes of the video I linked. It is to do with the cost of milk and how much gets sent to Ireland everyday. If there are tariffs then the cost goes up and it makes less sense for milk to be bought at that price, so the BBC has spoken to experts and if the amount of milk being sold is less it means there will be an excess of milk and cows producing that milk.

Leroy42 · 08-08-2019 10:08AM

downcow wrote: »

He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

And therein lies the real problem. Everyone still believes that whatever happens the government will sort of out.

The farmers believe that subsidies will be available. Industry believes that suspension of competition laws, grants, reduction in employment laws, free tax areas etc will sort it all out.

That and the fact that up until a few days ago Johnson claimed No Deal was a 1 in a million chance. If you are a small company, do you invest in additional workers for customs, buy new vans for delayed deliveries etc on that basis? No, you put your faith it everything you have been told.

The vast majority of people simply believe that it will all sort itself out.

J Mysterio · 08-08-2019 10:08AM

UK pull out of inter-railing scheme

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/british-train-operators-withdraw-from-interrail-programme-1.3980431

Another blow to the young people of England. I guess they will have to go to 'Europe' and start their journey from there.
That said, depending on what kind of Brexit there is, interrailing might be highly problematic for UK citizens anwyay RE: crossing borders etc.

downcow · 08-08-2019 10:10AM

Enzokk wrote: »

It was explained in the first 4 minutes of the video I linked. It is to do with the cost of milk and how much gets sent to Ireland everyday. If there are tariffs then the cost goes up and it makes less sense for milk to be bought at that price, so the BBC has spoken to experts and if the amount of milk being sold is less it means there will be an excess of milk and cows producing that milk.

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

Peregrinus · 08-08-2019 10:10AM

downcow wrote: »

. . . As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

I think you've answered your own question there, downcow. The fears of a cattle cull come from people who see no reason to be confident that the UK government will not let Ulster farming go down the swanny. The general recklessness and indifference to consequences which characterises Johnson's current approach to Brexit, coupled with the complete disdain and disregard for the wishes and interests of Northern Ireland throughout the entire Brexit project, right from the get-go, means that such a degree of confidence in the British government requires an extraordinary act of faith.

What measures, exactly, will HMG take to defend the NI dairy industry in the event of a no-deal Brexit and how, exactly, are those measures going to keep the industry viable? Without answers to these questions any confidence that the government will avoid the need to slaughter cattle looks misplaced. Hope that they will do something to avoid it might be as far as a rational person could go.

Leroy42 · 08-08-2019 10:11AM

Enzokk wrote: »

It was explained in the first 4 minutes of the video I linked. It is to do with the cost of milk and how much gets sent to Ireland everyday. If there are tariffs then the cost goes up and it makes less sense for milk to be bought at that price, so the BBC has spoken to experts and if the amount of milk being sold is less it means there will be an excess of milk and cows producing that milk.

But instead of addressing the, quite logical, idea that too much milk will lead to a cull of no longer necessary cattle, what we get is people denouncing 'experts' and project fear.

But it stands to reason. If 30% of the trad goes then there has to be cut backs. Why would Brexit be any different? No need to be an expert to work that one out.

But instead of people talking about the actual practical impact of No Deal, they divert the debate to talk about Project Fear, or EU issues.

downcow · 08-08-2019 10:11AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

The vast majority of people simply believe that it will all sort itself out.

I can't disagree with this

volchitsa · 08-08-2019 10:16AM

downcow wrote: »

I can't disagree with this

I don't see much evidence that they are correct to believe it though. Do you?

downcow · 08-08-2019 10:19AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But instead of addressing the, quite logical, idea that too much milk will lead to a cull of no longer necessary cattle, what we get if people denouncing 'experts' and project fear.

But it stands to reason. If 30% of the trad goes then there has to be cut backs. Why would Brexit be any different?

But instead of people talking about the actual practical impact of No Deal, they divert the debate to talk about Project Fear, or EU issues.

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Enzokk · 08-08-2019 10:20AM

downcow wrote: »

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

I don't know, as you post as well they don't reveal their sources on the show. It could be that they were being sensationalist and taking the word of one farmer who estimated this, or this was actually an off the record exchange where the same people denying the information now were relaying it to the journalists but because the official line from the government is different and they don't want to rock the boat officially and they have declined to be named.

Here is the first piece about the potential cull in a tweet, just popped up on my feed.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159219396713181185?s=20

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 10:21AM

downcow wrote: »

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

Can you link to that...I can't find anything on a search. Probably not showing up yet on google.

downcow · 08-08-2019 10:24AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can you link to that...I can't find anything on a search. Probably not showing up yet on google.

He speaks at length here and is very clear that in his view it is nonsense, scaremongering, etc (and hes a remainer)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_ulster

Seth Brundle · 08-08-2019 10:26AM

downcow wrote: »

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

Who says that their being secretive?
Ask anyone with a knowledge of dairy farming what will happen if they cannot sell their milk - the cows will reluctantly be sold/disposed of.
Farmers margins are too tight to keep the cows as pets.
However, remember that there will be a massive amount of animals disposed of. The meat factories don't want a huge amount cow-meat. So unless the good folk of the UK want tough cow meat, what do you think could end up happening to the carcasses?

LuckyLloyd · 08-08-2019 10:27AM

PeadarCo wrote: »

The point is a lot of people in the UK as so eloquently put by Karen Bradley don't understand and see the difference between SF DUP and any other NI and even Irish political party. Anecdotally I have had similar conversations with some people in the UK who don't fully understand Ireland is an independent country. Nevermind Northern Ireland. And the people with whom I have the conversations would not be hard Brexiters and not even overly interested in politics. However I acknowledge this is all completely anecdotal.

In terms of SF position. Everyone knows their position and its not going to change anytime soon. However it's a perfectly valid criticism to point out their constituencies don't have a voice in the House of Commons and the consequences. However this is something SF and the people who vote for them are aware of and have accepted. Anybody who doesn't agree with their stance is always going to point this out.

Those misperceptions definitely exist. We’re not dealing with the best, brightest and most internationalist when you consider the unthinking base upon which Brexit has preyed. Good decent hard working people no doubt, but insular - the emotional anti EU ‘everyone wave our union jacks together’ rhetoric couldn’t have worked if that wasn’t the case. And that makes it likely that any dramatic intervention from SF would be twisted and used to further Brexit extremism. Ultimately it’s a foreign parliament in England that needs to offer an English solution to an English problem.

From the Irish perspective we must resist any of these divide and conquer noises. Whether that be FF’s Brexit spokesperson looking to score cheap political points; the Sindo looking to stoke fears over the backstop; people looking to beat SF over the head once again on abstention: now is the time for us all to pull together and stand behind our government and the EU. And I say that as someone who has never provided FG a preference. This is much bigger than party politics. Let’s stand united as Irish people and push the responsibility and solution engineering to this crisis back where it belongs: on the Conservative government.

KildareP · 08-08-2019 10:31AM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

No, because in a No Deal situation there will be no FTA and thus the UK will be trading on WTO terms. WTO Most Favoured Nation rules state that the EU cannot charge the UK one rate (or charge it 0%) whilst it continues to charge everyone else another rate.

To do so will:
(1) Breach WTO rules, or,
(2) Undermine the single market (by allowing tariff free access globally), or;
(3) Both of the above.

Enzokk · 08-08-2019 10:31AM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Let's see, the problem is that milk will not be able to move over the border. The solution is to ensure the border doesn't become a problem and there is a solution to that on the table. You are asking why we in Ireland are looking at the root of the problem and trying to solve it there instead of trying to solve it here where it cannot be?

I agree the logical solution is to let the milk through, but unfortunately rules interferes with the logic and if you allow milk to go across the border you will need to allow all other food products and then you risk products coming in to the EU that doesn't meet the regulations of the single market.

So a simple solution to what seems a simple problem, but it is much more complex. As an analogy, it would be like saying the rules of the road says the speed limit is 60km/h. But if you have someone sick in the car and rush towards the hospital, should you be allowed to speed? If you hit a pedestrian because you are speeding there is no excuse for that as the road rules still apply, it is not suspended due to the circumstances. It is a crude analogy, but a simple solution leads to more complications down the road.

Seth Brundle · 08-08-2019 10:34AM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.

I don't think there is a denial of job cuts in the Republic.
Thankfully we have used the last number of years to change our supply chains and processing routes. Whilst not all have changed, most have workable contingency plans.
Do you really think the likes of Diageo have not made alternative arrangements for the milk supply for Baileys?

downcow wrote: »

The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?

Whose logic is that?
If there is not regulatory alignment, then there is a problem in terms of allowing UK milk products into the EU.

downcow wrote: »

If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Why have they not built them in the last three years?

FrancieBrady · 08-08-2019 10:36AM

downcow wrote: »

He speaks at length here and is very clear that in his view it is nonsense, scaremongering, etc (and hes a remainer)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_ulster

In fairness, he is no wiser than the DEFRA guy on Newsnight, after 3 weeks, there is NO plan and he HOPES that the government will sort it out. Lots of milk for the Downing Street cat isn't going to cut it.

LuckyLloyd · 08-08-2019 10:37AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Why have they not built them in the last three years?

Because the UK is not ready for No Deal and is not going to be ready.

Leroy42 · 08-08-2019 10:37AM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

But Ireland, through the EU does have concern and attempted to minimise any damage done by the UK decision to leave by negotiating the WA with the UK.

That is was rejected by the HoC would beg the question as to why the UK were not concerned. The answer to all the issues lies in the WA, but too many in the UK cannot countenance that the UK will not come out of BRexit better off and therefore be seen by many to be far less than what was promised.

So of course the other solution is to simply leave everything open. The problem with that is that Ireland loses it standards and its standing and whilst the loss of jobs is always negative, the loss of an entire industry would be far worse.

Shelga · 08-08-2019 10:42AM

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Why should the EU fix your problem for you? It’s not the EU being belligerent, it’s us being totally fed up with the UK saying it wants a ‘WTO Brexit’ but expects the EU to break international trade laws to accommodate this.

Nody · 08-08-2019 10:53AM

KildareP wrote: »

No, because in a No Deal situation there will be no FTA and thus the UK will be trading on WTO terms. WTO Most Favoured Nation rules state that the EU cannot charge the UK one rate (or charge it 0%) whilst it continues to charge everyone else another rate.

To do so will:
(1) Breach WTO rules, or,
(2) Undermine the single market (by allowing tariff free access globally), or;
(3) Both of the above.

For funzies here's the relevant rates btw; non concentrated milk is 14% (Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter.).

[12.9 EUR/100 kg] [13.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of <= 1%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[17.9 EUR/100 kg] [22.7 EUR/100 kg] [21.8 EUR/100 kg] [18.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 1% but <= 6%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 6% but <= 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[182.8 EUR/100 kg] [110 EUR/100 kg] [109.1 EUR/100 kg] [56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] [183.7 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
That's charged day 1 on a hard brexit but more importantly since UK is not recognized as an competent country for control (takes 6 months minimum as per EU law) all milk has to go through full controls without exceptions so that milk is not moving anywhere anytime soon. To put the above in perspective I know a company that drives cream from Norway to Spain to produce a certain product and then drive the product back up again to be able to offset the Norwegian tariffs and they charge similar enough to EU. That's how much of a difference they make...

lawred2 · 08-08-2019 11:05AM

downcow wrote: »

I can't disagree with this

It didn't get sorted out before the 29th March.

Why should it get sorted now?

boggerman1 · 08-08-2019 11:10AM

Have no sympathy for the dairy farmer in the north that voted for brexit.they knew the conquences given how much milk is processed down here.their system of milk production up there is mostly indoor all year round versus down here where we are grazed grass production(dairy farmer myself).at the end of the day they won't have processing facilities ready and even earlier on this yr there wasn't capacity to process milk on the mainland.farmers up north could be looking at 10-15 cents a liter for milk after November.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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