Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ambro25 · 07-08-2019 07:03PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You have been played mate, in lots of ways. Eu know how but no one on here.

Can I have that in plain English, or are we already on the other side of peak handwavery here?

ancapailldorcha · 07-08-2019 07:18PM

Brickster69 will be taking a short break from this forum.

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 07:29PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

The media are really not doing a good job here.
The Tory's are basically pissing all over the 'Agreement to Extend Brexit ' by wasting everybody's time trying to re-open it.
Nobody is calling them out on this, why?

They have certainly scuppered any goodwill the EU would have for them.

Even if the EU reopened negotiations, the British side would start kicking off again. Within a few days of a new deal being signed, you'd have hard Brexiteers coming out with "None of this is legally binding" or "We can revoke this at any moment of our choosing" and the right wing press accusing the new deal of being as bad as the old one.

If they're seriously considering No Deal as a strong option, they cannot be trusted with anything.

BluePlanet · 07-08-2019 07:29PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brickster69 will be taking a short break from this forum.

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

LuckyLloyd · 07-08-2019 07:33PM

There are no pro Brexit posters here consistently because they can’t hang when the conversation is detail oriented and based on citations / references. Emotion doesn’t cut it, as Britain will soon find out.

L1011 · 07-08-2019 07:35PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which Labour MPs will vote against their party and its members' wishes and vote for a very right wing Tory government and for a No Deal Brexit - thus keeping that very right wing Tory party in government?

Kate Hoey!

Labour in name only at this stage, of course.

Imreoir2 · 07-08-2019 07:36PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Did you see this slide that Sam Coates obtained?

Well it's in Article 50: "All treaties cease to apply". Can't get around that really without an agreement reached under that same Article 50. Which is confined to EU member states that have said they are leaving.

Yes, I have seen that slide. But tell me, how much of the stuff in the first fortnight will effect the lives of the average brexiteer? I seriously doubt the beginnings of dificulty in the UK economey will interupt their party in the first two weeks of Brexit. Do you really think your average conservative party voter / brexiteer will have gone on the journey from supporting no-deal to a backlash against Boris within two weeks? I don't. I think they will back Borris in a landslide for delivering a true Brexit. A year later and the same people might want his head on a pike if no-deal continues, but after two weeks, he will still be a hero.

As for what the EU can do, again I won't pretend to be an expert. While the treaties shall cease to apply once Brexit occures, I am not certain that it is impossible, if the UK gives the EU everything it wants re the backstop etc, that an agreemeent can't be reached which would see the treaties reapplied for a given duration while the future relationship is worked out.

Silent Running · 07-08-2019 07:37PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

I think that this is typical of Brexit supporters. They seem to find it hard to find valid pro-Brexit arguments and resort to taunts and trolling. Terms like "i love democracy" aren't intended to do anything other than to frustrate other posters.

Professor Moriarty · 07-08-2019 07:39PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Even if the EU reopened negotiations, the British side would start kicking off again. Within a few days of a new deal being signed, you'd have hard Brexiteers coming out with "None of this is legally binding" or "We can revoke this at any moment of our choosing" and the right wing press accusing the new deal of being as bad as the old one.

If they're seriously considering No Deal as a strong option, they cannot be trusted with anything.

This will take generations to resolve. Quite a few British politicians have behaved in a shameful way and have whipped up a false division for largely selfish reasons. Traitorous in many ways.

Professor Moriarty · 07-08-2019 07:41PM

L1011 wrote: »

Kate Hoey!

Labour in name only at this stage, of course.

And she's retiring. Wouldn't be re-elected anyway as her constituency is strongly Remain. Walking before she is pushed.

trellheim · 07-08-2019 07:45PM

As a reminder of sectoral impact of Brexit , here's Aviation , specifically EASA/CAA - i.e. regulation. The authors are unable to write "this is a bad fking idea" for no-deal but you have to admire the wordsmithing

https://www.aerosociety.com/media/6797/raes_civil_aviation_regulation_-_what_future_after_brexit.pdf

Today, the UK is inextricably linked with EU Member
States [and some non-Member States] on aerospace
and aviation regulation. If continued UK membership
of EASA cannot be agreed, those negotiating Brexit
on both sides need to fully understand the implications
and likely impact. The process of reconstituting the UK
CAA so that it has the competence to carry out, and be
seen to carry out, those aspects of a National Aviation
Agency’s [NAA] role currently delegated to EASA will
be a mammoth challenge.

(nothings been done)

nc6000 · 07-08-2019 07:57PM

Lux23 wrote: »

Complete silence and then he said thanks for your time. I googled his name and it came up as 'Sales Representative for the UK and Ireland' how on earth does someone dealing with Irish customers everyday not know that most of the island is Independent.

It has to be a result of Ireland or the difference between the north and the rest not being covered by history in school over there.

I've had UK colleagues due to visit Dublin ask me if there was a time difference. I've also had people over from London who were shocked that they couldn't pay for their lunch in the canteen using Sterling.

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 07:59PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

I don't mind them myself and don't mind getting into a debate with them, but they can be rather combative (I suppose it's because they are having to defend a position that is coming in for a huge amount of criticism).

The Brexit debate in Britain is fascinating for this reason. There is a bit of a siege like / bunker thing going on.....they know Brexit is hated but won't back down on the ideology for a moment.

Water John · 07-08-2019 08:00PM

Should have just said the Euro is tied to Sterling at parity.

fash · 07-08-2019 08:06PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I don't mind them myself and don't mind getting into a debate with them, but they can be rather combative (I suppose it's because they are having to defend a position that is coming in for a huge amount of criticism).

The Brexit debate in Britain is fascinating for this reason. There is a bit of a siege like / bunker thing going on.....they know Brexit is hated but won't back down on the ideology for a moment.

That's genuinely very magnanimous - what is annoying is the dishonesty, the delusion as well as the ongoing (and fairly successful) attempts at destroying the structures of civil society.

Nody · 07-08-2019 08:07PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

We've gone through quite a few over the years; the one common connector to date has been that none of them have ever been able to make a coherent argument for Brexit. It's been:

"EU are bullies" (because they refuse to give UK everything they want)
"EU is a dictatorship you can't leave" (but never able to answer why they did not leave directly after handing in A50)
"EU integration is a threat to our sovereignty" (but never able to show how and how it differs from other trade groups etc.)
"EU allows unlimited immigration that needs to stop" (never able to explain why UK did not do this earlier)
"EU rules hinder trade" (never able to actually quote a law)
"EU took away our fishing rights" (never able to explain why they were sold)
"UK will prosper outside of EU" (never explain were they are suppose to sell their goods or why they would get a better trade deal)
"UK will be Singapore on the Thames" (ignoring that they are not part of EU and hence their relevance compared to Amsterdam is very small)
Etc.

In short to be a Brexiteer means you basically need to ignore reality or be some form of extreme libertarian or similar that want a no support style economy and burn the house down to get it. And that's were the problem for every Brexiteer here to date; they simply can't make a coherent argument for Brexit because quite frankly there is not one. Instead they start to insinuate things or start evoking emotions as reason (Sovereignty, taking back control etc.) but without actually being able to put a fact behind them. Or they simply go google up some Brexiteer blog and copy and paste the reasons why Brexit is good (without actually understanding them or able to argument about the reasons listed once challenged on them). This is were we've now ended up with the whole "Ireland should know it's place etc." because they simply run out of anything else to use as a reason.

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 08:12PM

fash wrote: »

That's genuinely very magnanimous - what is annoying is the dishonesty, the delusion as well as the ongoing (and fairly successful) attempts at destroying the structures of civil society.

Well the actual leaders of Brexit are all liars, spivs and / or idiots, that goes without saying.

I suspect a lot of the Brexit disciples are just deluded though, clinging on for dear life to an ideology that has long since been discredited.

First Up · 07-08-2019 08:15PM

Strazdas wrote:

The Brexit debate in Britain is fascinating for this reason. There is a bit of a siege like / bunker thing going on.....they know Brexit is hated but won't back down on the ideology for a moment.

But there is a huge and ever- widening gulf between the politicians we see spouting ideology in the media and the wealth creators and employers who are trying to manage their businesses while the floor is shifting beneath them.

Industrialists, manufacturers, agri-food producers, financial services providers, transport operators and retailers are screaming at Whitehall to think about the consequences of what they are doing.

They've been screaming about it since the Brexit vote and they get a sympathetic hearing (and support) from much of the UK civil service. Unfortunately the message has tended to get drowned out by the self-serving din coming from the political classes.

There will eventually be a price to be paid for this madness.

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 08:18PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The other option?

This is not an option. It's pure madness from O'Toole. It's barely credible. And the sort of thing that if you had read it on here you'd dismiss it out of hand. Nonsense.

I wouldn't dismiss it or any other option without good reason ? Can you explain why you think it's not an option ?

Tell me how · 07-08-2019 08:25PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And she's retiring. Wouldn't be re-elected anyway as her constituency is strongly Remain. Walking before she is pushed.

And the irony is that people like Hoey are demanding that the will of the people be delivered while she ignores the will of her constituents.

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 08:26PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Have you considered how many Labour Mp's will be watching all of this going and vote for the Government. I reckon Labour has more or less destroyed itself.

I would consider a total of 1 Labour MP Sarah Champion would vote with the Government on a No Deal Brexit.

There are at least 42 Tory rebels prepared to vote against the government in a No Deal Brexit scenario and its seems they're beginning to realise the threat of it happening means they need a VONC soon.

Tell me how · 07-08-2019 08:27PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

I would consider a total of 1 Labour MP Sarah Champion would vote with the Government on a No Deal Brexit.

There are at least 42 Tory rebels prepared to vote against the government, in a No Deal Brexit scenario and its seems they're beginning to realise the threat of it happening means they need a VONC soon.

As above, Hoey is a dead cert No deal advocate.

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 08:33PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

O'Toole is running out of things to say about Brexit. I think he may have thought this would get some of viral traction. But he didn't model what would happen if his Baldrickian cunning plan looked like working. There would be even more mayhem in the UK parliament.

Or it might bring more clarity to the situation. Labour and the SNP forming a pact which would allow for a 2nd Scottish referendum is far more likely to cause mayhem, than 7 Remainers who only engage on a Brexit vote.

Beechwoodspark · 07-08-2019 08:35PM

My fear on no deal is by end of the year we could have multiple attacks carried out by an invigorated dissident force

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 08:36PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

Or it might bring more clarity to the situation. Labour and the SNP forming a pact which would allow for a 2nd Scottish referendum is far more likely to cause mayhem, than 7 Remainers who only engage on a Brexit vote.

If it is coming from a 'cunning SF plan' it will turn many MP's dithering on the remain-leave line totally 'leave'. It's lunacy too, because if it fails, SF would then pay a price for doing it.

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 09:08PM

First Up wrote: »

But there is a huge and ever- widening gulf between the politicians we see spouting ideology in the media and the wealth creators and employers who are trying to manage their businesses while the floor is shifting beneath them.

Industrialists, manufacturers, agri-food producers, financial services providers, transport operators and retailers are screaming at Whitehall to think about the consequences of what they are doing.

They've been screaming about it since the Brexit vote and they get a sympathetic hearing (and support) from much of the UK civil service. Unfortunately the message has tended to get drowned out by the self-serving din coming from the political classes.

There will eventually be a price to be paid for this madness.

The culprits are the politicians and the media. Most of them don't seem to have a clue about economics or international trade and are driven purely by ideology.

Professor Moriarty · 07-08-2019 09:11PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The culprits are the politicians and the media. Most of them don't seem to have a clue about economics or international trade and are driven purely by ideology.

It's almost as if they were saying "F*ck business".

Foghladh · 07-08-2019 09:31PM

Tell me how wrote: »

And the irony is that people like Hoey are demanding that the will of the people be delivered while she ignores the will of her constituents.

If you enforce that logic then yes she should be pushing the remain line. However 148 of her Labour parliamentary colleagues should be jumping to the other side. It's not that simple

Professor Moriarty · 07-08-2019 09:33PM

Foghladh wrote: »

If you enforce that logic then yes she should be pushing the remain line. However 148 of her Labour parliamentary colleagues should be jumping to the other side. It's not that simple

But these Leave constituencies didn't vote for No Deal.

BonnieSituation · 07-08-2019 09:41PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

We don't need "balance" we just need knowledge and facts.

And given how this has all gone the last while even the best of us are probably pro-Brexit now!

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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