Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Robert McGrath · 07-08-2019 09:42PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

I wouldn't dismiss it or any other option without good reason ? Can you explain why you think it's not an option ?

Primarily because it assumes that there is anything predictable about parliamentary arithmetic in the HOC at the moment. There clearly isn’t and there hasn’t been for about a year. I’m all for having another stick to beat SF with, but this would be an extraordinary risk for SF to take with no guarantee that it would actually achieve anything

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 09:42PM

Foghladh wrote: »

If you enforce that logic then yes she should be pushing the remain line. However 148 of her Labour parliamentary colleagues should be jumping to the other side. It's not that simple

Someone who has studied the rules of the HoC says there is no requirement on MPs to represent the wishes of their constituents. They are merely supposed to represent the general interests of all people who live in the constituency - a referendum result is supposedly to be completely irrelevant.

This point of course has been hijacked by the Brexiteers to suit their own narrative.

BonnieSituation · 07-08-2019 09:44PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

I wouldn't dismiss it or any other option without good reason ? Can you explain why you think it's not an option ?

Because the president of SF said she would not entertain it.

And even if they were to entertain it it assumes it would happen in some sort of vacuum.

It's just nonsense.

Capt'n Midnight · 07-08-2019 09:54PM

Only 741 companies in the UK applied for part of an £8m training fund for companies and trade intermediaries such as freight forwarders.

£8m to cover training for 240,000 companies ?

Meanwhile here back in October
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050774444740882432

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 09:54PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If it is coming from a 'cunning SF plan' it will turn many MP's dithering on the remain-leave line totally 'leave'. It's lunacy too, because if it fails, SF would then pay a price for doing it.

It's hardly a cunning plan, it just makes sense if they are to put the interests of the Irish people before party. SF could gain a lot of support among non traditional supporters especially here.
It's more likely they'll calculate, they may achieve their goal of a United Ireland more speedily if the outcome is No Deal Brexit.

declanflynn · 07-08-2019 09:56PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour MPs who will vote against their whip to keep a very right wing Tory party in power so that the Tories can destroy the economy by doing exactly what the vast majority of Labour party members do not want? I'd be interested in names and numbers.

I would love to have a bet that more Labour MP's would vote against Labour than Conservatives would in a VONC if Labour commited to stopping Brexit. They know fine well they would have a better chance of being elected again even as an independent.

That's easy paddy power 1800 238 888 mate, it's a different number if ur in britian

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 09:58PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

It's hardly a cunning plan, it just makes sense if they are to put the interests of the Irish people before party. SF could gain a lot of support among non traditional supporters especially here.
It's more likely they'll calculate, they may achieve their goal of a United Ireland more speedily if the outcome is No Deal Brexit.

The point is, that is how it will be seen. SF trying to influence parliament. There would be MP's who would commit Hari Kari rather than let them win. Anyway, it's a dead duck, I think Fintan took the huff and wrote an article today portraying SF as a cult or something. Didn't read it yet.

bilston · 07-08-2019 09:59PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

My fear on no deal is by end of the year we could have multiple attacks carried out by an invigorated dissident force

Do they have the capability? If they did have the capability they wouldn't require a hard Brexit or No Deal as an excuse to carry out attacks.

That's not to say they won't attempt some kind of "spectacular" to mark Brexit.

The economic consequences and the likely resulting civil disobedience would be more significant than any dissident campaign IMO. Once you bring people onto the streets you run the risk of losing control of the situation and then anything could happen.

BonnieSituation · 07-08-2019 10:04PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

My fear on no deal is by end of the year we could have multiple attacks carried out by an invigorated dissident force

I'd give you 100/1 on that. Not a chance.

They have no support. And Nationalists can now see the prize of a UI in sight. There'll be no reason to do it.

beggars_bush · 07-08-2019 10:05PM

Even if SF were guaranteeing a 32 county state, a lot of people still wouldn't vote for them. Myself included

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 10:06PM

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Primarily because it assumes that there is anything predictable about parliamentary arithmetic in the HOC at the moment. There clearly isn’t and there hasn’t been for about a year. I’m all for having another stick to beat SF with, but this would be an extraordinary risk for SF to take with no guarantee that it would actually achieve anything

The outcomes of the votes in Parliament have been predicted with ease by most seasoned pundits, it's purely a numbers game ? In fairness, there have been very few surprises.
This could really be the making of SF, it's a calculated risk but they'd have a fairly good idea of the outcome. I doubt they'll move from safety net abstentionism.

Foghladh · 07-08-2019 10:15PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Someone who has studied the rules of the HoC says there is no requirement on MPs to represent the wishes of their constituents. They are merely supposed to represent the general interests of all people who live in the constituency - a referendum result is supposedly to be completely irrelevant.

This point of course has been hijacked by the Brexiteers to suit their own narrative.

I don't disagree. The point I was responding to was in regards to Kate Hoey being a Leave advocate in a Remain constituency. Presumably in that case the narrative has been hijacked by the Remainers?

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 10:17PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The point is, that is how it will be seen. SF trying to influence parliament. There would be MP's who would commit Hari Kari rather than let them win. Anyway, it's a dead duck, I think Fintan took the huff and wrote an article today portraying SF as a cult or something. Didn't read it yet.

If the past couple of years has thought us anything, it should be that Northern Ireland, NI non British political parties are of little significance to large sections of the British public, particularly the English politicians. Also Fintan O Toole's suggests that for the sake of the Irish people, SF candidates could step down now and form a pact other NI remain parties, running 1 remain candidate in each constituency, this would negate any worry of dependency on Sinn Fein support.

trashcan · 07-08-2019 10:17PM

bilston wrote: »

The economic consequences and the likely resulting civil disobedience would be more significant than any dissident campaign IMO. Once you bring people onto the streets you run the risk of losing control of the situation and then anything could happen.

If it's a no deal, and the economic fallout is as severe as predicted there could be trouble in Britain that will make the poll tax riots and the disturbances of the early eighties look like a day at the seaside. Things could get pretty ugly.

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 10:22PM

Tell me how wrote: »

As above, Hoey is a dead cert No deal advocate.

Very true, but she is representing a remain constituency. When it comes to crunch ,she might tow the party line, particularly if it also means she's likely to keep her seat.

Water John · 07-08-2019 10:23PM

When social cohesion breaks down, it's very hard to put the genie in the bottle.

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 10:29PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

If the past couple of years has thought us anything, it should be that Northern Ireland, NI non British political parties are of little significance to large sections of the British public, particularly the English politicians. Also Fintan O Toole's suggests that for the sake of the Irish people, SF candidates could step down now and form a pact other NI remain parties, running 1 remain candidate in each constituency, this would negate any worry of dependency on Sinn Fein support.

But that would be like asking FG to step down and allow other people to represent their constituents, who electedFG to do/not do something.

It's crazy to demand/ask it of any political party. Especially one you go onto portray as a cult and (having since read Fintan's latest piece) sectarinise the debate again, by alluding to SF's political opponents as 'protestants'.

Fintan is just taking cheap shots. He is a fine writer sometimes, but columns must be filled.

BluePlanet · 07-08-2019 10:33PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

The outcomes of the votes in Parliament have been predicted with ease by most seasoned pundits, it's purely a numbers game ? In fairness, there have been very few surprises.
This could really be the making of SF, it's a calculated risk but they'd have a fairly good idea of the outcome. I doubt they'll move from safety net abstentionism.

Why should SF prevent Britain from self inflicted wounds?
Let No Deal Brexit happen and a UI inches closer.

Professor Moriarty · 07-08-2019 10:37PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

Very true, but she is representing a remain constituency. When it comes to crunch ,she might tow the party line, particularly if it also means she's likely to keep her seat.

She's retiring and won't be going forward for re-election.

BluePlanet · 07-08-2019 10:42PM

If the WA passed with a NI backstop then NI would enjoy best of both worlds: plugged directly into the UK's economy and full access to the EU. It would be a selling point for businesses there.

However from SF's POV such a scenario would likely set-back a UI or 20-25 years. Not exactly something their going to countenance taking risks for like Fintan O'Toole's idea.

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 11:08PM

Foghladh wrote: »

I don't disagree. The point I was responding to was in regards to Kate Hoey being a Leave advocate in a Remain constituency. Presumably in that case the narrative has been hijacked by the Remainers?

Given that the referendum was advisory, any talk of what way the constituency voted is irrelevant (which gets Hoey off the hook).

Besides, two whole countries, Scotland and NI, voted against Brexit and are being ignored by Westminster so any talk of mere constituencies and the way they voted is nonsensical.

prawnsambo · 07-08-2019 11:09PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Yes, I have seen that slide. But tell me, how much of the stuff in the first fortnight will effect the lives of the average brexiteer? I seriously doubt the beginnings of dificulty in the UK economey will interupt their party in the first two weeks of Brexit. Do you really think your average conservative party voter / brexiteer will have gone on the journey from supporting no-deal to a backlash against Boris within two weeks? I don't. I think they will back Borris in a landslide for delivering a true Brexit. A year later and the same people might want his head on a pike if no-deal continues, but after two weeks, he will still be a hero.

It's not the hard line Tory or BP voting people who are the issue here. Those ones will go down with the ship or will be insulated from the worst of it. It's the middle bunch who haven't given it a whole lot of thought and just want it all to go away who will suddenly wake up and realise how much they were conned. And that's a lot of voters.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

As for what the EU can do, again I won't pretend to be an expert. While the treaties shall cease to apply once Brexit occures, I am not certain that it is impossible, if the UK gives the EU everything it wants re the backstop etc, that an agreemeent can't be reached which would see the treaties reapplied for a given duration while the future relationship is worked out.

Without reference to EU law, this is just wishful thinking. The EU is a rules based organisation. If it's not in the rules, it can't happen. Not won't, can't.

lawred2 · 07-08-2019 11:09PM

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

Stop please

?

Think you quoted the wrong post

Tikki Wang Wang · 07-08-2019 11:12PM

I like Emma Barnett on newsnight. She is more hard nosed than Emily Matliss

McGiver · 07-08-2019 11:13PM

fash wrote:

That's genuinely very magnanimous - what is annoying is the dishonesty, the delusion as well as the ongoing (and fairly successful) attempts at destroying the structures of civil society.

They are genuinely the seed of authoritarianism or fascism whatever you call it, and should not be taken lightly.

People who are essentially brainwashed, who don't engage in fact based discussion, who ignore facts and/or outright reject them altogether, who think there is some sort of a conspiracy going on and who "believe" in some sort of an ideology despite all the facts pointing to the fact that such ideology is harmful - such people may be used by authoritarian regimes and/or authoritarian personalities, and it usually ends up terribly badly when it happens. This had already happened many times before.

What it takes is two have a power hungry regime/personality, large % of brainwashed population + large % of population who don't care, someone to blame and typically a serious economic crisis - and then boom and it happens.

I see all has been moving into this direction in the UK. Lack of codified constitution and FPTP is a big risk factor too. And in fairness, the highest risk of UK crashing out isn't an economic one, but a political one. Under right circumstances, the UK could become a US vassal state and move politically even further right into some sort of a very nasty (quasi-) authoritarian country. No one in the EU wants to have another such, likely belligerent, nuclear weapon capable country on their doorstep, we already have Turkey and Russia.

prawnsambo · 07-08-2019 11:14PM

trellheim wrote: »

But why bother ? no deal from the tory ERG point of view is simple and delivers Brexit on time as delivered. Like I said if you assume nothing but Tory self-interest - and that's been a recurring theme all along - Hard Brexit is the obvious choice

Only if you believe that no deal is their aim. I don't believe that's the case. Johnson has his bum on the seat of power and no deal will put a very finite lifespan on said bum's sojourn on that seat.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-08-2019 11:15PM

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1159223860149051398

Yeh see what's interesting about this is that it's a very sensitive constituency - farmers - for the DUP.

They won't be happy.

Water John · 07-08-2019 11:17PM

Most dairy farms in NI operate on a high input system, often cows housed all year round. This model is much more sensitive to volatility.

WomanSkirtFan8 · 07-08-2019 11:19PM

maynooth_rules wrote: »

A 32 county Ireland will happen inspite of Sinn F, not in anyway thanks to them. The utter definition of hulers in the ditches.

exactly. A UI will only happen under the terms laid out in the GFA. It's something that would take years if not decades to do due to the extremely complex and sensitive issues involed.:cool:

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 11:20PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1159223860149051398

Yeh see what's interesting about this is that it's a very sensitive constituency - farmers - for the DUP.

They won't be happy.

Defra guy on after was just unbelievable. No plan and nothing to offer as a solution.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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