Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 11:26PM

McGiver wrote: »

They are genuinely the seed of authoritarianism or fascism whatever you call it, and should not be taken lightly.

People who are essentially brainwashed, who don't engage in fact based discussion, who ignore facts and/or outright reject them altogether, who think there is some sort of a conspiracy going on and who "believe" in some sort of an ideology despite all the facts pointing to the fact that such ideology is harmful - such people may be used by authoritarian regimes and/or authoritarian personalities, and it usually ends up terribly badly when it happens. This had already happened many times before.

What it takes is two have a power hungry regime/personality, large % of brainwashed population + large % of population who don't care, someone to blame and typically a serious economic crisis - and then boom and it happens.

I see all has been moving into this direction in the UK. Lack of codified constitution and FPTP is a big risk factor too. And in fairness, the highest risk of UK crashing out isn't an economic one, but a political one. Under right circumstances, the UK could become a US vassal state and move politically even further right into some sort of a very nasty (quasi-) authoritarian country. No one in the EU wants to have another such, likely belligerent, nuclear weapon capable country on their doorstep, we already have Turkey and Russia.

Good points. No constitution, FPTP, a dumbed down population (many of whom are hard right and xenophobes) and a lying, corrupt media is a toxic mix.

The one big hope is that most young people in Britain don't fit this description. You'd be hopeful the current crowd of ageing fascist sympathisers can be driven off the stage in disgrace.

Besides, the UK possibly won't even exist in a decade....we could be down to a solitary England rump state.

Foghladh · 07-08-2019 11:32PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

exactly. A UI will only happen under the terms laid out in the GFA. It's something that would take years if not decades to do due to the extremely complex and sensitive issues involed.:cool:

Are there 'terms' laid out in the GFA regarding unification? Or is it at the discretion of the Secretary of State? And if it is the decision to hold a poll does the GFA give any guidance? I don't believe that it does.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-08-2019 11:34PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Defra guy on after was just unbelievable. No plan and nothing to offer as a solution.

When pushed he said "but they will lose jobs in the south too" :rolleyes:

No solution - just EU has to do a deal because they get damaged too.

BonnieSituation · 07-08-2019 11:37PM

Water John wrote: »

Most dairy farms in NI operate on a high input system, often cows housed all year round. This model is much more sensitive to volatility.

I often find myself poking around the farming threads on here and find it fascinating but I do get lost sometimes.

In this case, what do you mean by "high input"?

prawnsambo · 07-08-2019 11:40PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I often find myself poking around the farming threads on here and find it fascinating but I do get lost sometimes.

In this case, what do you mean by "high input"?

I would assume more feed than grazing.

prawnsambo · 07-08-2019 11:41PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

When pushed he said "but they will lose jobs in the south too" :rolleyes:

No solution - just EU has to do a deal because they get damaged too.

Already started. Aren't Dawn closing three plants?

McGiver · 07-08-2019 11:42PM

Strazdas wrote:

Good points. No constitution, FPTP, a dumbed down population (many of whom are hard right and xenophobes) and a lying, corrupt media is a toxic mix.

They do have a constitution, but it's convoluted and hard to enforce unlike a codified one. Codified one is harder to bypass but it is still doable with a coup d'Ã©tat and brainwashed population. In UK case it could be bypassed by a salami method and we've already seen some indications of it. You basically try ignoring it, and move on, normalising the unconstitutional condition and keep doing this step by step, no revolution or coup needed. It's a gradual slide into the authoritarianism, and most even won't notice.

Strazdas wrote:

The one big hope is that most young people in Britain don't fit this description. You'd be hopeful the current crowd of ageing fascist sympathisers can be driven off the stage in disgrace.

I am afraid they mostly don't care and I would expect them to emigrate as well if things get bad.

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 11:45PM

Foghladh wrote: »

Are there 'terms' laid out in the GFA regarding unification? Or is it at the discretion of the Secretary of State? And if it is the decision to hold a poll does the GFA give any guidance? I don't believe that it does.

The closest example is the Scottish vote, the poll took place 2 years from the publication of the White Paper. The plan was that if the vote was successful Scotland would declare Independence day. But I don't think anyone put a time on how long the negotiations would take.

Water John · 07-08-2019 11:45PM

Boris has formed a pact with the devil;
However, it is understood that alarm is mounting within No 10, among some special advisers and Tory MPs about the scale of Cummings’ influence and willingness to defy parliament.
One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign. Guardian.

Bonnie, they use a lot of concentrate feed bought in, usually from the international market. Dairy farmer who keeps cows at grass would use about .5 tonne meal per cow. These farmers would be using over 2 to 3 tonne per cow. In return the cow would be higher yielding, maybe 9K litres as opposed to 5.5K litres. Farming lesson over.

McGiver · 07-08-2019 11:53PM

sparkling sea wrote:

It's hardly a cunning plan, it just makes sense if they are to put the interests of the Irish people before party. SF could gain a lot of support among non traditional supporters especially here. It's more likely they'll calculate, they may achieve their goal of a United Ireland more speedily if the outcome is No Deal Brexit.

It could speed it up, but not necessarily - and this is not taken into account in the UI discussions. If we assume quasi-authoritarian/hard-right post Brexit government, which is, by all indications, quite likely, they may simply not call a border poll... ever, it is fully upon HMG discretion when it can be called. And they may even ignore GFA altogether. You would expect such hard right government to exercise tight grip over their territories. Direct rule in NI is almost sure for starters...

But I agree that making NI a special economic zone both in the EU and the UK would make UI less likely, because in such situation the reason for UI essentially evaporates - why undergoing the hassle of unification if the economy fares well, there's no border, there's all Ireland economy and you remain an Irish/EU citizen if you wish to identify as one.

declanflynn · 07-08-2019 11:56PM

Water John wrote: »

Boris has formed a pact with the devil;
However, it is understood that alarm is mounting within No 10, among some special advisers and Tory MPs about the scale of Cummings’ influence and willingness to defy parliament.
One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign. Guardian.

Bonnie, they use a lot of concentrate feed bought in, usually from the international market. Dairy farmer who keeps cows at grass would use about .5 tonne meal per cow. These farmers would be using over 2 to 3 tonne per cow. In return the cow would be higher yielding, maybe 9K litres as opposed to 5.5K litres. Farming lesson over.

They wouldn't yield that much more, that system is only operated by lads with limited land around the parlour, most dairy farmers can't wait to let the cows out in the spring even if it's only for a few hours during the day

MrMusician18 · 08-08-2019 12:08AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1159223860149051398

Yeh see what's interesting about this is that it's a very sensitive constituency - farmers - for the DUP.

They won't be happy.

Forgive me if my sympathy is in short supply for them. We have to remember that 45% of NI voters voted for leave.

Considering that the DUP were the only mainstream NI party backing leave, I would bet that there is a lot of DUP farmers that voted out.

BonnieSituation · 08-08-2019 12:11AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The closest example is the Scottish vote, the poll took place 2 years from the publication of the White Paper. The plan was that if the vote was successful Scotland would declare Independence day. But I don't think anyone put a time on how long the negotiations would take.

They envisaged in the White Paper that it could take up to 18 months. The idea was to be out by March 2016.

BonnieSituation · 08-08-2019 12:12AM

Water John wrote: »

Bonnie, they use a lot of concentrate feed bought in, usually from the international market. Dairy farmer who keeps cows at grass would use about .5 tonne meal per cow. These farmers would be using over 2 to 3 tonne per cow. In return the cow would be higher yielding, maybe 9K litres as opposed to 5.5K litres. Farming lesson over.

Much thanks.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-08-2019 12:37AM

Market starting to look short on a no-deal scenario @2.4, not to mention today's current fx of .9250

A talking head on the TVnews said closer to Oct31 it could get to, or very close to parity, even if things so smooth.
If things go bad, it's anyones guess as to what sterling will be.

joeysoap · 08-08-2019 12:59AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Forgive me if my sympathy is in short supply for them. We have to remember that 45% of NI voters voted for leave.

Considering that the DUP were the only mainstream NI party backing leave, I would bet that there is a lot of DUP farmers that voted out.

UTV news tonight. Enniskillen show. Farmers, clearly DUP supporters, EU must do a deal and from a Bushmills farmer Brexit will happen and we’ll just get on with it

No real regrets there.

reslfj · 08-08-2019 01:08AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No solution - just EU has to do a deal because they get damaged too.

When will you understand the EU27 doesn't care for the cost and the immediate damage?

They can and will pay any bill to preserve the internal market (SM)

EU27 members dislike Brexit for the division it creates in Europe.

But the UK has passed far beyond the breaking point. The EU27 will now just wait until the UK comes crawling on some 'warm and sunny' November/December day and asks for a deal - any deal really.

The first point the EU27 agenda will be an agreement with all text from the WA except the transition periods and it must be ratified by the UK.

It will be gloves off. The EU is known to get its way very close to 100% in all negotiations with (developed) 3. countries.

Lars

Enzokk · 08-08-2019 01:12AM

BluePlanet wrote: »

If the WA passed with a NI backstop then NI would enjoy best of both worlds: plugged directly into the UK's economy and full access to the EU. It would be a selling point for businesses there.

However from SF's POV such a scenario would likely set-back a UI or 20-25 years. Not exactly something their going to countenance taking risks for like Fintan O'Toole's idea.

I don't know if that deal for NI sets back a UI. It will all depend on how the UK does outside of the EU. If they struggle, even with NI in the SM and CU pressure will be on to cut the costs paid to NI. So while they may do better and you would think it puts back unification, if the effects on the UK is severe enough I don't think the NI only backstop would delay it that much.

Enzokk · 08-08-2019 01:19AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Latest on BBC news TV is that Brexit won't be as bad as feared,

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49270872

Oh look over there EU will be hurt says another article from them

That is an interesting article, basically it will not be as bad for the UK due to French preparations and procedures. Imagine taking back control only to have another country having such a big influence on disruption on your trade.

The government is assuming that French preparations for customs and regulatory checks have markedly decreased the anticipated trade disruption from a no-deal Brexit, the BBC has learned.

"Reasonable worst case scenarios" still anticipate long disruption to about half the freight crossing the Channel.

For anyone interested, here is a Newsnight link and how Emma Barnett handled the presenting duties.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5CEJBnSyTI

MrMusician18 · 08-08-2019 02:36AM

Despite what some posters here think, the chaos in the UK following no deal, while serious won't be all encompassing. This is simply because the measures the EU has taken unilaterally to protect itself have a side benefit of protecting the UK too.

What will be interesting to see is the sectors that the EU won't facilitate or where no deal planning is limited in its intervention. These will be strategic choices and a demonstration on the iron fist in the velvet glove, so where the EU chooses to put pressure on the UK will be telling.

VinLieger · 08-08-2019 07:50AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Already started. Aren't Dawn closing three plants?

People have been laid off temporarily until the farmers picketing the plants over low prices will allow the plants to operate again.

Cant say for certain if the low beef prices are related to brexit.

lawred2 · 08-08-2019 08:20AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

BBC TV news blurb did not mention the French, showed a carpark somewhere on UK side saying, see because we built this facility the delays to exports won't be as bad.

This car park and examination bays cost something like 15m.. all upside this Brexit.

LuckyLloyd · 08-08-2019 08:33AM

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Primarily because it assumes that there is anything predictable about parliamentary arithmetic in the HOC at the moment. There clearly isn’t and there hasn’t been for about a year. I’m all for having another stick to beat SF with, but this would be an extraordinary risk for SF to take with no guarantee that it would actually achieve anything

Moreover, it places the responsibility (or at least some responsibility) for a solution on some other entity from some other country. Brexit is an English / Welsh problem managed by a Conservative government and the solution to any issues that stem from it lie within the politics of England / Wales / the Conservative party.

O’Toole’s idea is automatically on the wrong track because it shifts focus / responsibility away from where it lies. That’s the ultimate game here too: the Conservative government are desperate to shift the blame to the opposition, to the Irish government, to the EU. They should not be let. Sort out your own mess please or pull the trigger on the gun you’ve pointed at your head, if you actually have the balls.

PeadarCo · 08-08-2019 08:34AM

VinLieger wrote:

Cant say for certain if the low beef prices are related to brexit.

Part of farmers protests are about the cut they get from the final retail price of what they produce. In this case they want more money from the processors. Low beef prices have been an issue for years. However a hard Brexit will make the situation worse.

PeadarCo · 08-08-2019 08:44AM

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Oâ€™Tooleâ€™s idea is automatically on the wrong track because it shifts focus / responsibility away from where it lies. Thatâ€™s the ultimate game here too: the Conservative government are desperate to shift the blame to the opposition, to the Irish government, to the EU. They should not be let. Sort out your own mess please or pull the trigger on the gun youâ€™ve pointed at your head, if you actually have the balls.

Where O Toole does have a point is that NI and arguably the entire Brexit debate in the UK has suffered from letting the DUP be NI de facto voice in the House of Commons. There is nobody there who can challenge some of rubbish that comes from hard Brexiters. I use the word rubbish because hearing some live snippets from the various debates indicates the UK parliament as a whole don't really understand the issues with the Irish border in the context of Brexit.

LuckyLloyd · 08-08-2019 09:14AM

PeadarCo wrote: »

Where O Toole does have a point is that NI and arguably the entire Brexit debate in the UK has suffered from letting the DUP be NI de facto voice in the House of Commons. There is nobody there who can challenge some of rubbish that comes from hard Brexiters. I use the word rubbish because hearing some live snippets from the various debates indicates the UK parliament as a whole don't really understand the issues with the Irish border in the context of Brexit.

There have been plenty of voices explaining the situation in the North. There are none so blind as those who will not see, as it were. The Conservatives / DUP need to solve the mess they have made, not SF or the Irish government.

Seth Brundle · 08-08-2019 09:21AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Defra guy on after was just unbelievable. No plan and nothing to offer as a solution.

He was truly shocking. The only positive message I got from him was his opinion of how wonderful Michael Gove is...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159223114590347264

However, she interviewed ex-Sainsbury's CEO who was very good at articulating how the retail sector will be affected...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159225624344403968

Leroy42 · 08-08-2019 09:30AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

He was truly shocking. The only positive message I got from him was his opinion of how wonderful Michael Gove is...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159223114590347264

I like Emma but I thought that interview was deeply infuriating.

He kept going on about how the EU and Ireland need to do more to prepare to allow for trade, when the simple retort is that they already did. By way of the WA they negotiated and agreed a way to maintain things as they are but UK rejected it, now official government policy.

Why would the EU have to prepare a new way?

And why did she not pull him up on his claim that it relied on the EU? How is that taking back control?

And why did she not ask hi what happens if the EU don't 'prepare'. What then? He says they are prepared but it seems only on the basis of the EU digging them out. Since No Deal is now policy, what are the actual plans? He didn't mention one plan at all!

It is a constant across every Brexiteer. They always revert to attacking to EU or Ireland, trying to blame others or point out what problems they (EU Etc) will have. But they never can give any answer to the UK problems.

TBF, why would some farmer in Armagh give a sh1t about people in RoI being unemployed? That is Irelands problem, they are only concerned about themselves.

ambro25 · 08-08-2019 09:34AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

(...)

Aside, Macron did not want give extension to Brits, I doubt he will bend backwards to accommodate them in no deal, quite the opposite. Calais will have the UK by the balls one could say.

Sangatte (illegals camp) has been quite the pointy thorn in his presidential side, generating plenty of political pressure by the local electeds.

Given Macron's style, I'm tempted to predict an opportunistic, unilateral and rather Schadenfreundish resolution of the issue, through a typically French 'official-but-not' ("someone let them know on the quiet that CRS, Gendarmes and Douaniers will all be on a permanent café-croissant break" :pac:) transferring of the source of the problem to Kent, through the chaotic and highly porous UK border ports.

Then Macron will go tap Johnson for yet another chunk of Brit taxpayers' money (like he did with Theresa, Hollande did with Cameron, Sarko did with (...)) to help take care of the never-ending problem. Hey, if Tories can gain millions of votes and Farage can make millions out of frightening the gullible about immigration, and UK authorities still see no wrong with that, then what is sauce for the goose and all that.

PeadarCo · 08-08-2019 09:37AM

LuckyLloyd wrote:

There have been plenty of voices explaining the situation in the North. There are none so blind as those who will not see, as it were. The Conservatives / DUP need to solve the mess they have made, not SF or the Irish government.

The point is a lot of people in the UK as so eloquently put by Karen Bradley don't understand and see the difference between SF DUP and any other NI and even Irish political party. Anecdotally I have had similar conversations with some people in the UK who don't fully understand Ireland is an independent country. Nevermind Northern Ireland. And the people with whom I have the conversations would not be hard Brexiters and not even overly interested in politics. However I acknowledge this is all completely anecdotal.

In terms of SF position. Everyone knows their position and its not going to change anytime soon. However it's a perfectly valid criticism to point out their constituencies don't have a voice in the House of Commons and the consequences. However this is something SF and the people who vote for them are aware of and have accepted. Anybody who doesn't agree with their stance is always going to point this out.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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