Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 06-08-2019 10:12PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Forget that crap. That's a Pro-Brexit and Anti-EU publication and tbh would probably be of most use on a fire. :rolleyes:

I know, but it was linked on the thread and I wanted to highlight some of the points the piece raises about Brexit. It is good to hear the opposing side, we have been accused of being an echo chamber here so seeing what is an opinion on the other side is at the very least interesting.

I look at it this way, if the argument put forward has some merit and is not veiled behind clever language or dubious use of statistics then we are bound to listen to it. The argument in that piece was not in any of the categories that made me sit up and reevaluate if there is merit in the policy being followed by the UK right now. So I agree there isn't a lot of value in it and seeing as it is from the 3rd August and has not attracted attention it seems that most have ignored it or others has not seen it fit to share it around.

Capt'n Midnight · 06-08-2019 10:13PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So we go on WTO terms, the same way as the USA and China deal with the EU. It's not ideal but if it comes to tariffs then the UK Government will receive a lot more revenue than the EU and can use it to shield its businesses.

Most UK cars are exported and so will face 10% tariffs.
For generic volume cars the profit margin is about 4%.
You've just made previously profitable industries completely uneconomic.

So you'd need to subsidise an industry for perhaps seven years until there's a trade deal. And there's been very little investment in the industry over the last three years too so it's likely to end up a technological generation behind unless the govt is handing over billions year after year to catch up and keep up.

Even then if/when you eventually get a trade deal it might not apply.

Because it would only apply to cars with more than 50-55% local content.
UK cars are only about 41% local content. And that's not counting the % of parts the UK suppliers import and resell and under Rules Of Origin you can't ignore those imports.

And there's extra paperwork which will add further costs.

In a Hard Brexit the UK car industry is almost completely reliant on the EU allowing the UK to count parts made in the EU as "local content" for the purposes of a trade deal. 60% of exports are to the Common Market. Exports to China fell by half last year.

Meanwhile UK politicians are burning through any remaining goodwill, oblivious to the fact that closing UK car plants and transferring production means more jobs for the EU/Japan/Korea/Turkey.

Rinse and repeat for many other UK industries. Well not so many these days as there used to be.

Water John · 06-08-2019 10:21PM

Bailey is very poor, just says what ever Crobyn tells her to say, on any given day.
Lb will go for a National Govn't if it's limited to a specific, one job, asking for an Ext of Art 50 and calling a GE. That way Corbyn gets what he wants, but it's in the giving of some Tory MPs.

Johnson's plan is simply to do nothing. The exact same plan he has used all his life.

J Mysterio · 06-08-2019 10:23PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Agree. It could spark off serious long term unrest. If that does happen for any reason over Brexit, like any conflict, it will be very hard to get back in a box.

Pandoras box is already well and truly open. Everyone has an opinion and Brexit, and many have a very strong opinion indeed.

J Mysterio · 06-08-2019 10:31PM

Enzokk wrote: »

This is the link that was posted,

Europeans have started to change their minds on Brexit

I will highlight one quote from the article,

So according to this because of Johnson leading the way everything has changed on the continent. They realize that the backstop is a humiliation that cannot possibly to thrust upon a nation. May's deal was actually exactly what remainers wanted, even if they didn't know it according to Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times. Apparently that would have been a close relationship with the EU and a possibility of going back.

I think Ian Dunt put it best for this line of thinking,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1158756738482548736?s=20

The May deal was hard Brexit, no-deal is something totally different and worse than a hard Brexit.

This is UK propoganda. The Spectator is a facourite of the Brexit types.

dresden8 · 06-08-2019 10:32PM

Leo sat beside Mary Lou. That's huge.

Koloman · 06-08-2019 10:36PM

Paschal Donohoe on Newsnight BBC2 now.

briany · 06-08-2019 10:43PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pandoras box is already well and truly open. Everyone has an opinion and Brexit, and many have a very strong opinion indeed.

How might Pandora's Box be closed? It seems to me like revocation is the preferred aim of Remain supporters, but the thing that's not being addressed is how they would "de-Brexify" the country in the wake of that. I don't think there are any plans in place for that at all. I don't think anyone has a conception on how to do it. I think the 'plan' is to put the lid back on and sit on it, while something more terrible coalesces underneath, and then act with shock and horror when it bursts forth once again.

BluePlanet · 06-08-2019 10:47PM

I don't think it's possible to put the lid on it.
They need to out in the cold for a good spell.

Loads of the Brexiteers will blame the EU for their resultant misery, but there are also sane voices among their countrymen that will remember it is they that brought this down upon themselves.

strawdog · 06-08-2019 10:50PM

Koloman wrote: »

Paschal Donohoe on Newsnight BBC2 now.

Didn't think he was great, held the line but not as sure footed as Coveney, gave some of her sillier questions too much shrift

J Mysterio · 06-08-2019 11:00PM

briany wrote: »

How might Pandora's Box be closed? It seems to me like revocation is the preferred aim of Remain supporters, but the thing that's not being addressed is how they would "de-Brexify" the country in the wake of that. I don't think there are any plans in place for that at all. I don't think anyone has a conception on how to do it. I think the 'plan' is to put the lid back on and sit on it, while something more terrible coalesces underneath, and then act with shock and horror when it bursts forth once again.

I think the only way the wind can be taken out of the sails of these maniacs/ fanatics (and their deluded followers) is for them to have their hard Brexit. Once they stand in the ruins, they will know they were wrong.

Should they feel 'cheated' out of it, we'll never hear the end of this sh1te.

This doesnt mean those of right mind should bow down to Brexiteers or give over to them, but im not sure there is actually enough determined, concerted resistance to avoid what is seeming like the inevitable now. People are just worn down and fed up of it. Anything to make it 'end' (of course we all know this will be ongoing).

A referendum at this stage is a non runner I think, not before a GE anyway. A GE might be the only alternative to a crashout Brexit.

It is literally unbelievable how the UK government are behaving right now, they are every bit as bad as Trump, and in some ways worse. Trump is a bit 'off', but people like Gove are clever. Sneaky and deceitful, but clever.

The UK have gone full in on Cummings method now - manipulating people with populist 'us against them', nationalist rhetoric. It was very disturbing to see when Johnson, Raab, Javid and Gove all kept repeating the new mantra: 'the undemocratic backstop'. They will keep repeating it untill it is the first thing anyone (particularly Brexiteers) think when they hear the word 'backstop' (undemocratic). It's Goebbels stuff.

Gove also trying to frame the UK bluff as the EU refusing to negotiate is utterly contemptible, but that seems to be official UK policy now - play the biggest game of chicken there ever was - look how big our massive British balls are. Well, they are risking the livelihoods and welfare of millions of UK and EU citizens, and for what? Nonsense. Very few adults in the room and no saving them from themselves. The longer this goes on and the worse the rhetoric gets, the less you actually want to save them from themselves /rant

Irish Praetorian · 06-08-2019 11:07PM

briany wrote: »

How might Pandora's Box be closed? It seems to me like revocation is the preferred aim of Remain supporters, but the thing that's not being addressed is how they would "de-Brexify" the country in the wake of that. I don't think there are any plans in place for that at all. I don't think anyone has a conception on how to do it. I think the 'plan' is to put the lid back on and sit on it, while something more terrible coalesces underneath, and then act with shock and horror when it bursts forth once again.

Yeah I don't see this particular issue going 'back in its box' unless a duality of issues can be dealt with. Firstly the question of immigration which seems to serve as perhaps the entire animus behind this Brexit debate regardless of what the practical implications will be. Secondly there is the problem of the widening gap between rich and poor which appears to be a problem that has been lingering since the 1970s.

Now the irony seems to be that the voters are left with a choice between a Tory party that might make some minor reductions in migration (bear in mind this is still the party of big business and cheap labour) but couldn't really care about inequality, and a Labour party who might do more to reduce the inequality but would continue migration at a rate which would continually countermand those efforts.

So faced with the problem of not being able to put either one of those issues to bed (if even they could in theory be 'put to bed') the net result is a lot of increasing anger building up and resulting in periodic flare-ups and lashing out. I don't think it's a surprise that the far-right and far-left had more to say about leaving the EU than the parties of the centre and I don't think either Brexit or Remain will resolve much about these issues in the medium term.

Leroy42 · 06-08-2019 11:10PM

Should the UK come looking fircan extension, highly unlikely, Macron will be in a very strong position to turn it down on the basis of 'I told you so'.

Also, seems everyone has forgotten that certain Tory MPs were delighted to tell us last year that countries like Poland were eager to stand with the UK.

BobbyBobberson · 06-08-2019 11:14PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Gove also trying to frame the UK bluff as the EU refusing to negotiate is utterly contemptible, but that seems to be official UK policy now - play the biggest game of chicken there ever was - look how big our massive British balls are. Well, they are risking the livelihoods and welfare of millions of UK and EU citizens, and for what? Nonsense. Very few adults in the room and no saving them from themselves. The longer this goes on and the worse the rhetoric gets, the less you actually want to save them from themselves/rant

Completely agree on this part. And before anyone jumps in, I know how much a hard brexit will damage Ireland. But I find myself wishing the hardest of Brexit on some of them at times.

FrancieBrady · 06-08-2019 11:33PM

strawdog wrote: »

Didn't think he was great, held the line but not as sure footed as Coveney, gave some of her sillier questions too much shrift

Pascal should be kept at home tbh. Not near strong enough and came across as hesitant and sweaty. She asked him to look her in the eye and he looked everywhere but. Out of his depth.

briany · 06-08-2019 11:35PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Yeah I don't see this particular issue going 'back in its box' unless a duality of issues can be dealt with. Firstly the question of immigration which seems to serve as perhaps the entire animus behind this Brexit debate regardless of what the practical implications will be. Secondly there is the problem of the widening gap between rich and poor which appears to be a problem that has been lingering since the 1970s.

Now the irony seems to be that the voters are left with a choice between a Tory party that might make some minor reductions in migration (bear in mind this is still the party of big business and cheap labour) but couldn't really care about inequality, and a Labour party who might do more to reduce the inequality but would continue migration at a rate which would continually countermand those efforts.

So faced with the problem of not being able to put either one of those issues to bed (if even they could in theory be 'put to bed') the net result is a lot of increasing anger building up and resulting in periodic flare-ups and lashing out. I don't think it's a surprise that the far-right and far-left had more to say about leaving the EU than the parties of the centre and I don't think either Brexit or Remain will resolve much about these issues in the medium term.

I'd be interested to know how concerns on immigration break down. For example, a concern over Romanians coming to pick strawberries for a wage that undercuts the locals could be a concern that would be addressed somewhat by leaving the EU. If the concern is more a clash of cultures, then it would mean that they don't really want any more immigrants from places like Bangladesh or Nigeria, regardless of what skills they bring, and this latter concern won't really be solved by Brexit. The UK would always need immigrants unless it became totally self sufficient in the skills that are in demand.

BobbyBobberson · 06-08-2019 11:45PM

briany wrote: »

I'd be interested to know how concerns on immigration break down. For example, a concern over Romanians coming to pick strawberries for a wage that undercuts the locals could be a concern that would be addressed somewhat by leaving the EU. If the concern is more a clash of cultures, then it would mean that they don't really want any more immigrants from places like Bangladesh or Nigeria, regardless of what skills they bring, and this latter concern won't really be solved by Brexit. The UK would always need immigrants unless it became totally self sufficient in the skills that are in demand.

Yeah the immigration issue is definitely more complex. One lad I know voted leave because of too many Somalians. Another complained about too many bangladeshi, others complained about Burqas in the street and tied that to their decision to vote leave.

Farage chose his breaking point image for a reason.

martingriff · 06-08-2019 11:50PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Completely agree on this part. And before anyone jumps in, I know how much a hard brexit will damage Ireland. But I find myself wishing the hardest of Brexit on some of them at times.

The only good thing I see from a hard Brexit. Unfortunately it will be bad for Ireland for a while and I hope there is some help from the EU but I think we have been too reliant on the UK for our imports/exports with so much going that it will be good to spread it around and who knows might be the best in the medium to long term

Water John · 06-08-2019 11:52PM

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

InTheShadows · 06-08-2019 11:54PM

Water John wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

Fair point tbh

amacca · 06-08-2019 11:56PM

His counter part debating him on the question of scottish indy ref did well and she seems sane and reasonable in comparison.....

O'Neill didn't come off well unless of course you wanted to hear his message and don't want to hear an adult viewpoint

boggerman1 · 06-08-2019 11:56PM

Water John wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

It's all they have left.its everyone else fault.nobody is stopping them walking away with no deal right now.UK please f::: Off now

Strazdas · 06-08-2019 11:56PM

Water John wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

The guy is a lunatic. Anyone listening to him would think the Soviet Union circa 1957 has been reinvented. He genuinely believes they are bullies, tyrants, dictators etc.

briany · 06-08-2019 11:56PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Yeah the immigration issue is definitely more complex. One lad I know voted leave because of too many Somalians. Another complained about too many bangladeshi, others complained about Burqas in the street and tied that to their decision to vote leave.

If there were too many burqas in the street, pre-Brexit, there will still be too many in the street, post-Brexit. It would be 'interesting' to see where the xenophobic part of Brexit goes when the number of brown faces and veiled faces doesn't really diminish after Oct. 31st.

A Dub in Glasgo · 06-08-2019 11:57PM

InTheShadows wrote: »

Fair point tbh

What? 27 countries governing in the EU are an oliarchy? What does that make the UK with Cummings / Johnson / Gove tripartite?

Irish Praetorian · 07-08-2019 12:00AM

briany wrote: »

I'd be interested to know how concerns on immigration break down. For example, a concern over Romanians coming to pick strawberries for a wage that undercuts the locals could be a concern that would be addressed somewhat by leaving the EU. If the concern is more a clash of cultures, then it would mean that they don't really want any more immigrants from places like Bangladesh or Nigeria, regardless of what skills they bring, and this latter concern won't really be solved by Brexit. The UK would always need immigrants unless it became totally self sufficient in the skills that are in demand.

That is very much the rub, and I suspect a lot of people who spoke about how Brexit was going to do a lot to reduce immigration were lying through their teeth to people who believed them. Instead, as we've seen from even tentative trade talks, this new 'global' Britain is going to be a lot more open than EU membership entailed.

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 12:03AM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What? 27 countries governing in the EU are an oliarchy? What does that make the UK with Cummings / Johnson / Gove tripartite?

This is nuts...is he talking about the European Commission or the EU Council? Given that the Council has 28 members, it's impossible to see how it could be an oligarchy.....that's far bigger than the UK cabinet

BobbyBobberson · 07-08-2019 12:04AM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Watch the Brexit: Behind Closed Doors programme/documentary and you'll see that they're quite aware of what they're dealing with. It's a good watch!

It is a brilliant watched, I loved it.

briany · 07-08-2019 12:09AM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

That is very much the rub, and I suspect a lot of people who spoke about how Brexit was going to do a lot to reduce immigration were lying through their teeth to people who believed them. Instead, as we've seen from even tentative trade talks, this new 'global' Britain is going to be a lot more open than EU membership entailed.

That's would be extremely disappointing for the people who not only want immigration to stop, but also severely reduce the number of immigrants already present.

Irish Praetorian · 07-08-2019 12:20AM

briany wrote: »

That's would be extremely disappointing for the people who not only want immigration to stop, but also severely reduce the number of immigrants already present.

I would be a little more worried about the effects at a more fundamental level. Think of it - you've spent decades being on the political margins and now are apparently the centre of attention; Brexit is 'the will of the people' and is apparently all things to all people. Somehow, it's going to manage to reconcile the white working class with more traditional views and the migrant communities looking for easier family reunification; to lower house prices whilst ensuring pensioners still have a stable nest egg to retire on; to bring back industries lost to the vagaries of the new global economy whilst at the same time breaking the 'protectionist shackles' of the EU.

But of course it can't - and so whether Brexit goes through or Remain reasserts itself, eventually you're going to have a significant body of disaffected and disappointed people for whom the political system offers no resource. Where they might turn next is what frightens me and whether a new period is coming, new 'Years of Lead' or even just revived struggle in 'frozen conflicts' like Northern Ireland, all of these things should concern us.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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